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Do you think Glastonbury 2021 will go ahead? 2.0


Do you think Glastonbury 2021 will go ahead? 2.0  

351 members have voted

  1. 1. Do you think Glastonbury 2021 will go ahead? 2.0

    • Yes, and it will be business as usual.
      5
    • Yes, with some minor requirements (hygiene warnings, extra hand gel).
      51
    • Yes, with some moderate/major requirements (face masks, distancing, temperature checks, testing).
      47
    • No, Coronavirus will still be too prevalent and mass gatherings will still be banned.
      121
    • No, Coronavirus will still be too much of a risk and the organisers will choose not to go ahead.
      81
    • No, for another reason.
      7
    • I can't even guess.
      39


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1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

VE Day, BLM, beaches, illegal raves, protests, etc, etc.

After all of these there were people pointing the finger saying they were spreading the virus. It didn't happen in any detectable way.

The most significant word here is detectable. Virus transmission probably did occur but it was not detected and rates were mitigated by other measures such as social distancing taking place elsewhere.  Also I would suggest only the latter 2 could be classified as true crowded events as social distancing was operating on 'VE, BLM  & beaches. If social distancing is still a requirement for GF then fans would be spread the length of Glastonbury valley.

A distinction must also be drawn between authorised events and unauthorised events. The powers that be have overall authority over official licensed events in setting the rules. This was shown recently by the publication of the industry covid compliance guidance document. 

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Michael's always optimistic, I'm half surprised he didn't say G2020 was the best one yet...

Well said. Totally agree, if we don’t have hope and optimism then we have nothing. At the moment I’m in a hotel room looking out the window, it’s very misty so the Tor is obscured, but I know it’s the

Glastonbury will be going ahead as normal. It won’t work if there’s any restrictions.    What may happen is that they treat the festival as a holiday destination and you’ll be advised to isolat

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3 minutes ago, Lycra said:

The most significant word here is detectable. Virus transmission probably did occur but it was not detected

I don't disagree.

But it does show that providing the levels of infection are already low in society, crowded outdoor activities are a very low risk.

If the important people are weighing things up properly, this should carry some weight.

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7 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I don't disagree.

But it does show that providing the levels of infection are already low in society, crowded outdoor activities are a very low risk.

If the important people are weighing things up properly, this should carry some weight.

It's a difficult balance. Government are attempting to inject optimism that things will get better as it lifts morale and may help with acceptance of current rules. But in doing so they can create a false expectation. Most experts agree winning the covid war is going to be a protacted business and there is as yet no predictable end for the need social distance. 

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But social distancing isn't going to be forever, and as soon as govt have reached the end of their vaccine rollout it'll be at an end.

Which means that realistically, outdoor distancing doesn't need to wait that long. It could be abandoned before the vaccine rollout has finished.

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55 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

But social distancing isn't going to be forever, and as soon as govt have reached the end of their vaccine rollout it'll be at an end.

Which means that realistically, outdoor distancing doesn't need to wait that long. It could be abandoned before the vaccine rollout has finished.

True but experts are forecasting that social distancing will still be needed next summer even if vaccination begins 1st Jan. Fear is the vaccine roll out and loosening of distancing may not come soon enough to save early season festivals. Organisers need surety for events planning. It's difficult for them to proceed on beliefs when they need to spend infrastructure money.

In essence there is probably a 13 week window beginning 1st Jan for vaccination measures to be implimented  and shown to have a substantial effect on the course of the epidemic.

Edited by Lycra
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I've not got a ticket as things stand, but I sincerely hope it goes ahead. Especially when it was hinted that 2 cancellations on the trot could mean curtains. 

If rates do go sky high in January time following Christmas though, June will suddenly start to seem very close 😬

 

 

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4 hours ago, eFestivals said:

but it's also good news towards the possibility of festivals next summer, if anyone important is paying proper attention.

There were a lot of outdoor crowding events that happened before August, yet there was no noticeable increase in infections.

I'm always open to optimism...I just wonder that if "legacy ruining" could be a factor in GFL thoughts. They'd hate to be labelled the pariah if an outbreak occurred...

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12 minutes ago, Superscally said:

I'm always open to optimism...I just wonder that if "legacy ruining" could be a factor in GFL thoughts. They'd hate to be labelled the pariah if an outbreak occurred...

Someone is going to have to be first though?

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2 hours ago, Superscally said:

I'm always open to optimism...I just wonder that if "legacy ruining" could be a factor in GFL thoughts. They'd hate to be labelled the pariah if an outbreak occurred...

Could also be viewed as a big boost for the events industry as a whole though if Glastonbury can go ahead, it will give confidence to smaller events that it’s going to be ok!

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1 hour ago, tigger123 said:

Could also be viewed as a big boost for the events industry as a whole though if Glastonbury can go ahead, it will give confidence to smaller events that it’s going to be ok!

Indeed it would but it goes against the grain of recent government thinking which was to open up smaller events as a test for larger events.

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I’m currently 65/35 against it happening, but we have to remember how the human mind works.

