2021 chances

[thrillhouse188]

I still suspect there will be a clear distinction between "measures that are actually effective" and "measures the government will impose on festivals to look like they're trying". Maybe in practise it won't do much, but I could see ticking off a few boxes such as punters having a negative test form the week prior, removing large indoor stages, and temp checks upon arrival helping convince the government/public that it's safe enough to go ahead

[Wooderson]

2 minutes ago, thrillhouse188 said:

I still suspect there will be a clear distinction between "measures that are actually effective" and "measures the government will impose on festivals to look like they're trying". Maybe in practise it won't do much, but I could see ticking off a few boxes such as punters having a negative test form the week prior, removing large indoor stages, and temp checks upon arrival helping convince the government/public that it's safe enough to go ahead

Fair point. Very naive of me to comment responsibly when it comes to Perfidious Albion.

[arcade fireman]

2 hours ago, Wooderson said:

I think the festival needs a longer run up / more stability and predictability to run next June. Soz.

If the silver bullet vaccine emerges in 6-8 weeks time, 2021 will be a huge global task of admin to get that to the at risk and the frontline to begin. We will start to see efficacy and then a "return" can proceed in earnest. Too risky and too little time otherwise.

Until this point any large green-field event like Glasters would be mad to start spending money with booking and programming/commercial agreements/staffing/insurance/site building/subsequent year prep etc..

2022 far more viable with a vaccine this autumn.

I generally agree with this. I think it's less likely than more likely we'll see a festival next year.

I think some people will be getting vaccinated first quarter next year. But the Phase III reporting that's coming for some vaccines before the end of the year will likely be initial interim results.

Unless those results are really good then it's likely we may see some emergency interim approval to use on healthcare workers and (possibly) the most vulnerable around February, but Phase III trials will likely continue for a while longer to get better results and longer time for safety data.

And there can (and in some cases probably will) be bumps in the road for some candidates. Oxford vaccine trials are being held up in the US because of two cases of transverse myelitis - not having those patients in the trial until later is likely going to hold up the vaccine as they'd recruited a lot of patients in the US. Trials are still ongoing in UK and Brazil, but the fewer the subjects the longer it'll take to see if there's an effect.

The first vaccines likely won't be a silver bullet. It's much more likely to prevent severe disease (protective immunity) than infection (sterilising immunity) for a respiratory disease. This is partly because any intramuscular vaccination will stimulate IgG antibodies which circulate in the bloodstream but aren't found much on respiratory mucosal lining (IgA antibodies are generally found here). 

If you really want to stimulate IgA easily you want a nasally delivered vaccine (some are being developed for Covid and already exist for other pathogens). That said, it's possible to get sterilising immunity for a respiratory pathogen too, but it's likely these will come with later vaccines.  

So a vaccine which reduces severe complications but doesn't stop people from getting the virus will be inherently unpredictable. One thing which trials might not be able to spot is how well our imperfect vaccine affects transmissions. This is much harder to study in Phase III are you're studying each individual trial subject - you can't study every person they're coming into contact with.

Another issue is the elderly often don't mount as good a response to many vaccines. So the very people you want to protect might not be as well protected, and the vaccines also probably won't fully stop infections so herd immunity will likely be difficult. They will likely significantly reduce mortality and (hopefully) transmissions though.

All of this means that even after vaccinations happen (which will take a bit of time), we'll likely see a gradual return to some sort of normal. They'll likely relax some restrictions, see what happens, relax some more. And this just won't be in the UK - it'll be most countries with this approach. Festivals usually need the touring ecosystem to be running - it needs to make sense for bands to hop from country to country, maybe doing smaller shows in between. This part I'm less knowledgable on but I'd imagine it'll take a fair amount of time to start up again.

So for all these reasons I find it difficult to see the Festival being planned for 2021. Even if it's theoretically possible, I think the return to some form of normalcy will be necessarily gradual. And while we'll get some a fair few freedoms back by June 2021, packing 200k+ people together on a farm where sanitary conditions aren't usually pandemic friendly and likely lots of asymptomatic transmission could happen seems very tough.

