Do you think Glastonbury 2021 will go ahead? 2.0

[Avalon_Fields]

Heart says yes, head says no.

Based on the chances of a vaccine being approved and a good proportion of the population made safe by the time the festival has to make a decision, it’s very touch and go.

[parsonjack]

If we don't have very positive news on vaccine, mass testing or other similar steps in the right direction by Christmas.....it ain't happening.

[Hugh Jass]

Last year they made the go/no go call at the end of March, just before balances were due and the build started. I’d expect the same next year.

[Barney McGrew]

I reckon next year will be baby steps back to normality... roll on 2020!

 

[squirrelarmy]

1 hour ago, Hugh Jass said:

Last year they made the go/no go call at the end of March, just before balances were due and the build started. I’d expect the same next year.

Close this thread till March?

[jannybruck]

Yeah, end of February has been loosely talked about by EU festivals as the time they'll need to make a decision. I can't see any festival making the call either way before then. There's a lot that can happen in four months.

[Losing my hair]

52 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Close this thread till March?

Yes please or it will just turn into another Weather Thread with spreadsheets and pointless speculation - although that could be a definition of an internet forum so we had probably keep it.

[Homer]

It's a no from me, I'm afraid.

[Hugh Jass]

1 hour ago, Losing my hair said:

Yes please or it will just turn into another Weather Thread with spreadsheets and pointless speculation - although that could be a definition of an internet forum so we had probably keep it.

How about if we do Simpsons memes about voting?

 

[One Tonne Baby]

Maybe happening but only in September when it’s pushed back

[OG]

47 minutes ago, One Tonne Baby said:

Maybe happening but only in September when it’s pushed back

I am not really not sure about a September date. I did all the Bestivals on the Isle of Wight and only got 1 "really bad one" all the rest were amazing weather.  on the other hand I have done 4 Alchemy in Lincolnshire and only got 1 "really good one" Glastonbury Is mid-way between the two geographically so I would be worried about the weather

[OG]

I reread that and its not as if Glastonbury has "predictable" weather in June, so yeah September sounds good

Edited October 12, 2020 by OG
shit spelling

[henry bear]

8 hours ago, One Tonne Baby said:

Maybe happening but only in September when it’s pushed back

They’ve already said this won’t happen

[hfuhruhurr]

I really hope it will.

There's one thing worse than having a ticket and the festival being postponed, and that's not having a ticket!

A move to September would probably create as many problems as it solves. But I'd vote for that if it meant it went ahead.

[Lycra]

I'm less optimistic today given the latest pandemic news and internal NHS noises warning of potentially very high case loads throughout the winter and into next year. I'd already factored in a significant up tick in covid through the colder months but the latest data and forecasts point to a long winter of high infection numbers. Yes it is a fluid evolving situation, the course of which is difficult to predict for the longer term, but the metrics have been going the wrong way for 6 weeks or more. If it continues this way we are heading back to square one by December (or even much earlier) and getting perilously close to decision dates for holding early summer festivals.

Vaccination will hopefully come to our rescue at some future point but this as yet is an unproven potential which if/when approved will take time to both implement and have the desired effect. Hence delays here add to my growing fears.

Hopefully I'm totally wrong in all this. I'll try to remember to get out of the other side of the bed tomorrow.

[Losing my hair]

9 hours ago, Hugh Jass said:

How about if we do Simpsons memes about voting?

 

 

[Matt42]

I’ve thought that 2021 is a no-go from the moment Emily wrote off a September date tbh.

There’s probably a good reason but I think it wasn’t a smart move ruling out a September date so early. Because early summer has no chance of going ahead.

I do think we will have another year of no events going ahead. Said in another thread but one of valance / whitty saying that a vaccine widely available for winter 2021 matches up with how things are going. We won’t be moving anywhere between now and June.

Edited October 13, 2020 by Matt42

[morph100]

I think we may well be in a position to have Glastonbury by end of June but we might not be in a position to set it up and gamble on it in March, April, May.

Crossing all my plasticine fingers

[henry bear]

Apparently about 10% of the population has been exposed to the virus. Let us assume that by next spring it’s up to around 20%.
For herd immunity to work (the point at which the virus has nowhere else to go), approximately 60% of the population will have to have the antibodies. Therefore we’ll have to have vaccinated about 40% of the population. Apparently the idea is to only vaccinate about half the population anyway. 

Should vaccination start to be rolled out around the new year then I guess it’s possible (don’t forget it’s likely to be a double jab, a few weeks apart). But given the government’s track record on everything to do with the pandemic, I do have my doubts that they can do this in good time

Edited October 13, 2020 by henry bear

[eFestivals]

6 minutes ago, henry bear said:

Apparently about 10% of the population has been exposed to the virus. Let us assume that by next spring it’s up to around 20%.
For herd immunity to work (the point at which the virus has nowhere else to go), approximately 60% of the population will have to have the antibodies. Therefore we’ll have to have vaccinated about 40% of the population. Apparently the idea is to only vaccinate about half the population anyway. 

