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Will the 2021 festival go ahead?


JoeyT
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Glastonbury 2021   

434 members have voted

  1. 1. Following the Oxford Vaccine news will it go ahead?

    • Yes - I 100% believe
      43
    • Yes - I think so but not close to 100%. Need to see how the roll out progresses.
      158
    • Maybe - I'm 50/50
      87
    • Unlikely - Even with the latest news I think it's unlikely to take place
      79
    • No - The vaccine news is great but I can't see 200k people being allowed at Worthy Farm in June.
      67


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1 minute ago, Wooderson said:

Tonnes of unknowns here. For one of the largest events in the world to proceed without due deference to these risks (human and commercial) strikes me as a bit mad.

Recognise i'm in the tiny minority on this forum where it appears the general trend is to express utter confidence until told otherwise.

Could be an Irish thing that my reaction is to be a little more sanguine Neil.

😉

 

Putting my part-time immunologist, virologist, epidemiologist hat on - COVID just won't be much of a 'thing' by next summer in the UK / Europe. It's probably endemic now already. It's not to say Governments won't continue to make bizarre decisions, but virus outbreaks don't last years - SARS 1 lasted about 8 months (obviously a significantly less impactful disease).

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38 minutes ago, Wooderson said:

From lockdown to largest greenfield festival on the planet, free of not only masks but also insurance, in 6 months. Hmmmm.

As always, in admiration of the positivity and grit on this thread.

I agree that it's definitely going to be a tight turnaround time and basically nothing can go wrong if it's to happen. 

I think if we're on the positive timeline there will still be some sort of mask wearing requirement, if only to look like they're doing something rather then it actually being effective.

 

I'm so confident about August Festivals happening though I've booked my Airbnb for the night before!

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1 hour ago, Old_Johno said:

I thought last years was going ahead so I’m a bad barometer.

there is however zero funding in the budget for covid support post April so by that token businesses will be on their own, and presumably allowed to do business. 

Yesterday was a Spending Review and not a Budget.

That sort of fiscal support policy comes under the Budget.

Edited by Copperface
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I think the only thing that could make Glastonbury less likely than other festivals is actually it’s strength, as in despite what Michael says, they could probably just about manage if it didn’t happen again. It might be that the risk that they have to cancel and lose money is not worth just not making any money and just struggle on to 2022.

Many other festivals have a much tougher choice, unless festivals are illegal next summer then many will have to try to make them work, by hook or by crock, through testing or whatever it may be, or they will simply cease to exist anymore.

Its kind of fight or flight. I don’t have a clue about the finances of Benn/Festival Republic/Giddings, maybe they could also survive another year, but as predominantly businessmen I can’t imagine they’ll leave any stone unturned in order to actually try and generate some profit next year.  

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1 hour ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I think the only thing that could make Glastonbury less likely than other festivals is actually it’s strength, as in despite what Michael says, they could probably just about manage if it didn’t happen again. It might be that the risk that they have to cancel and lose money is not worth just not making any money and just struggle on to 2022.

Many other festivals have a much tougher choice, unless festivals are illegal next summer then many will have to try to make them work, by hook or by crock, through testing or whatever it may be, or they will simply cease to exist anymore.

Its kind of fight or flight. I don’t have a clue about the finances of Benn/Festival Republic/Giddings, maybe they could also survive another year, but as predominantly businessmen I can’t imagine they’ll leave any stone unturned in order to actually try and generate some profit next year.  

Someone said it earlier. If download is on, Glastonbury will be. 

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17 hours ago, crazyfool1 said:

But we don’t wear them outside .... can’t see them being mandated outside when restrictions are being loosened ... possibly might be suggested for smaller indoor venues 

This is why I can't quite share the confidence found in this thread. The UK government have completed f*cked their response to COVID, to the extent that I have no confidence in the legitimacy of their announcements about the future. Look at the vast majority of their forecasts from early-mid 2020 and hardly any of them have materialised.

The way to handle the virus pre-vaccine isn't a secret. Today, the Australian state of Victoria celebrates 28 days of no new cases, or two complete cycles of the virus. We've basically eliminated it here, something we were told was all but impossible. How? The state went into complete lockdown including curfews, mandatory masks everywhere, and so on. It was tough, but it worked.

So for all the UK government's pronouncements about life after Easter, given their record I'll believe it when I see it.

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It would seem unlikely now. We would need either a certified vaccine program or a certified testing program and enough artists willing to play. None of the above seems likely.

Things may change. I do fucking hope so.

This was last year (for four more weeks)

 

 

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19 hours ago, Wooderson said:

Tonnes of unknowns here. For one of the largest events in the world to proceed without due deference to these risks (human and commercial) strikes me as a bit mad.

Recognise i'm in the tiny minority on this forum where it appears the general trend is to express utter confidence until told otherwise.

Could be an Irish thing that my reaction is to be a little more sanguine Neil.

😉

but the risks should have gone by the time of the festival. That's not an irrelevance!

That's dependent on the vaccine roll out of course, but currently we've got Hancock saying things should return to normal by around Easter which gives a fair bit of leeway.