Edited October 9, 2020 by arcade fireman

[Quark]

40 minutes ago, Wooderson said:

Fair point. Very naive of me to comment responsibly when it comes to Perfidious Albion.

Hate that phrase, mainly because I know it's so bloody justified!

[circus92]

48 minutes ago, drunk pumpkin said:

More sanitiser stations and lots of covid information everywhere encouraging hand hygiene and safe distancing (or use a mask) when in a crowd.

There is absolutely zero chance of enforcing safe distancing when in a crowd, especially somewhere like Glastonbury. Even if they could, it just wouldn't be worth it - it would ruin the vibe completely.

No issues with the other measures (temp checks, sanitiser etc), but personally speaking I would not be in favour of enforcing masks at all.  This was to be my first year at Glasto and I was beyond excited, but if they were to insist on mask wearing in crowds next year, I would reluctantly have to return my tickets and wait for normality to resume.  The thought of standing in a field full of people wearing masks and not being able to see the looks of joy on their faces would just not be worth it for me.

Would be interested to hear what you all think - Glasto next year with mandatory mask wearing, or wait until masks are not necessary? 

 

Also, loving all the positivity - liking this thread  👍

[drunk pumpkin]

3 minutes ago, circus92 said:

There is absolutely zero chance of enforcing safe distancing when in a crowd, especially somewhere like Glastonbury. Even if they could, it just wouldn't be worth it - it would ruin the vibe completely.

No issues with the other measures (temp checks, sanitiser etc), but personally speaking I would not be in favour of enforcing masks at all.  This was to be my first year at Glasto and I was beyond excited, but if they were to insist on mask wearing in crowds next year, I would reluctantly have to return my tickets and wait for normality to resume.  The thought of standing in a field full of people wearing masks and not being able to see the looks of joy on their faces would just not be worth it for me.

Would be interested to hear what you all think - Glasto next year with mandatory mask wearing, or wait until masks are not necessary? 

 

Also, loving all the positivity - liking this thread  👍

I totally agree that there is zero chance of mask wearing being enforced.  It could be  a recommendation from the festival and personal choice.

Honestly i wont want to wear a mask in-front of an outdoor stage.  Could consider it inside though if that was the only way.

[Edibles]

18 minutes ago, arcade fireman said:

I generally agree with this. I think it's less likely than more likely we'll see a festival next year.

I think some people will be getting vaccinated first quarter next year. But the Phase III reporting that's coming for some vaccines before the end of the year will likely be initial interim results.

Unless those results are really good then it's likely we may see some emergency interim approval to use on healthcare workers and (possibly) the most vulnerable around February, but Phase III trials will likely continue for a while longer to get better results and longer time for safety data.

And there can (and in some cases probably will) be bumps in the road for some candidates. Oxford vaccine trials are being held up in the US because of two cases of transverse myelitis - not having those patients in the trial until later is likely going to hold up the vaccine as they'd recruited a lot of patients in the US. Trials are still ongoing in UK and Brazil, but the fewer the subjects the longer it'll take to see if there's an effect.

The first vaccines likely won't be a silver bullet. It's much more likely to prevent severe disease (protective immunity) than infection (sterilising immunity) for a respiratory disease. This is partly because any intramuscular vaccination will stimulate IgG antibodies which circulate in the bloodstream but aren't found much on respiratory mucosal lining (IgA antibodies are generally found here). 

If you really want to stimulate IgA easily you want a nasally delivered vaccine (some are being developed for Covid and already exist for other pathogens). That said, it's possible to get sterilising immunity for a respiratory pathogen too, but it's likely these will come with later vaccines.  

So a vaccine which reduces severe complications but doesn't stop people from getting the virus will be inherently unpredictable. One thing which trials might not be able to spot is how well our imperfect vaccine affects transmissions. This is much harder to study in Phase III are you're studying each individual trial subject - you can't study every person they're coming into contact with.

