Will the 2021 festival go ahead?

[Avalon_Fields]

2 hours ago, kalifire said:

Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee - 5/1/20

Hour 1: Sacha Lord (Parklife & The Warehouse Project) & Anna Wade (Boomtown)
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1sC82KUwide-j2D3CYMcKUlAtfTWeSfTy/view?usp=sharing

Hour 2: Steve Heap (Ass. of Festival Organisers); Jamie Njoku-Goodwin (UK Music) & Paul Reed (Ass. of Independent Festivals)
https://drive.google.com/file/d/17yEp25086SGfbH1sF2hTJxmPoQf1Ss4o/view?usp=sharing

 

Thanks...was just about to post the links as I’ve been watching it. At least they’re talking about festivals !

[Lycra]

44 minutes ago, Avalon_Fields said:

Thanks...was just about to post the links as I’ve been watching it. At least they’re talking about festivals !

According to  BBC Sacha Lord said festivals were unviable below 100% capacity and incompatible with social distancing. Seems to me like he's giving them a reason not to come up with an insurance scheme. Too many obstacles!

[DeanoL]

11 minutes ago, Lycra said:

According to  BBC Sacha Lord said festivals were unviable below 100% capacity and incompatible with social distancing. Seems to me like he's giving them a reason not to come up with an insurance scheme. Too many obstacles!

He did. It's mostly true though - I don't know many festivals not aiming to sell 100% of tickets and I think for most anything under 80% would be a failure. 

And I don't see how standing gigs can work with social distancing at all.

[Avalon_Fields]

10 minutes ago, Lycra said:

According to  BBC Sacha Lord said festivals were unviable below 100% capacity and incompatible with social distancing. Seems to me like he's giving them a reason not to come up with an insurance scheme. Too many obstacles!

Yes, I was encouraged it's being discussed but overall it didn't give me much hope. I've changed my attitude too, tending now to believe it may be for the best to wait until 2022 rather than an unsatisfactory 2021.

I'm clinging to the hope some smaller festivals in the autumn are much more viable options. 

[steviewevie]

wrong thread!

Edited January 5, 2021 by steviewevie

[Dusk1983]

7 hours ago, squirrelarmy said:

A lot of people are seeing this new lockdown as a negative in terms of the festival going ahead this year. 
 

It’s actually the opposite. A harsh lockdown now is exactly what is needed to get the numbers back under control. The timing is critical though. We should see significant drops for all contributing factors in 2-3 weeks time. Hopefully they will drop enough for them to give the go ahead on the build. 

You can’t come out of lockdown and go straight to 200k people in a festival. You’re living in fantasy land 

[Joshuwarr]

10 minutes ago, Dusk1983 said:

You can’t come out of lockdown and go straight to 200k people in a festival. You’re living in fantasy land 

Not sure they implied that, to be fair!

[priest17]

17 minutes ago, Dusk1983 said:

You can’t come out of lockdown and go straight to 200k people in a festival. You’re living in fantasy land 

What tier is that in?

[Andy0808 v5]

2 minutes ago, priest17 said:

What tier is that in?

Fantasy Island in Skegness is tier 4, so no luck if the festival is there either.

 

[thewayiam]

2 hours ago, Dusk1983 said:

You can’t come out of lockdown and go straight to 200k people in a festival. You’re living in fantasy land 

Exactly this. Numbers will go down if people listen. Covid itself won't be stopped from a spread until everyone is tested or else you'll continuously get self isolation for everyone of a younger and not critical age that still gets it. 

[Joshuwarr]

1 minute ago, thewayiam said:

Exactly this. Numbers will go down if people listen. Covid itself won't be stopped from a spread until everyone is tested or else you'll continuously get self isolation for everyone of a younger and not critical age that still gets it. 

Whilst I believe the chances of big summer festivals is minimal, I think you're missing the point a little. We do not need zero cases and no spread to get festivals back. Unfortunately there will come a point when there will be a discussion about a level we find acceptable (in terms of cases and deaths) - just as we accept with the flu. We are nowhere near that point yet but covid will not be "stopped" when Glastonbury (hopefully) returns.

[thewayiam]

27 minutes ago, Joshuwarr said:

Whilst I believe the chances of big summer festivals is minimal, I think you're missing the point a little. We do not need zero cases and no spread to get festivals back. Unfortunately there will come a point when there will be a discussion about a level we find acceptable (in terms of cases and deaths) - just as we accept with the flu. We are nowhere near that point yet but covid will not be "stopped" when Glastonbury (hopefully) returns.

You are correct but there will need to be a zero death toll on it and numbers of cases down to well below 50 a day in my opinion. And for this to happen the majority festival attendee will be the last as they can recover the quickest.

