Will the 2021 festival go ahead?

[Old_Johno]

Hi young people, I know we’ve ruined your careers and future prospects by making you stay home to avoid getting a virus that you’ll most likely be fine with, but it was to save the elderly.

Now stay home while they go to the pub. 

Can see how well that one will go down.

judging by the amount of people queueing up for coffees on Brighton seafront there’s barely any appetite for lockdown left at the moment. Let alone waiting til May

[kalifire]

1 minute ago, Old_Johno said:

judging by the amount of people queueing up for coffees on Brighton seafront there’s barely any appetite for lockdown left at the moment. Let alone waiting til May

If a government doesn’t go tough and go early, toughness holds no value. That’s where they went wrong. They spent the best part of a year solemnly bringing in half measures, and people largely went along with it. The latest lockdown only exposes how insufficient those measures were, and people feel like they’re paying the cost for government incompetence, which in many ways they are. It’s a horribly frustrating thing to watch play out from part of the world who more or less succeeded (as much as possible, at any rate). 

[eFestivals]

13 hours ago, Mouseboy11 said:

The Times & The Mail both saying that Government sources have told them that it’ll likely be May Bank Holiday before hospitality reopens, with social distancing in place. 
 

I’d say there’s very little hope of Glastonbury going ahead if so.

surely that's just a fit with the current furlough end date, which itself is a guess to fit with the March budget.

 

[eFestivals]

12 hours ago, Copperface said:

Said all this before. Repeatedly. Since early last year. Many times.

If you're right, you're right via the luck of the new variant. 

Did you say about that since early last year as well?

Edited January 11, 2021 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

12 hours ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

It doesn’t make sense to import anything for a festival from overseas other than acts, and we can manage without those for one year.

the UK has been very happy for all of the last year to allow business travel, which is bands.

Even now we're getting tough (lol) it's sorted with a negative test result.

Bands are really not an issue, on any level.

[Copperface]

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

If you're right, you're right via the luck of the new variant. 

Did you say about that since early last year as well?

Bit lost. What does that mean? Luck?

The new variant has accelerated things a bit but the basics of the timeline are unchanged. The consistency is where the projections for a great improvement have always been around late summer/autumn 2021. They have always been that timescale. Not mine, but official projections. All the information is easy to find, it's whether you choose to read it or more relevantly, want to believe it.

I was highlighting in mid March (March 17 if you need an exact date) planning and projections for measures lasting at least until end summer/autumn and in some cases in 2022.

I was hopeful of getting to EoTR in September but think that'll now be out the window as well.

 

 

 

[Lycra]

14 hours ago, zahidf said:

Yeah this. Once the vaccination target for mid feb has been reached and the deaths/hospitalisations go down, I expect people to thing their nose more at social distancing.

 

14 hours ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Once deaths and hospitalisations come down to manageable levels, if there are still restrictions from a public health point of view then there will be a clamour from people who say “but we don’t care about that”. 

It's no good vaccinating the over 50s & vulnerable and opening up society only to create a third wave of hospitalizations, yet that is precisely what we could do. Having taken many of the vulnerable and old the virus has mutated to infect more & more of the young. This is evidenced by the shifting demographic of covid patients. It's no good saving granny only to fill hospital beds with the young. You may suggest that this won't happen, but it already is. Our ITU's are full and overflowing, not with the old & the vulnerable, but with younger patients who have a better chance of recovery from covid and recovery from intubation.

Stopping the virus will take more than vaccinating I've over 50s and vulnerable. 

[eFestivals]

17 minutes ago, Copperface said:

The new variant has accelerated things a bit but the basics of the timeline are unchanged.

clearly not true. There's much more covid than expected at the mo, which will take a longer time to reduce.

[Copperface]

6 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

clearly not true. There's much more covid than expected at the mo, which will take a longer time to reduce.

The Covid is one very important part, but it was always going to be serious. The delivery of the vaccine programme to reduce prevalence, spread and demand is equally as important, and timelines on that have always been fairly consistent since they were expected to be approved. Planning measures in general are unchanged. They've always looked at mid to late summer/autumn for a significant improvement.  

