Do you think Glastonbury 2021 will go ahead? 2.0

[kalifire]

My current position is that Glasto 2021 can't possibly happen if any of the following are in place:

• Restrictions on numbers of people who can gather outside
• Any social distancing requirements
• Masks have to be worn in close proximity or in large numbers of people

So the question is whether any of that is likely to be in place by the end of April at the very latest, to facilitate the build. To my understanding, the UK isn't mandating masks yet, but you will at some point.

I'm not giving up hope, but I'm trying to keep it in perspective. Short of a mass vaccine rollout by the end of the first quarter of next year, I don't see how it's possible that any large scale event can take place safely without putting thousands (and by consequence, millions) at risk.

Edited October 19, 2020 by kalifire

[eFestivals]

18 hours ago, Copperface said:

But that sort of timescale has always been the case and possibly even longer.

well, no. No one knows the timescales, and no one knows what the political position will be (as opposed to a medical position).

A vaccine isn't going to be delivered and rolled out instantly, that we do know. Beyond that it's all guesswork.

But it remains a sound guess that the political is going to override the medical to some degree.

[Zoo Music Girl]

2 hours ago, kalifire said:

My current position is that Glasto 2021 can't possibly happen if any of the following are in place:

• Restrictions on numbers of people who can gather outside
• Any social distancing requirements
• Masks have to be worn in close proximity or in large numbers of people

So the question is whether any of that is likely to be in place by the end of April at the very latest, to facilitate the build. To my understanding, the UK isn't mandating masks yet, but you will at some point.

I'm not giving up hope, but I'm trying to keep it in perspective. Short of a mass vaccine rollout by the end of the first quarter of next year, I don't see how it's possible that any large scale event can take place safely without putting thousands (and by consequence, millions) at risk.

Masks are mandatory here in shops, on public transport, in some workplaces and in hospitality when not seated and eating. But not outside yet, which I guess is the big difference.

[eFestivals]

19 hours ago, Lycra said:

Why should we not expect similar this year?

because we know much more this year than we did last year, and things are (or will be) in a different place.

If a vaccine is approved and is being rolled out, it's possible for the govt to say perhaps months-in-advance when particular restrictions will come to an end.

[eFestivals]

15 hours ago, zahidf said:

I also personally think getting compliance post vaccine will be virtually impossible. People will act like its over

I agree - although I don't really think that means much towards festivals because enforcement onto festivals is easy.

[Lycra]

4 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

because we know much more this year than we did last year, and things are (or will be) in a different place.

If a vaccine is approved and is being rolled out, it's possible for the govt to say perhaps months-in-advance when particular restrictions will come to an end.

In an ideal world you could but given the record of the monkeys in charge confidence is low. Based on my scientific & NHS inside information I'm currently 75/25 against it going ahead.

Edited October 19, 2020 by Lycra

[eFestivals]

2 hours ago, kalifire said:

My current position is that Glasto 2021 can't possibly happen if any of the following are in place:

• Restrictions on numbers of people who can gather outside
• Any social distancing requirements
• Masks have to be worn in close proximity or in large numbers of people

So the question is whether any of that is likely to be in place by the end of April at the very latest, to facilitate the build.

remember that there's different rules for work. I don't really see the current work rules having much impact on the ability to put the site together.

 

2 hours ago, kalifire said:

I'm not giving up hope, but I'm trying to keep it in perspective. Short of a mass vaccine rollout by the end of the first quarter of next year, I don't see how it's possible that any large scale event can take place safely without putting thousands (and by consequence, millions) at risk.

a mass vaccine roll-out early enough is possible - and the roll out doesn't have to be completed for the govt to be able to say "from xx date things can happen", because they should know long in advance of completion how roll-out progress is going to go.

In theory they should be able to make that forward projection almost as soon as the first vaccine arrives.

[eFestivals]

11 minutes ago, Lycra said:

In an ideal world you could but given the record of the monkeys in charge confidence is low. Based on my scientific & NHS inside information I'm currently 75/25 against it going ahead.

vaccine roll-out is something the monkeys in charge manage to do successfully every year.

[Kusy]

22 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

remember that there's different rules for work. I don't really see the current work rules having much impact on the ability to put the site together.

 

a mass vaccine roll-out early enough is possible - and the roll out doesn't have to be completed for the govt to be able to say "from xx date things can happen", because they should know long in advance of completion how roll-out progress is going to go.

