U.S. Presidential Election

[Matt42]

Was thinking about this overnight. Here’s what I imagine will happen in 2024 if Trump sets up his own patriot party and one of his offspring runs. I don’t think he will run, but he will probably think Don jr can be a viable candidate.

Democrats win (obv)

- Republicans lose a bit of their lead in Texas and Florida but it’s not enough to lose them the state (will be close though).

- It is enough to win back NC and Ohio.

- Dems due to this keep the states Georgia, Arizona, MN and MI - but it’s a narrow victory in WI.

I highly doubt the patriot party would win a state but who the fuck knows.

The one I’m willing to budge on a bit is Florida - but only because the right wing vote is split so the democrats come closer to a majority. However I’m going to be pessimistic on this one because the state as a whole seems to be trending more to the right as time goes on. Anecdotal but it seems to be a retirement haven now for Right leaning Americans sick of left leaning states.

I’ve also tried my best to temper expectations. The real result could be even better for the dems if they pull off COVID recovery and do well in the Republican states they’ve won. Also if Texas goes continue to trend to the blue then this whole thing could be flipped entirely. But I’m not sold on Texas going blue... yet.

@Ozanne take it away!

[John the Moth]

17 minutes ago, Big durbs said:

Mrs Binfire 

[Ozanne]

1 hour ago, Matt42 said:

Was thinking about this overnight. Here’s what I imagine will happen in 2024 if Trump sets up his own patriot party and one of his offspring runs. I don’t think he will run, but he will probably think Don jr can be a viable candidate.

Democrats win (obv)

- Republicans lose a bit of their lead in Texas and Florida but it’s not enough to lose them the state (will be close though).

- It is enough to win back NC and Ohio.

- Dems due to this keep the states Georgia, Arizona, MN and MI - but it’s a narrow victory in WI.

I highly doubt the patriot party would win a state but who the fuck knows.

The one I’m willing to budge on a bit is Florida - but only because the right wing vote is split so the democrats come closer to a majority. However I’m going to be pessimistic on this one because the state as a whole seems to be trending more to the right as time goes on. Anecdotal but it seems to be a retirement haven now for Right leaning Americans sick of left leaning states.

I’ve also tried my best to temper expectations. The real result could be even better for the dems if they pull off COVID recovery and do well in the Republican states they’ve won. Also if Texas goes continue to trend to the blue then this whole thing could be flipped entirely. But I’m not sold on Texas going blue... yet.

@Ozanne take it away!

Haha thanks for the thought!

I’m gonna be honest I don’t know a huge amount yet to say much about 2024 but what you are suggesting sounds reasonable. I’m fairly sure if Trump sets up his own party then it opens the door for the Dems. 

[Zoo Music Girl]

28 minutes ago, John the Moth said:

Mrs Binfire 

That deserves an upvote.

[Matt42]

7 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Haha thanks for the thought!

I’m gonna be honest I don’t know a huge amount yet to say much about 2024 but what you are suggesting sounds reasonable. I’m fairly sure if Trump sets up his own party then it opens the door for the Dems. 

Either way it’s bad news for the republicans. If he does they may lose some key states which they’ve held on a knife edge. If he doesn’t then they will have to encourage Trump Republican voters to show out for them when they (at the moment) don’t believe in democracy.

[Jakeyboi135]

I don't think he'll set up another party. As crazy as he can be, he's not stupid enough to think he can win. He's managed to convince plenty of people he won the election, he'll spend his day's repeating the lie. Fully prepared for this comment to bite me in the harris

[FloorFiller]

16 minutes ago, Jakeyboi135 said:

I don't think he'll set up another party. As crazy as he can be, he's not stupid enough to think he can win. He's managed to convince plenty of people he won the election, he'll spend his day's repeating the lie. Fully prepared for this comment to bite me in the harris

It could go either way really:

1. He disappears (mostly) from public view and politics and is too knee deep in legal shit to go through with this kind of stuff, especially if his kids are still hoping to have a future in politics.

2. His arrogant self won’t let any of the above happen and he forges away with his new party in an attempt to continue funnelling money from his base and remain in the spotlight. 

Any normal person would do the first, especially as he didn’t even really want to be President in the first place, but the guy is a fucking idiot and the grift is all he’s got so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him attempt it. 

[dentalplan]

2 hours ago, Matt42 said:

Here’s what I imagine will happen in 2024 if Trump sets up his own patriot party and one of his offspring runs. I don’t think he will run, but he will probably think Don jr can be a viable candidate.