Another issue is the elderly often don't mount as good a response to many vaccines. So the very people you want to protect might not be as well protected, and the vaccines also probably won't fully stop infections so herd immunity will likely be difficult. They will likely significantly reduce mortality and (hopefully) transmissions though.

All of this means that even after vaccinations happen (which will take a bit of time), we'll likely see a gradual return to some sort of normal. They'll likely relax some restrictions, see what happens, relax some more. And this just won't be in the UK - it'll be most countries with this approach. Festivals usually need the touring ecosystem to be running - it needs to make sense for bands to hop from country to country, maybe doing smaller shows in between. This part I'm less knowledgable on but I'd imagine it'll take a fair amount of time to start up again.

So for all these reasons I find it difficult to see the Festival being planned for 2021. Even if it's theoretically possible, I think the return to some form of normalcy will be necessarily gradual. And while we'll get some a fair few freedoms back by June 2021, packing 200k+ people together on a farm where sanitary conditions aren't usually pandemic friendly and likely lots of asymptomatic transmission could happen seems very tough.

Thanks for that. Think we’re end the thread here 🙄

[Leyrulion]

I'm moving more towards 40/60 that is won't happen. 

Mostly because I live where they're trialling the mass testing "operation moonshot" and it's massively delayed. Without that sort of quick mass testing I don't see how events happen.

Still, only October so plenty of time to fix it 

[Pinhead]

3 hours ago, arcade fireman said:

I generally agree with this. I think it's less likely than more likely we'll see a festival next year.

I think some people will be getting vaccinated first quarter next year. But the Phase III reporting that's coming for some vaccines before the end of the year will likely be initial interim results.

Unless those results are really good then it's likely we may see some emergency interim approval to use on healthcare workers and (possibly) the most vulnerable around February, but Phase III trials will likely continue for a while longer to get better results and longer time for safety data.

And there can (and in some cases probably will) be bumps in the road for some candidates. Oxford vaccine trials are being held up in the US because of two cases of transverse myelitis - not having those patients in the trial until later is likely going to hold up the vaccine as they'd recruited a lot of patients in the US. Trials are still ongoing in UK and Brazil, but the fewer the subjects the longer it'll take to see if there's an effect.

The first vaccines likely won't be a silver bullet. It's much more likely to prevent severe disease (protective immunity) than infection (sterilising immunity) for a respiratory disease. This is partly because any intramuscular vaccination will stimulate IgG antibodies which circulate in the bloodstream but aren't found much on respiratory mucosal lining (IgA antibodies are generally found here). 

If you really want to stimulate IgA easily you want a nasally delivered vaccine (some are being developed for Covid and already exist for other pathogens). That said, it's possible to get sterilising immunity for a respiratory pathogen too, but it's likely these will come with later vaccines.  

So a vaccine which reduces severe complications but doesn't stop people from getting the virus will be inherently unpredictable. One thing which trials might not be able to spot is how well our imperfect vaccine affects transmissions. This is much harder to study in Phase III are you're studying each individual trial subject - you can't study every person they're coming into contact with.

Another issue is the elderly often don't mount as good a response to many vaccines. So the very people you want to protect might not be as well protected, and the vaccines also probably won't fully stop infections so herd immunity will likely be difficult. They will likely significantly reduce mortality and (hopefully) transmissions though.

All of this means that even after vaccinations happen (which will take a bit of time), we'll likely see a gradual return to some sort of normal. They'll likely relax some restrictions, see what happens, relax some more. And this just won't be in the UK - it'll be most countries with this approach. Festivals usually need the touring ecosystem to be running - it needs to make sense for bands to hop from country to country, maybe doing smaller shows in between. This part I'm less knowledgable on but I'd imagine it'll take a fair amount of time to start up again.

So for all these reasons I find it difficult to see the Festival being planned for 2021. Even if it's theoretically possible, I think the return to some form of normalcy will be necessarily gradual. And while we'll get some a fair few freedoms back by June 2021, packing 200k+ people together on a farm where sanitary conditions aren't usually pandemic friendly and likely lots of asymptomatic transmission could happen seems very tough.

My missus agrees with this assessment- she's a clinical immunologist as well...

