Will the 2021 festival go ahead?

[eFestivals]

15 minutes ago, Copperface said:

No, as far as I know I've never claimed that at all. A rollout of a vaccine in conjunction with other measures will reduce demand on NHS resources, but gradually, as the programme continues. It's not immediate. 

I agree.

But since you made your prediction a year ago, we have an unexpectedly high demand on the NHS. It was unexpected as little as a month ago.

So it's going to take much longer to reduce than was the case for any data you considered a year ago for your prediction. Yet your prediction remains unchanged.

Unless you also predicted the new variant a year ago too?

Cos that's the only way you could have an unchanged prediction if you're working from the facts.

 

15 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Correct on the government. But they have backed down in every case so far.

No they haven't. They opened up after lockdown 1 sooner than advised.  There was no September lockdown. Etc etc etc.

15 minutes ago, Copperface said:

And they cannot operate in isolation in a connected world. It is in the economic interest of the country to control transmission rates in a global context -it's an international effort not solely the UK.

Lol. I refer you to so much that has happened in the last year.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

3 hours ago, Lycra said:

 

It's no good vaccinating the over 50s & vulnerable and opening up society only to create a third wave of hospitalizations, yet that is precisely what we could do. Having taken many of the vulnerable and old the virus has mutated to infect more & more of the young. This is evidenced by the shifting demographic of covid patients. It's no good saving granny only to fill hospital beds with the young. You may suggest that this won't happen, but it already is. Our ITU's are full and overflowing, not with the old & the vulnerable, but with younger patients who have a better chance of recovery from covid and recovery from intubation.

Stopping the virus will take more than vaccinating I've over 50s and vulnerable. 

That’s all very well, but once deaths are cut significantly there will be large swathes of the population who will be happy to take the risk of ending up in hospital, because on an individual basis the risk will be extremely low and people’s freedoms will have been curtailed for nearly 18 months.

The risk of hospitalisation of under 50s and the subsequent strain on the NHS is completely separate to people’s own willingness to continue to care about that on an individual basis. 

[Copperface]

15 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I agree.

But since you made your prediction a year ago, we have an unexpectedly high demand on the NHS. It was unexpected as little as a month ago.

 

 

No they haven't. They opened up after lockdown 1 sooner than advised.  There was no September lockdown. Etc etc etc.

Lol. I refer you to so much that has happened in the last year.

 It was in no way an unexpectedly high demand. 

 https://acmedsci.ac.uk/more/news/prepare-now-for-a-winter-covid-19-peak-warns-academy-of-medical-sciences

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m2825

I agree they've fudged initially, but eventually been forced to give in to reality and subsequently, advice.

Don't understand the last bit. The key is that once other countries are 'out of it' , we can't afford to be riding solo still not getting on top of it.

[zahidf]

Just now, Copperface said:

 It was in no way an unexpectedly high demand. 

 https://acmedsci.ac.uk/more/news/prepare-now-for-a-winter-covid-19-peak-warns-academy-of-medical-sciences

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m2825

I agree they've fudged initially, but eventually been forced to give in to reality and subsequently, advice.

Don't understand the last bit. The key is that once other countries are 'out of it' , we can't afford to be riding solo still not getting on top of it.

If we are well ahead of other countries with vaccinations, we can reopen with limits with regards vaccinations passports/tests being negative before coming in.

'We need more restrictions because France are being crap' isn't going to fly.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

If the virus is circulating here anyway and we’ve vaccinated a large percentage of our population, new variants aside what is the issue with people bringing it in anyway? 

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, Copperface said:

 It was in no way an unexpectedly high demand. 

Yes it is. We've already exceeded the general theme of those with the peak of deaths still some way off, and those were not predictions that included an effect from a new variant.

If they could go back a year to predict knowing about the new variant, they would predict something higher ... Because when the data changes any prediction based on that data should also change.

 

 

2 minutes ago, Copperface said:

The key is that once other countries are 'out of it' , we can't afford to be riding solo still not getting on top of it.

All other countries will be broadly in the same place as the UK, with covid within the population but of no greater concern than flu. Even NZ is admitting it'll be letting covid in once it's been vaccinated.

[Copperface]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Yes it is. We've already exceeded the general theme of those with the peak of deaths still some way off, and those were not predictions that included an effect from a new variant.

If they could go back a year to predict knowing about the new variant, they would predict something higher ... Because when the data changes any prediction based on that data should also change.

 

 

All other countries will be broadly in the same place as the UK, with covid within the population but of no greater concern than flu. Even NZ is admitting it'll be letting covid in once it's been vaccinated.

See?

I knew we agreed really.

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, Copperface said:

See?

I knew we agreed really.

That your guess cannot be based on the data?

Yeah, was always on obvious when the data changed but your guess didn't. 

[Old_Johno]

Just seen they’ve hit 2.4million jabs in arms. My hopes have risen slightly. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

In the next couple of days we will have vaccinated more people than have officially been infected. Although of course the real number is at least 5/10 times more than that.

[fraybentos1]

18 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

In the next couple of days we will have vaccinated more people than have officially been infected. Although of course the real number is at least 5/10 times more than that.

Article in the Guardian yday predicted that over 12 million in England alone have actually had it and said that in some London boroughs they think it is over 50%.

[tigger123]

6 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Article in the Guardian yday predicted that over 12 million in England alone have actually had it and said that in some London boroughs they think it is over 50%.