I think Ivanka will have a presidential run in 2024 of some form. He’s always had her front and centre - I believe Ivanka 2024 would have been the plan if he won too.

Whether it’s for a splinter party or just for Republicans I’m not sure but I’d be willing to bet she is the candidate out of the kids.

[stuartbert two hats]

2 hours ago, Big durbs said:

There's no way she runs a tight ship.

[incident]

53 minutes ago, Jakeyboi135 said:

I don't think he'll set up another party. As crazy as he can be, he's not stupid enough to think he can win. He's managed to convince plenty of people he won the election, he'll spend his day's repeating the lie. Fully prepared for this comment to bite me in the harris

It doesn't have to be about winning.

There's a school of thought (one I agree with) that he never thought he could / would win in 2016 but just wanted to take the ride as he thought a presidential bid by itself would generate income and status.

If he can get to deliver speeches to adoring crowds, solicit huge amounts of money from them, and leverage it into contracts for his companies - then it's likely he'd see that as a huge success even if nobody ever got elected on that ticket.

[FloorFiller]

26 minutes ago, dentalplan said:

I think Ivanka will have a presidential run in 2024 of some form. He’s always had her front and centre - I believe Ivanka 2024 would have been the plan if he won too.

Whether it’s for a splinter party or just for Republicans I’m not sure but I’d be willing to bet she is the candidate out of the kids.

Although Ivanka vs. Kamala would be quite the showdown, the Republicans must know that having a Trump run for them would basically just be handing the Presidency to the Dems at this point. I’m not sure if there’s anything they can do to block Ivanka running, but I’m sure they’d do everything they can to stop it from happening.

[Matt42]

Just now, FloorFiller said:

Although Ivanka vs. Kamala would be quite the showdown, the Republicans must know that having a Trump run for them would basically just be handing the Presidency to the Dems at this point. I’m not sure if there’s anything they can do to block Ivanka running, but I’m sure they’d do everything they can to stop it from happening.

Yeah I think Kamala v Ivanka would be a tricky one. It would be a close fight imo if Ivanka ended up winning GOP rep.

[FloorFiller]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

Yeah I think Kamala v Ivanka would be a tricky one. It would be a close fight imo if Ivanka ended up winning GOP rep.

Ehh I dunno. The racists would sure come out in force, but I can’t imagine any of Bidens 80,000,000 voters  switching their vote to another Trump. It’d essentially be an exact repeat of Biden’s win imo. Obviously it would be somewhat dependant on how Biden/Harris goes in the next four years, but a Trump name is an instant nope from a lot of people for decades to come.

[Matt42]

5 minutes ago, FloorFiller said:

Ehh I dunno. The racists would sure come out in force, but I can’t imagine any of Bidens 80,000,000 voters  switching their vote to another Trump. It’d essentially be an exact repeat of Biden’s win imo. Obviously it would be somewhat dependant on how Biden/Harris goes in the next four years, but a Trump name is an instant nope from a lot of people for decades to come.

I think Ivanka would appeal to the Rustbelt more than Kamala. That’s just my take. Biden won Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan by slim margins. Trump won big in 2016. Whilst it does lean in the democrats favour I think it would be a tough fight. Kamala would deffo win the popular vote, I just think she may lose a few battleground states.

I did a mock-up of how I think Kamala v Ivanka would go though and it came with Kamala winning so... maybe it doesn’t matter.

[Matt42]

Sorry for some reason I’ve been reading up on this a lot and it’s got my brain cogs turning.

I think dems stand a good chance of keeping Georgia, as Georgia is at the front of many of their green infrastructure plans. Citizens of Georgia are about to get some good love and care in the next few years. Lots of jobs and opportunities.

Also - they nearly won NC so they will be focusing their attention there.

[dentalplan]

38 minutes ago, FloorFiller said:

Although Ivanka vs. Kamala would be quite the showdown, the Republicans must know that having a Trump run for them would basically just be handing the Presidency to the Dems at this point. I’m not sure if there’s anything they can do to block Ivanka running, but I’m sure they’d do everything they can to stop it from happening.

I mean yeah I’m not saying she’ll make it onto the ticket but I think she’ll run and be a realistic candidate for the nomination.

If the candidate gets the required support, there’s not much the Republicans can do about who runs, or else we wouldn’t be talking about this right now. Obviously if she was to go to prison then it’s a different thing but I’m expecting that she doesn’t.