[sisco]

Just now, thewayiam said:

You are correct but there will need to be a zero death toll on it and numbers of cases down to well below 50 a day in my opinion. And for this to happen the majority festival attendee will be the last as they can recover the quickest.

Cases will be in the thousands for ages.  The death figure will massively drop though.  Whitty pretty much said today that this will be ongoing like the flu and we’ll have to accept X amount of deaths because of it

[squirrelarmy]

If we wait for 0 covid cases & deaths before we party outside then we might as well all buy VR headsets and party digitally because we won’t be socialising in public again. 
 

If this lockdown works as planned, hopefully the case numbers will be at a low enough level for the festival to give the green light for the build. The timing will be close, I don’t know what the final deadline is for things to be put in place. It’s not likely to be after February though. 
 

There still will be lots of cases around that time, we’re just hoping that the indications are there that the vaccines are preventing deaths, cases are plummeting and all signs are pointing towards a resumption of summer fun. 
 

The festival can’t wait for Easter to give the go ahead but if they believe restrictions are likely to be lifted by May then they can put the wheels in motion to get things moving much earlier than that, I’m pretty sure they will already have verbal agreements in place for everything required.

If the deadline comes and things aren’t under control at that point then they will pull the plug.

If anyone knows what that deadline is likely to be then we’ll have a better idea of a timeline. 

[stuartbert two hats]

10 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

If we wait for 0 covid cases & deaths before we party outside then we might as well all buy VR headsets and party digitally because we won’t be socialising in public again. 
 

If this lockdown works as planned, hopefully the case numbers will be at a low enough level for the festival to give the green light for the build. The timing will be close, I don’t know what the final deadline is for things to be put in place. It’s not likely to be after February though. 
 

There still will be lots of cases around that time, we’re just hoping that the indications are there that the vaccines are preventing deaths, cases are plummeting and all signs are pointing towards a resumption of summer fun. 
 

The festival can’t wait for Easter to give the go ahead but if they believe restrictions are likely to be lifted by May then they can put the wheels in motion to get things moving much earlier than that, I’m pretty sure they will already have verbal agreements in place for everything required.

If the deadline comes and things aren’t under control at that point then they will pull the plug.

If anyone knows what that deadline is likely to be then we’ll have a better idea of a timeline. 

I'm not sure you get what the plan is for this lockdown. It's to make the underavoidable catastrophe slightly less severe. This isn't about getting really low numbers, it's about getting some capacity back in the ICU.

2022 will be the best festival yet.

[squirrelarmy]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I'm not sure you get what the plan is for this lockdown. It's to make the underavoidable catastrophe slightly less severe. This isn't about getting really low numbers, it's about getting some capacity back in the ICU.

2022 will be the best festival yet.

If you based everything on the numbers right now then things look bleak. The combination of Christmas, NYE and winter was always going to mean this would be the peak of the virus. If you look at where things were 5 months ago you can easily imagine we’ll be in a similar position in another 5 months. 
 

The issue is that Glastonbury has to make a decision for the summer long before we get to that point. My fingers are crossed that we’re going to get the signs that we can party again this summer. 

[stuartbert two hats]

3 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

If you based everything on the numbers right now then things look bleak. The combination of Christmas, NYE and winter was always going to mean this would be the peak of the virus. If you look at where things were 5 months ago you can easily imagine we’ll be in a similar position in another 5 months. 
 

The issue is that Glastonbury has to make a decision for the summer long before we get to that point. My fingers are crossed that we’re going to get the signs that we can party again this summer. 

Gotta love your optimism. I'm still hoping to go out on the piss in August. That'll do me.

[a6l6e6x]

I think the lockdown is good for the festival but at the same time doesn't give them a large window to get the green light. Although the 1st lockdown last year was effective in bringing the cases down there are a few more factors that suggest to me this one won't get the numbers as low as they would need to be for this to go ahead such as:

Colder weather helping the virus spread 
2 more variations of the virus which are both more transmittable
Lockdown not as harsh as the first (takeaways all open, supermarkets not doing the queueing system from what I've seen, facebook scientific experts generally less likely to obey the rules)

Although the rollout of the vaccine is go I personally don't see this government hitting any targets any time soon. Earliest that glasto could get the go ahead is march/april which for me is too late to start the build

Sorry to be a negative nancy, I hope my verdict above is totally wrong and I'm an idiot

[Ayrshire Chris]

Select committee on bbc Parliament at the moment 

[FestivalJamie]

I do admire people’s optimism on here and it’s something I struggle to have but in any reasonable scenario I cannot see 2021 taking place.

