Will the 2021 festival go ahead?

[Copperface]

1 hour ago, Harry49 said:

Hardly ideal or fair but can not see another solution unless vaccinations have been rolled out to a large percentage of population.

my bother law is a gp practice manager and They are forecasting Sept for under 50s. First vaccines were last week.

That's the estimated timescale I've been getting as well from docs - Ist Phase (the 9 groups defined as at risk, over 50s and other conditions etc numbering approx 25 million) more likely to have got the bulk done by early autumn.

[Radiochicken]

3 hours ago, xxialac said:

Let's pretend there are 100,000 people at the festival.

Testing means that only e.g. 10 positive people (through fake test, false negative, not being checked etc) get in as opposed to 100 (based on 0.1% of population having Covid on a given day).

This would dramatically reduce the number of subsequent infections. 

I do think testing is worthwhile and optically it might be what is needed to make everyone feel comfortable including key stakeholders like government/authorities that risks are being mitigated. 

And it undeniably will mitigate that risk. Will reduce it even more if there's also testing before you leave home, which would reduce the numbers turning up at the gate with it.

This is all theory, however, and ultimately, I suspect they will go for pre-testing only for all the reasons already mentioned on here.

Imagine you’ve done a pre-test, you feel great, super excited (it’s glastonbury!!), you’ve got no symptoms at all... but the test comes back positive. What do you do?

If there is any degree of self-reporting of the test results, I’d suggest a lot of people would ignore it. So, the amount you’ll stop will be far lower.

[Lycra]

29 minutes ago, Copperface said:

"support organisations’ transition back to usual operating mode from April 2021"

More like a graduated and gradual transition to normal starting from April, not full capacity in April, which ties in with everything we've seen before. April as a start on a long road to something like we know as normality.

Having read the DCMS press release I have to agree. The document outlines support which will available during a potential transition period begining April, commensurate with the new financial year. It does not say we will be back to normal, full theatres, cinemas, festivals etc. 

 

[Crazyfool01]

32 minutes ago, henry bear said:

The 'na na-na na-na-na-na's' at the end of Hey Jude won't be the same if we're all standing there in our scrubs

I’m not liking the negativity from Macca there ... he could at least throw in a few yeahs 

[tigger123]

Could they not have sniffer dogs on the gates, far more efficient/logistically practical than testing everyone when they get to site. Maybe a test before you arrive and then the dogs to sniff out those who've slipped through the initial testing net?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/12/covid-19-has-an-odour-and-the-dogs-are-detecting-it-meet-the-canine-super-squad-sniffing-out-the-virus

Edited December 12, 2020 by tigger123

[Crazyfool01]

3 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

Could they not have sniffer dogs on the gates, far more efficient/logistically practical than testing everyone when they get to site. Maybe a test before you arrive and then the dogs to sniff out those who've slipped through the initial testing net?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/12/covid-19-has-an-odour-and-the-dogs-are-detecting-it-meet-the-canine-super-squad-sniffing-out-the-virus

I saw that quite early on ... but it doesnt seem to have any timescales on it that I can see .... and how many dogs does it need to test 200,000 people presumably they need rests like drug dogs .... with 4 gates , i think this might be a difficult undertaking unfortunately .... but if I suddenly spot herds of dogs on the webcam I will happily revoke my comments 🙂 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

As far as I’m aware drug dogs can work for around 15 minutes at a time, then need a rest as they start to lose interest. They’re fine as a visual deterrent and providing the deterrent  of finding the odd unlucky person with drugs on them. Wouldn’t have thought they’d be ideal when they need to check everyone to be effective.

[zahidf]

2 hours ago, Leyrulion said:

Well this went down like a bucket of cold sick. 😂

If anything festivals have been  more positive post vaccine news  

But let's see.

[efcfanwirral]

7 hours ago, Copperface said:

That's the estimated timescale I've been getting as well from docs - Ist Phase (the 9 groups defined as at risk, over 50s and other conditions etc numbering approx 25 million) more likely to have got the bulk done by early autumn.

Is that based on the current approved vaccine, or with oxford included as well?

[zero000]

The Sunday Times are covering Glastonbury’s insurance issues for next year and have put it on the front cover for tomorrow. Stating they’re “begging” ministers. 

[efcfanwirral]

39 minutes ago, zero000 said:

The Sunday Times are covering Glastonbury’s insurance issues for next year and have put it on the front cover for tomorrow. Stating they’re “begging” ministers. 

A left wing festival that has tens of thousands of people chanting "fuck boris" and allowed Jeremy corbyn on the stage isn't going to get help from this government....

[RarerThanDandyB]

That’s the cover for people wondering: 

[Leyrulion]

29 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

A left wing festival that has tens of thousands of people chanting "fuck boris" and allowed Jeremy corbyn on the stage isn't going to get help from this government....

A left wing festival that generates 36 million in ticket sales and projects at least 100 million to the local economy.

I think the Tories will be keen to keep their new gains in the  south west from the lib Dems.

 

The very fact that Glastonbury is mentioned on the front page of something like the Sunday times shows it has a pull other festivals don't. 

 

[kalifire]

Glastonbury makes rescue plea to Boris Johnson

The rock festival is leading calls for government help as insurers refuse to cover live events next summer.

The festival crowds at Glastonbury used to chant: “Oh, Jeremy Corbyn.” Now the organisers of Britain’s biggest musical gathering have switched to a different refrain: “Please, Boris Johnson.”

The Somerset home of cutting-edge music and counter-culture rebellion has joined a long list of outdoor and indoor events that hope to resume activities next year but fear ruinous losses if they have to be cancelled because of Covid-19.

Continuing difficulties in obtaining cancellation insurance have left Glastonbury in the unaccustomed position of having to be polite to a Conservative government.

Corbyn was treated to a hero’s welcome at the festival in 2017. Then last year the grime artist Stormzy led the crowd in a chant of “F*** Boris”.

Emily Eavis, 41, who organises Glastonbury with her father, Michael, 85, said “it’s already getting tight” to prepare for next year’s festival, with insurers still reluctant to provide cancellation cover.

She said Glastonbury had “lost a substantial amount of money” this year. Michael warned in June, after this year’s event was cancelled, that a second cancellation next year would cause the festival to “seriously go bankrupt”.

The Eavises and other event organisers are pleading with ministers to launch an insurance scheme to fill the void left by commercial underwriters who refuse to offer contingency cover for events that might be cancelled because of the virus.

Insurers have been hit by claims for hundreds of millions of pounds since the first lockdown began shutting down public events in March, and argue that they cannot afford another hit.

Without insurance cover, event organisers warn they cannot take the risk of arranging festivities and losing millions if they are forced to cancel.

Despite the arrival of new vaccines and hopes that life may begin to return to normal in the spring, scientists warn it may be a year or more before the pandemic stops disrupting the social calendar.

“In a usual planning cycle we would already be well into organising the next festival,” Emily Eavis said.

“The best solution would be for the government to offer ... direct financial support in the event of Glastonbury, and other events, being forced to cancel once they’re well into the preparations.

“If the government can share the risk by offering direct financial support, then it gives everyone the opportunity to move forward with the planning in the hope that things will be safe to run in the summer, and in the knowledge that backing is available if we’re simply not in a position to go ahead,” she added.

Tickets for Glastonbury cost £265. Some 135,000 people paid a £50 deposit when they went on sale in October last year and tickets sold out in 34 minutes. Deposits have rolled over for next summer’s festival, although the line-up has not been announced. Emily Eavis has previously said it costs £40m to stage Glastonbury, with £2m going to charities.

Other event organisers have already put tickets on sale for next year, gambling that the issue will be resolved. “You’ve got to have balls to make something happen,” said John Giddings, promoter of the Isle of Wight festival in June.

The festival has already booked Lionel Richie, Lewis Capaldi and Duran Duran but as yet has no insurance cover.

“We would lose a fortune if it got cancelled because of the pandemic,” Giddings said. “It’s a calculated risk ... we believe we’re going to pull it off.”

Other singers already signed up for nationwide tours include Diana Ross, the girl band Little Mix and Bryan Adams.

Stormzy and Liam Gallagher have been booked to headline August festivals in Leeds and Reading.

Theatres are also worried. Sonia Friedman, the West End producer behind blockbuster shows such as The Book of Mormon and Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, said the lack of cover was the “number one reason why we won’t be able to come back”. Investors remain wary of backing productions that may be axed if there is a resurgence of the virus.

Sir Brendan Foster, the former Olympian and founder of the Great North Run, hopes nearly 60,000 people will take part in the half-marathon from Newcastle to South Shields in September, with 250,000 spectators on hand to prove “the country is getting back to normal”.

It would be the 40th time that Britain’s biggest mass sporting event has been staged but the race has also failed to find cancellation cover. “Thanks to the vaccine there is some hope there,” said Foster, 72. “Without insurance and without the government support, those hopes will be dashed.”

The Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport said: “We know these are challenging times for the live events sector and are working flat out to support it. We have invested £1bn so far through the culture recovery fund to protect tens of thousands of creative jobs ... with £400m more support still to come.”
 

- The Sunday Times, 13/12/20.

Edited December 13, 2020 by kalifire

[thewayiam]

2 hours ago, kalifire said:

Glastonbury makes rescue plea to Boris Johnson

The rock festival is leading calls for government help as insurers refuse to cover live events next summer.

The festival crowds at Glastonbury used to chant: “Oh, Jeremy Corbyn.” Now the organisers of Britain’s biggest musical gathering have switched to a different refrain: “Please, Boris Johnson.”

The Somerset home of cutting-edge music and counter-culture rebellion has joined a long list of outdoor and indoor events that hope to resume activities next year but fear ruinous losses if they have to be cancelled because of Covid-19.

Continuing difficulties in obtaining cancellation insurance have left Glastonbury in the unaccustomed position of having to be polite to a Conservative government.

Corbyn was treated to a hero’s welcome at the festival in 2017. Then last year the grime artist Stormzy led the crowd in a chant of “F*** Boris”.

Emily Eavis, 41, who organises Glastonbury with her father, Michael, 85, said “it’s already getting tight” to prepare for next year’s festival, with insurers still reluctant to provide cancellation cover.

She said Glastonbury had “lost a substantial amount of money” this year. Michael warned in June, after this year’s event was cancelled, that a second cancellation next year would cause the festival to “seriously go bankrupt”.

The Eavises and other event organisers are pleading with ministers to launch an insurance scheme to fill the void left by commercial underwriters who refuse to offer contingency cover for events that might be cancelled because of the virus.

Insurers have been hit by claims for hundreds of millions of pounds since the first lockdown began shutting down public events in March, and argue that they cannot afford another hit.

Without insurance cover, event organisers warn they cannot take the risk of arranging festivities and losing millions if they are forced to cancel.

Despite the arrival of new vaccines and hopes that life may begin to return to normal in the spring, scientists warn it may be a year or more before the pandemic stops disrupting the social calendar.

“In a usual planning cycle we would already be well into organising the next festival,” Emily Eavis said.

“The best solution would be for the government to offer ... direct financial support in the event of Glastonbury, and other events, being forced to cancel once they’re well into the preparations.

“If the government can share the risk by offering direct financial support, then it gives everyone the opportunity to move forward with the planning in the hope that things will be safe to run in the summer, and in the knowledge that backing is available if we’re simply not in a position to go ahead,” she added.

Tickets for Glastonbury cost £265. Some 135,000 people paid a £50 deposit when they went on sale in October last year and tickets sold out in 34 minutes. Deposits have rolled over for next summer’s festival, although the line-up has not been announced. Emily Eavis has previously said it costs £40m to stage Glastonbury, with £2m going to charities.

Other event organisers have already put tickets on sale for next year, gambling that the issue will be resolved. “You’ve got to have balls to make something happen,” said John Giddings, promoter of the Isle of Wight festival in June.

The festival has already booked Lionel Richie, Lewis Capaldi and Duran Duran but as yet has no insurance cover.

“We would lose a fortune if it got cancelled because of the pandemic,” Giddings said. “It’s a calculated risk ... we believe we’re going to pull it off.”

Other singers already signed up for nationwide tours include Diana Ross, the girl band Little Mix and Bryan Adams.

Stormzy and Liam Gallagher have been booked to headline August festivals in Leeds and Reading.

Theatres are also worried. Sonia Friedman, the West End producer behind blockbuster shows such as The Book of Mormon and Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, said the lack of cover was the “number one reason why we won’t be able to come back”. Investors remain wary of backing productions that may be axed if there is a resurgence of the virus.

Sir Brendan Foster, the former Olympian and founder of the Great North Run, hopes nearly 60,000 people will take part in the half-marathon from Newcastle to South Shields in September, with 250,000 spectators on hand to prove “the country is getting back to normal”.

It would be the 40th time that Britain’s biggest mass sporting event has been staged but the race has also failed to find cancellation cover. “Thanks to the vaccine there is some hope there,” said Foster, 72. “Without insurance and without the government support, those hopes will be dashed.”

The Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport said: “We know these are challenging times for the live events sector and are working flat out to support it. We have invested £1bn so far through the culture recovery fund to protect tens of thousands of creative jobs ... with £400m more support still to come.”
 

