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Will the 2021 festival go ahead?


Glastonbury 2021   

434 members have voted

  1. 1. Following the Oxford Vaccine news will it go ahead?

    • Yes - I 100% believe
      43
    • Yes - I think so but not close to 100%. Need to see how the roll out progresses.
      158
    • Maybe - I'm 50/50
      87
    • Unlikely - Even with the latest news I think it's unlikely to take place
      79
    • No - The vaccine news is great but I can't see 200k people being allowed at Worthy Farm in June.
      67


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1 hour ago, crazyfool1 said:

Would people’s opinions changed if the govt were smashing the vaccine target ? 

There's a few key factors that would need to happen before my confidence levels are increased. At the risk of sounding uber-pessimistic, I'd like to see evidence of the vaccine working first. I have absolute faith in science and I believe it will work but for my own confidence levels of anything going ahead in 2021, I place more importance on the effectiveness and impact, rather than the rollout

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At this stage, while it's looking unlikely to a lot of people that Glastonbury will be going ahead, let's just remember that even if it doesn't, by the time we get to late June the situation in the co

Inevitable I suppose    

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51 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

But I feel like all of these events are just going to end up moving, just like Glastonbury likely will.

It's an option - more of an option for other festivals than it is Glastonbury - but they can't all play that card. Every festival in Europe isn't going to be able to move to a three week period around the end of August.

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3 minutes ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

There's a few key factors that would need to happen before my confidence levels are increased. At the risk of sounding uber-pessimistic, I'd like to see evidence of the vaccine working first. I have absolute faith in science and I believe it will work but for my own confidence levels of anything going ahead in 2021, I place more importance on the effectiveness and impact, rather than the rollout

theres some early signs in some N ire data that the proportion of the over 80s hospitalisation levels are decreasing  proportionally ... so hopefully thats some early signs ... but yes that is an absolute must ..... I also think IF glastonbury were to allow only the vaccinated or needed a proportion of the crowd vaccinated  .... then the % of the population able to get tickets would be massively important 

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8 minutes ago, dentalplan said:

It's an option - more of an option for other festivals than it is Glastonbury - but they can't all play that card. Every festival in Europe isn't going to be able to move to a three week period around the end of August.

The way I see it though is it will be all EU festivals going ahead or none. I can’t see a situation where a select few cancel and one in a neighbouring country goes ahead. Glastonbury might bite the bullet first because they have to do a lot of prep work with the site, but it will be a sign of things to come rather than Glastonbury being the short-changed.

June is 6 months away. I don’t think it’s enough time for any EU festivals.

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24 minutes ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

There's a few key factors that would need to happen before my confidence levels are increased. At the risk of sounding uber-pessimistic, I'd like to see evidence of the vaccine working first. I have absolute faith in science and I believe it will work but for my own confidence levels of anything going ahead in 2021, I place more importance on the effectiveness and impact, rather than the rollout

I have seen somewhere ( can’t remember where though ) , the over 80’s infection rates and hospital admission has dropped very sharply, this gives me hope for a end to this madness, and a twinge of hope for a Glasto 2021 , failing that , maybe some live music later in the year 

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9 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

theres some early signs in some N ire data that the proportion of the over 80s hospitalisation levels are decreasing  proportionally ... so hopefully thats some early signs ... but yes that is an absolute must ..... I also think IF glastonbury were to allow only the vaccinated or needed a proportion of the crowd vaccinated  .... then the % of the population able to get tickets would be massively important 

Since the announcement of the vaccine I think we're collectively guilty of dropping our guard and the results speak for that (the new variant has also had a major impact, of course). 

All the emphasis has been on the creation of the vaccine, not it's actual effectiveness once it's been rolled out. That will come in time but it's too early to tell the speed of which we'll see all of the key numbers falling. My confidence levels will increase in line with the evidence of effectiveness. At the moment, with 5000 people dying this week alone (that is horrific to even contemplate), June seems too soon to be able to put on an event the size of Glastonbury. 

If it goes ahead in June, it will be nothing short of a miraculous turnaround.

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1 minute ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

Since the announcement of the vaccine I think we're collectively guilty of dropping our guard and the results speak for that (the new variant has also had a major impact, of course). 

All the emphasis has been on the creation of the vaccine, not it's actual effectiveness once it's been rolled out. That will come in time but it's too early to tell the speed of which we'll see all of the key numbers falling. My confidence levels will increase in line with the evidence of effectiveness. At the moment, with 5000 people dying this week alone (that is horrific to even contemplate), June seems too soon to be able to put on an event the size of Glastonbury. 

