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Will the 2021 festival go ahead?


JoeyT
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Glastonbury 2021   

434 members have voted

  1. 1. Following the Oxford Vaccine news will it go ahead?

    • Yes - I 100% believe
      43
    • Yes - I think so but not close to 100%. Need to see how the roll out progresses.
      158
    • Maybe - I'm 50/50
      87
    • Unlikely - Even with the latest news I think it's unlikely to take place
      79
    • No - The vaccine news is great but I can't see 200k people being allowed at Worthy Farm in June.
      67


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6 hours ago, music fan said:

I'm not very confident that Glastonbury will go ahead next year, I'm afraid.  As the chancellor has only today gone and extended the furlough scheme yet again, until at least the end of April 2021!  This means it appears they will keep this social distancing and other restrictions malarky going until at least then.

Don't read too much into this. The budget is on 3rd March and it takes 45 days for big companies to make people redundant. Apparently it's to try and ensure companies don't have to begin laying people off before the budget which could contain help for businesses. 

 

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7 hours ago, Gnomicide said:

Confidence taken a dive today. 

we're right in the very worst of things at the mo, tho. It's not much of a surprise that confidence is lower, i've noticed previously that confidence tends to go up and down with the news.

It's not the situation now or our confidence that decides if the festival might be able to go ahead, it's what the covid situation is in June.

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6 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

we're right in the very worst of things at the mo, tho. It's not much of a surprise that confidence is lower, i've noticed previously that confidence tends to go up and down with the news.

It's not the situation now or our confidence that decides if the festival might be able to go ahead, it's what the covid situation is in June.

It's not though. The decision will have been made long before June.

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8 hours ago, Gnomicide said:

Confidence taken a dive today. 

Same. Although the vaccine will ultimately get us out of this, I have a feeling now that the governments utter ineptitude will make the process take far longer than it should. 

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4 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

It's not though. The decision will have been made long before June.

I'd hoped the wording I used would stop that sort of reply. 😛 

Yeah, I know Glastonbury's own confidence for pushing ahead is in the mix - but ultimately, what the situation is in June is in charge. Cos Glastonbury could decide to try and go ahead and the situation in June not be good enough.

I'm pretty confident the situation June will be good enough. The high covid rates of right now will have faded away by then even without the vaccine, just as flu fades away in the spring.

I'm less confident in Glastonbury pushing on, or in enough of the anti-covid measures being removed fast enough to make Glastonbury viable (because it really needs normal-normal and not near-normal).

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5 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I'd hoped the wording I used would stop that sort of reply. 😛 

Yeah, I know Glastonbury's own confidence for pushing ahead is in the mix - but ultimately, what the situation is in June is in charge. Cos Glastonbury could decide to try and go ahead and the situation in June not be good enough.

I'm pretty confident the situation June will be good enough. The high covid rates of right now will have faded away by then even without the vaccine, just as flu fades away in the spring.

I'm less confident in Glastonbury pushing on, or in enough of the anti-covid measures being removed fast enough to make Glastonbury viable (because it really needs normal-normal and not near-normal).

That's my exact read on it.

I think we will end up in a sad situation where the festival could have gone ahead as cases plummet in April-June but Glastonbury gets (understandably) nervous and pulls the plug.

But there's still some hope.

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2 minutes ago, xxialac said:

That's my exact read on it.

I think we will end up in a sad situation where the festival could have gone ahead as cases plummet in April-June but Glastonbury gets (understandably) nervous and pulls the plug.

But there's still some hope.

Possibly why the festival is seeking government backed cancellation insurance ?  I’m still hopeful as well!

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Just now, eFestivals said:

perfectly said. My take on it too.

The solution for government is to engage the insurance sector (Lloyds etc) to expertly calculate the risk for these big events and then for the government to underwrite it, just as they are underwriting the small business loans.

They won't.

