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Future of festivals...

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On 5/22/2020 at 4:58 PM, crazyfool1 said:

i think the tickets is more likely than the festival at this stage ... was it 2009 that the festival last struggled to sell out ....  did that not coincide with last recession ? or have I got years wrong ? I know other factors were at play to ...

It was 2008. The thinking was that it was due to an exceptionally wet 2007 festival and possibly the bad press over Jay Z headlining.

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On 5/22/2020 at 1:11 PM, Neil said:

I'm not accusing Melvin of telling porkies, but then again he's not going to say anything different to this. It's much like the Eavis "best festival ever".

And I don't really think it's anything more than a the sort of hopeful guess any of us could make, because there's no perfect info so everyone is pissing in the wind.

I'd like to think Melvin is right, but it's ultimately just his personal (and perhaps overly-hopeful) guess.

If we do get 30m doses of vaccine in October, with more types of vaccines landing over the next few months then you would think that spring festivals do look pretty likely.

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52 minutes ago, Johnnyseven said:

It was 2008. The thinking was that it was due to an exceptionally wet 2007 festival and possibly the bad press over Jay Z headlining.

It also took a few weeks (months?) to sell out in 2009.  Best case scenario - everyone got a ticket and the festival sold out in plenty of time to the big day.

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15 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

If we do get 30m doses of vaccine in October, with more types of vaccines landing over the next few months then you would think that spring festivals do look pretty likely.

I've got no doubts about festies happening next summer, in all scenarios except if covid mutates into something more deadly.

Because the UK just can't afford to have the hospitality sector shut down for so long, and it's impossible to justify certain sectors being open (as they will be) without all sectors being open.

(it's a bit easier at the mo, because the weather is good enough to be outside. That ends in Sept).

I think it's possible gigs & festies going ahead will have the condition that attending might require every attendee to isolate if there's a cluster of infections linked to any event, but not if there's just one or two.

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-52893654

"Melvin's idea to get festivals (and other entertainment and sporting events) up and running again involves:

  • Customers who want to book an event being advised to get a test and download the NHS trace app.
  • The test is registered with the app, which then allows you to continue with your booking.
  • Whenever you get a negative test, the app notifies you that you're Covid-19 free and that becomes a virtual permission slip to attend the event.
  • You show your app and ticket at your event which allows you entry.
  • Local information about infection rates would be taken into consideration."

It is possible to get a test in 75 mins with accuracy of the "normal" tests. There are even quicker ones but their reliability is worse (it's all down to the amount of time your sample is in the magic goo).

Might be possible?

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Hopefully we’ll know a lot more by the time festival season comes around again, this goes against everything we’ve been told so far but if proven to be true then could make all the difference for things like festivals:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html
 

If it is true then the temperature guns might do the job at the gates instead, if anyone flags up with a high temperature they could then be pulled to one side to take a test.

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1 hour ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Hopefully we’ll know a lot more by the time festival season comes around again, this goes against everything we’ve been told so far but if proven to be true then could make all the difference for things like festivals:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html
 

If it is true then the temperature guns might do the job at the gates instead, if anyone flags up with a high temperature they could then be pulled to one side to take a test.

A temp check at the gate only mitigates the virus spreading inside the festival from that person. The chances are, that person will have been in contact with some, possibly many other fesival goers before they get to the temp check point. Eg. they came on a coach or a Glasto packed train and then stood in the various queues with hundreds of others, none of whom have a temperature (yet) and so are let in.  

Not trying to put a downer on it, but festivals arent just about the time on site, they are very small "mass migration" events and so their impact can be much more widespread. 

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Just now, SouthbanKen said:

A temp check at the gate only mitigates the virus spreading inside the festival from that person. The chances are, that person will have been in contact with some, possibly many other fesival goers before they get to the temp check point. Eg. they came on a coach or a Glasto packed train and then stood in the various queues with hundreds of others, none of whom have a temperature (yet) and so are let in.  

Not trying to put a downer on it, but festivals arent just about the time on site, they are very small "mass migration" events and so their impact can be much more widespread. 

Shit i wanna give myself a down vote after writing that. 

Lets just all agree that the virus will do one over Christmas and all those who want tickets get one and then the weather gods deliver for June 2021.

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47 minutes ago, SouthbanKen said:

Lets just all agree that the virus will do one over Christmas and all those who want tickets get one and then the weather gods deliver for June 2021.

