Will the 2021 festival go ahead?

[DareToDibble]

My mum works in the NHS and they have been told very confidently that the vaccines start from week commencing 14th December. Even if that's delayed by a week or 2 we're still in December.

I think Glastonbury going ahead really depends on the success of the rollout. Will there be problems? Probably. It's just a case of how badly those problems set us back.

[kingcrawler]

I thought this was quite an interesting postponement. March is too soon but they seem to think May will be ok, which fits with the general timeline being proposed.

[bamber]

55 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

They will not require the entire population to be vaccinated for festivals to go ahead. That’s ludicrous.

If that was the case we’d go into lockdown every flu season.

It saddens me to say that I think you are wrong, There is no way that large gatherings will be allowed unless there is some way for the majority to have immunity or for mass testing to take place. Logistically that isn't going to happen in time for late June. Flu is very different. A vaccine exits and there is therefore a controllable path to normality because the infection numbers are known. A Covid 19 outbreak at he festival without a significant majority of attendees being vaccinated (or perhaps tested) would lead to, at a minimum, tens or twenties of deaths and dozens of cases of severe illness. No-one is going to sanction that.

[fraybentos1]

20 minutes ago, bamber said:

It saddens me to say that I think you are wrong, There is no way that large gatherings will be allowed unless there is some way for the majority to have immunity or for mass testing to take place. Logistically that isn't going to happen in time for late June. Flu is very different. A vaccine exits and there is therefore a controllable path to normality because the infection numbers are known. A Covid 19 outbreak at he festival without a significant majority of attendees being vaccinated (or perhaps tested) would lead to, at a minimum, tens or twenties of deaths and dozens of cases of severe illness. No-one is going to sanction that.

There aren't many over 65s that go to Glastonbury I don't think. Why on earth do you think that many people would suffer severe illness? 

Utterly perplexing that you think 60 mil people need vaccinated, that makes no sense at all.

[tigger123]

23 minutes ago, bamber said:

It saddens me to say that I think you are wrong, There is no way that large gatherings will be allowed unless there is some way for the majority to have immunity or for mass testing to take place. Logistically that isn't going to happen in time for late June. Flu is very different. A vaccine exits and there is therefore a controllable path to normality because the infection numbers are known. A Covid 19 outbreak at he festival without a significant majority of attendees being vaccinated (or perhaps tested) would lead to, at a minimum, tens or twenties of deaths and dozens of cases of severe illness. No-one is going to sanction that.

With these sort of things I think it always helps to look back the same number of months. Glastonbury is 7 months away, 7 months ago, we were a month into lockdown, still with vastly low testing numbers and little knowledge about the virus.

Today we have vaccines that have been submitted to the regulator for approval, some drugs like dexamethasone that seem to help mortality rates, mass testing capacity, plus an economy on its knees with many people tiring of restrictions, demonstrated by the government perceiving the need to relax the rules at Xmas.

in 7 months time the outlook will be very different again. I imagine the vaccine will have been rolled out to a large proportion of the population, more (and probably improved) vaccines will be coming on stream, while also bearing in mind a public who have had to put up with over a years worth of restrictions on their lives, mass unemployment and businesses on their knees.

What I’m trying to say is there just won’t be an appetite to keep us under restrictions, it is simply an unsustainable situation. Once jabs start going into peoples arms, the pressure from the public/ backbenchers to open up is going to be immense, it’s already building now. Plus we will be going into the summer months when the virus spreads less. Look at the low number of deaths across summer this year, when there was no vaccine! 
 

Things will start to look very different from Easter onwards and I’m personally quite confident that Glastonbury will go ahead

[Stokesy10]

46 minutes ago, kingcrawler said:

I thought this was quite an interesting postponement. March is too soon but they seem to think May will be ok, which fits with the general timeline being proposed.

Interesting. I have Doves tickets in London for March 😕

[parsonjack]

3 minutes ago, Stokesy10 said:

Interesting. I have Doves tickets in London for March 😕

I've got Brighton tickets for 25th March.  I'm not confident it won't be moved.

[Stokesy10]

Just now, parsonjack said:

I've got Brighton tickets for 25th March.  I'm not confident it won't be moved.

