2021 do you feel positive or negative?

[Sasperella]

41 minutes ago, xxialac said:

I'm in my 40s and most of my friends feel very comfortable - with anything outdoors in particular.

A lot of big festivals are sold out so don't need to worry about ticket sales. And the increased numbers from pent-up demand surely outweighs wary younger people.

Aye, I'm 35 and my Glastonbury crew range from 28 to 40, with the majority probably 33-38. If it's on next year, against the backdrop of a vaccine that's protecting the most vulnerbale, I can't see any of them deciding not to go....even though none of us will likely have been vaccinated by then. 

[fatyeti24]

2 hours ago, xxialac said:

Thomas Bach, the president of the International Olympic Committee (IOC), has said he is “very, very confident” that spectators will be able to attend next year’s Olympics

Decision on access for overseas sports fans will be made in the northern hemisphere’s spring, with possible options including testing before and after arriving in Japan, and limiting visitors to those from countries that have brought the outbreak under control.

"Very, very confident"

OK, putting aside his obvious and vested interest, does he mention how many spectators he's 'very, very confident' could attend?  Because some sporting events are admitting *some* spectators now, I believe. 

His opinion is akin to Michael Eavis saying next year's Glastonbury will be the best one yet.  He might well be right, but..

[xxialac]

Just now, fatyeti24 said:

OK, putting aside his obvious and vested interest, does he mention how many spectators he's 'very, very confident' could attend?  Because some sporting events are admitting *some* spectators now, I believe. 

His opinion is akin to Michael Eavis saying next year's Glastonbury will be the best one yet.  He might well be right, but..

That's a good point. He's not committing to full stadiums.

Nonetheless he could have been more guarded in his comments. 'Very, very confident' suggests their analysis is positive on it going ahead and there's literally billions at stake so the assessment would have been thorough.

[kalifire]

3 hours ago, xxialac said:

Why do you need to have vaccinated tens of millions of people before opening things up?

Because no roll out of a vaccine would be able to keep up with the infectious rate of the virus if they started having mass gatherings, be that sports events or festivals, so they'd take one step forward and two steps back.

It depends on the level of community transmission, but unfortunately the UK government have completely fucked their COVID response, and now the virus is out there and basically uncontainable. The chance has been lost to contain it at a local level, which means there's no control dynamic that would allow a safe and orderly opening up.

It'll either be lockdown of some sort (a 'COVID normal' which wouldn't include festivals or sports events) until most are vaccinated, or it'll be chaos with lots more cases and preventable deaths if they open up regardless. I doubt the festival would even want to go ahead in that environment.

[xxialac]

3 minutes ago, kalifire said:

Because no roll out of a vaccine would be able to keep up with the infectious rate of the virus if they started having mass gatherings, be that sports events or festivals, so they'd take one step forward and two steps back.

It depends on the level of community transmission, but unfortunately the UK government have completely fucked their COVID response, and now the virus is out there and basically uncontainable. The chance has been lost to contain it at a local level, which means there's no control dynamic that would allow a safe and orderly opening up.

It'll either be lockdown of some sort (a 'COVID normal' which wouldn't include festivals or sports events) until most are vaccinated, or it'll be chaos with lots more cases and preventable deaths if they open up regardless. I doubt the festival would even want to go ahead in that environment.

Yes, can't deny you do make a lot of good points...
What I'm envisaging is a combination of vaccine of vulnerable + some testing.

[squirrelarmy]

1 hour ago, xxialac said:

What I do think remains a huge risk is that the festival will struggle to get North American and Australian acts over.

Wouldn't be surprised if they pretty much all bail...

 

This is a huge factor. 
 

If the two week quarantine is still in place then many acts won’t be visiting the country. Unless they have a UK based tour it won’t be worth coming over and quarantine for two weeks just for one gig.
 

There could be different rules for European festivals, they may be able to tour a lot more if they don’t have the same level of quarantine. 
 

I expect a huge shift to more homegrown acts. 

[Homer]

1 hour ago, Waterdeep said:

@Homer soz for the negative there! I actually think by early next year there could be a handful of vaccines approved and in use, and hopefully the option for all us worriers to go to Boots and get one for 20 quid.

Ha - was just a generally silly post I put up, not aimed at anyone. X

[Homer]

1 hour ago, xxialac said:

What I do think remains a huge risk is that the festival will struggle to get North American and Australian acts over.

Wouldn't be surprised if they pretty much all bail...

 

I saw quite a funny post about New Zealand, apparently they've got the same X number of domestic bands there going around the country on a loop.

[xxialac]

5 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

This is a huge factor. 
 

If the two week quarantine is still in place then many acts won’t be visiting the country. Unless they have a UK based tour it won’t be worth coming over and quarantine for two weeks just for one gig.
 

There could be different rules for European festivals, they may be able to tour a lot more if they don’t have the same level of quarantine. 
 

I expect a huge shift to more homegrown acts. 

Given the need to plan in advance and the significant extra costs involved, I think they'll just see it as too much risk and most will pull the plug early.

[Homer]

55 minutes ago, xxialac said:

That's a good point. He's not committing to full stadiums.

Nonetheless he could have been more guarded in his comments. 'Very, very confident' suggests their analysis is positive on it going ahead and there's literally billions at stake so the assessment would have been thorough.