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1 minute ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

Possibly why the festival is seeking government backed cancellation insurance ?  I’m still hopeful as well!

that would be the govt betting on their own future decisions.

I think that's an impossible thing for them to get into, when their decisions are based around something completely outside of their control.

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2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

that would be the govt betting on their own future decisions.

I think that's an impossible thing for them to get into, when their decisions are based around something completely outside of their control.

The govt signed up to e.g. the Eat Out to Help Out scheme not knowing what the uptake and thus cost would be.

Here they could in fact just pay the insurance premiums so they would have certainty of the cost of this.

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2 minutes ago, xxialac said:

The govt signed up to e.g. the Eat Out to Help Out scheme not knowing what the uptake and thus cost would be.

they would have had a very good idea of the likely maximum. But anyway, I don't see that as anything like similar.

I think a better comparison is how they underwrite flood insurance - where they know what the incidence of flooding is and so what their payout might be, but where it's something outside of their control. The govt do not legislate to create flooding.

The govt would be (or already have) legislating to cause festivals to cancel.

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1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

they would have had a very good idea of the likely maximum. But anyway, I don't see that as anything like similar.

I think a better comparison is how they underwrite flood insurance - where they know what the incidence of flooding is and so what their payout might be, but where it's something outside of their control. The govt do not legislate to create flooding.

The govt would be (or already have) legislating to cause festivals to cancel.

Yeah, did think of that after I wrote it and that's a much better comparison.

 

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22 minutes ago, xxialac said:

That's my exact read on it.

I think we will end up in a sad situation where the festival could have gone ahead as cases plummet in April-June but Glastonbury gets (understandably) nervous and pulls the plug.

But there's still some hope.

I think this may happen too, Michael and Emily wont want to risk it and will pull the plug but other festivals e.g. R+L, IOW, Download, Latitude etc. will hold it out as long as possible to see if the cases do drop off. I'm more than confident there will be a festival season in 2021, however I'm unsure if Glasto will be apart of it

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30 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I'd hoped the wording I used would stop that sort of reply. 😛 

Yeah, I know Glastonbury's own confidence for pushing ahead is in the mix - but ultimately, what the situation is in June is in charge. Cos Glastonbury could decide to try and go ahead and the situation in June not be good enough.

I'm pretty confident the situation June will be good enough. The high covid rates of right now will have faded away by then even without the vaccine, just as flu fades away in the spring.

I'm less confident in Glastonbury pushing on, or in enough of the anti-covid measures being removed fast enough to make Glastonbury viable (because it really needs normal-normal and not near-normal).

Well you should have used better wording then 😜, like "What they situation is likely to be in June"!

But unfortunately, nobody has a crystal ball, so it's not about what actually happens in June, it's all about the organisers confidence levels

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1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Well you should have used better wording then 😜, like "What they situation is likely to be in June"!

But unfortunately, nobody has a crystal ball, so it's not about what actually happens in June, it's all about the organisers confidence levels

I've just woken up. Actually we agree, it's about two things isn't it? Whether they attempt to go ahead is about confidence now, whether that attempt is successful is about the situation in June.

However, given what's at stake I would have thought bailing early and then everything being fine is now likely than them betting the farm (literally and figuratively) on the festival being doable, but having to pull the plug in summer.

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Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

Well you should have used better wording then 😜

yep!

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

it's all about the organisers confidence levels

right now it is, but if they push ahead it'll be about what the situation will be in June. 😛 

I've already said that it's comparatively easy for the govt to boost the confidence levels, by giving an idea of their thinking for happens below tier one as the vaccine takes effect.

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1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

yep!

right now it is, but if they push ahead it'll be about what the situation will be in June. 😛 

I've already said that it's comparatively easy for the govt to boost the confidence levels, by giving an idea of their thinking for happens below tier one as the vaccine takes effect.

Totally agree with it. They need to get on with it too.

You don't need a crystal ball as you're not making any predictions, you're simply saying if X and Y  happens we will open up Z. 

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