I have lost all faith in the government in this crisis, but assuming they meet their vaccination targets (first 4 priority groups done by mid feb and all 9 priority groups to receive first dose by April 5), then all vulnerable groups would have received their first dose. We can expect to be in the tiering system at this point with considerable relaxation of measures and most areas in tiers 1 and 2.

However, I cannot see the government and scientific advisers endorsing a mass gathering until all vulnerable categories have received 2nd dose. This means we need to add up to 12 weeks to April 5th which takes us to July 5th. That is the most reasonable time frame I can see for social distancing to be scrapped, no masks and mass gatherings reinstated- once vulnerable groups have been provided with 2 shots and waited the adequate time post 2nd shot for long lasting immunity. I cannot see mass gatherings taking place when people aged 50+ have not received dose 2 and only received 1 dose of vaccine.

And as I say, I see this to be the most optimistic time frame, as this assumes the government can meet their vaccination targets. I can possibly see one day outdoor festivals taking place with mass testing in advance and no-reentry. But camping festivals where people come in and out I think are extremely unlikely to take place this summer.

Edited January 6, 2021 by FestivalJamie

[Leyrulion]

2 hours ago, FestivalJamie said:

I do admire people’s optimism on here and it’s something I struggle to have but in any reasonable scenario I cannot see 2021 taking place.

I have lost all faith in the government in this crisis, but assuming they meet their vaccination targets (first 4 priority groups done by mid feb and all 9 priority groups to receive first dose by April 5), then all vulnerable groups would have received their first dose. We can expect to be in the tiering system at this point with considerable relaxation of measures and most areas in tiers 1 and 2.

However, I cannot see the government and scientific advisers endorsing a mass gathering until all vulnerable categories have received 2nd dose. This means we need to add up to 12 weeks to April 5th which takes us to July 5th. That is the most reasonable time frame I can see for social distancing to be scrapped, no masks and mass gatherings reinstated- once vulnerable groups have been provided with 2 shots and waited the adequate time post 2nd shot for long lasting immunity. I cannot see mass gatherings taking place when people aged 50+ have not received dose 2 and only received 1 dose of vaccine.

And as I say, I see this to be the most optimistic time frame, as this assumes the government can meet their vaccination targets. I can possibly see one day outdoor festivals taking place with mass testing in advance and no-reentry. But camping festivals where people come in and out I think are extremely unlikely to take place this summer.

I actually think this timeline is relatively realistic. Could be earlier by a few weeks but we're only talking a couple of weeks. 

March- really seeing the effect of vaccines

March-May/June de-escalation through the tier system

June/July much more freedom (like July last year but with some gigs)

 

[Lycra]

6 hours ago, squirrelarmy said:

If you based everything on the numbers right now then things look bleak. The combination of Christmas, NYE and winter was always going to mean this would be the peak of the virus. If you look at where things were 5 months ago you can easily imagine we’ll be in a similar position in another 5 months. 
 

The issue is that Glastonbury has to make a decision for the summer long before we get to that point. My fingers are crossed that we’re going to get the signs that we can party again this summer. 

Just read this morning that Boris yesterday could not guarantee children would be back in school by summer. If the government does not believe it will get children, who are less prone to covid, back to school in a semi-controlled environment, then festivals have little chance. Exposes government thinking and offers no comfort to festival organisers.

[kalifire]

The current lockdown in England is very important because it will tilt the curve and start to see numbers reduce, but it’s not going to bring those numbers anywhere near low enough within six weeks. It took Melbourne several months to stamp out less than 800 cases a day, with a lockdown even harsher than this. Even with the vaccinations, I can’t imagine any events of sizeable numbers happening until late in the year. It would take a miracle for Glastonbury to happen before 2022. 

[Ryan1984]

4 hours ago, Leyrulion said:

I actually think this timeline is relatively realistic. Could be earlier by a few weeks but we're only talking a couple of weeks. 

March- really seeing the effect of vaccines

March-May/June de-escalation through the tier system

June/July much more freedom (like July last year but with some gigs)

 

Do you think a smaller festival (e.g. 2000 Trees - 5000 people) could happen in July? I hope so but it’s so hard to tell...

[Lycra]

39 minutes ago, kalifire said:

The current lockdown in England is very important because it will tilt the curve and start to see numbers reduce, but it’s not going to bring those numbers anywhere near low enough within six weeks. It took Melbourne several months to stamp out less than 800 cases a day, with a lockdown even harsher than this. Even with the vaccinations, I can’t imagine any events of sizeable numbers happening until late in the year. It would take a miracle for Glastonbury to happen before 2022. 

Yes it's going to be a long way back. SARS-CoV-2 is now endemic in the UK, European and global population. Managing the virus and hopefully eliminating it by vaccination & good health practises will be a lengthy process. It could take up to 80-90% of the UK population to be vaccinated before victory can be claimed.