This years festival was always on shaky ground from early part of last year. Great deal of uncertainty but that is expected in a situation like this.

[eFestivals]

20 minutes ago, Copperface said:

They've always looked at mid to late summer/autumn for a significant improvement.

who has? The govt has (before new variant) consistently being saying Easter for a significant removal of restrictions.

If you say the scientists, I'll point out they're not in charge.

[hfuhruhurr]

Unless they lock down a heck of a lot more right now, then this bollocks is going to last until the summer or beyond. Just look at the traffic on the roads compared to last lockdown - it's ridiculous. A half-arsed lockdown plays into the virus hands - evolution dictates that unless a step change is made then mutations will evolve to beat the current half-arsed measures and we'll have another strain that's even better at spreading. That's how it works - if we only evolve our anti-covid measures than the little sods will evolve to beat them.

I was a 100%'er, but incompetence is just terrible, on everyone's part.

[Copperface]

17 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

who has? The govt has (before new variant) consistently being saying Easter for a significant removal of restrictions.

If you say the scientists, I'll point out they're not in charge.

Yes, the scientists. And not just in the UK.

No, they are not in charge, but their recommendations eventually prevailed virtually every single time so far.

There have been lots of variables, mainly with what the government has been saying, and I still think there might be a significant lifting of restriction by Easter, irrespective of vaccination rates.

But that message has always been projecting a graduated lifting to a certain point where much of daily life can go on but certain restrictions on things like mass events, which is the reason we are all looking at these posts, won't be going ahead as normal.

It's also always been about getting to a critical mass of vaccination in the population, not just vaccinate the vulnerable and open up which is what several here were basing their hopes on. 

Edited January 11, 2021 by Copperface

[eFestivals]

17 minutes ago, Copperface said:

but certain restrictions on things like mass events, which is the reason we are all looking at these posts, won't be going ahead as normal.

that's simply your guess.  You might end up being right, but it's still just your guess.

To stick to the same guess when the situation has become vastly different and so the scientists recommendations are likely to have pushed that date forwards is a little weird. It's almost like you realised your longstanding guess wasn't all you were claiming for it.

[Copperface]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

that's simply your guess.  You might end up being right, but it's still just your guess.

To stick to the same guess when the situation has become vastly different and so the scientists recommendations are likely to have pushed that date forwards is a little weird. It's almost like you realised your longstanding guess wasn't all you were claiming for it.

The new variant has accelerated the spread. But transmission and infection was always a concern. That is why the pandemic planning and advice was always to get to herd immunity via vaccines. That is why it was never going to be vaccinate the vulnerable and lift restrictions. The Easter debate was about an ability to hit vaccination targets, and what those targets truly were.

These things always have some inbuilt elasticity. But the overarching large scale framework has never really changed. 

The planning has been based on initial conceptions, and as knowledge has developed in treatments, effects, measures and vaccines it has, in effect, has only got longer from the initial open ended planning. 

Noone has really had anything other than a guess, but my guesses were informed guesses based on the contingency/resilience planning I was on plus what was readily available open source, rather than blind hope and trust in the governments words.

It's another viewpoint and people are welcome too disregard it if they choose.

[eFestivals]

14 minutes ago, Copperface said:

The new variant has accelerated the spread.

and will do in the future, too.

The whole of your prediction stands on restrictions of some level continuing after deaths and hospitalisations aren't a major issue - which only leaves the rate and number of infections as the reason for them.

And when the ability to infect within the community is increased, everything of your prediction has stayed the same. It's rather amazing.

14 minutes ago, Copperface said:

That is why the pandemic planning and advice was always to get to herd immunity via vaccines.

the UK gets to herd immunity on the same date whether or not festivals go ahead.

 

Quote

That is why it was never going to be vaccinate the vulnerable and lift restrictions.

when there is no damage* to be caused, care to say what the restrictions would be for?

* the govt hasn't given a shit about the number of deaths all the way thru, whether big or small. Just NHS capacity. If they cared about deaths they'd have locked down in Sept when deaths started to rise and they were advised to lockdown.

Edited January 11, 2021 by eFestivals

[Copperface]

7 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

and will do in the future, too.