Should vaccination start to be rolled out around the new year then I guess it’s possible (don’t forget it’s likely to be a double jab, a few weeks apart). But given the government’s track record on everything to do with the pandemic, I do have my doubts that they can do this in good time

 

as things stand the govt aren't going for a 'herd immunity' approach with any vaccine, and only plan to vaccinate the vulnerable and health workers.

How far they can get with that and how quickly is dependent on getting enough vaccine, but I reckon it'd be difficult for the govt to fuck up the roll-out as it'll be very similar to the flu jab which they do every year.

As they don't plan to vaccinate everyone then it follows they'll be unconcerned with the virus circulating within everyone else, to some degree at least.

Edited October 13, 2020 by eFestivals

[Lycra]

3 minutes ago, henry bear said:

Apparently about 10% of the population has been exposed to the virus. Let us assume that by next spring it’s up to around 20%.
For herd immunity to work (the point at which the virus has nowhere else to go), approximately 60% of the population will have to have the antibodies. Therefore we’ll have to have vaccinated about 40% of the population. Apparently the idea is to only vaccinate about half the population anyway. 

Should vaccination start to be rolled out around the new year then I guess it’s possible (don’t forget it’s likely to be a double jab, a few weeks apart). But given the government’s track record on everything to do with the pandemic, I do have my doubts that they can do this in good time

The problem is we don't know how long acquired immunity lasts or which people have it. Simple tests can identify those who've been infected but not the quality of their antibodies. So to get true herd immunity a greater number than the 40% suggested will have to be vaccinated. And if you do the maths this will be slow to achieve. For instance, if a vaccination programme starts 1 Jan 2021 delivering 1 million shots of a double dose vaccine per week it only amounts to 6.5 million vaccinated by the end of March, i.e approx 10% UK population. 

[jannybruck]

33 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

As they don't plan to vaccinate everyone then it follows they'll be unconcerned with the virus circulating within everyone else, to some degree at least.

Yep, which indicates that once they've started rolling out vaccinations (which everyone expects to be in place by early next year) then they'll be opening things up again bit by bit.

You all need to remember there's already quite an extremely effective flu jab infrastructure in place right now (it's being done almost on an industrial scale – I was surprised at how efficient it was, to the point of getting an appointment timed to the very minute, in and out a different exit within a couple of minutes), and the Covid vaccine rollout is meant to piggyback off this. As soon as the vaccine's been approved it's pretty much ready to go.

[Lycra]

26 minutes ago, jannybruck said:

Yep, which indicates that once they've started rolling out vaccinations (which everyone expects to be in place by early next year) then they'll be opening things up again bit by bit.

You all need to remember there's already quite an extremely effective flu jab infrastructure in place right now (it's being done almost on an industrial scale – I was surprised at how efficient it was, to the point of getting an appointment timed to the very minute, in and out a different exit within a couple of minutes), and the Covid vaccine rollout is meant to piggyback off this. As soon as the vaccine's been approved it's pretty much ready to go.

Yes there is a very efficient flu vaccination program which dispenses approx 12 - 14 million single doses approx 3 months each autumn. The proposed covid vaccinations are double so the roll out would be slower if it was like for like. Additionally we know there are many vulnerable people who opt out of the flu vaccination or have yet to be identified. As we go forward I believe we should not expect relaxation of Covid restrictions based on numbers being vaccinated but on the hard data of the number of infections and those hospitalised.

[faymondo]

Heading into the darkest period of the pandemic with rising cases etc but no get out of spring and summer coming like in March.

A lot will change by March and I think It would take a vaccination announcement early next year to allow a Glastonbury call to be made by late March.

Sadly I think Glastonbury is too big with the build etc starting in Spring so I think it will be a no.

I do however expect some smaller festivals to possibly happen in 2021.

Such is the state of affairs just be made up to get back to normality in Liverpool as a first goal in life !!!

 

[blutarsky]

39 minutes ago, Lycra said:

As we go forward I believe we should not expect relaxation of Covid restrictions based on numbers being vaccinated but on the hard data of the number of infections and those hospitalised.

Not with this lot in charge - they’ll be desperate to put the cart before the horse and get ‘back to normal’. 

Johnson will be all, “we’ve got a vaccine, so go forth and shake hands with everyone you meet freedom loving Britons of Perfidious Albion what, what phwoar”. 

We know he loves the classics and mythology so don’t be surprised when the government goes all Icarus and flies too close to the sun again, like they did with Eat Out, Back to Work and Back to School in the space of a few weeks.