Glasto 21 DEFFO ON says lawyer

[jparx]

40 minutes ago, henry bear said:

I see no reason to decide sooner than March. I know we're all back into some variation of lockdown, and it's hard to see anything getting back to normal, but that's 5 months away and by then the situation will hopefully look somewhat more positive. I'm genuinely more optimistic that it'll go ahead than I have been for months. 

Yeah I agree. With rumblings of a vaccine on the way, possibly even in a month or two, I’m sure they are feeling optimistic as well and will take as much time as they can to make the decision. 

Maybe I’m missing something, but after the lawyer story broke everyone seemed fairly positive. That was only 6 days ago and we all knew a lockdown of some sort was coming. I don’t see any reason to be more pessimistic now...?

[tigger123]

2 hours ago, Lycra said:

Most oldies are doing very well in avoiding infection by being sensible. Hospital bed demand seeing upsurge driven in younger population. 

What are you defining 'younger population' as? The 15-44 age group from the chart Whitty presented on Saturday hasn't increased at all really since July. I wouldn't really call that an upsurge:

[Lycra]

35 minutes ago, henry bear said:

I see no reason to decide sooner than March. I know we're all back into some variation of lockdown, and it's hard to see anything getting back to normal, but that's 5 months away and by then the situation will hopefully look somewhat more positive. I'm genuinely more optimistic that it'll go ahead than I have been for months. 

Wish I could share your optimism but the noises coming out of government will be a major influence and I don't see these as positive. Festivals need certainty. Going forward without it puts the very life of a festival in financial jeopardy. 

[Lycra]

1 hour ago, tigger123 said:

What are you defining 'younger population' as? The 15-44 age group from the chart Whitty presented on Saturday hasn't increased at all really since July. I wouldn't really call that an upsurge:

Beware of graphs without y-axis title. NHS winter bed plans always expect high occupancy from older patients, particularly on respiratory units this is being supplemented by younger groups presenting. Prof Calum Sample stated in the NW  that covid admissions are being  driven by the 20-40 female age bracket and experience here finds similar, though not so strongly female and with a wider age range.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30461-6/fulltext

 

Edited November 2, 2020 by Lycra

[henry bear]

41 minutes ago, Lycra said:

Wish I could share your optimism but the noises coming out of government will be a major influence and I don't see these as positive. Festivals need certainty. Going forward without it puts the very life of a festival in financial jeopardy. 

The government needs lockdown to work, and they are presenting a bleak picture at the moment so that people realise the severity of the situation. Come March, hopefully the vaccine will have been rolled out for a few months, the R rate will be dropping, more testing will be available and they'll have a better idea of how the festival can proceed. 

[tigger123]

20 minutes ago, Lycra said:

Beware of graphs without y-axis title. NHS winter bed plans always expect high occupancy from older patients, particularly on respiratory units this is being supplemented by younger groups presenting. Prof Ian Sample stated in the NW  that covid admissions are being  driven by the 20-40 female age bracket and experience here finds similar, though not so strongly female and with a wider age range.

The y axis is 'Admission rate per 100,000', sorry I cut it off by accident.

Was it not that covid cases rather than admissions are being driven by females aged 20-40? Regardless of what he said, the data presented by the government's chief medical officer (which surely should be the data we go by, as it is this data that is leading the government's decisions, including to lockdown), says that an upsurge amongst the young is not happening. 

[Lycra]

7 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

The y axis is 'Admission rate per 100,000', sorry I cut it off by accident.

Was it not that covid cases rather than admissions are being driven by females aged 20-40? Regardless of what he said, the data presented by the government's chief medical officer (which surely should be the data we go by, as it is this data that is leading the government's decisions, including to lockdown), says that an upsurge amongst the young is not happening. 

Admission rate per 100,000. We need be careful because the populations of 65-84 and 85+ are much lower than those below 65. For example 100 admissions per 100,000 65-84yo in a population of 6million = 6000 admissions whereas 20 admissions per 100,000 18-64yo in a population of 45,000 million = 9000 admissions.

Cumulative data published since onset on the pandemic shows there have been ca 60,000 admissions 65-84 and 28,000 of those 85+. Admissions 18-64 are ca 47,000. [Total is lower than the recorded 143k covid admissions as the age of some patients has not been documented]

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England

[Lycra]

1 hour ago, henry bear said:

The government needs lockdown to work, and they are presenting a bleak picture at the moment so that people realise the severity of the situation. Come March, hopefully the vaccine will have been rolled out for a few months, the R rate will be dropping, more testing will be available and they'll have a better idea of how the festival can proceed. 

