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Will the 2021 festival go ahead?


JoeyT
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Glastonbury 2021   

434 members have voted

  1. 1. Following the Oxford Vaccine news will it go ahead?

    • Yes - I 100% believe
      43
    • Yes - I think so but not close to 100%. Need to see how the roll out progresses.
      158
    • Maybe - I'm 50/50
      87
    • Unlikely - Even with the latest news I think it's unlikely to take place
      79
    • No - The vaccine news is great but I can't see 200k people being allowed at Worthy Farm in June.
      67


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38 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

doubt anyone will be offering that.

It'll be up to festivals to choose to take on the risk, or not take on the risk.

Talks are ongoing with the DCMS regarding insurance cover being provided through a backed scheme. 

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6 minutes ago, Paul ™ said:

Talks are ongoing with the DCMS regarding insurance cover being provided through a backed scheme. 

who's going to take on the very high risk of a huge payout for an affordable insurance fee?

I really can't see anyone taking on that risk as its too much of an all or nothing bet. Not even the govt.

(and when there's a million different unknown variables in the mix too, of what festivals might have to comply with in order to go ahead and how they might be the cause to cancel).

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11 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

who's going to take on the very high risk of a huge payout for an affordable insurance fee?

I really can't see anyone taking on that risk as its too much of an all or nothing bet. Not even the govt.

(and when there's a million different unknown variables in the mix too, of what festivals might have to comply with in order to go ahead and how they might be the cause to cancel).

This was posted on a public group just a few days ago by one of the Bearded Theory directors.

"A few things are clearly outstanding before normality returns. But a big one which we are awaiting on is the potential for Government to proceed with an idea to offer an insurance contribution to festivals in order for them to plan and prepare without the risks of it being cancelled within weeks of the event. This is part of the DCMS inquiry and would be that the festival contributes circa 10% of its turnover, as does Government and I believe they are dealing with an insurance company who might take this on. It would be a good option and we do have a second date in our back pocket to look at in the school holidays should it look like we were a couple of months off. We want to refrain from rescheduling without it being very realistic due to the operational costs to keep having to do it. The test idea we have looked at with similar sized festivals and while it could be affordable, the logistics of having a second site to do this in cars, it would prove impossible to do at our size, not sure how even bigger events would be able to do it without staggering arrival times. Equally the public liability risk if it didnt work would be too great. We have a line up to go but will deliver it only if we have some certainty. We dont want to gamble with your money and if it came to cancellation we will do it and refund but again we are not at that juncture yet, maybe we hold out to January and then review it based on what vaccine is being delivered,  how successful that delivery is and also what initiatives such as the insurance is out there to ensure both the event and your investment in us is protected."

 

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11 minutes ago, Paul ™ said:

This was posted on a public group just a few days ago by one of the Bearded Theory directors.

Yeah, i'd already seen that, although of course he'd be hopeful about it. 

I just can't see why an insurance company would take it on.

As I said, the risks are huge, the fee is too small, plus there's a million uncertainties about situations that might cause any festival to cancel which would be hugely difficult to write into a contract.

If it happens, great. But I'm not confident.

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Question, on the insurance thing am I right in assuming this is to cover the govt pulling the plug with contracts having already been put in place and so as to reclaim the money?

If so, then to a certain extent, this could be mitigated through the contract. In these unusual times I can see that contracts would be varied to mitigate financial risk. Would this not work up until actual expenses and work is done?

Or am I living in the land of make believe? (which, is highly likely)

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2 hours ago, Paul ™ said:

This was posted on a public group just a few days ago by one of the Bearded Theory directors.

"Equally the public liability risk if it didnt work would be too great. 

 

What does that bit mean? Experts say that festivals wouldn't need PLI to go ahead with respect to a Covid risk.

Edited by Copperface
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1 hour ago, Copperface said:

What does that bit mean? Experts say that festivals wouldn't need PLI to go ahead with respect to a Covid risk.

I think he’s meaning if testing provided by the festival didn’t work - they’d potentially be open to liability for anyone subsequently infected after false negatives or other testing problems, I guess?

Different question to liability with no testing. 

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1 hour ago, hfuhruhurr said:

Question, on the insurance thing am I right in assuming this is to cover the govt pulling the plug with contracts having already been put in place and so as to reclaim the money?

If so, then to a certain extent, this could be mitigated through the contract. In these unusual times I can see that contracts would be varied to mitigate financial risk. Would this not work up until actual expenses and work is done?