The whole of your prediction stands on restrictions of some level continuing after deaths and hospitalisations aren't a major issue - which only leaves the rate and number of infections as the reason for them.

And when the ability to infect within the community is increased, everything of your prediction has stayed the same. It's rather amazing.

the UK gets to herd immunity on the same date whether or not festivals go ahead.

 

when there is no damage* to be caused, care to say what the restrictions would be for?

* the govt hasn't given a shit about the number of deaths all the way thru, whether big or small. Just NHS capacity. If they cared about deaths they'd have locked down in Sept when deaths started to rise and they were advised to lockdown.

I've lost track of the debate completely now.

Let's wait and see how it pans out. But base projections on accurate or informed facts and figures, not on a misconstrued or mistaken basis.

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, Copperface said:

But base projections on accurate or informed facts and figures

I'm pointing out that they are NOT that.

The facts have changed; your projection hasn't.

[Copperface]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I'm pointing out that they are NOT that.

The facts have changed; your projection hasn't.

That's because the overarching planning framework has a projected timescale, but the linear measurement of where we are within that framework is elastic due to developing situations. The framework remains valid.

Edited January 11, 2021 by Copperface

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, Copperface said:

That's because the overarching planning framework has a projected timescale, but the linear measurement of where we are within that framework is elastic due to developing situations. The framework remains valid.

The timescale for vaccinations is much the same as it always was. 

The amount of infection and its transmissibility have changed hugely.

Again:

16 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

The whole of your prediction stands on restrictions of some level continuing after deaths and hospitalisations aren't a major issue - which only leaves the rate and number of infections as the reason for them.

And when the ability to infect within the community is increased, everything of your prediction has stayed the same. It's rather amazing.

[Copperface]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

The timescale for vaccinations is much the same as it always was. 

The amount of infection and its transmissibility have changed hugely.

Again:

Because the rate of infection and spread has a direct correlation to hospital admissions and then capacity.

[eFestivals]

6 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Because the rate of infection and spread has a direct correlation to hospital admissions and then capacity.

not after the vaccine is rolled out to the most vulnerable, it doesn't.

Remember that Van Tam quote about 99% of deaths?
(perhaps not fully accurate, but it gives the general idea).

Edited January 11, 2021 by eFestivals

[Copperface]

Just now, eFestivals said:

not after the vaccine is rolled out to the most vulnerable, it doesn't.

Remember that Van Tam quote about 99%?
(perhaps not fully accurate, but it gives the general idea).

This, then, is the fundamental disagreement. It does, and Whitty has repeated it this morning at least twice that I've heard.

Expert opinion is that the spread has to be contained even once the 'vulnerable' have been vaccinated. 

[fraybentos1]

4 minutes ago, Copperface said:

This, then, is the fundamental disagreement. It does, and Whitty has repeated it this morning at least twice that I've heard.

Expert opinion is that the spread has to be contained even once the 'vulnerable' have been vaccinated. 

Whitty has been wrong about plenty tbf. A few months ago he said we probably wouldn't have a vaccine until winter 2021. He was a year out.

[eFestivals]

5 minutes ago, Copperface said:

This, then, is the fundamental disagreement. It does, and Whitty has repeated it this morning at least twice that I've heard.

Your fundamental disagreement with what I've said is you claiming the vaccine has no effect on how many end up in hospital. :lol: 

 

5 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Expert opinion is that the spread has to be contained even once the 'vulnerable' have been vaccinated. 

No shit sherlock.

Meanwhile there's a govt who aren't experts and who have different priorities.

[Copperface]

4 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Your fundamental disagreement with what I've said is you claiming the vaccine has no effect on how many end up in hospital. :lol: 

 

No shit sherlock.

Meanwhile there's a govt who aren't experts and who have different priorities.

No, as far as I know I've never claimed that at all. A rollout of a vaccine in conjunction with other measures will reduce demand on NHS resources, but gradually, as the programme continues. It's not immediate. 

Correct on the government. But they have backed down in every case so far. And they cannot operate in isolation in a connected world. It is in the economic interest of the country to control transmission rates in a global context -it's an international effort not solely the UK.