[eFestivals]

18 hours ago, arcade fireman said:

I generally agree with this. I think it's less likely than more likely we'll see a festival next year.

I think some people will be getting vaccinated first quarter next year. But the Phase III reporting that's coming for some vaccines before the end of the year will likely be initial interim results.

Unless those results are really good then it's likely we may see some emergency interim approval to use on healthcare workers and (possibly) the most vulnerable around February, but Phase III trials will likely continue for a while longer to get better results and longer time for safety data.

And there can (and in some cases probably will) be bumps in the road for some candidates. Oxford vaccine trials are being held up in the US because of two cases of transverse myelitis - not having those patients in the trial until later is likely going to hold up the vaccine as they'd recruited a lot of patients in the US. Trials are still ongoing in UK and Brazil, but the fewer the subjects the longer it'll take to see if there's an effect.

The first vaccines likely won't be a silver bullet. It's much more likely to prevent severe disease (protective immunity) than infection (sterilising immunity) for a respiratory disease. This is partly because any intramuscular vaccination will stimulate IgG antibodies which circulate in the bloodstream but aren't found much on respiratory mucosal lining (IgA antibodies are generally found here). 

If you really want to stimulate IgA easily you want a nasally delivered vaccine (some are being developed for Covid and already exist for other pathogens). That said, it's possible to get sterilising immunity for a respiratory pathogen too, but it's likely these will come with later vaccines.  

So a vaccine which reduces severe complications but doesn't stop people from getting the virus will be inherently unpredictable. One thing which trials might not be able to spot is how well our imperfect vaccine affects transmissions. This is much harder to study in Phase III are you're studying each individual trial subject - you can't study every person they're coming into contact with.

Another issue is the elderly often don't mount as good a response to many vaccines. So the very people you want to protect might not be as well protected, and the vaccines also probably won't fully stop infections so herd immunity will likely be difficult. They will likely significantly reduce mortality and (hopefully) transmissions though.

All of this means that even after vaccinations happen (which will take a bit of time), we'll likely see a gradual return to some sort of normal. They'll likely relax some restrictions, see what happens, relax some more. And this just won't be in the UK - it'll be most countries with this approach. Festivals usually need the touring ecosystem to be running - it needs to make sense for bands to hop from country to country, maybe doing smaller shows in between. This part I'm less knowledgable on but I'd imagine it'll take a fair amount of time to start up again.

So for all these reasons I find it difficult to see the Festival being planned for 2021. Even if it's theoretically possible, I think the return to some form of normalcy will be necessarily gradual. And while we'll get some a fair few freedoms back by June 2021, packing 200k+ people together on a farm where sanitary conditions aren't usually pandemic friendly and likely lots of asymptomatic transmission could happen seems very tough.

without wanting to rip apart a clearly-informed take on things, there's a few things in there which are probably further away from the likely-to-happen than they need to be.

According to WHO, there'll be enough vaccine pre-made of any of the 5 prime candidates by the end of the year to let each country have enough for 3% of their population. And while all of those 5 candidates might not come thru, it's likely that at least one of them will do.

There's no plan for the UK to vaccinate everyone - just the vulnerable and health workers, pretty-much the flu list - which means an acceptance that the virus will be circulating in everyone else. 

Remember, the govt plan all the way thru has been about protecting the NHS. 

And the public - and tory MPs - are not going to accept restrictions forever. If things don't open up for next summer they never will do.

And Dido Harding is going to demand that horse racing happens. If that can, festivals can.

[squirrelarmy]

On 10/9/2020 at 8:16 AM, blutarsky said:

Some inventor type needs to get on the case with making a mask 😷 you can drink with. Surely you could attach a device similar to the one way valve you get on inflatables your the front of a mask, giving the opportunity to put a straw through. This would then self seal when straw was withdrawn, meaning no egress of potentially contagious droplets? 
 

Feasible? If so, consider it patented by me. 

Alcohol IV lines are the future. 

[squirrelarmy]

28 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

And Dido Harding is going to demand that horse racing happens. If that can, festivals can.