[Matt42]

23 minutes ago, dentalplan said:

I mean yeah I’m not saying she’ll make it onto the ticket but I think she’ll run and be a realistic candidate for the nomination.

If the candidate gets the required support, there’s not much the Republicans can do about who runs, or else we wouldn’t be talking about this right now. Obviously if she was to go to prison then it’s a different thing but I’m expecting that she doesn’t.

Yeah that’s a good point. If she puts herself forward and wins the vote to run the party then... well she runs the party... not much the GOP can do about it. Just got to wait and see.

I do think that any Republican candidate which sticks their head up and outright challenges the trump brand will have a tough fight. The Trump name is in the dirt right now but they are still a formidable force within the party.

I hope the MAGA lot band together and get her running the party just to lose the election again. Watching Trump lose a few times wasn’t enough. 

[FloorFiller]

3 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Yeah that’s a good point. If she puts herself forward and wins the vote to run the party then... well she runs the party... not much the GOP can do about it. Just got to wait and see.

I do think that any Republican candidate which sticks their head up and outright challenges the trump brand will have a tough fight. The Trump name is in the dirt right now but they are still a formidable force within the party.

I hope the MAGA lot band together and get her running the party just to lose the election again. Watching Trump lose a few times wasn’t enough. 

Gonna be quite funny when the 2024 primaries come around and all the people who were fondling Trumps testicles for the last four years are back on the offensive of him/whoever in his family ends up running and having to constantly explain away their previous admiration. 

[Matt42]

1 hour ago, FloorFiller said:

Gonna be quite funny when the 2024 primaries come around and all the people who were fondling Trumps testicles for the last four years are back on the offensive of him/whoever in his family ends up running and having to constantly explain away their previous admiration. 

It’s going to be a mess, but I’m not ruling out the GOP making some sort of recovery. I thought after Hilary the dems were going to need a miracle to win again using their usual tactics. 
 

I think they will recover by finding a way to keep Trump’s lot and to not scare off the moderates who may be a bit afraid of voting for more Trump. Another factor will be whether the democrats pull off their big plans.

At the moment I can see the same issues happening really, whether the next democrat candidate resonates with the battleground states. 

Whether we like it or not there are things the GOP have which means they will still pose a strong threat to the dems. The key states they need to win Florida / Ohio are leaning more to the right each election and probably won’t be battleground states anymore. Also, the republicans do have a strong following in the rustbelt. Biden was a pretty good candidate for the rustbelt, but they wouldn’t be as fond of Kamala, AOC, or anyone more progressive.

Dems are in a good position now but it’s still a fight.

[shoptildrop]

Can someone make me one of these??? Pleeeasssse 🙂 

[Ozanne]

 

 

[shoptildrop]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

 

 

Brilliant!

[Ozanne]

3 minutes ago, shoptildrop said:

Brilliant!

He's the best.

[Suprefan]

4 hours ago, Jakeyboi135 said:

I don't think he'll set up another party. As crazy as he can be, he's not stupid enough to think he can win. He's managed to convince plenty of people he won the election, he'll spend his day's repeating the lie. Fully prepared for this comment to bite me in the harris

Needs the money. Fundraising new merchandise and cutting budget corners to keep as much of it as possible during a campaign is all thats motivating. His finances arent in as good of shape as you think. All that golf didnt cost a thing, it cost US. I cannot wait to see if Joe ever gets out onto the golf course and he gets skewered for it. If it ends up that he played a handful of times over these 4 years he will be painted at the  president who wasted our money while the last guy wouldve played every day if he was able to.

 

And still not going to get the message out with a locked twitter account anyway. He needs the ad engagement dollars that come with it.  Its a big reason there were never press conferences in the white house the last couple weeks even though that was still a way to get a message out. You cannot directly send a link out to people to buy a new t shirt while youre in the press room on tv. And all the tv networks know to just cut off when it gets off the rails. A small percentage of households have OAN and Newsmax which cater more to the base than Fox does at the moment so you lose a lot. And then later on you just hear random clips and nothing else.

Like this should make a conviction easier. Thats all Mitch and co are thinking about anyway. 

 

[eFestivals]

4 hours ago, Jakeyboi135 said:

I don't think he'll set up another party. As crazy as he can be, he's not stupid enough to think he can win. He's managed to convince plenty of people he won the election, he'll spend his day's repeating the lie. Fully prepared for this comment to bite me in the harris

I don't think he's stupid enough to think he can win.

I do think he thinks his supporters are stupid enough to send him free money.