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Will the 2021 festival go ahead?


JoeyT
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Glastonbury 2021   

434 members have voted

  1. 1. Following the Oxford Vaccine news will it go ahead?

    • Yes - I 100% believe
      43
    • Yes - I think so but not close to 100%. Need to see how the roll out progresses.
      158
    • Maybe - I'm 50/50
      87
    • Unlikely - Even with the latest news I think it's unlikely to take place
      79
    • No - The vaccine news is great but I can't see 200k people being allowed at Worthy Farm in June.
      67


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22 minutes ago, kalifire said:

It wouldn’t be a calendar forecast as much as “when we reach X, we’ll move to Y” as a set of restrictions. It’s really the only logical way they can do it. They have no real control over when the data reaches a key point, but they can plan what to do when they get there and make that information public so businesses can start to plan as we get towards a target. 

Those businesses would be able to plan to some extent, but even that would be better than absolutely nothing, which is what we currently have, apart from some vague waffle about 'vulnerable' and 'vaccinated'.

Needs specific metrics to be counted each week such as:


Hospital admission rates

NHS capacity and/or overload

Transmission and infection rates R number

Death rates (important but hospital admissions are more key)

Initial vaccination rates and ratios in key groups (Groups 1-9 in Phase 1) - outstanding non vaccinated numbers

Vaccination rates of second administered doses. (J&J separate)

Presence of variants and impact on vaccinated/non vaccinated/previously infected 

Vaccine supply chain prediction several months in advance.

Other businesses will also depend on international infection/vaccination rates as well.

Once you get to Groups 1-9 fully X2 vaccinated plus 65-70% national population you're in a really good place.

 

Specific metrics within those groups could be used to impose/lift restrictions on specific business areas.

But important to realise that they work both ways. Restrictions may need to be reimposed is some metrics start going the wrong way, so there won't be any concrete guarantees and that will also complicate planning..

 

 

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2 hours ago, Copperface said:

Those businesses would be able to plan to some extent, but even that would be better than absolutely nothing, which is what we currently have, apart from some vague waffle about 'vulnerable' and 'vaccinated'.

Needs specific metrics to be counted each week such as:


Hospital admission rates

NHS capacity and/or overload

Transmission and infection rates R number

Death rates (important but hospital admissions are more key)

Initial vaccination rates and ratios in key groups (Groups 1-9 in Phase 1) - outstanding non vaccinated numbers

Vaccination rates of second administered doses. (J&J separate)

Presence of variants and impact on vaccinated/non vaccinated/previously infected 

Vaccine supply chain prediction several months in advance.

Other businesses will also depend on international infection/vaccination rates as well.

Once you get to Groups 1-9 fully X2 vaccinated plus 65-70% national population you're in a really good place.

 

Specific metrics within those groups could be used to impose/lift restrictions on specific business areas.

But important to realise that they work both ways. Restrictions may need to be reimposed is some metrics start going the wrong way, so there won't be any concrete guarantees and that will also complicate planning..

 

 

In listing so many metrics it highlights the complexity of generating an X = Y scenario when it comes to restrictions.

Edited by Lycra
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40 minutes ago, Lycra said:

In listing so many metrics it highlights the complexity of generating an X = Y scenario when it comes to restrictions.

It is complex, but there's really only eight key figures above needed and they are collated anyway .

Just put it all on a risk matrix and match it up to various business areas that have their own threat and risk matrix. Add the figures and the general considerations as to whether to open up or restrict a certain area becomes clearer. 

They'll soon have all these numbers. Trouble is, do they want to publish them?

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25 minutes ago, Mouseboy11 said:

The Times & The Mail both saying that Government sources have told them that it’ll likely be May Bank Holiday before hospitality reopens, with social distancing in place. 
 

I’d say there’s very little hope of Glastonbury going ahead if so.

100%, if pubs are only opening in May, then I don't think there's any chance of Glastonbury going ahead.

That said, I think keeping pubs shut until May is quite dangerous, as once deaths and hospitalisations start to come down which they inevitably will with the vaccine roll out, then public compliance with the rules will definitely begin to wane. With pubs shut, people will just socialise at their homes, so it makes much more sense to encourage people to socialise in the more covid secure pubs/restaurants, than in homes, while also clearly supporting the economy. Can't see there being any pubs left if they need to remain closed for another 5 months!

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29 minutes ago, Copperface said:

It is complex, but there's really only eight key figures above needed and they are collated anyway .

Just put it all on a risk matrix and match it up to various business areas that have their own threat and risk matrix. Add the figures and the general considerations as to whether to open up or restrict a certain area becomes clearer. 

They'll soon have all these numbers. Trouble is, do they want to publish them?

