Will the 2021 festival go ahead?

[thewayiam]

10 hours ago, incident said:

I think you need to revisit your definition of the words "official" and "NHS resource".

 

7 hours ago, Paul ™ said:

Official? 😅

Agreed

Pedantic much?! 

It's not like it's just a made up site that no one is feeding off. Where do think NHS are actually getting their info from?, what happens when there is a delay etc etc.

I'm facing the music at least with reality. Whereas some people think the vaccine will have reached enough people for the festival to go ahead. Well, if you work for the NHS or you are over 60 then yes. Might be pushing that for a 200k ticket shifter though.

[Paul ™]

3 hours ago, thewayiam said:

 

Pedantic much?! 

It's not like it's just a made up site that no one is feeding off. Where do think NHS are actually getting their info from?

Are you trying to say the NHS are using omnicalculator to work out their info? 😂

Not pedantic, just rubbishing your claim that you got your info form official NHS resources.

[Lycra]

13 hours ago, zahidf said:

Yeah but they'll be an indication as to how the vaccination rollout is going in terms of numbers. And they'll be some indications with the vaccinated how its going and if the first dose offers substantial protection.

Data on numbers vaccinated should become available but it will be too soon for real info re numbers protected and projections on hospitalizations/deaths. There is a lot of hope but still too many uncertainties. Then we have the new corona variant which is leading to a growing number of infections, particularly in the younger age groups. These are presenting in much greater numbers in hospital. The young are not scheduled for vaccination until much later in 2021.

[zahidf]

5 minutes ago, Lycra said:

Data on numbers vaccinated should become available but it will be too soon for real info re numbers protected and projections on hospitalizations/deaths. There is a lot of hope but still too many uncertainties. Then we have the new corona variant which is leading to a growing number of infections, particularly in the younger age groups. These are presenting in much greater numbers in hospital. The young are not scheduled for vaccination until much later in 2021.

Thats a small indication from South Africa but no hard evidence of it in the young yet. One reason for more hospitalisations could be that SA have no lockdown in place the last few months. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

The new variant doesn’t have to be a bad thing once enough of the vulnerable are vaccinated, it could be a good thing.

[Lycra]

14 hours ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

There is the the potential for 2m vaccinations to be carried out a week, which is the same amount of confirmed Covid cases we’ve had in nearly a year, not a bad ratio. We’d already done 500k on Monday with a vaccine significantly harder to administer on a mass scale. Once it gets going it won’t take long to make a difference, obviously it won’t be instant.

Too much is being made about the PB being hard to administer. It's not. It's all a matter of logistics. It's ok at normal freezer or room temp for a day or more. Vaccination to date has been slow. Hampered by a shortage of vaccine and a shortage of staff to do the vaccinations. Your already knackered hospital staff are being asked to do extra shifts to do vaccinations when the already done 60hrs that week!

[Lycra]

15 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Thats a small indication from South Africa but no hard evidence of it in the young yet. One reason for more hospitalisations could be that SA have no lockdown in place the last few months. 

We only have to look at our patients to see the effect. Younger & younger patients are presenting and we are now seeing the deaths of the children of those who have already passed.

When you think about it is strange the effect covid has had. In the first wave Mrs L & I used to talk about all the deaths on a shift, now we very really we really do. You become desensitized. All we talk about is being knackered & Mrs L's bad back!

Edited December 24, 2020 by Lycra

[Lycra]

18 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

The new variant doesn’t have to be a bad thing once enough of the vulnerable are vaccinated, it could be a good thing.

Right now it's an unknown. To what degree will be vaccine protect against it 🤔🤞🤞🤞🤞

[DeanoL]

 

22 hours ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

It’s pretty binary though, if Glastonbury can go ahead it will go ahead as normal. It wouldn’t bother me to be tested either, I don’t think it will happen, but I’d we had to be so be it.

It won’t be normal if it does happen. Some things are unavoidable: most attendees will not have been vaccinated, and it will be one of if not the first such post-pandemic events of its size in the world.

Even if no rules are in place, guidance will still hedge bets with “be careful” and even if you are able to throw of a year of conditioning to avoid unnecessary contact and be conscious of your personal space and what you touch, tens of thousands won’t. It’ll be weird regardless (unless maybe it happens in September.)

[DeanoL]

At this point I think we are looking at 2021 being officially postponed to 2022, with organisers looking at a smaller but scaleable event in June or September 2021, initially sold and marketed as a one-day socially distanced, seated Pyramid stage thing, with live streaming tickets a available (or just broadcast on BBC). With the potential that if rules and numbers allow, it could be scaled up to something approaching a late 90s size Glasto.

[zahidf]

Some numbers on the current vaccinations

 

 

 

 

 

[Matt42]

My mums friends daughter (lol) got her jab yesterday. Works in the NHS. 27 years old.

Edited December 24, 2020 by Matt42

[incident]

36 minutes ago, zahidf said:

That tweet is making a huge and questionable assumption that the Oxford/AZ vaccine is actually offered to those over 80 once it's approved.

