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Will the 2021 festival go ahead?


JoeyT
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Glastonbury 2021   

434 members have voted

  1. 1. Following the Oxford Vaccine news will it go ahead?

    • Yes - I 100% believe
      43
    • Yes - I think so but not close to 100%. Need to see how the roll out progresses.
      158
    • Maybe - I'm 50/50
      87
    • Unlikely - Even with the latest news I think it's unlikely to take place
      79
    • No - The vaccine news is great but I can't see 200k people being allowed at Worthy Farm in June.
      67


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47 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

With the supplier thing, could this not be delayed this year, given that if Glastonbury can't go ahead, then it's not as if the suppliers will be missing out on any other work, given if Glastonbury can't go ahead, then other events they'd be supplying to won't be able to go ahead either? As a result, is it not in the supplier's interests to work to a slightly tighter timeline this year in the possibility of hopefully getting the green light and being able to go ahead, rather than not being flexible and missing out on a load of potential business from Glastonbury? I'm sure it's not as simple as what I've just said but was just a thought I had. 

It's tricky because you can definitely say that for any labour involved once agreed, but when it comes to stuff that has to be done beforehand, or raw materials that have to be sourced, it gets difficult. You have to trace back the supply chain.

Like, yes, one company provide most of the stages. So it's easy to say they should just allow Glastonbury to have a contract with them that says "if the festival doesn't go ahead, Glasto get their money back". Because if Glasto isn't going ahead, it's not like they could be working at a festival elsewhere - none of them will be happening.

But then what does this stage company do. Sure, they own the stages, which will otherwise sit unused, but what else do they do? They clean, load, transport, assemble, test and maintain those stages. They probably don't have full time employees doing all that. They'll rely on contractors, including hauliers to load and transport the stuff. Those people are not working in the "festival industry" - they could easily find other work the last weekend of June hauling other stuff. So those people can't be booked on a "only if the festival goes ahead" basis - they'll need a guarantee. So who shoulders that risk? 

That's a simple example, but you have to trace all this back for every element of the festival (any raw materials needed for stuff will be a big unrecoverable expense) to find out what expenses could be avoided via a goodwill agreement and what can't.

You could do that, then agree to split that risk somehow between all the parties involved, but it would be very difficult.

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58 minutes ago, Superscally said:

I've done some basic maths. If you're 60, at current rates you should expect to be vaccinated and fully immune by the end of June, judging by that calculator. As long as people aren't selfish and booming off to other countries that aren't as far along in terms of vaccinations, surely we can just pretty much crack on as normal, given the likely low death rate and impact on hospitals. Please don't think I'm flippant, but once the vulnerable and health/care workers are safe, surely for the sake of people's livelihoods and sanity, we're good to go. Glasto is happening. 

Because 1 in 100 young healthy people who catch it get hospitalised - so even if we let it spread around the population, it will have to be done in a controlled fashion to stop the NHS getting overwhelmed.

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1 hour ago, DeanoL said:

Because 1 in 100 young healthy people who catch it get hospitalised - so even if we let it spread around the population, it will have to be done in a controlled fashion to stop the NHS getting overwhelmed.

Is this based as a % of those who have tested positive? As we know that there are loads of cases of Covid that are never confirmed by a positive test, especially those that are asymptommatic (they said on Newsnight last night I think that up to 80% of young people are asymptommatic). So when we include those that haven't had a confirmed case/those that are asymptomattic, then I imagine this would mean it would be lower than 1 in 100 getting hospitalised.

Edited by tigger123
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I had initially put the 'yes, but maybe we'll see' option... But now I'm feeling more like a no.

Sorry to be a negative Nigel, but I don't think there will be any major festivals running as normal until maybe 2023.

I feel like there will be lasting problems once the virus has pretty much been beaten, not to mention other political cock-ups like Brexit.

Maybe it's just me in a negative mindset at the moment, as my work decided to mix the bubbles 2 days before we finish, and someone that was put in my area tested positive yesterday... So now I am in isolation until the 27th and I'm spending Christmas at home instead of with my girlfriend and her family 😞

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8 minutes ago, K2SO said:

I had initially put the 'yes, but maybe we'll see' option... But now I'm feeling more like a no.

Sorry to be a negative Nigel, but I don't think there will be any major festivals running as normal until maybe 2023.

I feel like there will be lasting problems once the virus has pretty much been beaten, not to mention other political cock-ups like Brexit.

Maybe it's just me in a negative mindset at the moment, as my work decided to mix the bubbles 2 days before we finish, and someone that was put in my area tested positive yesterday... So now I am in isolation until the 27th and I'm spending Christmas at home instead of with my girlfriend and her family 😞

2023!?

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3 hours ago, eFestivals said:

the licence allows as many festivals at any time of year as the Eavii might want.

However, there's a strong expectation from the council that there won't be more than one a year, and with a year off now and then.

So in theory they could move the dates without any difficulties as far as the licence is concerned. 

There might be big difficulties with land availability, as well as suppliers and staff.

Thanks Neil, looks like there might be a glimmer of hope, although I won’t hedge my bets.

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25 minutes ago, K2SO said:

I had initially put the 'yes, but maybe we'll see' option... But now I'm feeling more like a no.

Sorry to be a negative Nigel, but I don't think there will be any major festivals running as normal until maybe 2023.

I feel like there will be lasting problems once the virus has pretty much been beaten, not to mention other political cock-ups like Brexit.

Maybe it's just me in a negative mindset at the moment, as my work decided to mix the bubbles 2 days before we finish, and someone that was put in my area tested positive yesterday... So now I am in isolation until the 27th and I'm spending Christmas at home instead of with my girlfriend and her family 😞

Nah I think end of summer 2021 is a good reasonable chance. 2022 for sure id have thought!

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58 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

Is this based as a % of those who have tested positive? As we know that there are loads of cases of Covid that are never confirmed by a positive test, especially those that asymptommatic (they said on Newsnight last night I think that up to 80% of young people are asymptommatic). So when we include those that haven't had a confirmed case/those that are asymptomattic, then I imagine this would mean it would be lower than 1 in 100 getting hospitalised.

Yeah that 1 in 100 number sounds fake as fuck 

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48 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Yeah that 1 in 100 number sounds fake as fuck 

Quite.

While I can't be arsed to find the raw data to generate a real percentage, this is the current state of play with regards to admissions by age, and shows how hospitalisations are massively skewed to the older population.

image.png.ab99d37dd59a3c6751463951a29e41c7.png

Source - ONS & PHE

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