Will the 2021 festival go ahead?

[mike46]

1 minute ago, Jcatley said:

I think that’s a pretty good summarisation on the current state of play.

 

In my head, I think we will be in a position in June where the festival could have gone ahead, but there will be too much doubt in March/April. So the plug will be pulled. At least we will have some form of festival season hopefully 

This is currently my outlook - I think come the last weekend in June we’ll be in a position where the festival might have been able to feasibly happen, but unfortunately the decision isn’t made on the Tuesday before gates open and the reality is that when the decision has to be made, it just won’t be able to go ahead in 2021. 

I’m still not entirely convinced there won’t be some attempt to move it to September but I think that’s definitely blind optimism on my behalf than reality. 
 

The good news is, I am confident that next summer will look very different. We’re still planning for small-scale events in April (although I think that’ll go to May) so we should see some gigs at least next summer 

[Leyrulion]

14 minutes ago, Jcatley said:

 

In my head, I think we will be in a position in June where the festival could have gone ahead, but there will be too much doubt in March/April

I think there's a lot of indicators that January is going to be a decision point for them. 

And I had previously said that it would be a tentative go with an abort in April if necessary but the mood music seems to be that without the insurance being sorted that's not going to happen.

 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

January does seem rather early for a self imposed deadline, but I guess they have their reasons for that.

The problem is the Government isn’t going to just underwrite insurance for the entire industry if there is a relatively high risk of needing to pay out on it. They won’t reasonably be in a position to understand that risk until probably March on the assumption The Oxford vaccine gets approved.

I also believe that the festival would likely be fine to go ahead in June, but I can’t see any hope of any sort of insurance cover being offered until probably at most three months before.

There still must be some costs the festival would have to bear, or some issues that aren’t immediately clear to us that would make waiting until March/April unviable. 

[dentalplan]

12 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

January does seem rather early for a self imposed deadline, but I guess they have their reasons for that.

The problem is the Government isn’t going to just underwrite insurance for the entire industry if there is a relatively high risk of needing to pay out on it. They won’t reasonably be in a position to understand that risk until probably March on the assumption The Oxford vaccine gets approved.

I also believe that the festival would likely be fine to go ahead in June, but I can’t see any hope of any sort of insurance cover being offered until probably at most three months before.

There still must be some costs the festival would have to bear, or some issues that aren’t immediately clear to us that would make waiting until March/April unviable. 

I read an interview with a metal festival booker in Europe saying that January is when most of the June major festivals and tours are gonna decide if they can commit to it or not. For its sheer size, January seems almost late for Glastonbury to make a decision.

[Leyrulion]

2 hours ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

January does seem rather early for a self imposed deadline, but I guess they have their reasons for that.

The problem is the Government isn’t going to just underwrite insurance for the entire industry if there is a relatively high risk of needing to pay out on it. They won’t reasonably be in a position to understand that risk until probably March on the assumption The Oxford vaccine gets approved.

I also believe that the festival would likely be fine to go ahead in June, but I can’t see any hope of any sort of insurance cover being offered until probably at most three months before.

There still must be some costs the festival would have to bear, or some issues that aren’t immediately clear to us that would make waiting until March/April unviable. 

I'm still hopeful that they'll be telling us in late Jan that they're hopeful and pushing on to start organising. But if the whole country is back in lockdown by then I'm doubtful. 

 

[Lycra]

6 hours ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

January does seem rather early for a self imposed deadline, but I guess they have their reasons for that.

The problem is the Government isn’t going to just underwrite insurance for the entire industry if there is a relatively high risk of needing to pay out on it. They won’t reasonably be in a position to understand that risk until probably March on the assumption The Oxford vaccine gets approved.

I also believe that the festival would likely be fine to go ahead in June, but I can’t see any hope of any sort of insurance cover being offered until probably at most three months before.

There still must be some costs the festival would have to bear, or some issues that aren’t immediately clear to us that would make waiting until March/April unviable. 