Without cancellation insurance it's going to take a leap of faith by any festival organiser, but there's good reasons now why a festival organiser might take that risk. Things do look hopeful.

If nothing else, I reckon Glasto will be prepared to hold out as late as possible before cancelling (if it's going to cancel), because the longer it leaves it the more likely it is to be able to go ahead.

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2 hours ago, kalifire said:

This is why I can't quite share the confidence found in this thread. The UK government have completed f*cked their response to COVID, to the extent that I have no confidence in the legitimacy of their announcements about the future. Look at the vast majority of their forecasts from early-mid 2020 and hardly any of them have materialised.

The way to handle the virus pre-vaccine isn't a secret. Today, the Australian state of Victoria celebrates 28 days of no new cases, or two complete cycles of the virus. We've basically eliminated it here, something we were told was all but impossible. How? The state went into complete lockdown including curfews, mandatory masks everywhere, and so on. It was tough, but it worked.

So for all the UK government's pronouncements about life after Easter, given their record I'll believe it when I see it.

the UK govt has got just about everything wrong.

That doesn't necessarily mean the NZ / Oz type of response would have worked for the UK. We have daily interconnections in the way that NZ / Oz don't, with 15,000 trucks plus drivers each day to ensure we don't starve.

One thing the UK govt does have a decent record with is mass roll-outs of vaccines. I won't go perfectly - nothing does - but it shouldn't be a humongous fuck-up.

It's all about the timings now, including any advance notice the govt can give for when things can formally restart in a normal way.

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just opened the weekly edition of the subscription music biz newsletter I get ... and it has this as the first bit of the gossipy bit...

Quote

Will Glastonbury Festival go ahead next year? Still no confirmation from the Eavis family. Putting the festival on is a huge logistical challenge at the best of times, so each week without that confirmation makes it less likely to happen before 2022.

Seems an odd thing for them to include, tho I guess they have done for a reason. I guess someone or some part of the music biz is getting itchy about a possible lost income stream.

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13 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

just opened the weekly edition of the subscription music biz newsletter I get ... and it has this as the first bit of the gossipy bit...

Seems an odd thing for them to include, tho I guess they have done for a reason. I guess someone or some part of the music biz is getting itchy about a possible lost income stream.

The reality is that we are more than 7 months off gatherings of a quarter of a million, vaccines and testing acknowledged.

With a very heavy heart I'm tending to think there is no chance.

It breaks my heart to say that.

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3 hours ago, bamber said:

It would seem unlikely now. We would need either a certified vaccine program or a certified testing program and enough artists willing to play. None of the above seems likely.

Things may change. I do fucking hope so.

Vaccinations are literally about to start in the next 2 weeks or so....

Testing won't be far behind. As soon as private companies see the vaccine rolled out thus future lockdowns not required they will put their hands in pockets and throw cash at testing.

You seriously think artists wouldn't be willing to play? Majority of artists have had their income stream cut off due to the pandemic I can't see them not playing with 6 months of vaccinations and likely testing in play...

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1 minute ago, JoeyT said:

Vaccinations are literally about to start in the next 2 weeks or so....

Testing won't be far behind. As soon as private companies see the vaccine rolled out thus future lockdowns not required they will put their hands in pockets and throw cash at testing.

You seriously think artists wouldn't be willing to play? Majority of artists have had their income stream cut off due to the pandemic I can't see them not playing with 6 months of vaccinations and likely testing in play...

I honestly hope you are right. However the vaccines will be be prioritised for key workers and the elderly initially. That will start from January through spring. I don't think 60 million will be jabbed by late June and without that there will be no festival. The only hope is testing and that has not gone well so far either,

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2 minutes ago, bamber said:

I honestly hope you are right. However the vaccines will be be prioritised for key workers and the elderly initially. That will start from January through spring. I don't think 60 million will be jabbed by late June and without that there will be no festival. The only hope is testing and that has not gone well so far either,

They will not require the entire population to be vaccinated for festivals to go ahead. That’s ludicrous.

If that was the case we’d go into lockdown every flu season.

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9 minutes ago, bamber said:

I honestly hope you are right. However the vaccines will be be prioritised for key workers and the elderly initially. That will start from January through spring. I don't think 60 million will be jabbed by late June and without that there will be no festival. The only hope is testing and that has not gone well so far either,

And that’s the only people that need the vaccine! Those who are vulnerable or in the face of it everyday.  Yeah I’ve no doubt that others will get it further down the line but much like the flu vaccination the cost could come out of your own pocket.

Glastonbury isn’t going ahead on the premise that everyone is vaccinated.  I doubt it’ll even require tests by then either.  
 

Next week we can all head back to those crowded shopping centres all mingling together and by the summer outside we’ll be doing the same.

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24 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

What I find weird about this thread is the high levels of certainty expressed on both sides. I'm leaning gently towards it will happen, but am pretty solidly in the camp of "We just don't know yet". I think it probably will. I don't see how people can say it definitely will or won't.

Yeah this. I, leaning towards it happening myself just on the basis that politically i dont think social distancing past Easter is feasiable

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