I somehow got a ticket to the final of Euro '2020' at Wembley in the lottery. So fully expect stadium numbers to get reduced - sod's law.

[kalifire]

50 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Yes, can't deny you do make a lot of good points...
What I'm envisaging is a combination of vaccine of vulnerable + some testing.

ME is on record musing about how testing could help safeguard the festival next year. I think it’s the asymptomatic nature of the early stages of contraction that causes the issue. Even if they insist on a quick result test pre-entry and only allow entry if that’s clear, all it would do is create potential super spreader gatherings right outside the fence.

I feel like I’m being Nal 2.0 here, and I do so want it to happen, but when you think about the logistics of a vaccine roll out along with the super early build time necessary, all within the context of just where the UK is right now... I just can’t see it. 

Edited November 16, 2020 by kalifire

[Earth_pig]

Feeling more positive the show will go on, but quite far from usual levels of excitement and rumour obsessing, hopefully will become more clear in the new year. 
the mass testing in Liverpool and virus announcement are good news. 

[Chrisp1986]

I am prob 70/30 for it happening now 

[Freddyflintstonree]

I think the tone towards getting festivals up and running for next year has been really proactive and positive from all sides. I've gone from absolutely no chance to cautiously optimistic in the space of a few weeks. 

[Ozanne]

They could distribute a new COVID-19 vaccine delivered via an audio interface as music at Glastonbury.

It is hoped that this will lead to heard immunity.

[DareToDibble]

31 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

They could distribute a new COVID-19 vaccine delivered via an audio interface as music at Glastonbury.

It is hoped that this will lead to heard immunity.

I won't downvote you for that, but I should... dear me  

As for it going ahead. Unfortunately still in the "no" camp for now but was probably about 90/10 for it not happening whereas I'm around 60/40 now. Give it a week (or some beers) and that'll swing.

[Ozanne]

13 minutes ago, DareToDibble said:

I won't downvote you for that, but I should... dear me  

As for it going ahead. Unfortunately still in the "no" camp for now but was probably about 90/10 for it not happening whereas I'm around 60/40 now. Give it a week (or some beers) and that'll swing.

Sorry! Couldn’t resist 😂

[deepkittycaz]

On 11/15/2020 at 11:57 AM, sime said:

I'm a 'possibly'. I can't see it happening next year but I would be very happy if things become safe enough with enough of a vaccine rollout, to be proven wrong.

Same here.

[rivalschools.price]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

They could distribute a new COVID-19 vaccine delivered via an audio interface as music at Glastonbury.

It is hoped that this will lead to heard immunity.

And there it is ladies and gentlemen, the worst joke ever told. We can close the internet now☺️.

[MrZigster]

On 11/15/2020 at 1:23 PM, henry bear said:

Unfortunately it's not as straightforward as vaccinating all the vulnerable first. The Pfizer vaccine uses the live virus, and these aren't suitable for those with weakened immune systems (i.e. some of the most vulnerable, and a lot of them). These people will need a vaccine based on the dead virus, and the UK has bought 60m doses of the Valneva vaccine for these. Trouble is, testing hasn't started yet, and it's not expected to be rolled out until the second half of 2021. So, we all have to play our part until then. Even if the likes of you or I have been vaccinated, and/or don't hold too much fear of contracting the virus, we can still carry it and infect others, so there will have to be measures of some kind in place until everyone is safe.

 

As I have a bit of a weakened immune system (previous heart attack and (years later) a mild stroke), this doesn't leave me feeling very positive, personally. Think I may be prepared to risk the Pfizer one if it means I get to go to Glasto.

60m doses of one and another few million of the other(s). I know it requires two jabs but last time I checked the UK population was under 70m. Lots to spare then?

[Matt42]

7 hours ago, kalifire said:

ME is on record musing about how testing could help safeguard the festival next year. I think it’s the asymptomatic nature of the early stages of contraction that causes the issue. Even if they insist on a quick result test pre-entry and only allow entry if that’s clear, all it would do is create potential super spreader gatherings right outside the fence.

I feel like I’m being Nal 2.0 here, and I do so want it to happen, but when you think about the logistics of a vaccine roll out along with the super early build time necessary, all within the context of just where the UK is right now... I just can’t see it. 

Looks like we got 45 million doses (of the two vaccines ready) already  Another one coming soon.

They can’t say they don’t have the stock!

[squirrelarmy]

3 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Looks like we got 45 million doses (of the two vaccines ready) already  Another one coming soon.

They can’t say they don’t have the stock!

Next scandal will probably be in the inequalities when it comes to regional distribution. 

[John the Moth]

On 11/16/2020 at 11:36 PM, Homer said:

I saw quite a funny post about New Zealand, apparently they've got the same X number of domestic bands there going around the country on a loop.

I can confirm this is true prima facie, although we do have Crowded House back for a limited tour in March.

[Gilgamesh69]

Dreamt I was on a coach to Glasto. It was a really sunny day, and I could see the ribbon tower on the horizon. It felt really nice 🥰😢

[Homer]

1 hour ago, John the Moth said:

I can confirm this is true prima facie, although we do have Crowded House back for a limited tour in March.

Surely it's time for the Conchords to save the day?! I may have this wrong but thought they hadn't gigged in NZ for a while.