In theory they should be able to make that forward projection almost as soon as the first vaccine arrives.

Let's take that the vaccine is being rolled out. The gov says that mass gatherings will be allowed to run from x.x date. But the covid cased don't stop. The'll shut everything once again. It's just a snap to enforce a ban for gatherings/festivals. 

Big concerts will be back Q4 2021 or 2022

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, Kusy said:

Let's take that the vaccine is being rolled out. The gov says that mass gatherings will be allowed to run from x.x date. But the covid cased don't stop. The'll shut everything once again. It's just a snap to enforce a ban for gatherings/festivals. 

absolutely, any timescale for moving to something better will always be subject to an idea of how they think things will be by that date - and there's always the chance of getting it wrong.

But the govt giving a projected date as early as possible is still something better for festivals than no date. They'd at least have a date to work to, and be able to make a more informed choice about the gamble of going ahead.

[Kusy]

Just now, eFestivals said:

absolutely, any timescale for moving to something better will always be subject to an idea of how they think things will be by that date - and there's always the chance of getting it wrong.

But the govt giving a projected date as early as possible is still something better for festivals than no date. They'd at least have a date to work to, and be able to make a more informed choice about the gamble of going ahead.

Indeed. Fingers crossed for a working vaccine (it looks good at the moment) and a trend with dropping cases. Then we dance

[eFestivals]

7 minutes ago, Kusy said:

Indeed. Fingers crossed for a working vaccine (it looks good at the moment) and a trend with dropping cases. Then we dance

I reckon we'll have dropping cases before the end of the year, because a sort-of herd immunity comes about within the circles of people the virus is within.

For example, it seems to mostly be unis, schools and younger people at the moment, and sooner or later the infection will go around all of the more-lax of those just as it did with health workers (and their patients) in the first wave, and there'll be fewer new people to infect. It's why infections like these comes in waves.

Edited October 19, 2020 by eFestivals

[Kusy]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I reckon we'll have dropping cases before the end of the year, because a sort-of herd immunity comes about within the circles of people the virus is within.

For example, it seems to mostly be unis, schools and younger people at the moment, and sooner or later the infection will go around all of the more-lax of those just as it did with health workers (and their patients) in the first wave, and there'll be fewer new people to infect. It's why infections like these comes in waves.

That's what I assume as well. The second wave hits hard in places that we're closed quick in March e.g. Eastern Europe. In my opinion we're in the endgame now - and it will take 6 months. 

[Lycra]

20 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

vaccine roll-out is something the monkeys in charge manage to do successfully every year.

Quite true but it takes 3 months to roll out 12m single doses which potentially equates to 6m double covid vaccinations by end March if program begins Jan 1st. Yes we should be able to speed up vaccination program once it begins but it is a question of when. However just because we have vaccination doesn't mean the problem goes away as it's success will be measured by the number of Covid infection cases and hospitalisations - actual measurements of the amount of virus circulating in the population. Health experts do not expect this to happen quickly, it will be a steady decline. For this reason social distancing, masks etc may well be here for quite a while.

We all want to get back to normal as soon as possible but patience will be required for a good while yet. The problem for us festival goers is that progress may not come fast enough to allow early season events to occur. The need to collect balances, resales and beginning site build naturally gives GFL key go/no-go points, but if the metrics of the pandemic do not show significant decline by late winter we could see an early call on festival cancellation, especially if vaccination roll out is slow or delayed. 

[Lycra]

8 minutes ago, Kusy said:

That's what I assume as well. The second wave hits hard in places that we're closed quick in March e.g. Eastern Europe. In my opinion we're in the endgame now - and it will take 6 months. 

NHS expecting covid cases for next 3yrs even with a vaccine

[Kusy]

Just now, Lycra said:

NHS expecting covid cases for next 3yrs even with a vaccine

 

Oh, of course there will be covid cases. In form of outbreaks. But with the immunity it will be easier to handle

[eFestivals]

Just now, Lycra said:

Quite true but it takes 3 months to roll out 12m single doses which potentially equates to 6m double covid vaccinations by end March if program begins Jan 1st.

that's if everything is equal. It won't be*.
(* as long as vaccine delivery is fast enough to keep up)

They've expanded the medical staff allowed to give vaccines, and a covid vaccine roll-out will be given a priority that isn't given to the yearly flu jab.