By the 16th of March we will know, Tickets aren’t on sale for Cheltenham yet but registration for getting one is. 

Outdoor events will be happening. Just be prepared to be asked to isolate after returning from a large event like this. 
 

100% club is back 😁

[Chrisp1986]

3 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

By the 16th of March we will know, Tickets aren’t on sale for Cheltenham yet but registration for getting one is. 

Outdoor events will be happening. Just be prepared to be asked to isolate after returning from a large event like this. 
 

100% club is back 😁

There is NO WAY my work will allow me to self isolate!

[squirrelarmy]

2 minutes ago, Chrisp1986 said:

There is NO WAY my work will allow me to self isolate!

It’s not down to your work. If legally you have to isolate they will have no choice but to let you. 

Just don’t tell them you’re having that initial week off for Glastonbury.

 

[Blisterpack]

13 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

By the 16th of March we will know, Tickets aren’t on sale for Cheltenham yet but registration for getting one is. 

Outdoor events will be happening. Just be prepared to be asked to isolate after returning from a large event like this. 
 

100% club is back 😁

Cheltenham can comfortably happen (of sorts) with a 10-20% capacity with meaningful crowd control and social distancing. It won’t be a true indicator of Glastonbury happening. 

[circus92]

49 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

And Dido Harding is going to demand that horse racing happens. If that can, festivals can.

With mandatory mask wearing or without?

[eFestivals]

18 minutes ago, circus92 said:

With mandatory mask wearing or without?

Good question. I can see them saying masks need to be worn in a crowd, or I can see them saying they don't.

The reality is that within any mostly-static outdoor crowd you're only in unsafe contact with a few people, and ultimately not really much different to (say) being at an outdoor bar.

[eFestivals]

27 minutes ago, Blisterpack said:

Cheltenham can comfortably happen (of sorts) with a 10-20% capacity with meaningful crowd control and social distancing. It won’t be a true indicator of Glastonbury happening. 

Cheltenham is in March, isn't it? I'd say that rules it out of being a Glastonbury indicator, with the current covid laws expiring on 31st March.

Horse racing (from April) will be pushing hard for full capacity, as that's where the money is. 

[squirrelarmy]

18 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Cheltenham is in March, isn't it? I'd say that rules it out of being a Glastonbury indicator, with the current covid laws expiring on 31st March.

Horse racing (from April) will be pushing hard for full capacity, as that's where the money is. 

Cheltenham Racecourse is also owned by the Jockey Club who has Dildo Harding as a director. She will get what she wants with this government. 

[arcade fireman]

3 hours ago, eFestivals said:

without wanting to rip apart a clearly-informed take on things, there's a few things in there which are probably further away from the likely-to-happen than they need to be.

According to WHO, there'll be enough vaccine pre-made of any of the 5 prime candidates by the end of the year to let each country have enough for 3% of their population. And while all of those 5 candidates might not come thru, it's likely that at least one of them will do.

There's no plan for the UK to vaccinate everyone - just the vulnerable and health workers, pretty-much the flu list - which means an acceptance that the virus will be circulating in everyone else. 

Remember, the govt plan all the way thru has been about protecting the NHS. 

And the public - and tory MPs - are not going to accept restrictions forever. If things don't open up for next summer they never will do.

And Dido Harding is going to demand that horse racing happens. If that can, festivals can.

I've seen the comments from the Vaccine Taskforce about not planning to vaccinate everyone, but that's hugely dependent on the properties of the vaccine, is based on things that are unknowable right now so I wouldn't put much stock in it.

A lot of vaccines don't work in the elderly nearly as well. So I think it's quite likely that even with an imperfect vaccine you'd want to minimise spread by vaccinating large numbers of the population even if herd immunity itself isn't possible. Of course we could get a great vaccine that does both but consensus seems to be this seems less likely in this first group.