The worry for me is that government are saying "these are the rules" and it's up to festival organisers as to whether they can make a festival work within those rules. It didn't work this summer when gigs were held to a crowd of 100s rather than 1000s.

[Chrisp1986]

Have to submit my annual leave for work now and need to book up to June 2022. Do I book Glasto 2022.......(probably won't be going if we go to 2021)

[henry bear]

47 minutes ago, Chrisp1986 said:

Have to submit my annual leave for work now and need to book up to June 2022. Do I book Glasto 2022.......(probably won't be going if we go to 2021)

Yes! Imagine if you don't book the leave and the tickets rollover another year...

 

[priest17]

4 hours ago, tigger123 said:

What are you defining 'younger population' as? The 15-44 age group from the chart Whitty presented on Saturday hasn't increased at all really since July. I wouldn't really call that an upsurge:

The older I get the more I realise that the 15-44 age group is indeed the young population.

[Jack.194]

5 hours ago, henry bear said:

but that's 5 months away and by then the situation will hopefully look somewhat more positive

I feel the most positive I have in months about the festival going ahead, just wary of the fact that this ^ has been my attitude (and I’m assuming many others’) for almost a year now.

[Leyrulion]

3 hours ago, Chrisp1986 said:

Have to submit my annual leave for work now and need to book up to June 2022. Do I book Glasto 2022.......(probably won't be going if we go to 2021)

Absolutely. If it doesn't work out book a weekend away somewhere nice.

[eFestivals]

14 hours ago, henry bear said:

I see no reason to decide sooner than March. 

nor do I, but then again I don't know how they schedule what needs to be done.

I presume they've picked January for updates for very good reasons.

[zahidf]

Be interested in how the mass testing in Liverpool goes. If it works, the rapid 1 hour tests would be rolled out elsewhere.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

Be interested in how the mass testing in Liverpool goes. If it works, the rapid 1 hour tests would be rolled out elsewhere.

it's only as good as the tests, and so the result Liverpool will get is a tautology.  

[Lycra]

25 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

nor do I, but then again I don't know how they schedule what needs to be done.

I presume they've picked January for updates for very good reasons.

When GF2020 was called off in March covid was just emerging in the UK and they had little choice but to cancel. Now it's been around a lot longer we could envisage GFL will know sooner if the festival is possible next year. Is it a coincidence the full deposit refund date was pushed back until the end of January 🤔

[duke88]

11 hours ago, Chrisp1986 said:

Have to submit my annual leave for work now and need to book up to June 2022. Do I book Glasto 2022.......(probably won't be going if we go to 2021)

You have to book holiday 20 months in advance?!

[Padgey]

18 hours ago, henry bear said:

I see no reason to decide sooner than March. I know we're all back into some variation of lockdown, and it's hard to see anything getting back to normal, but that's 5 months away and by then the situation will hopefully look somewhat more positive. I'm genuinely more optimistic that it'll go ahead than I have been for months. 

I thought that back at the end of March this year, how wrong I was!

[mufcok]

I can't imagine mass testing solving anything, personally. Let's say they have testing on entry where you get results incredibly quick. There's so many problems with that. If 1 person out of a group of 4/6 who've travelled tests positive, that's the rest knackered. What happens if they aren't together in the queue and other members of that group just walk in? What happens if the person who's tested positive has no transport? Not to mention the problems it's gonna cause with security. Imagine getting turned away at the gate with a ticket because a test says your positive for Covid-19, despite having no symptoms?

Unless the elderly/health workers/people with pre-existing health conditions can be vaccinated, I don't see another way around it unfortunately 

[rivalschools.price]

14 hours ago, priest17 said:

The older I get the more I realise that the 15-44 age group is indeed the young population.

My problem is that I consider myself to be part of the young population even though I’m 51.

I was most insulted when a doctor on the news described the older generation as the over-50s, haha.

[Chrisp1986]

4 hours ago, duke88 said:

You have to book holiday 20 months in advance?!

Mmhmmmm, pharmacist.

[Chrisp1986]

So now we have a vaccine......

[Billy Corgan's Ego]

For the first time since March, I think this is happening!!! 

[mufcok]

Dunno if it's because Trump has been sent packing but I'm feeling very optimistic now with this vaccine news, a bit too optimistic to be honest. Close to putting a set on