Given that the 1.5 dose regiment is shown to be both more effective and efficient, especially at reducing transmission, then scientifically it'd make infinitely more sense to have that as the preferred option - but that regiment hasn't been tested on anyone over 55 and so it wouldn't be right to offer it to people 70+. They'd need to be offered the far less effective but tested 2 dose regiment.

I think there's a pretty strong scientific justification that over ~70 are exclusively offered Pfizer (and Moderna when it lands) until more data is available, and that the Oxford/AZ supplies are used at 1.5 doses to start straight away on the younger population as that regiment can be shown to significantly cut infectiousness. But obviously these are complex questions and at least part of the reason why they're taking their time analysing the data and options. And obviously there's a reasonable chance that Boris etc decide that politically they don't want to be seen to vaccinate low risk groups when high risk groups are still waiting.

[zahidf]

11 minutes ago, incident said:

That tweet is making a huge and questionable assumption that the Oxford/AZ vaccine is actually offered to those over 80 once it's approved.

Given that the 1.5 dose regiment is shown to be both more effective and efficient, especially at reducing transmission, then scientifically it'd make infinitely more sense to have that as the preferred option - but that regiment hasn't been tested on anyone over 55 and so it wouldn't be right to offer it to people 70+. They'd need to be offered the far less effective but tested 2 dose regiment.

I think there's a pretty strong scientific justification that over ~70 are exclusively offered Pfizer (and Moderna when it lands) until more data is available, and that the Oxford/AZ supplies are used at 1.5 doses to start straight away on the younger population as that regiment can be shown to significantly cut infectiousness. But obviously these are complex questions and at least part of the reason why they're taking their time analysing the data and options. And obviously there's a reasonable chance that Boris etc decide that politically they don't want to be seen to vaccinate low risk groups when high risk groups are still waiting.

Oh I agree but 62% effacy in 2 dose regime is probably good enough for the oldies and what I'm expecting to be approved to save lives. But be interested if they do change the vaccination criteria

[incident]

7 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Oh I agree but 62% effacy in 2 dose regime is probably good enough for the oldies and what I'm expecting to be approved to save lives. But be interested if they do change the vaccination criteria

Thing is that the 62% vs 90% efficacy for infections is only half the question in this case.

They also need to consider the much bigger difference in preventing asymptomatic transmissions - 4% vs 59% - for me that alone is the clincher as to why they need to use 1.5 doses as standard as it helps not just those getting the vaccine but potentially everyone they come in contact with.

[DTichborne]

I do not share Michael's optimism. It needs to be postponed another year. I don't want to be stood in a field when a part-consumed pint comes flying over my head. 

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, incident said:

Thing is that the 62% vs 90% efficacy for infections is only half the question in this case.

They also need to consider the much bigger difference in preventing asymptomatic transmissions - 4% vs 59% - for me that alone is the clincher as to why they need to use 1.5 doses as standard as it helps not just those getting the vaccine but potentially everyone they come in contact with.

Not enough evidence I would have though for 1.5 doses. Not enough people in that study 

[incident]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

Not enough evidence I would have though for 1.5 doses. Not enough people in that study 

Yes there's not enough cases that those numbers can be taken as solid - more cases almost certainly would change the percentages a bit.

But I do think there's enough data to say that we can be reasonably confident that 1.5 dose regiment is more effective at preventing transmission - even if that drops to say 40% (and I doubt it'd drop that far) then it's still worthwhile.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

1 hour ago, DeanoL said:

 

It won’t be normal if it does happen. Some things are unavoidable: most attendees will not have been vaccinated, and it will be one of if not the first such post-pandemic events of its size in the world.

Even if no rules are in place, guidance will still hedge bets with “be careful” and even if you are able to throw of a year of conditioning to avoid unnecessary contact and be conscious of your personal space and what you touch, tens of thousands won’t. It’ll be weird regardless (unless maybe it happens in September.)

I think most people won’t care, and if they do they won’t go. 

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I think most people won’t care, and if they do they won’t go. 

Yeah.... I think most people will still go and party.

[Crazyfool01]

18 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Yeah.... I think most people will still go and party.

it might take me a little time to adjust .... hopefully that little time will be before G 🙂 

[zahidf]

I'm not saying UK scientists are the same but what if the real number of vaccinations needed are less than what they are saying?

 

[kalifire]

2 hours ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I think most people won’t care, and if they do they won’t go. 

A Glastonbury full of people who don’t care isn’t a normal Glastonbury. 

[zahidf]

 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

31 minutes ago, kalifire said:

A Glastonbury full of people who don’t care isn’t a normal Glastonbury. 

Don’t care about the virus. This a forum, naturally forums attract the more extreme views, that isn’t criticism by the way it’s just how things are. The vast majority of the general public put up with restrictions because they understand the need for them, but once they’re lifted they go about their business even though the virus is still there. If the pubs were opened now restriction free, they’d be rammed. If Glastonbury is on in the summer the overriding majority of the 135k people won’t be giving it a second thought.

Rightly or wrongly the vast majority of the public do not live in fear of Covid, this forum isn’t an accurate reflection of society as a whole. 

Edited December 24, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton