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Will the 2021 festival go ahead?


JoeyT
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Glastonbury 2021   

434 members have voted

  1. 1. Following the Oxford Vaccine news will it go ahead?

    • Yes - I 100% believe
      43
    • Yes - I think so but not close to 100%. Need to see how the roll out progresses.
      158
    • Maybe - I'm 50/50
      87
    • Unlikely - Even with the latest news I think it's unlikely to take place
      79
    • No - The vaccine news is great but I can't see 200k people being allowed at Worthy Farm in June.
      67


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2 hours ago, aj6658 said:

I work for one of the big 4 (No hate) and we had a call recently where the one of the partners said that in their modelling they expect social distancing a thing of the past in April/May.

I feel thats is very optimistic but can see a couple of months down the line it being the case. If Cheltenham festival goes ahead, Glasto has to go ahead

 

I feel more optimistic of next years event - Think a combination of mass testing and a vaccine is a real positive 

 

I

Cheltenham is mid March, if social distancing is in place I can't see it happening. It probably will depend on the effects of no real restrictions at christmas.

Also Cheltenham uses permanent infrastructure and so a decision on going ahead could probably be taken closer to the event ( late Feb possibly early March ).

Even is Cheltenham gets the go ahead it may be too late for Glastonbury.

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8 hours ago, bamber said:

It saddens me to say that I think you are wrong, There is no way that large gatherings will be allowed unless there is some way for the majority to have immunity or for mass testing to take place. Logistically that isn't going to happen in time for late June. Flu is very different. A vaccine exits and there is therefore a controllable path to normality because the infection numbers are known. A Covid 19 outbreak at he festival without a significant majority of attendees being vaccinated (or perhaps tested) would lead to, at a minimum, tens or twenties of deaths and dozens of cases of severe illness. No-one is going to sanction that.

A minimum of tens or twenties of deaths? In the last week, Luton, which probably has a similar population to Glastonbury, has had 8 deaths. And that is in winter, at or near a peak of the wave, with absolutely no vaccination. And, I'd wager that almost all of those deaths will be elderly (which is not to downplay the tragedy of them). 

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I think people underestimate how much the Government don’t want the current situation, despite what some lunatics on Facebook might say.

Its only really ever been and will ever be about NHS capacity, the current lockdown is to prevent capacity being breached and nothing more. The rhetoric completely changed in the summer when the first lock down was eased, has everyone forgotten all the naff PR of MPs being photographed coming out of Pret?

I don’t even think it really matters how successful the vaccine roll out is or isn’t, if it enables life to return to normal and the NHS can cope, then it will.

Covid probably isn’t going anywhere now and will probably kill people indefinitely, but we aren’t going to stay in this state indefinitely because of that are we? 

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton
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3 hours ago, Scotdy said:

Its going to hit ticketless regulars hard when the see a big Glastonbury party on the TV after months of lockdown 

I'm ticketless and while I know what you mean (I likely won't watch it at the time if I'm not there), I think I'll be delighted that life is back to normal enough to go ahead, to be honest. I really want to go and will try my best to get a ticket. But if I don't I'll be getting tickets for at least one or two other festivals and that will definitely take the edge off In a big way. In fact there is even a little bit of me that thinks Glastonbury, with all its crowds and size, might even feel a bit too intense after a year of basically doing nothing and seeing very few people. Maybe I'd be happier doing a couple of little ones.

I will be trying, though, and if unsuccessful will likely need to take a breather from this place again.

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11 hours ago, stuie said:

I agree with @Deaf Nobby Burton above that the govt clearly don’t want this situation to rumble on and the news this morning seems clear that it will be a real struggle to bring in new regulations once we hit Feb, let alone Easter, when the vaccine is being rolled out. 

I think in the new year we will quite quickly reach a point where public compliance and MP revolts will be too strong. All the noises from the government, who let’s remember are in charge here, suggest we’ll be at a point early next year where it’ll be clear Glastonbury can go ahead.

 

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By June, everyone over 50 or others with underlying health issues will have long been vaccinated (if they want it). I'd have thought a sizeable portion of the rest of the population will have too.

As I see it (being the expert I am in such matters :ph34r:), only 2 things can stop things being largely back to normal by the time the festival rolls around. 

1. The vaccine proves to be less effective than expected. 

2. The government fuck up the roll out.

Belieeeeeeeeeeeve!