Being my positive self I see that a lot of places seem to be getting slightly better with regards to the virus so hopefully it can clear up sooner rather than later, we don't know what will happen next week let alone next year so let's just all hope our wonderful music events can return soon 

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2 hours ago, SouthbanKen said:

A temp check at the gate only mitigates the virus spreading inside the festival from that person. The chances are, that person will have been in contact with some, possibly many other fesival goers before they get to the temp check point. Eg. they came on a coach or a Glasto packed train and then stood in the various queues with hundreds of others, none of whom have a temperature (yet) and so are let in.  

Not trying to put a downer on it, but festivals arent just about the time on site, they are very small "mass migration" events and so their impact can be much more widespread. 

Everything is interlinked though, at the moment you wouldn’t be allowed to get on a packed train or coach to get to Glasto, so if you could this time next year then doing so would clearly not be considered a problem at that point. and that particular person would be able to spread the virus in the same way doing other things. This would be the Festival just doing their bit to help limit the spread within the walls of the festival, which could be the difference between it doing ahead or not.

FWIW my personal opinion is that festivals will be fine next year, if they’re not the entire industry and many others directly connected to it will go down the toilet, and even if the virus carries the same risk next year like most risks in life we as humans will have recalibrated our perception of it by then.

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Coachella officially cancelled in October and possibly again for April 2021. They're considering a reduced capacity festival. 

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8 minutes ago, MetaKate said:

Coachella officially cancelled in October and possibly again for April 2021. They're considering a reduced capacity festival. 

Was obviously not gonna happen in October but big news that it also might not go ahead in April, although seems like staff lay offs might have something to do with that as well as the virus. 

The lengths Frank Ocean will go to to not have to perform live, ey.

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Been having a few thoughts on this recently, just random musings really. I think you can almost class Glastonbury as a cultural event and of course the BBC have a big interest in it, millions must watch their coverage who don’t even consider going to it. With everything a write off this year, it’s probably wishful thinking on my part but when you chuck in the millions of pounds it raises for charity, you’d hope there will be considerable pressure to get it staged next year even if other festivals might still struggle.

This year was fire fighting, but you’d hope next year considerable effort will go Into trying to make things like Glastonbury, Wimbledon etc work. I have no interest in Wimbledon by the way, but you’d have to say that’s quite a famous high profile British event too.

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I'm confident everything will be back to normal next summer, just with added hygiene and awareness. 

The studies in Italy are showing the virus is already much less virulent... to the point were it is becoming much less dangerous and in turn appearing to be disappearing. New cases are showing much less of the virus in the system, which is the viruses way of surviving. If it kills too many of its hosts it kills itself.. so it adjusts and becomes less virulent. That's what the experts in Italy are saying anyway... 

That coupled with any immunity built up, plus any vaccine or treatments, makes me confident next summer will be back to normal. 

Football matches I predict will have crowds back by the end of the year if all goes well... "if". 

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6 minutes ago, Havors said:

I'm confident everything will be back to normal next summer, just with added hygiene and awareness. 

The studies in Italy are showing the virus is already much less virulent... to the point were it is becoming much less dangerous and in turn appearing to be disappearing. New cases are showing much less of the virus in the system, which is the viruses way of surviving. If it kills too many of its hosts it kills itself.. so it adjusts and becomes less virulent. That's what the experts in Italy are saying anyway... 

That coupled with any immunity built up, plus any vaccine or treatments, makes me confident next summer will be back to normal. 

Football matches I predict will have crowds back by the end of the year if all goes well... "if". 

I tend to agree and think things will be fine next year. I’ve also read the stuff about Italy and their Doctors/Scientists seem to be out on their own in saying it. It’s one theory and could of course be true, but there is scant actual widespread evidence that it is. I certainly hope it is though. Conversely I’ve read CV is nowhere near deadly enough to need to have to mutate from its current state.

But I do think everything taken in to account next year will be fine. Let’s face it, as an isolated event Glastonbury could’ve taken place this year and been more than manageable, especially when you factor in the protests all across the country, the net impact of those wouldn’t be much different.

Obviously Glastonbury could’ve never gone ahead this year, because you could never hold it in isolation with everything else in life still cancelled or severely restricted, but hopefully you know what I mean. 

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I think it will likely go ahead next year, but I don't think you can really compare the protests (where people mix in close proximity for a few hours) to a five-day event where people camp close togejter and share toilets, taps and food vendors the whole time.

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7 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I tend to agree and think things will be fine next year. I’ve also read the stuff about Italy and their Doctors/Scientists seem to be out on their own in saying it. It’s one theory and could of course be true, but there is scant actual widespread evidence that it is. I certainly hope it is though. Conversely I’ve read CV is nowhere near deadly enough to need to have to mutate from its current state.