- The Sunday Times, 13/12/20.

Not sounding good. But no surprise they won't insure it as insurance companies will go.

IOW is lucky for where it is and lower barriers there.

[Avalon_Fields]

Nasty. I imagine much depends on the real financial situation of the festival. The government has been very reluctant (or refused) to bail out those who have huge finances available even if they’re desperately struggling (Airlines like Virgin. London theatres owned by people like Andrew Lloyd Webber. Premier League clubs), so it depends on the real status of the festival finances. How much could the Eavis family stump up to make it happen? They’re presumably worth many millions (on paper not necessarily cash). If they’ve got a legitimate case they’ll most likely get support. 

[Lycra]

3 hours ago, kalifire said:

Glastonbury makes rescue plea to Boris Johnson

The rock festival is leading calls for government help as insurers refuse to cover live events next summer.

The festival crowds at Glastonbury used to chant: “Oh, Jeremy Corbyn.” Now the organisers of Britain’s biggest musical gathering have switched to a different refrain: “Please, Boris Johnson.”

The Somerset home of cutting-edge music and counter-culture rebellion has joined a long list of outdoor and indoor events that hope to resume activities next year but fear ruinous losses if they have to be cancelled because of Covid-19.

Continuing difficulties in obtaining cancellation insurance have left Glastonbury in the unaccustomed position of having to be polite to a Conservative government.

Corbyn was treated to a hero’s welcome at the festival in 2017. Then last year the grime artist Stormzy led the crowd in a chant of “F*** Boris”.

Emily Eavis, 41, who organises Glastonbury with her father, Michael, 85, said “it’s already getting tight” to prepare for next year’s festival, with insurers still reluctant to provide cancellation cover.

She said Glastonbury had “lost a substantial amount of money” this year. Michael warned in June, after this year’s event was cancelled, that a second cancellation next year would cause the festival to “seriously go bankrupt”.

The Eavises and other event organisers are pleading with ministers to launch an insurance scheme to fill the void left by commercial underwriters who refuse to offer contingency cover for events that might be cancelled because of the virus.

Insurers have been hit by claims for hundreds of millions of pounds since the first lockdown began shutting down public events in March, and argue that they cannot afford another hit.

Without insurance cover, event organisers warn they cannot take the risk of arranging festivities and losing millions if they are forced to cancel.

Despite the arrival of new vaccines and hopes that life may begin to return to normal in the spring, scientists warn it may be a year or more before the pandemic stops disrupting the social calendar.

“In a usual planning cycle we would already be well into organising the next festival,” Emily Eavis said.

“The best solution would be for the government to offer ... direct financial support in the event of Glastonbury, and other events, being forced to cancel once they’re well into the preparations.

“If the government can share the risk by offering direct financial support, then it gives everyone the opportunity to move forward with the planning in the hope that things will be safe to run in the summer, and in the knowledge that backing is available if we’re simply not in a position to go ahead,” she added.

Tickets for Glastonbury cost £265. Some 135,000 people paid a £50 deposit when they went on sale in October last year and tickets sold out in 34 minutes. Deposits have rolled over for next summer’s festival, although the line-up has not been announced. Emily Eavis has previously said it costs £40m to stage Glastonbury, with £2m going to charities.

Other event organisers have already put tickets on sale for next year, gambling that the issue will be resolved. “You’ve got to have balls to make something happen,” said John Giddings, promoter of the Isle of Wight festival in June.

The festival has already booked Lionel Richie, Lewis Capaldi and Duran Duran but as yet has no insurance cover.

“We would lose a fortune if it got cancelled because of the pandemic,” Giddings said. “It’s a calculated risk ... we believe we’re going to pull it off.”

Other singers already signed up for nationwide tours include Diana Ross, the girl band Little Mix and Bryan Adams.

Stormzy and Liam Gallagher have been booked to headline August festivals in Leeds and Reading.

Theatres are also worried. Sonia Friedman, the West End producer behind blockbuster shows such as The Book of Mormon and Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, said the lack of cover was the “number one reason why we won’t be able to come back”. Investors remain wary of backing productions that may be axed if there is a resurgence of the virus.

Sir Brendan Foster, the former Olympian and founder of the Great North Run, hopes nearly 60,000 people will take part in the half-marathon from Newcastle to South Shields in September, with 250,000 spectators on hand to prove “the country is getting back to normal”.