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On 11/28/2020 at 11:10 AM, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I don’t even think it really matters how successful the vaccine roll out is or isn’t, if it enables life to return to normal and the NHS can cope, then it will.

Covid probably isn’t going anywhere now and will probably kill people indefinitely, but we aren’t going to stay in this state indefinitely because of that are we? 

I fully agree. All the government messaging has been about protecting the NHS - plenty of the actions taken may well not save lives just spread it out - so once there’s no risk of that life will be closer to normal.

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The IFR below 40 is 0.1% or lower:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207273/covid-19-deaths-infection-fatality-ratio-about/

All they need to do is be on the way to vaccinating, at most, everyone above 40/50 by March/April and there is no way they’ll be ‘protecting’ the rest of the population by continual social distancing and curtailment of normal life with a risk that low. 

I don’t mean that in a harsh way, but if you’ve not been vaccinated and are below 40/50, what you chose to do will just be at your own risk, if you want to go to Glastonbury that’s down to you. The same as it was at your own risk to go to the pub in the summer.

The vaccine won’t necessarily be a silver bullet, but it will tip the scales enough for the government to allow things to return to normal. 

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5 minutes ago, kalifire said:

As a 43 year old, I'd much prefer you generalise 30/40 year olds. Thanks in advance.

40 just provided a nice cut off based on that article where below that the IFR is 0.1%. The reason I say 40/50 is that vaccinating everyone down to 40 could be a bit of a push by then, but in reality I have no idea, it could be perfectly feasible. But the main point was that once they vaccinate down to a certain age there will be a tipping point where everything gets thrown open and you go about life at your own risk. Then people can make personal choices about what they decide to do, but the rest of the country wont be forced to go along with it.

 

FWIW I’m 39 😬

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22 minutes ago, henry bear said:

It may well be the case that to gain entry into Glastonbury (and, presumably, other gigs), you have to be able show you’ve been vaccinated or else take a test to show you haven’t got the virus. If you choose not to have the vaccination then things may be a bit tense come test-time

7D3DA2DE-22AA-493B-822B-8ACDF15D12CA.gif

Bit unfair if the younger ages haven’t been offered a vaccine by then as they’re still busy vaccinating older age groups no? I personally don’t see proving you have been vaccinated as a condition of entry currently

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7 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

Bit unfair if the younger ages haven’t been offered a vaccine by then as they’re still busy vaccinating older age groups no? I personally don’t see proving you have been vaccinated as a condition of entry currently

It would be unfortunate, but not unfair.

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16 minutes ago, kalifire said:

It would be unfortunate, but not unfair.

It wouldn’t be unfair for the younger age groups who can’t get access to a vaccine to have to forego their ticket to Glastonbury?  Is that really what you’re saying??!!
The young let’s not forget have to wait longer for their vaccine, which given existence of long covid and given that some young people do die from Covid, isn’t something to be disregarded( I think that the order of priority regarding vaccines is correct by the way). To then take Glastonbury away from them too seems really unfair to me, and I can’t understand how you don’t see that. It’s not their fault they can’t get access to a vaccine!! To be banned from an event based purely on age is discrimination given it wouldn’t be the young’s fault that they can’t get access to the vaccine.


The only way they can make it compulsory to have a vaccine for entry is if everyone in the uk has had access to the vaccine by then, if people choose not to have it then that’s their decision but there’s no way Glastonbury make being vaccinated being a condition of entry unless everyone has had an opportunity to have it. Similarly, given that a lot of people travel from abroad to Glastonbury, a lot of countries might not have large scale distribution of the vaccine in time, should they be banned from attending too? Doesn’t seem very encompassing with the Glastonbury ethos banning people from attending for something that’s not in their control.