To make matters worse there is the emerging and credible theory that spread of the new covid variant is being driven by the young. Originally covid was much less prevalent within this age group but there is a growing concern that the new mutation is adept at infecting them. If this is indeed the case vaccinating just the oldies will not be enough for a return to normal.

Edited December 22, 2020 by Lycra

[eFestivals]

7 hours ago, Leyrulion said:

I think there's a lot of indicators that January is going to be a decision point for them. 

my own take is that January is the 'ideal' latest point to make a decision, rather than the 'actual' latest point - meaning that it gets more expensive/difficult/rushed to put together after January, but not impossible.

So they might hold out beyond January.

[Lycra]

35 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

my own take is that January is the 'ideal' latest point to make a decision, rather than the 'actual' latest point - meaning that it gets more expensive/difficult/rushed to put together after January, but not impossible.

So they might hold out beyond January.

We've only got to look at the history of the epidemic to know suppressing it is a hard slow process. It will be the same even with vaccines available. GFL will be aware of this and I believe they will make an early call.

[Copperface]

10 hours ago, Paul ™ said:

Yes on their official forum, a week or so ago. 

Linky

Great thanks. Presume that that is in case of a clash with Bloodstock.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, Lycra said:

We've only got to look at the history of the epidemic to know suppressing it is a hard slow process. It will be the same even with vaccines available. GFL will be aware of this and I believe they will make an early call.

I think you're probably right, although I think the lack of action from govt about insurance will be at the core of that decision.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

We still have no idea what the governments approach is going to be though. Even the scientists have said even with the vaccine(s) it isn’t going anywhere, but vaccinating x% will cut deaths to flu levels. That may be all they’re concerned about and the key metric they take notice of when it comes to restrictions. If it spreads rapidly between the young, but deaths remain at flu levels, are they likely to care? The answer is none of us know yet.

[Paul ™]

26 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Great thanks. Presume that that is in case of a clash with Bloodstock.

Yeah Bearded needs the site for around 3 weeks. So do Bloodstock, so there's a huge overlapping period if either are able to go ahead. 

[eFestivals]

7 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

We still have no idea what the governments approach is going to be though. Even the scientists have said even with the vaccine(s) it isn’t going anywhere, but vaccinating x% will cut deaths to flu levels. That may be all they’re concerned about and the key metric they take notice of when it comes to restrictions. If it spreads rapidly between the young, but deaths remain at flu levels, are they likely to care? The answer is none of us know yet.

My take is that they won't care if the deaths are around flu levels - although NHS capacity might need to be upgraded to cope with both flu and covid in winter.

And I think the govt are going to put extra efforts into vaccinations so we might get to that lower level sooner than we're all thinking (particularly if the virus lessens as we get towards summer).

Add in those raving right tory MPs, and I'm still pretty hopeful that the covid situation will be good enough for plenty of festivals including some big ones to be able to take place.

I'm much less confident Glastonbury will be one of them, since Emily said she'll only push ahead on the sure bet of not losing (via insurance).

[zahidf]

13 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

My take is that they won't care if the deaths are around flu levels - although NHS capacity might need to be upgraded to cope with both flu and covid in winter.

And I think the govt are going to put extra efforts into vaccinations so we might get to that lower level sooner than we're all thinking (particularly if the virus lessens as we get towards summer).

Add in those raving right tory MPs, and I'm still pretty hopeful that the covid situation will be good enough for plenty of festivals including some big ones to be able to take place.

I'm much less confident Glastonbury will be one of them, since Emily said she'll only push ahead on the sure bet of not losing (via insurance).

Thats my take. The raving loony tories arent happy about the current tier 4 in london for example

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

21 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

My take is that they won't care if the deaths are around flu levels - although NHS capacity might need to be upgraded to cope with both flu and covid in winter.

And I think the govt are going to put extra efforts into vaccinations so we might get to that lower level sooner than we're all thinking (particularly if the virus lessens as we get towards summer).

Add in those raving right tory MPs, and I'm still pretty hopeful that the covid situation will be good enough for plenty of festivals including some big ones to be able to take place.

