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Future of festivals...

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20 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

How many bands do you see over the weekend ? Correct me if I’m wrong here but aren’t chances increased as you are spending time at each band in close proximity ... rather than sat at your tent with the same people around you ... ? Moving about I’m sure would be lower risk but those same people will be touching surfaces wherever they go too ... 

But that just makes it as unlikely that you’ll be next to them as it does likely, of course at a festival you’ll be moving around all over the place seeing different bands, so would the infected people, of 2000 specific people there what are the odds out of 200,000 you end up right next to them and get the virus? Obviously some people will, but most wont.

Someone posted this article a while ago:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/the-cluster-effect-how-social-gatherings-were-rocket-fuel-for-coronavirus

Obviously a smaller scale but at a festival of 350, 7 got the virus. So that’s a 1/50 chance of getting it. The odds are low, your personal risk is still low, but the issue is then the subsequent spread.

Of course a festival will be an increased risk compared to most things, but the probability is still that you won’t get it.
 

 

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21 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

But that just makes it as unlikely that you’ll be next to them as it does likely, of course at a festival you’ll be moving around all over the place seeing different bands, so would the infected people, of 2000 specific people there what are the odds out of 200,000 you end up right next to them and get the virus? Obviously some people will, but most wont.

Someone posted this article a while ago:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/the-cluster-effect-how-social-gatherings-were-rocket-fuel-for-coronavirus

Obviously a smaller scale but at a festival of 350, 7 got the virus. So that’s a 1/50 chance of getting it. The odds are low, your personal risk is still low, but the issue is then the subsequent spread.

Of course a festival will be an increased risk compared to most things, but the probability is still that you won’t get it.
 

 

That was a 4 hour event, not a 5 day festival, and also at a time when the virus wasn't believed to be as prominent in the population as it is for example now.

Using the above and comparing it to Glastonbury is a bit wide off the mark.

Yet 1 out of 50 still managed to become infected at the German event. Scale that up to Glastonbury numbers and that is 4,000 people. Add in the fact that Glastonbury is much longer and the virus is currently much more common in the general population than it was on Feb 15th and you soon realise you are downplaying the risk somewhat.

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19 minutes ago, northernringo said:

That was a 4 hour event, not a 5 day festival, and also at a time when the virus wasn't believed to be as prominent in the population as it is for example now.

Using the above and comparing it to Glastonbury is a bit wide off the mark.

Yet 1 out of 50 still managed to become infected at the German event. Scale that up to Glastonbury numbers and that is 4,000 people. Add in the fact that Glastonbury is much longer and the virus is currently much more common in the general population than it was on Feb 15th and you soon realise you are downplaying the risk somewhat.

I concede all of that, but whatever the risk surely it’s still fairly low, or far less likely you’ll get it than not?

For example, let’s say the 1% who have it infect half of the festival, so you’ve got a 50/50 chance of getting it, so that’s 100,000 people who get it.

Under normal circumstances it’s said that within a month 1 person ultimately gives it to 400 people, so within a month of Glastonbury the 1% who had it there would’ve resulted in 40million people getting it. So one single event not allowing for anything else happening around the country would’ve resulted in infecting most of the population and achieving herd immunity.

So that can’t be right either, so the odds of getting it are still relatively low, you’re still more likely to leave without it than with it... but of course many might deem that a risk not worth taking for them personally.

Also is it more prevalent now then back in February? Surely it’s as low as it will be now?

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton

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On 5/18/2020 at 7:22 AM, Neil said:

Are you really saying that because covid caught you on the hop as it did with everyone else your brain must be a place of only bad decisions...? :rolleyes: 

I said nothing about "bad" businesses. i didn't allude to anything like that at all.

I simply said fewer festivals would (most likely) make those remaining more financially viable via less competition.

I also gave a clear example of how someone might have made a business decision which in normal circumstances wouldn't have been a problem. 

 

Just as logically, a profitable position isn't viable. There is not infinite growth to support forever-profits.

A knife edge is viable. It might not be ideal from the position of greed, that's all.

What you say about bad businesses is true, but that doesn't make all businesses that fail a bad business. One day we'll probably be able to predict the day of a person's death and life insurance and pensions businesses will fail, but it won't be because those businesses have been run badly. ;) 

 

for the bad businesses, yes. But also for some good businesses.

 

the ones who survive will be the ones with the finances to survive.

That only requires access to the necessary finances, which is nothing about good business decisions.

 

"B" is dependant on the financial position of punters and not good business decisions.

Wanted to "like" this post but couldnt see the icon - here is a like. 