Were incapable of imagining how we’ll feel in the future, if we do the weekly shop hungry we’ll buy food based on how we feel at the time, not what we’ll actually want to eat on the following Wednesday. Cases are rising and we’re heading into a bleak winter with things unlikely to get better for about 6 months, so that will naturally affect our thinking about the likelihood of it going ahead.
 

The summer was fine, we had a number of mass outdoor events that created no issue, what is happening now was predicted as the weather changes and it’s exactly what happens with flu every year when the seasons change, but our human brains can only think of what’s happening now as we enter winter. 

The reality is we simply don’t know where we’ll be in six months time, that’s a long time for the virus to still be circulating, so in the absence of a full lockdown, we don’t know how many people will have antibodies by March/April next year and we don’t know how the virus will continue to spread once a certain amount of people have them. There could conceivably be a point short of 50/60% where the virus struggles to spread and we may hit that after this next wave.

Of course there is the issue of how long immunity lasts, but to me that’s largely irrelevant. Putting a a vaccine to one side for a moment, having already had Covid is very likely to provide some sort of benefit second time around as far as how serious it is. And if it doesn’t, then ultimately we’re not going to persist with social distancing indefinitely, as there would be absolutely no point, we’d be trying to prevent the unpreventable at the expense of trashing our economy and our lives as we know them.

When it comes to a vaccine we really have to take everything with a pinch of salt, other than the realities of how long it would actually take to roll out. The default position from anyone involved with a vaccine, the government included, will always be the most pessimistic negative one.

Yes Glastonbury needs to plan and build, but anyone linked to Glastonbury apart from the absolute mega artists NEED it to happen. It could easily get to March/April with things still up in the air and the will for it to go ahead from all involved will still be there. We might lose some big acts but who gives a shit about that.
 

The short version of what I’ve rambled on about is that although things seem bleak now, we literally have no clue until next spring.

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton
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29 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I’m currently 65/35 against it happening, but we have to remember how the human mind works.

Were incapable of imagining how we’ll feel in the future, if we do the weekly shop hungry we’ll buy food based on how we feel at the time, not what we’ll actually want to eat on the following Wednesday. Cases are rising and we’re heading into a bleak winter with things unlikely to get better for about 6 months, so that will naturally affect our thinking about the likelihood of it going ahead.
 

The summer was fine, we had a number of mass outdoor events that created no issue, what is happening now was predicted as the weather changes and it’s exactly what happens with flu every year when the seasons change, but our human brains can only think of what’s happening now as we enter winter. 

The reality is we simply don’t know where we’ll be in six months time, that’s a long time for the virus to still be circulating, so in the absence of a full lockdown, we don’t know how many people will have antibodies by March/April next year and we don’t know how the virus will continue to spread once a certain amount of people have them. There could conceivably be a point short of 50/60% where the virus struggles to spread and we may hit that after this next wave.

Of course there is the issue of how long immunity lasts, but to me that’s largely irrelevant. Putting a a vaccine to one side for a moment, having already had Covid is very likely to provide some sort of benefit second time around as far as how serious it is. And if it doesn’t, then ultimately we’re not going to persist with social distancing indefinitely, as there would be absolutely no point, we’d be trying to prevent the unpreventable at the expense of trashing our economy and our lives as we know them.

When it comes to a vaccine we really have to take everything with a pinch of salt, other than the realities of how long it would actually take to roll out. The default position from anyone involved with a vaccine, the government included, will always be the most pessimistic negative one.

Yes Glastonbury needs to plan and build, but anyone linked to Glastonbury apart from the absolute mega artists NEED it to happen. It could easily get to March/April with things still up in the air and the will for it to go ahead from all involved will still be there. We might lose some big acts but who gives a shit about that.
 

The short version of what I’ve rambled on about is that although things seem bleak now, we literally have no clue until next spring.

It kinda goes without saying that the vast majority of people on this forum would like Glasto to go ahead, but I think that GFL are just as unsure about the likelihood of it happening as we are at the moment.

We don't know for sure when a vaccine will be rolled out, nor do we know the efficacy of that vaccine. We also don't know how the goverment will respond to this news, and the restrictions they will place on large outdoor gatherings throughout the year.

At this point in time, it really is all up in the air.

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3 minutes ago, Ragingbunion93 said:

It kinda goes without saying that the vast majority of people on this forum would like Glasto to go ahead, but I think that GFL are just as unsure about the likelihood of it happening as we are at the moment.

We don't know for sure when a vaccine will be rolled out, nor do we know the efficacy of that vaccine. We also don't know how the goverment will respond to this news, and the restrictions they will place on large outdoor gatherings throughout the year.

At this point in time, it really is all up in the air.

Completely agree, it’s up in the air for all of us including GFL until around March or April. I just wanted to also point out that our perspective on it happening or not, will also be based on the situation now, rather than the situation in March/April next year. 

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8 hours ago, Ryan1984 said:

Someone is going to have to be first though?

 

8 hours ago, Ryan1984 said:

Someone is going to have to be first though?

 

6 hours ago, tigger123 said:

Could also be viewed as a big boost for the events industry as a whole though if Glastonbury can go ahead, it will give confidence to smaller events that it’s going to be ok!