If they do, then great! But I'm not sure they will. And a lot of Phase III trials aren't incorporating large numbers of elderly people. In most countries the elderly are locking themselves away too and your trials in those countries (Brazil, USA, South Africa common sites) would need significant numbers of vaccinated elderly patients to actually put themselves at risk of contracting the infection to compare with the control group. We might not have good data on this from Phase III, we could look at antibody responses from Phase II if available but it might not give clear answers. So again we'd need to wait.

Other events can be run at lower capacity and/or be better distanced. Very difficult to distance Glastonbury - how do you distance the Pyramid pit? Also rapid testing could be with us next summer but can't think it'd work well for a multi-day event where everyone stays on site and could be incubating the virus so could be negative on Wednesday but positive and contagious by Friday.

Ultimately I think the issue with a likely imperfect vaccine is that it'll create a situation that's unpredictable and where we'll be playing wait and see for maybe six months give or take. And Glastonbury (and other festivals and live music events, I'm just not sure Glastonbury gets a proper roster without live music in general recovering to a fair extent) needs more certainty which I'm not sure it'd get by March/April. It's not impossible if *everything* goes right, but I'd say less likely.

[Avalon_Fields]

Just a thought: is an added complication the potential for much reduced availability of bands, with tours so difficult to plan now and for the foreseeable, many will be waiting for more certain times to schedule in dates, and a fair number are already postponing to late 2021, which may mean a significant issue for summer festivals. I guess this will be particularly the case with overseas acts, impacting on the Pyramid, West Holts in particular. Is there a threat the quality/diversity of the festival may be so jeopardized and risks damaging the reputation meaning it holds off until 2022??

[henry bear]

8 minutes ago, Avalon_Fields said:

Just a thought: is an added complication the potential for much reduced availability of bands, with tours so difficult to plan now and for the foreseeable, many will be waiting for more certain times to schedule in dates, and a fair number are already postponing to late 2021, which may mean a significant issue for summer festivals. I guess this will be particularly the case with overseas acts, impacting on the Pyramid, West Holts in particular. Is there a threat the quality/diversity of the festival may be so jeopardized and risks damaging the reputation meaning it holds off until 2022??

I was listening to an interview with Louisa Roach of She Drew The Gun recently, and she was saying how hard it is for acts to book gigs because so many tours have just been put back 12 months leaving very little scope for new concerts to be pencilled in. I expect a fair degree of the proposed Glasto 21 will have been rolled over from Glasto 20.

[tigger123]

25 minutes ago, Avalon_Fields said:

Just a thought: is an added complication the potential for much reduced availability of bands, with tours so difficult to plan now and for the foreseeable, many will be waiting for more certain times to schedule in dates, and a fair number are already postponing to late 2021, which may mean a significant issue for summer festivals. I guess this will be particularly the case with overseas acts, impacting on the Pyramid, West Holts in particular. Is there a threat the quality/diversity of the festival may be so jeopardized and risks damaging the reputation meaning it holds off until 2022??

Hopefully if the festival is allowed to go ahead, people will be understanding if the lineup isn’t to the usual high calibre. I for one would just be so happy if it goes ahead at all, even if it ends up with Fatboy Slim and Billy Bragg headlining the pyramid! 

[Crazyfool01]

There might be the odd band in slightly higher places than they might be before ... but the festival likes to promote talent anyway and take the odd punt ... maybe we might get a slightly more British lineup depending on restrictions on Travel if they haven’t eased ... but like the poster above said ... most people would just be happy with any festival and any lineup 

[Matt42]

I personally can’t see the 2021 festival going ahead as it stands. We aren’t getting a vaccine until mid next year at the earliest, and people actually getting to take the vaccine even further away.

Cant remember whether it was valance or Whitty who said that the vaccine will probably be available winter 2021, but it’s looking pretty spot on with every day that comes.

Doesn’t mean I’m going to stop speculating about lineups etc.

Plus - the reason why I don’t think it will be going ahead is many mainland European counties / some in America have put in measures to allow concerts and events to happen again. Clubs have reopened in Switzerland etc. The problem is we are way off that here and I don’t think our government will give the greenlight for events like Glasto until the vaccine is widely available. The tories don’t like events like Glastonbury anyway so they aren’t going to be in a rush to get them back.