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1 minute ago, SouthbanKen said:

Wanted to "like" this post but couldnt see the icon - here is a like. 

You can’t because Neil is admin ... function has been removed ...

  • Like 2

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Ok, there is a better way to try and quantify the risk - The Diamond Princess cruise ship.

Over the course of a month of the 3711 people onboard 700 were infected, so 1/5.

Obviously there are a number of reasons why the chances/risk of getting Covid would’ve been higher on the cruise than at Glastonbury.

- It was a month not 5 days

- Older demographic more susceptible to being infected

- More indoor spaces, closed confined spaces rather than being mostly outdoors

- More physical surfaces, door handles, hand rails, tables chairs etc etc

So you could safely say the risk is somewhat lower than 1/5 and somewhat higher than 1/50. I’d hazard a guess that it would be a lot closer to the 1/50 than 1/5, simply because a month is a long time for the virus to be spreading around compared to 5 days.

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton

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Some of this discussion on risk is focusing a bit too much on current levels, obviously at current levels of infection festivals can't go ahead. 

I think others are right that when festivals go ahead it'll be a binary on/off as effective social distancing is impossible. 

It's a question of what level of community spread would be acceptable, if any, to allow it to go ahead. 

If there were say hundreds of new cases per day and people were pre warned that infection control is difficult would it be allowed?

I think someone's said previously that there already are relatively regular outbreaks of illness in wateraid camps, and thats a risk they just manage.

 

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3 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

Some of this discussion on risk is focusing a bit too much on current levels, obviously at current levels of infection festivals can't go ahead. 

I think others are right that when festivals go ahead it'll be a binary on/off as effective social distancing is impossible. 

It's a question of what level of community spread would be acceptable, if any, to allow it to go ahead. 

If there were say hundreds of new cases per day and people were pre warned that infection control is difficult would it be allowed?

I think someone's said previously that there already are relatively regular outbreaks of illness in wateraid camps, and thats a risk they just manage.

 

But are infections high or low at the moment? During the lockdown the ONS said just 0.27% were infected. In theory we’re still in lockdown with some easing, but most people’s fears are that continual easing will send cases up rather than down. If we continue to ease lockdown but case numbers get lower than they are now, then surely it’s problem solved, disaster over and nothing to worry about anyway? 

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25 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

But are infections high or low at the moment? During the lockdown the ONS said just 0.27% were infected. In theory we’re still in lockdown with some easing, but most people’s fears are that continual easing will send cases up rather than down. If we continue to ease lockdown but case numbers get lower than they are now, then surely it’s problem solved, disaster over and nothing to worry about anyway? 

This is how I see it, from my probably uninformed perspective. 

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10 hours ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Ok, there is a better way to try and quantify the risk - The Diamond Princess cruise ship.

Over the course of a month of the 3711 people onboard 700 were infected, so 1/5.

Obviously there are a number of reasons why the chances/risk of getting Covid would’ve been higher on the cruise than at Glastonbury.

- It was a month not 5 days

- Older demographic more susceptible to being infected

- More indoor spaces, closed confined spaces rather than being mostly outdoors

- More physical surfaces, door handles, hand rails, tables chairs etc etc

So you could safely say the risk is somewhat lower than 1/5 and somewhat higher than 1/50. I’d hazard a guess that it would be a lot closer to the 1/50 than 1/5, simply because a month is a long time for the virus to be spreading around compared to 5 days.

Also most meals on that ship were buffet service, which is just asking for trouble.

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11 hours ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

But are infections high or low at the moment? During the lockdown the ONS said just 0.27% were infected. In theory we’re still in lockdown with some easing, but most people’s fears are that continual easing will send cases up rather than down. If we continue to ease lockdown but case numbers get lower than they are now, then surely it’s problem solved, disaster over and nothing to worry about anyway? 

I think that number was towards the tail end of April, it was much higher at the peak. Estimates today so a total of 17% in London and 5% outside have had it. So that's over a roughly 12-16 week range

If case numbers do trend down then it's full steam ahead and I'm going to live in a field next year!

 

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I don’t know if this is even possible or just in the realms of science fiction, but wouldn’t the silver bullet for things like music festivals be an instant, cheap test?

Sure the queues would be horrific, but no different to checking every bag.

To avoid your own personal disappointment it would be good if you could also obtain a test a few days before you go, just to minimise the chances of rocking up and being turned away.

I’d imagine most of us would be self isolating in an underground bunker for at least 7 days before!