I'm much less confident Glastonbury will be one of them, since Emily said she'll only push ahead on the sure bet of not losing (via insurance).

Yeah I pretty much agree. I take my steer from the summer, of course levels in the summer were significantly lower so you can’t directly compare, but there was a massive drive to get us out and about with things like eat out to help out etc. Covid was still about and if you caught it then the risk to you personally was the same as it is now, you could be hospitalised and it could kill you, irrespective of age. So they’re not worried about there being zero risk from it. If vaccinating the 25% of the population does indeed cut deaths by 99%, personally I think that’s all they’ll care about, and continued spread amongst the less vulnerable won’t concern then.

At that point the risk will be transferred to us as individuals. I know there are considerations about long Covid etc, but I don’t expect the government to care about that in terms of their thinking with restrictions and ultimately that is where the personal risk element comes in

If festivals are the last thing to go ahead because of government concerns about long term health, that means everything else is largely back to normal. Individuals would have the choice to avoid festivals, and the risk of festivals happening to the wider population would be absolutely tiny against the backdrop of everyone pretty much living their normal lives anyway, so it would make little sense for them not to be happening.

Edited December 22, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[Old_Johno]

Just imagining the chair w*nker brigade setting up a 2m cordon around themselves in front of the pyramid stage.. stuff of nightmares 

[tigger123]

3 minutes ago, Old_Johno said:

Just imagining the chair w*nker brigade setting up a 2m cordon around themselves in front of the pyramid stage.. stuff of nightmares 

Oh my god don’t, that’s a horrible thought!! When will this shit end??!!

[Joshuwarr]

8 hours ago, Leyrulion said:

I'm still hopeful that they'll be telling us in late Jan that they're hopeful and pushing on to start organising. But if the whole country is back in lockdown by then I'm doubtful. 

 

To be honest I'd be less hopeful if we are not in a national lockdown. The virus is spreading at a terrifying rate (where I live its 714 per 100,000) and this will soo be the case in other parts of the country. The tier system is not working so I think we need to lock down in a way that was similar to the harsh lockdown in March.

That way we can curb the spread and focus solely on the vaccination rollout which I think would give the summer a fighting chance.

[Gnomicide]

31 minutes ago, Old_Johno said:

Just imagining the chair w*nker brigade setting up a 2m cordon around themselves in front of the pyramid stage.. stuff of nightmares 

Got my order in.

[xxialac]

The reason I think sadly that G won't go ahead is that the decision will be taken absent of any meaningful government support and at a time when the virus is raging our of control.

The festival itself will take place when everything is far, far better and will be a wrench to see others go ahead that didn't need to make the call so early.

[Old_Johno]

47 minutes ago, Gnomicide said:

Got my order in.

Nightmare fuel 

[Lycra]

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

My take is that they won't care if the deaths are around flu levels - although NHS capacity might need to be upgraded to cope with both flu and covid in winter.

And I think the govt are going to put extra efforts into vaccinations so we might get to that lower level sooner than we're all thinking (particularly if the virus lessens

Upgrading NHS capacity would be very difficult. We can put in all the hardware (like the empty Nightingales) but we are chronically short of staff and those who are working are physically exhausted. There's even a shortage of staff to administer the vaccine!

[eFestivals]

8 minutes ago, Lycra said:

Upgrading NHS capacity would be very difficult. We can put in all the hardware (like the empty Nightingales) but we are chronically short of staff and those who are working are physically exhausted. There's even a shortage of staff to administer the vaccine!

I wasn't suggesting there was an instant fix, merely saying that there's probably still action needed if we'll be co-existing with covid once the vaccine has been rolled out.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

We don’t know how serious Covid will continue to be after vaccination and several rounds of the virus in years to come. If it exists as a threat on a similar level as flu then strengthening the NHS will be a necessary requirement, irrespective of us going about our normal lives or not. 

[Ted Dansons Wig]

1 hour ago, Gnomicide said:

Got my order in.

 

Thata a real Sunday day tripper in the Pyramid field special