I'd love it to still be in March but can't see it happening. Hopefully they can work something out. Never seen them and they're high on my little list of acts I AM seeing before they retire/I'm jed!

[bamber]

8 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

There aren't many over 65s that go to Glastonbury I don't think. Why on earth do you think that many people would suffer severe illness? 

Utterly perplexing that you think 60 mil people need vaccinated, that makes no sense at all.

You may be surprised at the percentage of over 60s at the festival. Over 50's would make up a significant minority. Regarding head-liners, think the Stones, Neil Young, even Dave Grohl are all 50+ and more, as are many of the other stage acts. Personal favourites like Nile Rogers (68) and Roy Ayers (80) etc. are not coming realistically.

I suppose a festival with an upper age limit might be a option, but if the 60+ age group is allowed to attend, with no widespread vaccine, people will die, just like some grandparents will die as a result of Christmas this year. Some will tacitly accept all this as inevitable, I doubt that government will sanction it though.  

[Kusy]

Artists (millionnaires) will don't need to queue for vaccine  

 

Edited November 27, 2020 by Kusy

[fraybentos1]

2 minutes ago, bamber said:

You may be surprised at the percentage of over 60s at the festival. Over 50's would make up a significant minority. Regarding head-liners, think the Stones, Neil Young, even Dave Grohl are all 50+ and more, as are many of the other stage acts. Personal favourites like Nile Rogers (68) and Roy Ayers (80) etc. are not coming realistically.

I suppose a festival with an upper age limit might be a option, but if the 60+ age group is allowed to attend, with no widespread vaccine, people will die, just like some grandparents will die as a result of Christmas this year. Some will tacitly accept all this as inevitable, I doubt that government will sanction it though.  

I think it is more than reasonable that any over 60 who wants a vaccine by June to have had one. It doesn't really matter if people are still getting the virus by June it is the amount that die/ get hospitalised that matter.

[bamber]

2 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

I think it is more than reasonable that any over 60 who wants a vaccine by June to have had one. It doesn't really matter if people are still getting the virus by June it is the amount that die/ get hospitalised that matter.

I hope you are right. I'm 56 and am 100% attending (working) if the festival goes ahead whether I'm vaccinated or not (if I can get the jab in time I will) What worries me is that the Government won't allow the festival(s) to go ahead by June. That is a realistic possibility, or at least it is going to be very tight. I would have thought that Reading and Leeds, Notting Hill etc. are far more likely to happen.

[gooner1990]

5 minutes ago, bamber said:

I hope you are right. I'm 56 and am 100% attending (working) if the festival goes ahead whether I'm vaccinated or not (if I can get the jab in time I will) What worries me is that the Government won't allow the festival(s) to go ahead by June. That is a realistic possibility, or at least it is going to be very tight. I would have thought that Reading and Leeds, Notting Hill etc. are far more likely to happen.

Which brings in the next question....will Glastonbury get moved to later in the summer to ensure it goes ahead?

I know ME & EE previously said they wouldn't move it but that might be the only viable option....

[bamber]

1 minute ago, gooner1990 said:

Which brings in the next question....will Glastonbury get moved to later in the summer to ensure it goes ahead?

I know ME & EE previously said they wouldn't move it but that might be the only viable option....

I think moving it to August would be an excellent idea.

[Leyrulion]

1 hour ago, kingcrawler said:

I thought this was quite an interesting postponement. March is too soon but they seem to think May will be ok, which fits with the general timeline being proposed.

Only rescheduled to two months later though, the time to rescheduled gig is getting shorter and shorter!

[jparx]

4 minutes ago, gooner1990 said:

Which brings in the next question....will Glastonbury get moved to later in the summer to ensure it goes ahead?

I know ME & EE previously said they wouldn't move it but that might be the only viable option....

I think that has to be in play. Agree with Neil that they will try to leave the decision as late as possible, but if we reach (say) late February/early March and it's just not quite feasible to kickstart the preparations, I think moving it back to Aug/Sept has to be on the cards. 

I think it goes ahead in June, but it's clear that festivals later in the summer have much more of a chance. Looking at the rollout plan, 2 more months is massive.