Given that in some parts of London have over 50% of people having had it, plus the vaccine roll out gathering speed, London shouldn't be too far off reaching herd immunity surely, especially as everyone will have been vaccinated/had the virus within a year of each other, so assuming as quite a few have that immunity lasts at least a year, then surely London should be in a good place in the next couple of months? I know there's some people catching it twice but that seems to be the exception rather than the norm.

[DareToDibble]

I’m assuming that if, for example, we had vaccinated 20mil but that another 10m have had the virus already we can’t count them as there isn’t enough evidence to show how strong the antibodies are or that you can’t get it a second time? 

Essentially the only figure that will count towards immunity is the vaccination figure?  

[fraybentos1]

4 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

Given that in some parts of London have over 50% of people having had it, plus the vaccine roll out gathering speed, London shouldn't be too far off reaching herd immunity surely, especially as everyone will have been vaccinated/had the virus within a year of each other, so assuming as quite a few have that immunity lasts at least a year, then surely London should be in a good place in the next couple of months? I know there's some people catching it twice but that seems to be the exception rather than the norm.

I'm no expert but here is the article if you want to see it:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/jan/10/one-in-five-have-had-coronavirus-in-england-new-modelling-says

But yes if areas are at 50+ percent of people have had it then it isn't too far off herd immunity range.

[tigger123]

Just now, fraybentos1 said:

I'm no expert but here is the article if you want to see it:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/jan/10/one-in-five-have-had-coronavirus-in-england-new-modelling-says

But yes if areas are at 50+ percent of people have had it then it isn't too far off herd immunity range.

Lovely stuff, thanks

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

1 hour ago, Copperface said:

See?

I knew we agreed really.

I've just waded through two pages of pandemic ping-pong and you actually agree?!

[Stokesy10]

Just about to apply for annual leave in June for the farm, knowing full well I'll likely have to delete it in March 😢

[Ozanne]

2 minutes ago, Stokesy10 said:

Just about to apply for annual leave in June for the farm, knowing full well I'll likely have to delete it in March 😢

I’ve been putting that off, at least it’s some form of normality you doing that!?

[The Nal]

2 minutes ago, Stokesy10 said:

Just about to apply for annual leave in June for the farm, knowing full well I'll likely have to delete it in March 😢

Getting to that time alright. Booking time off work, booking transport and the like. 

Only 162 days till we can celebrate with a quarter of a million people, going to be great! 

[Copperface]

28 minutes ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

I've just waded through two pages of pandemic ping-pong and you actually agree?!

Well, most of us have got fuck all else to do, have we?

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

8 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Well, most of us have got fuck all else to do, have we?

Exactly. As I have demonstrated by reading it 😄

[Cherry Tree]

Trying to haul this back on track, just noticed that the Bath & West Showground is getting set up as a vaccination centre, assuming that we will still be using these in May/June, does this have an impact on the festival.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

23 minutes ago, Cherry Tree said:

Trying to haul this back on track, just noticed that the Bath & West Showground is getting set up as a vaccination centre, assuming that we will still be using these in May/June, does this have an impact on the festival.

I’m not sure but Ashton gate is being used and football will be played there once a week with the Championship schedule as it is all the way up until May. Glastonbury is a slightly different proposition of course, but they’d only have to suspend appointments there for that week if necessary.

[morph100]

6 minutes ago, Big durbs said:

i have booked 2021 & 2022 ( just to be on the safe side 🙂 , there are a number of other people in my holiday group that are "thinking " about getting tickets FFS bloody thinking about it !!!!! its not like going to the cinema to see a film  ... ARRRRGGGGGG 

Haha it’s so funny when people at work say “yeah looked good on telly I might get a ticket next year” little do they know you need a team of 20 people with 5 devices each 🙂

[DeanoL]

On 1/9/2021 at 8:35 PM, Gilgamesh69 said:

I mean, yeah people do have their own ways of getting through it. But there comes a point when being too negative is just toxic, and serves no purpose other than to irritate people. It's alright to be doubtful, but saying stuff like "glastonbury is finished, its not coming back" is just dickhead behaviour. People are struggling enough with their mental health already, so trying to obscure the light at the tunnels end does nobody any favours 😞

I don't really blame them though. One of those people was Michael Eavis: https://www.theguardian.com/music/2020/jun/25/michael-eavis-glastonbury-will-go-bankrupt-if-it-cant-be-staged-in-2021-coronavirus#:~:text=6 months old-,Michael Eavis%3A Glastonbury could go bankrupt if it can,t be staged in 2021&text=Speaking exclusively to the Guardian,Otherwise it will be curtains.

If it looks like the festival won't happen this year, and Eavis is on record saying if it doesn't they might be done for, it's a fair assumption. We might know it's not true but can't blame them.

19 hours ago, Old_Johno said:

Hi young people, I know we’ve ruined your careers and future prospects by making you stay home to avoid getting a virus that you’ll most likely be fine with, but it was to save the elderly.

Now stay home while they go to the pub. 

Can see how well that one will go down.

judging by the amount of people queueing up for coffees on Brighton seafront there’s barely any appetite for lockdown left at the moment. Let alone waiting til May

You don't see the millions of people sheltering indoors for obvious reasons. If you think about how many people would normally be *in* coffee shops, restaurants, pubs, shops etc. along the seafront then look at how many there are today then you'll see it's a lot lower than you think.