Keep the faith😂

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2 hours ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Completely agree, it’s up in the air for all of us including GFL until around March or April. I just wanted to also point out that our perspective on it happening or not, will also be based on the situation now, rather than the situation in March/April next year. 

I'm more positive today! 

The UK is doing the most testing in Europe and even France is having events with 1,000 people right now. 

If we can get back to the same number if cases as July this year then mass events are surely on.

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2 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

I'm more positive today! 

The UK is doing the most testing in Europe and even France is having events with 1,000 people right now. 

If we can get back to the same number if cases as July this year then mass events are surely on.

There is that fact that we’re doing significantly more testing now than back in March/April, so even though cases are rising, relative to March/April they may not in reality be anywhere near as high. So the situation may seem worse but may actually be better so to speak, which means it will be better again in six months time. 

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38 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

There is that fact that we’re doing significantly more testing now than back in March/April, so even though cases are rising, relative to March/April they may not in reality be anywhere near as high. So the situation may seem worse but may actually be better so to speak, which means it will be better again in six months time. 

At the peak it's commonly said we had 100k cases and were detecting about 5k

Right now estimates are between 30-40k and we're detecting about 18k. 

So we are doing better. The testing system was on its arse but does seem to be getting better (touch wood). Capacity is over 450k and they're processing 300k. That's nearly 2 million a week. 

With the caveat that we probably need to actually be testing more than 2 million a day and tracing is still on its arse. 

 

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8 hours ago, Leyrulion said:

I'm more positive today! 

I'm less positive today. 

I read a piece yesterday with the person who'll be in charge of the vaccine roll-out, who suggested that face masks will be required until 2022. :( 

Of course, that's a medical view on things - and the medical view isn't given priority now, so might not be when a vaccine starts getting rolled out. But what was being said seemed as valid as other takes on it. 

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8 hours ago, Leyrulion said:

even France is having events with 1,000 people right now. 

I thought they'd OK'd events with 5,000 a little while back? Have they reduced it downwards again? And have there been many infections reported from the events they've had?

Personally I don't think there's any greater risk between 5,000 (or 1,000) than there is 100,000. It's not like an infected person is going to infect everyone on site. They'd only come into longer-term contact with maybe 50 people over a weekend.

Of course, a bigger event is likely to have more infected people who each infect others - so there'd be more infections from a bigger event - but it would still be the case that it'd be a smallish number who each infected person passed it on to (with incubation-time too long for those newly-infected to infect others), and those infected people are likely to be infecting others if they weren't at Glastonbury.

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6 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I'm less positive today. 

I read a piece yesterday with the person who'll be in charge of the vaccine roll-out, who suggested that face masks will be required until 2022. :( 

Of course, that's a medical view on things - and the medical view isn't given priority now, so might not be when a vaccine starts getting rolled out. But what was being said seemed as valid as other takes on it. 

Of course we haven’t mandated them in outdoor settings ..... yet unless I’ve missed it ...

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29 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Of course we haven’t mandated them in outdoor settings ..... yet unless I’ve missed it ...

but social distancing is mandated. If masks are required until 2022, that also implies that social distancing will be too. :( 

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31 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

but social distancing is mandated. If masks are required until 2022, that also implies that social distancing will be too. :( 

That was my takeaway from reading the same thing, if that crossover point is still that far away then in my head that means big events are so far away, by that time so many industries and people are going to be impacted beyond repair, I really hope that is media caution.

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24 minutes ago, Ashl said:

That was my takeaway from reading the same thing, if that crossover point is still that far away then in my head that means big events are so far away, by that time so many industries and people are going to be impacted beyond repair, I really hope that is media caution.

The big thing for me is that social distancing is mandated now and applying covid control measures has been written into guidance for holding festivals. If we get to late March and social distancing is still a requirement festival organisers must demonstrate at that point they can apply the measures in order for their festival to proceed, viz: GFL must demonstrate it can socially distance ca 235,000 people. That is unrealistic. It can't go forward at that point on the hope social distancing will be relaxed:  it needs certainty.

 

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6 minutes ago, Lycra said:

If we get to late March and social distancing is still a requirement festival organisers must demonstrate at that point they can apply the measures in order for their festival to proceed

I agree with your general point, but you're slightly inaccurate with the above.

The requirement is that a festival is able to meet the measures in place at the time of the festival, not the measures in place (say) 3 months before the festival.

that's a subtle difference and might require a big gamble by any festival - but it doesn't mean that Glastonbury need to be making plans for mask wearing & social distancing to proceed with organising their festival.

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16 minutes ago, Lycra said:

The big thing for me is that social distancing is mandated now and applying covid control measures has been written into guidance for holding festivals. If we get to late March and social distancing is still a requirement festival organisers must demonstrate at that point they can apply the measures in order for their festival to proceed, viz: GFL must demonstrate it can socially distance ca 235,000 people. That is unrealistic. It can't go forward at that point on the hope social distancing will be relaxed:  it needs certainty.

 

Agree with the above comment.

This is patently false. They are free to gamble and may do so if they see it as a bet they are likely to win.

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