If it goes ahead in June, it will be nothing short of a miraculous turnaround.

cant disagree ... absolutely right 

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5 minutes ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

Since the announcement of the vaccine I think we're collectively guilty of dropping our guard and the results speak for that (the new variant has also had a major impact, of course). 

All the emphasis has been on the creation of the vaccine, not it's actual effectiveness once it's been rolled out. That will come in time but it's too early to tell the speed of which we'll see all of the key numbers falling. My confidence levels will increase in line with the evidence of effectiveness. At the moment, with 5000 people dying this week alone (that is horrific to even contemplate), June seems too soon to be able to put on an event the size of Glastonbury. 

If it goes ahead in June, it will be nothing short of a miraculous turnaround.

Re: effectiveness of the vaccine we should be keeping a very close eye on Israel. Vaccinating 7.5% of the population per week, and have locked down recently with a surge in cases (4 days ago i believe). I don’t expect to see anything significant from the UK side until at least a month.

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2 hours ago, st dan said:

Wonder if events may include a disclaimer saying that if it were to be cancelled for any reason, then money will not be returned and will unfortunately be lost to cover the costs. 
Think people would understand this stance and would be willing to take the ‘risk’ given we’ve gone a full year without live music. 

That may be possible for new ticket sales.

I don't think you can reasonably impose that restriction on people who've rolled over, though, and most of the tickets for 2021 festivals are rolled over from 2020/

Maybe you could offer them a refund in exchange for accepting the new terms, but that in itself is a huge risk.

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14 hours ago, mike46 said:

It does stop me seeing quite a few friends. We no longer live anywhere near each other and for those exact reasons you state, the festival is our chance to block a week of time together that we could never do, particularly with those friends who don’t live in the UK. Hopefully we could do that later this year somewhere in the world, but if global travel is back then thankfully gigs and festivals will be back too. 

 

I completely agree, but I don’t think anyone really believes they “can’t miss another Glastonbury” it’s just their way of expressing their sadness. I know my gig-going is a rarity, bonus of my job luckily, but at the same point I haven’t had a holiday or break away outside a festival in around in 7 years as I can’t afford too, which is something that you stated you are looking forward too, so it’s all personal opinion on what we miss the most and want back and I hope we can all do it. 
 

We’ll all get there together though and we’ll all soon be back doing what we love, whatever that might be.
 

Personally, I’m most looking forward to seeing how much of a distant memory these last 10 months will become! 
 

 

For me for exmaple. I went travelling in September 19. I came back just about end of March when the pandemic was getting bad. Since then I've family and a few friends on a couple of occasions. Nothing since early November though I belive apart from my support person and I can't see that support as easy as their own support frequent their house and visa versa so we are stuck to ourdoor walks virtually.

I don't know what you do for a job but that sounds more reasonable. That said that is your job, seeing that many gigs as a job should not be confused with the reality of everyone in a paid for gig capacity.

On the money side though obviously less money spent on gigs more on holidays but then i don't know how many are included as part of work. But holidaying in England can be done instead of festival ticket cost.

Luckily I got a job in November but for 7 months it was furlough in many places so they didn't know if they had a job to go back to let alone any new starters.

But besides all that, if a festival can't go ahead due to things then it's not make or break for me. My health is more important and god it pisses me off peope who amuse not only rules but common sense.

A young lad was talking about meeting round his mates on new years to get drunk and my thought was...how do you beat that.

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3 hours ago, crazyfool1 said:

Would people’s opinions changed if the govt were smashing the vaccine target ? 

It would take more than that to change my opinion. The government need to produce detailed forecasts of what they will allow when the data reaches certain key points. I can’t imagine anything else would give large scale events confidence to plan.

Issuing vague, arbitrary dates based on hope, with Johnson, Hancock and Gove all contradicting each other, just sows confusion. Staying silent on state support for festivals tells me they don’t plan to do anything to help. The point to do that, as Sacha Lord said, is now. Not in March or beyond. 

So even if the government smash their vaccine targets, organisations are still in the dark about what happens next and when. Glastonbury can’t properly plan on that basis, and I don’t think they’ll take the risk. They’d rather be sure of 2022 than take a punt on 2021 and risk crippling losses. 

The only difference from last year is that COVID stopped the 2020 festival. In 2021, it’s the government that fucked it. 