But I do think everything taken in to account next year will be fine. Let’s face it, as an isolated event Glastonbury could’ve taken place this year and been more than manageable, especially when you factor in the protests all across the country, the net impact of those wouldn’t be much different.

Obviously Glastonbury could’ve never gone ahead this year, because you could never hold it in isolation with everything else in life still cancelled or severely restricted, but hopefully you know what I mean. 

Oh yeah always a pinch of salt.... but they did have one of the most severe outbreaks and means to test the virus... other countries with little outbreaks wont have learnt as much I feel. 

We shall see. 

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On 5/28/2020 at 3:43 PM, stuartbert two hats said:

If we do get 30m doses of vaccine in October, with more types of vaccines landing over the next few months then you would think that spring festivals do look pretty likely.

Vaccine by October?

30 Million doses?

You wont be getting a vaccine, if ever, until earliest around  autumn 2021, taking into account both testing and production.

If that is what you are relying on, such events are still pretty shaky for next year as well.

We're only in the early foothills of this, with no guarantee we'll be able to climb the mountain.

Current planning projecting measures until 2022 and even they are open ended.

 

Edited by Copperface

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8 hours ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

I think it will likely go ahead next year, but I don't think you can really compare the protests (where people mix in close proximity for a few hours) to a five-day event where people camp close togejter and share toilets, taps and food vendors the whole time.

Imagine if we had the infrastructure to make it go ahead. 

Specific quarantine camp sites for the workers arriving on site. Stay there until the first test comes back negative and they can move into the site. Daily temperature checking and biweekly testing for them. 

Then everyone with a ticket told to shield for 2 weeks before Glastonbury. You have to get a test with the results linked to your registration online. Maybe by entering a code. 

Your ticket only gets posted to you if you've registered a negative test. 

You get another test the day before you leave with a negative result linked to your ticket

You have to drive to the site with everyone you're camping with. Before you're let in the car park everyone's ticket number checked to confirm each occupant has had 2 negative tests. 

Final temperature check on the way in. 

Then you're free for 5 days! 

There'd be car parking queues back to Bristol....

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44 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Vaccine by October?

30 Million doses?

You wont be getting a vaccine, if ever, until earliest around  autumn 2021, taking into account both testing and production.

If that is what you are relying on, such events are still pretty shaky for next year as well.

We're only in the early foothills of this, with no guarantee we'll be able to climb the mountain.

Current planning projecting measures until 2022 and even they are open ended.

 

I've no idea where you're getting your information from, but as optimistic as my dates were, yours are way out. First hit on Oxford Vaccine:

"Last week, the British pharma inked a $750 million deal with the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance to manufacture and distribute 300 million doses of Oxford's vaccine by the end of 2020, the drugmaker said Thursday."

https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/oxford-biomedica-reaches-manufacturing-equipment-deal-to-ramp-up-production-covid-19

or this story:

AstraZeneca reported it plans to manufacture as much as 30 million doses of the vaccine for the U.K. market by September, with expectations of 100 million doses by the end of the year.

https://www.biospace.com/article/astrazeneca-plans-30-million-university-of-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-doses-by-september/

I know everyone said 18 months at the soonest back in March, but things appear to be moving much more quickly. And whilst Oxford is the front runner, there are several other vaccines in testing already.

We're good for June 2011.

Edited by stuartbert two hats
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Just some of the projections I was getting at work. I am not on the medical side and no expert but we are briefed to base projections on a current 18 month timescale (open ended).

What you've referenced is the manufacturing capability once a suitable candidate is approved.

The Lancet sets it out more clearly.

 Although many infectious disease experts argue that even 18 months for a first vaccine is an incredibly aggressive schedule, a few optimists believe that hundreds of millions of doses of vaccine might be ready for roll-out by the end of 2020.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31252-6/fulltext

Edited by Copperface
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https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/doctor-note-developing-coronavirus-vaccine-200603060930044.html

At least a year away

Although the support that the development of these vaccines is getting from the WHO is unprecedented, it is important to know that most experts believe it will be mid-2021 before a vaccine becomes available, about 12-18 months after the new virus, known officially as SARS-CoV-2, first emerged.

This may seem far away, but it would be much quicker than any vaccine has been developed before. However, there is still no guarantee it will work.

 

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16 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Just some of the projections I was getting at work. I am not on the medical side and no expert but we are briefed to base projections on a current 18 month timescale (open ended).

What you've referenced is the manufacturing capability once a suitable candidate is approved.

The Lancet sets it out more clearly.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31252-6/fulltext

I'm going with:

"a few optimists believe that hundreds of millions of doses of vaccine might be ready for roll-out by the end of 2020"

😁

 

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