It would be the 40th time that Britain’s biggest mass sporting event has been staged but the race has also failed to find cancellation cover. “Thanks to the vaccine there is some hope there,” said Foster, 72. “Without insurance and without the government support, those hopes will be dashed.”

The Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport said: “We know these are challenging times for the live events sector and are working flat out to support it. We have invested £1bn so far through the culture recovery fund to protect tens of thousands of creative jobs ... with £400m more support still to come.”
 

- The Sunday Times, 13/12/20.

A pitch to government to be the insurer of last resort. Interesting one this...

Country in the grip of a pandemic and depression. No deal Brexit looming? Public finances tanking. Will Boris promise more public money (which he ain't got) to underwrite private events? Only a fool would make such an undertaking if there is a significant chance of having to pay out. An interesting watch as it should be an indicator to government thinking for the year ahead.....

Then again, Boris is in charge 🤡

 

 

Edited December 13, 2020 by Lycra

[morph100]

Doubt torys will cover insurance for something that generates such anti Tory thinking and promotion in the press. 😞

we need a consortium of festival friends to help out, I’ll call Coldplay, fatboy, Keith Allen, chem brothers and the wombles they should be able to cover it.

[eFestivals]

No one is going to insure such a big risk for the sort of fee festivals could afford, and the govt is not going to insure companies against the actions of govt.

Only thing that'll give festivals that need to operate at near-normal the confidence to go ahead will be a plan and timeline for loosening restrictions. 

That way the gamble and risk with going ahead is only with the virus, and not with the unknown of the govt rules that might be in place.

[Avalon_Fields]

We won’t know with any degree of certainty how the Covid situation over the summer will be for quite some time yet. Maybe March or April? Is that too late for the festival to gear up, booking bands etc??

[Lycra]

11 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

No one is going to insure such a big risk for the sort of fee festivals could afford, and the govt is not going to insure companies against the actions of govt.

Only thing that'll give festivals that need to operate at near-normal the confidence to go ahead will be a plan and timeline for loosening restrictions. 

That way the gamble and risk with going ahead is only with the virus, and not with the unknown of the govt rules that might be in place.

The government have already set the rules for the tightening or loosening of restrictions with the tier system and they are all based on the virus. The latter is something they can only react to and not predict with certainty.

[eFestivals]

18 minutes ago, Avalon_Fields said:

We won’t know with any degree of certainty how the Covid situation over the summer will be for quite some time yet. Maybe March or April? Is that too late for the festival to gear up, booking bands etc??

there's people who do projections.

Projections for effects on healthcare from the vaccine roll out can be done, and used to say what levels of restrictions there will be if the levels in those projections are hit.

It gives businesses something to work to, while still allowing for circumstances.

[eFestivals]

17 minutes ago, Lycra said:

The government have already set the rules for the tightening or loosening of restrictions with the tier system and they are all based on the virus. The latter is something they can only react to and not predict with certainty.

They haven't said what's below tier one, or at what point of infections/hospitalisations/deaths an area becomes something less restricted than tier one.

If they said what those were, and did some projections, we could know when its likely that festivals could operate about-normally.

I'm not expecting the govt to say "all restrictions will end on <date>" without it being linked to what's happening with the virus. 

But the govt is in a position where it could say more about how it hopes the future will be, to the benefit of an awful lot of businesses (not just festivals).

 

[Copperface]

10 hours ago, efcfanwirral said:

Is that based on the current approved vaccine, or with oxford included as well?

Both, with AZ expected to come on stream in next week or two. Their estimates are that the programme will gather momentum and really start to kick in in mid to late January but they both laughed at suggestions of completion of phase 1 by April and said late summer/early autumn would be more realistic. 

[Lycra]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

They haven't said what's below tier one, or at what point of infections/hospitalisations/deaths an area becomes something less restricted than tier one.

If they said what those were, and did some projections, we could know when its likely that festivals could operate about-normally.

I'm not expecting the govt to say "all restrictions will end on <date>" without it being linked to what's happening with the virus. 

But the govt is in a position where it could say more about how it hopes the future will be, to the benefit of an awful lot of businesses (not just festivals).

 

The problem is that no one can yet project with any reasonable degree of certainty when restrictions can be lifted. Epidemiologists currently predict tiered controls will necessary for Q1 2021 and probably beyond. The impact of Covid is not just on heathcare/NHS but is also on staff absenteeism (through sickness) in business. Dealing with the latter may require restrictions to be maintained even when the impact on hospitals lessens.