Edited November 27, 2020 by jparx

[Leyrulion]

4 hours ago, eFestivals said:

I don't think that's necessarily right.

The site build for Glastonbury starts a lot earlier than for Download, so Glastonbury would be likely to take the decision to cancel earlier than Download would.

Good point. 

I guess I'm thinking it's a general indicator. When do download start building, early May? About 6 weeks after Glastonbury, I've no idea if the situation could change that much to allow one to go ahead and not the other in that time.

[SecretFish]

1 hour ago, fraybentos1 said:

There aren't many over 65s that go to Glastonbury I don't think. Why on earth do you think that many people would suffer severe illness? 

Utterly perplexing that you think 60 mil people need vaccinated, that makes no sense at all.

I there are many over 65s...many who have been going for years

[mufcok]

It's so difficult. If the Government aren't gonna provide any support for major festivals, in the event of them being forced to cancel, then they need to provide a guarantee around the vaccination roll out; who and when.

There's no reason why it can't go ahead, similarly to the social distancing shackles being lifted, providing NHS workers/elderly/people will underlying conditions have had it. I understand it will be a complicated roll out process but surely the people who need it will have been offered/had it from mid December - April?

I don't personally see how mass testing has much of an impact, so many potential problems with that. Too many to list. 

Edited November 27, 2020 by mufcok

[Jakeyboi135]

1 hour ago, bamber said:

I hope you are right. I'm 56 and am 100% attending (working) if the festival goes ahead whether I'm vaccinated or not (if I can get the jab in time I will) What worries me is that the Government won't allow the festival(s) to go ahead by June. That is a realistic possibility, or at least it is going to be very tight. I would have thought that Reading and Leeds, Notting Hill etc. are far more likely to happen.

This is the same government who have tried, and are trying again, to get people back into sporting events. Opened all the pubs and got everyone to go restaurants, as soon as possible. Add a vaccine that's been rolled out for 6/7 months, I can't see the government saying no. 

[aj6658]

I work for one of the big 4 (No hate) and we had a call recently where the one of the partners said that in their modelling they expect social distancing a thing of the past in April/May.

I feel thats is very optimistic but can see a couple of months down the line it being the case. If Cheltenham festival goes ahead, Glasto has to go ahead

 

I feel more optimistic of next years event - Think a combination of mass testing and a vaccine is a real positive 

 

I

[fred quimby]

1 hour ago, jparx said:

I think that has to be in play. Agree with Neil that they will try to leave the decision as late as possible, but if we reach (say) late February/early March and it's just not quite feasible to kickstart the preparations, I think moving it back to Aug/Sept has to be on the cards. 

I think it goes ahead in June, but it's clear that festivals later in the summer have much more of a chance. Looking at the rollout plan, 2 more months is massive.

I just can't see this.

 

Hey ticket buyers and Volunteers. You know you had that holiday booked, well you all have to now go and ask to change it to either in the school holidays or just after.

Imagine lots of people unable to change, or have also booked the other time somewhere else (maybe)

 

[jparx]

2 minutes ago, fred quimby said:

I just can't see this.

 

Hey ticket buyers and Volunteers. You know you had that holiday booked, well you all have to now go and ask to change it to either in the school holidays or just after.

Imagine lots of people unable to change, or have also booked the other time somewhere else (maybe)

 

I don't think it's a strong possibility, but equally if it's a choice between no festival at all and moving it a bit later and inconveniencing some, I can see a delay being kept on the table. They may decide the cons outweigh the pros - my point is I can see it being an option that's in play IF we reach the point where it's not too clear if June can happen or not.

[henry bear]

They’ve said it won’t be moved until later on and it won’t. All the acts that are touring in June will not be able to reschedule for a few months later just because GF decide to do this. It’s all or nothing and I’m pretty confident it’ll proceed as planned. 

[fraybentos1]

1 hour ago, SecretFish said:

I there are many over 65s...many who have been going for years

As a percent of the festival it must be fairly small, no? 

I'm not saying they don't exist or shouldn't be there of course, I was more meaning they are the group that would need vaccinated for stuff like Glasto going ahead (not every person in Britain) cause they are at way more risk than younger people.