The big big factor on whether there can be normal-ish festivals next summer hinges on vaccine availability - both the starting date, and how quickly sufficient quantity can be delivered.

I remain quite hopeful with the starting date, as there's now a lot of suggestion the first vaccine is coming around the end of the year. 

How quickly we get enough vaccine is the part I've got little idea about. Some people say we've bought ourselves priority, but the UK signing up to the WHO's covax plan strongly suggests that's not how it's going to work.

[eFestivals]

5 minutes ago, Lycra said:

NHS expecting covid cases for next 3yrs even with a vaccine

when the govt plan is not to vaccinate everyone, that's a given.

It's also a given that there's govt acceptance of normal life after the vaccine roll-out with the vaccine circulating, because otherwise they'd plan to roll out the vaccine to more people.

[Lycra]

1 minute ago, Kusy said:

Oh, of course there will be covid cases. In form of outbreaks. But with the immunity it will be easier to handle

In the longer term yes, but it will be quite a while yet before we get there. All effort this year has been based on containment and suppression. Remember to phrase "flatten the curve". This was about stopping the NHS being overwhelmed but as a consequence it elongated the period for which the virus runs.

[Lycra]

17 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

that's if everything is equal. It won't be*.
(* as long as vaccine delivery is fast enough to keep up)

They've expanded the medical staff allowed to give vaccines, and a covid vaccine roll-out will be given a priority that isn't given to the yearly flu jab.

The big big factor on whether there can be normal-ish festivals next summer hinges on vaccine availability - both the starting date, and how quickly sufficient quantity can be delivered.

I remain quite hopeful with the starting date, as there's now a lot of suggestion the first vaccine is coming around the end of the year. 

How quickly we get enough vaccine is the part I've got little idea about. Some people say we've bought ourselves priority, but the UK signing up to the WHO's covax plan strongly suggests that's not how it's going to work.

What you say is correct but the key thing missing is measurement of the effect of the vaccination program. Results aren't instant and sufficient progress may not be made in 2021H1 to allow other infection control measures to be relaxed.

Edited October 19, 2020 by Lycra

[zahidf]

17 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

when the govt plan is not to vaccinate everyone, that's a given.

It's also a given that there's govt acceptance of normal life after the vaccine roll-out with the vaccine circulating, because otherwise they'd plan to roll out the vaccine to more people.

Its getting it to the most vulnerable people and clinical workers, and then roll out the rest to healthy people. I dont see the political will to keep things closed and socially distant if the death rate is going to be a lot lower.

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

and then roll out the rest to healthy people.

no, that's not the current plan. It's the vulnerable and health workers only.

Whether or not it's worth rolling out to everyone else is something that'll be evaluated off the back of the initial roll-out

 

[eFestivals]

7 minutes ago, zahidf said:

I dont see the political will to keep things closed and socially distant if the death rate is going to be a lot lower.

I sort of agree with you, although it's never been about the death rate. It's always been about the NHS's ability to cope with the demands caused by covid.

I personally think restrictions will be eased as much as possible from the spring, although with 'protecting the NHS' always top of the priority list. I just don't see the political will within the tory party for any other path.

[Copperface]

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

well, no. No one knows the timescales, and no one knows what the political position will be (as opposed to a medical position).

A vaccine isn't going to be delivered and rolled out instantly, that we do know. Beyond that it's all guesswork.

But it remains a sound guess that the political is going to override the medical to some degree.

I didn't say that the timescales are known. What I did say back in March and June was that most resilience planning was based on a two year timescale as a start and even that came with the caveat that it was open ended. Many just ignored that and convinced themselves it would all be over by August this year.

In mid March we were being informed of an initial 15-18 months of restrictions

So yes, within that framework, things may change for the better or for the worse over the next several months, and it is still possible that restrictions may be lifted further, or imposed more harshly if required, but the fact is that it was clearly envisaged that progress with this disease would be measured in years, not weeks or months. I also specifically highlighted that that is the reason the the Health Regs were initially introduced with a an initial lifespan of two years. So to be surprised when you read that face coverings may still be required in a years time makes me roll my eyes a bit.

Not a surprise at all.

 

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, Copperface said:

So to be surprised when you read that face coverings may still be required in a years time makes me roll my eyes a bit.

Roll your eyes back at yourself. I wasn't surprised.

I am hopeful of things being different to that for the reasons already given.