Or am I living in the land of make believe? (which, is highly likely)

Thing is, just about everyone  in the industry is hurting from missing an entire years worth of business, including the companies those contracts would be with - nobody wants to take on that risk.

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1 minute ago, incident said:

Thing is, just about everyone  in the industry is hurting from missing an entire years worth of business, including the companies those contracts would be with - nobody wants to take on that risk.

But if everyone thinks that way, everyone is going to miss a second year of business and be even worse off.

It does feel like there's a need to examine the entire supply chain, work out where unrecoverable costs are actually expended (so raw materials, suppliers where demand has not dropped off or labour that has to be done far in advance) and split the risk of those costs across the supply chain.

The usual arguments don't apply here - if I was contracted to work Glasto, and it was cancelled, I would normally say "you still have to pay me as it stopped me taking on other work". But if what I do is "work at festivals" there wouldn't be any other work either.

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1 hour ago, DeanoL said:

But if everyone thinks that way, everyone is going to miss a second year of business and be even worse off.

It does feel like there's a need to examine the entire supply chain, work out where unrecoverable costs are actually expended (so raw materials, suppliers where demand has not dropped off or labour that has to be done far in advance) and split the risk of those costs across the supply chain.

The usual arguments don't apply here - if I was contracted to work Glasto, and it was cancelled, I would normally say "you still have to pay me as it stopped me taking on other work". But if what I do is "work at festivals" there wouldn't be any other work either.

I'd tend to agree here - it's horrible, but on the assumption that if all goes tits up no one gets paid, then the risk could be shared instead of all on the festival. I guess with an upside that if it does go ahead then a bigger bunce would be due.

Edited by hfuhruhurr
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2 minutes ago, Stu H said:

To add some further positivity, a host of European festivals appear to be progressing full steam ahead; Mad Cool, Nos Alive etc. In fact, festivals and artists are booking up all over the place.

Untold in Romania has just confirmed their dates in August. I wouldn’t be surprised if Sziget isn’t too far behind in confirming their line up. 
 

2021 is on 

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I can see restrictions being dropped pretty much entirely once everyone at risk/over 50 (or maybe 40) has the vaccine to get the economy rolling which should be around March (so April probably). I'm pretty optimistic for Glastonbury and I think the august festivals are a certainty now. hopefully it just plays out

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5 minutes ago, Wooderson said:

From lockdown to largest greenfield festival on the planet, free of not only masks but also insurance, in 6 months. Hmmmm.

As always, in admiration of the positivity and grit on this thread.

the only insurance it would be lacking would be pandemic cancelation insurance. 

While i'm sure every festival would much prefer to have that going forwards, it doesn't stop them going ahead if they're happy to carry that risk themselves.

Whether or not they'll be happy to carry that risk will depends on what the risk looks like - and while that's a subjective decision, it's also a fact that the risks reduce as more of the vaccine gets rolled out.

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21 minutes ago, Wooderson said:

From lockdown to largest greenfield festival on the planet, free of not only masks but also insurance, in 6 months. Hmmmm.

As always, in admiration of the positivity and grit on this thread.

Technically the sunset clause of masks being a legal requirement (and not even outdoors because that's never been part of it - https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/791/contents/made) is July 24th 2021, so it disappears in the summer anyway. (it's also due for review by Hancock on Jan 24th - I imagine it'll continue as it is).

Regardless of anyone's views on these, there is absolutely zero reason to cover healthy mouths and noses during the non-respiratory illness season - hence they won't even be a thing by then, I'm 100% sure of it. If people want to continue wearing them, they'll have every right to do so, but for much of society, we'll simply return to how things used to be; personal freedom.

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19 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

the only insurance it would be lacking would be pandemic cancelation insurance. 

While i'm sure every festival would much prefer to have that going forwards, it doesn't stop them going ahead if they're happy to carry that risk themselves.

Whether or not they'll be happy to carry that risk will depends on what the risk looks like - and while that's a subjective decision, it's also a fact that the risks reduce as more of the vaccine gets rolled out.

Tonnes of unknowns here. For one of the largest events in the world to proceed without due deference to these risks (human and commercial) strikes me as a bit mad.

Recognise i'm in the tiny minority on this forum where it appears the general trend is to express utter confidence until told otherwise.

Could be an Irish thing that my reaction is to be a little more sanguine Neil.

😉

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32 minutes ago, Wooderson said:

From lockdown to largest greenfield festival on the planet, free of not only masks but also insurance, in 6 months. Hmmmm.

As always, in admiration of the positivity and grit on this thread.

Pretty sure it’s 7 months away?

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