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton

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whats the pyramid field capacity ? how many cars did they get in that field back in the day ? :) 

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They’ve just spoken to Melvin Benn (head of Festival Republic) on BBC News and he seems to think most outdoor gigs will be okay to go from next spring - with that includes mind coukd it be possible to do any kind of ‘social bubble’ with the people who you are attending the festival with or is that over ambitious?

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On 5/21/2020 at 10:32 AM, funkychick2007 said:

I haven’t looked to much at this thread! Mainly I wanted to be in denial as I had a three year plan for a new career project  based around festivals and entertainment venues and child adult exploitation. Anyone wants to be bored by my ideas please message me it’s more positive that it sounds! 
what it made me realise that as well as the infection factor there are so many other things tht would be effected by not having festivals financially and mentally and physically for so many people! 
 

Is it an on-site creche? That is a service I would 100% use. 

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22 minutes ago, blutarsky said:

Is it an on-site creche? That is a service I would 100% use. 

Its a good thought!!! But would be absolute nightmare to organise! I think looking at the festival from a family perspective is a whole different experience or send the kids on their own holiday with extended family or friends!!! 
My project is more to do with some of the darker sides of festivals and entertainment venues and events and training the staff and making the public aware and what to do if the see it happen! Don’t wont to write to much on here as will will probably bore a lot of people! Festivals do a really good job of keeping people and children safe, this is a concern which is relatively new in society as well! 

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3 hours ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I don’t know if this is even possible or just in the realms of science fiction, but wouldn’t the silver bullet for things like music festivals be an instant, cheap test?

Sure the queues would be horrific, but no different to checking every bag.

To avoid your own personal disappointment it would be good if you could also obtain a test a few days before you go, just to minimise the chances of rocking up and being turned away.

I’d imagine most of us would be self isolating in an underground bunker for at least 7 days before!

An instant test where you did it at home, Input the result on the app and showed it at the gate alongside your ticket to get in. 

If you had antibodies you could also be allowed in. 

Think people would go one of 2 ways. Either self isolate for a month. Or go out 2 months before and try to get it!

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3 hours ago, Chapple12345 said:

They’ve just spoken to Melvin Benn (head of Festival Republic) on BBC News and he seems to think most outdoor gigs will be okay to go from next spring

I'm not accusing Melvin of telling porkies, but then again he's not going to say anything different to this. It's much like the Eavis "best festival ever".

And I don't really think it's anything more than a the sort of hopeful guess any of us could make, because there's no perfect info so everyone is pissing in the wind.

I'd like to think Melvin is right, but it's ultimately just his personal (and perhaps overly-hopeful) guess.

Edited by Neil

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4 hours ago, Chapple12345 said:

They’ve just spoken to Melvin Benn (head of Festival Republic) on BBC News and he seems to think most outdoor gigs will be okay to go from next spring - with that includes mind coukd it be possible to do any kind of ‘social bubble’ with the people who you are attending the festival with or is that over ambitious?

I presume we'll get to know before that, if there's still a ban on football and major sports crowds going into 2021 we know we're in trouble.

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EXIT festival in Serbia has just been given the green light to go ahead in August by the government. Last years attendance was approx 200,000.  😬

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2 minutes ago, TorontoScot said:

EXIT festival in Serbia has just been given the green light to go ahead in August by the government. Last years attendance was approx 200,000.  😬

They be confirmed that theyll limit attendance loads.

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7 minutes ago, zahidf said:

They be confirmed that theyll limit attendance loads.

and perhaps only have locals, but it’s still positive news in regards live events/etc. Only hope if it does happen, theres not some biblical outbreak of covid afterwards

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2 hours ago, Leyrulion said:

An instant test where you did it at home, Input the result on the app and showed it at the gate alongside your ticket to get in. 

If you had antibodies you could also be allowed in. 

Think people would go one of 2 ways. Either self isolate for a month. Or go out 2 months before and try to get it!

That could work...or if you haven't had the virus but have a ticket, sign a waiver for any liability on the part of the festival if you do go and get sick. That might also make the festival more insurable too.

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The issue is that we simply don't know what will happen over the relatively short term. It's likely that most of us will get exposed at some point and generate some form of immunity. How long that will last is not clear. 

I've no doubts that festivals will reopen sometime but when - who knows. We'll get more info as lockdowns reopen and subsequent patterns of infection. London will be a good test. It'll give us an idea of how suppressed the virus will be with a significant minority  having been infected.  

I'll have my fingers tightly crossed for next year! Need tickets first though!

Edited by semmtexx

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Rapid test would help but there are always false positives and negatives! Doubt it's practical on the door. Maybe if antibody testing is rolled out and it's shown that you have immunity - that could work. 

Edited by semmtexx

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