Members of Sage have already given the expectations of the way ahead so it's difficult for government to come up with a plan which raises optimism for gigs/festivals this summer. The problem goes beyond what's happening on the UK however as so much of the music industry is interlinked across Europe, and even further afield. Countries will reopen at different times and this places an additional component  arranging band tours, gigs & festivals. Many will want to get out and back on the road but equally some many be more cautious. And some may not want to tour again until the pandemic is all over and they can do it like before. 🤔

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Just now, Lycra said:

Members of Sage have already given the expectations of the way ahead so it's difficult for government to come up with a plan which raises optimism for gigs/festivals this summer. The problem goes beyond what's happening on the UK however as so much of the music industry is interlinked across Europe, and even further afield. Countries will reopen at different times and this places an additional component  arranging band tours, gigs & festivals. Many will want to get out and back on the road but equally some many be more cautious. And some may not want to tour again until the pandemic is all over and they can do it like before. 🤔

Said all this before. Repeatedly. Since early last year. Many times.

Late summer is where it's at for the really big stuff but, as have said before, far more effective to basically mothball those and go large in 2022 when there should be far more certainty.

 

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9 minutes ago, Lycra said:

Members of Sage have already given the expectations of the way ahead so it's difficult for government to come up with a plan which raises optimism for gigs/festivals this summer. The problem goes beyond what's happening on the UK however as so much of the music industry is interlinked across Europe, and even further afield. Countries will reopen at different times and this places an additional component  arranging band tours, gigs & festivals. Many will want to get out and back on the road but equally some many be more cautious. And some may not want to tour again until the pandemic is all over and they can do it like before. 🤔

It doesn’t make sense to import anything for a festival from overseas other than acts, and we can manage without those for one year.

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25 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

100%, if pubs are only opening in May, then I don't think there's any chance of Glastonbury going ahead.

That said, I think keeping pubs shut until May is quite dangerous, as once deaths and hospitalisations start to come down which they inevitably will with the vaccine roll out, then public compliance with the rules will definitely begin to wane. With pubs shut, people will just socialise at their homes, so it makes much more sense to encourage people to socialise in the more covid secure pubs/restaurants, than in homes, while also clearly supporting the economy. Can't see there being any pubs left if they need to remain closed for another 5 months!

Yeah this. Once the vaccination target for mid feb has been reached and the deaths/hospitalisations go down, I expect people to thing their nose more at social distancing.

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4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Yeah this. Once the vaccination target for mid feb has been reached and the deaths/hospitalisations go down, I expect people to thing their nose more at social distancing.

Once deaths and hospitalisations come down to manageable levels, if there are still restrictions from a public health point of view then there will be a clamour from people who say “but we don’t care about that”. 

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5 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Once deaths and hospitalisations come down to manageable levels, if there are still restrictions from a public health point of view then there will be a clamour from people who say “but we don’t care about that”. 

Govt have basically prioritised the over 60s. If they are vaccinated and the deaths are going down by end of Feb, I don't see how lockdowns will be accepted by the public.

Edited by zahidf
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1 hour ago, Mouseboy11 said:

The Times & The Mail both saying that Government sources have told them that it’ll likely be May Bank Holiday before hospitality reopens, with social distancing in place. 
 

I’d say there’s very little hope of Glastonbury going ahead if so.

Got any links to the articles ? Can't find them

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4 hours ago, Andy0808 v5 said:

The atmosphere at Glasto HQ must be terrible. They probably know the likely outcome, but can’t bite the bullet and cancel until it’s clearer.

Feel extremely bad for both the Eavii!

I think a lot of decisions are going to be made very late in the day this time round as we simply don’t know what will happen long term if the vaccinations happen at the pace they’re going, i could potentially see Glasto biting it but other festivals will find a way to happen in a capacity 

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Just now, faymondo said:

Granny might be saying sod the youngsters I want my life back !! 

Granny's of on her cruise while the youngsters are locked in their house

If the experts are saying that, maybe we should be vaccinating working age people first instead then?

Edited by zahidf
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25 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Yeah younger people and low risk people aren't going to agree to staying at home until autumn if granny isn't in the firing line.

Who, anywhere, is suggesting that staying at home until autumn is likely?

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6 minutes ago, zahidf said:

No they are literally saying young people and low risk people shouldn't leave home until they are vaccinated...

It does not. It says 'younger and lower risk'. You have changed what it says.

That follows on from talking about the 15 million most vulnerable, but they do not clearly mention the further 12 million in the rest of Phase one who are younger and slightly lower risk. By that stage we will be in the second dose phase, potentially doubling the amount of vaccinations needed, which results in a delayed target date.

Edited by Copperface
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Well despite being only 47 I was invited for a flu jab this year after a medical episode in late 2019. Assuming that means I am on the guest list for the C-19 jab a bit earlier than I would expect. 

Hopefully joining the grey revolution attending Glastonbury 2021 whilst the youngsters are stuck in the house (I jest of course) 

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