 

Edited by tigger123
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3 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

It wouldn’t be unfair for the younger age groups who can’t get access to a vaccine to have to forego their ticket to Glastonbury?  Is that really what you’re saying??!!
The young let’s not forget have to wait longer for their vaccine, which given existence of long covid and given that some young people do die from Covid, isn’t something to be disregarded( I think that the order of priority regarding vaccines is correct by the way). To then take Glastonbury away from them too seems really unfair to me, and I can’t understand how you don’t see that. It’s not their fault they can’t get access to a vaccine!! To be banned from an event based purely on age is discrimination given it wouldn’t be the young’s fault that they can’t get access to the vaccine.
The only way they can make it compulsory to have a vaccine for entry is if everyone in the uk has had access to the vaccine by then, if people choose not to have it then that’s decision but there’s no way Glastonbury make being vaccinated being a condition of entry unless everyone has had an opportunity to have it. Similarly, given that a lot of people travel from abroad to Glastonbury, a lot of countries might not have large scale distribution of the vaccine in time, should they be banned from attending too? Doesn’t seem very encompassing with the Glastonbury ethos banning people from attending for something that’s not in their control.

 

To be fair @henry bear said they could need to be vaccinated OR take a negative test. So the suggestion wasn't they have to just give up their tickets.

Personally I don't think either will be necessary, but just pointing out that that wasn't the suggestion.

Edited by Zoo Music Girl
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1 minute ago, tigger123 said:

It wouldn’t be unfair for the younger age groups who can’t get access to a vaccine to have to forego their ticket to Glastonbury?  Is that really what you’re saying??!!
The young let’s not forget have to wait longer for their vaccine, which given existence of long covid and given that some young people do die from Covid, isn’t something to be disregarded( I think that the order of priority regarding vaccines is correct by the way). To then take Glastonbury away from them too seems really unfair to me, and I can’t understand how you don’t see that. It’s not their fault they can’t get access to a vaccine!! To be banned from an event based purely on age is discrimination given it wouldn’t be the young’s fault that they can’t get access to the vaccine.
The only way they can make it compulsory to have a vaccine for entry is if everyone in the uk has had access to the vaccine by then, if people choose not to have it then that’s decision but there’s no way Glastonbury make being vaccinated being a condition of entry unless everyone has had an opportunity to have it. Similarly, given that a lot of people travel from abroad to Glastonbury, a lot of countries might not have large scale distribution of the vaccine in time, should they be banned from attending too? Doesn’t seem very encompassing with the Glastonbury ethos banning people from attending for something that’s not in their control.

 

I think the people that haven't had the vaccine will get in with a test instead .... even those that have might need a test .... doesnt eliminate the chance of catching it because of the length of the festival ... but lowers the risk further with hopefully already low summer infection rates 

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1 minute ago, crazyfool1 said:

I think the people that haven't had the vaccine will get in with a test instead .... even those that have might need a test .... doesnt eliminate the chance of catching it because of the length of the festival ... but lowers the risk further with hopefully already low summer infection rates 

Agreed, I just can’t see it being if you haven’t been able to get a vaccine tough shit, especially given that the young make up a large proportion of the Glastonbury audience

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Just now, tigger123 said:

Agreed, I just can’t see it being if you haven’t been able to get a vaccine tough shit, especially given that the young make up a large proportion of the Glastonbury audience

That wasn’t the point I was making. I think to get into festivals/gigs next year we’ll need to show either a) we’ve had the jab, or b) we haven’t got the virus, by way of a test.

That said, the UK has bought more than enough vaccines for everyone. Whether or not this government can be relied on to roll it out to everyone by June is another thing though.

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Just now, henry bear said:

That wasn’t the point I was making. I think to get into festivals/gigs next year we’ll need to show either a) we’ve had the jab, or b) we haven’t got the virus, by way of a test.

That said, the UK has bought more than enough vaccines for everyone. Whether or not this government can be relied on to roll it out to everyone by June is another thing though.

Sorry for getting the wrong end of the stick and thanks for clarifying. I do agree that if you can’t get a vaccine, then a negative test being required is completely fair, I was more taking issue with the idea that it wouldn’t be unfair if you couldn’t get a vaccine and it was mandated for entry, which I think is more what kalifre was saying rather than what you were saying.

 

 

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18 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

It wouldn’t be unfair for the younger age groups who can’t get access to a vaccine to have to forego their ticket to Glastonbury?  Is that really what you’re saying??!!

Yes, because the "younger age groups" aren't any more entitled to their freedom of movement than the older age groups are entitled to their freedom to live. There is obvious overlap.

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2 minutes ago, kalifire said:

Yes, because the "younger age groups" aren't any more entitled to their freedom of movement than the older age groups are entitled to their freedom to live. There is obvious overlap.

If that's the situation then they need to call the festival off. Simple as that

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