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34 minutes ago, kalifire said:

The government need to produce detailed forecasts of what they will allow when the data reaches certain key points. I can’t imagine anything else would give large scale events confidence to plan.

This! I've been saying it for ages!

 

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1 minute ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

How much faith would you put in our government's forecasts? 

It wouldn’t be a calendar forecast as much as “when we reach X, we’ll move to Y” as a set of restrictions. It’s really the only logical way they can do it. They have no real control over when the data reaches a key point, but they can plan what to do when they get there and make that information public so businesses can start to plan as we get towards a target. 

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5 minutes ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

How much faith would you put in our government's forecasts? I don't think they even believe them, hence the lack of an insurance offer

 

 

2 minutes ago, kalifire said:

It wouldn’t be a calendar forecast as much as “when we reach X, we’ll move to Y”

Spot on, again. 

But it should be possible to make a decent prediction for when those marks will be hit from around the end of February (when the effect of the vaccine is showing within the data).

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Just now, Andy0808 v5 said:

The atmosphere at Glasto HQ must be terrible. They probably know the likely outcome, but can’t bite the bullet and cancel until it’s clearer.

Feel extremely bad for both the Eavii!

I'm guessing they have a few dates set when they'll consider pulling the plug or pushing on to the next date to re-evaluate.

It is what it is. There's nothing anyone can do but wait and see how things play out.

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22 minutes ago, kalifire said:

It wouldn’t be a calendar forecast as much as “when we reach X, we’ll move to Y” as a set of restrictions. It’s really the only logical way they can do it. They have no real control over when the data reaches a key point, but they can plan what to do when they get there and make that information public so businesses can start to plan as we get towards a target. 

Those businesses would be able to plan to some extent, but even that would be better than absolutely nothing, which is what we currently have, apart from some vague waffle about 'vulnerable' and 'vaccinated'.

Needs specific metrics to be counted each week such as:


Hospital admission rates

NHS capacity and/or overload

Transmission and infection rates R number

Death rates (important but hospital admissions are more key)

Initial vaccination rates and ratios in key groups (Groups 1-9 in Phase 1) - outstanding non vaccinated numbers

Vaccination rates of second administered doses. (J&J separate)

Presence of variants and impact on vaccinated/non vaccinated/previously infected 

Vaccine supply chain prediction several months in advance.

Other businesses will also depend on international infection/vaccination rates as well.

Once you get to Groups 1-9 fully X2 vaccinated plus 65-70% national population you're in a really good place.

 

Specific metrics within those groups could be used to impose/lift restrictions on specific business areas.

But important to realise that they work both ways. Restrictions may need to be reimposed is some metrics start going the wrong way, so there won't be any concrete guarantees and that will also complicate planning..

 

 

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2 hours ago, Copperface said:

Those businesses would be able to plan to some extent, but even that would be better than absolutely nothing, which is what we currently have, apart from some vague waffle about 'vulnerable' and 'vaccinated'.

Needs specific metrics to be counted each week such as:


Hospital admission rates

NHS capacity and/or overload

Transmission and infection rates R number

Death rates (important but hospital admissions are more key)

Initial vaccination rates and ratios in key groups (Groups 1-9 in Phase 1) - outstanding non vaccinated numbers

Vaccination rates of second administered doses. (J&J separate)

Presence of variants and impact on vaccinated/non vaccinated/previously infected 

Vaccine supply chain prediction several months in advance.

Other businesses will also depend on international infection/vaccination rates as well.

Once you get to Groups 1-9 fully X2 vaccinated plus 65-70% national population you're in a really good place.

 

Specific metrics within those groups could be used to impose/lift restrictions on specific business areas.

But important to realise that they work both ways. Restrictions may need to be reimposed is some metrics start going the wrong way, so there won't be any concrete guarantees and that will also complicate planning..

 

 

In listing so many metrics it highlights the complexity of generating an X = Y scenario when it comes to restrictions.

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40 minutes ago, Lycra said:

In listing so many metrics it highlights the complexity of generating an X = Y scenario when it comes to restrictions.

It is complex, but there's really only eight key figures above needed and they are collated anyway .

Just put it all on a risk matrix and match it up to various business areas that have their own threat and risk matrix. Add the figures and the general considerations as to whether to open up or restrict a certain area becomes clearer. 

They'll soon have all these numbers. Trouble is, do they want to publish them?

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The Times & The Mail both saying that Government sources have told them that it’ll likely be May Bank Holiday before hospitality reopens, with social distancing in place. 
 

I’d say there’s very little hope of Glastonbury going ahead if so.

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