Future of festivals...

[Crazyfool01]

7 minutes ago, Memory Man said:

I see what you’re saying, it makes total sense.

my question then is where is melvin getting this imaginary 4 million tests a day / everyone testing themselves at home from? Is he making it up? I assume he has had a steer on what the future looks like from someone in a position of power.

the theory behind it is exactly the same as in pro sport just massively grossed up in size. 

i could see a private company who could issue loads of tests being in the market to do something like this if it would get major events on next summer and if it becomes obvious theres going to be no vaccine (every major organiser would want to do business with them) but i guess we’re a while away yet

So @Toilet Duck what chances of these Huge testing numbers ? Because the government don’t seem to be able to do it ? 

[Toilet Duck]

22 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

So @Toilet Duck what chances of these Huge testing numbers ? Because the government don’t seem to be able to do it ? 

So, manufacturing capacity is still an issue, but if there’s a market, expect it to ramp up significantly! Abbott can make 50m a month at the moment, but it’s only just been approved and only starting to be rolled out for private use (won’t be available here for a few months, Trump bought the first 3 months supply!)..they’ve said they could increase that if needed though, so we might get it quicker!)...Roche have manufacturing capacity for about 80m a month at the mo (starts shipping in Europe next week), however, again, if there was a massive market (ie, you need one to do loads of things), then expect manufacturing capacity to increase. That’s two of a couple of dozen similar rapid tests that I know of, if the others are approved, then between them, the could make quite a few (100s of millions per month). They’d also make a lot of profit! Some tests will be used by health authorities for mass testing (the Roche one is perfect for this as you don’t do it yourself, but you get the results while you wait), some will be used for home testing (like the Abbott one) with self-certification to attend events, get on a plane, maybe even work in a high risk environment. The more that gain approval, the easier this gets. Vaccine or no vaccine, testing is the key to opening up anything more than we have done. 

[Memory Man]

Great insight as ever Mr Duck, they should have had you in the room today. Makes me feel a bit more optimistic, i think this could be the direction of travel if the vaccine is looking like no go or not ready till late 2021 or 2022 (If at all)

[zahidf]

Ian brown has gone funny again

 

[Toilet Duck]

8 minutes ago, Memory Man said:

Great insight as ever Mr Duck, they should have had you in the room today. Makes me feel a bit more optimistic, i think this could be the direction of travel if the vaccine is looking like no go or not ready till late 2021 or 2022 (If at all)

No worries! 

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

No worries! 

yep and thanks from me TD .... loads of info as ever  

[funkychick2007]

https://www.wellsfestivalofliterature.org.uk/21-october-2020#michael-eavis
this maybe of interest to people! At the moment a live event but some parts of the programme are streamed! 

[Toilet Duck]

27 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

yep and thanks from me TD .... loads of info as ever  

My pleasure! Will look into where some of the others are along the development pipeline. Was looking in detail at them a while back as we planned our in-house testing, but have only been keeping track of some of them!

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, Toilet Duck said:

My pleasure! Will look into where some of the others are along the development pipeline. Was looking in detail at them a while back as we planned our in-house testing, but have only been keeping track of some of them!

I assume the talks of allowing testing to reopen venues without social distancing must be based on these fastrack tests working...

[Toilet Duck]

7 minutes ago, zahidf said:

I assume the talks of allowing testing to reopen venues without social distancing must be based on these fastrack tests working...

Yeah, they do work. They aren’t as accurate as the PCR, but for mass testing, they are probably more useful (and will miss a lot fewer people than not testing at all!)...

[zahidf]

20 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Yeah, they do work. They aren’t as accurate as the PCR, but for mass testing, they are probably more useful (and will miss a lot fewer people than not testing at all!)...

Thats interesting , because the general reaction to the mass testing idea is that its not possible. Is it just the number of tests not being available?

[Toilet Duck]

21 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Thats interesting , because the general reaction to the mass testing idea is that its not possible. Is it just the number of tests not being available?

I’d expect the rapid tests like the Roche ones to replace the current tests at testing sites, the PCR test we have at the moment will still be used for confirmation in some cases (and has other uses), and the home testing/pharmacy testing types to be used for safe entry to non-socially distant environments (I can’t imagine flying without it soon). So, while a lot of tests will be needed, we’re not talking about testing the entire population every day. Once we can vaccinate vulnerable populations, we can think about getting rid of testing, other than for diagnostic purposes in hospital in order to manage patients correctly.  But it’ll still take some time to vaccinate all those who need it, and indeed may require repeated vaccination to protect them...so if we want to get back to a more normal way of doing things, this is how we do it basically. 

[zahidf]

Just now, Toilet Duck said:

I’d expect the rapid tests like the Roche ones to replace the current tests at testing sites, the PCR test we have at the moment will still be used for confirmation in some cases (and has other uses), and the home testing/pharmacy testing types to be used for safe entry to non-socially distant environments (I can’t imagine flying without it soon). So, while a lot of tests will be needed, we’re not talking about testing the entire population every day. Once we can vaccinate vulnerable populations, we can think about getting rid of testing, other than for diagnostic purposes in hospital in order to manage patients correctly.  But it’ll still take some time to vaccinate all those who need it, and indeed may require repeated vaccination to protect them...so if we want to get back to a more normal way of doing things, this is how we do it basically. 

Ah cool. Have they passed the UK regulatory systems? Just wondered why they haven't been rolled out yet

[Toilet Duck]

17 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Ah cool. Have they passed the UK regulatory systems? Just wondered why they haven't been rolled out yet

The Roche one is approved by the EMA, starts shipping next week I believe. The Abbott one has FDA approval, EMA approval to follow, but all of the current manufacturing capacity has been bought by the US anyway, so there’s still time to approve over here (what happens in the UK on Jan 1st is anyone’s guess, I’d expect EMA approval will be accepted until that unholy mess is untangled!)...the Abbott one is pretty cool actually, looks like a pregnancy test, but has gold nanoparticles in it coated with anti-CoV antibodies. There’s saliva tests and paper tests (dipstick type) on the way too, just going through the final stages of approval, so there would be a range available. 

Edited September 8, 2020 by Toilet Duck
Typos!

[zahidf]

Cool thanks!

[eFestivals]

19 hours ago, incident said:

Download and IOW are both majors by most standards, and fall ahead of Glastonbury - they've changed the dates for each of them next year, so Download is 3 weeks before and IOW 1 week before.

Both are Festival Republic events as well so Melvin is involved with them.

IoW is Live Nation rather than Festival Republic, and I don't think Melvin is involved.

[eFestivals]

18 hours ago, Waterdeep said:

Benn seems to be adamant, for now anyway, that his festivals will be a no go if they need social distancing. He said there will be two plans - either a vaccine or mass testing. The mass testing would either be through an app with QR code or hundreds of testing centres set up across the UK. I can't remember his wording exactly but he basically said people go to festivals for the abandon and escape, and he doesn't want any restrictions that would inhibit any of that once inside the gates.

He said he spoke to an Oxford professor who reckons we'll all be testing ourselves twice a week at home soon!

the problem with self-testing is that anyone could upload a fake result, so what a person shows at a festival gate could be incorrect.

But self-testing is the only way Benn's plan could work, cos the govt is never going to up-scale the current tests by 50 times.

[hfuhruhurr]

17 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

the problem with self-testing is that anyone could upload a fake result, so what a person shows at a festival gate could be incorrect.

yep - this is the problem. You can only go if you test negative. Roll out granny who you've kept in an attic for the past year, quick swab, all done.

We'll have a festival full of Norman Bates

[eFestivals]

21 minutes ago, hfuhruhurr said:

yep - this is the problem. You can only go if you test negative. Roll out granny who you've kept in an attic for the past year, quick swab, all done.

We'll have a festival full of Norman Bates

 

In reality you wouldn't even need granny. You wouldn't even need to do the test.

You'd only need to order a test, which would come with the "upload your result to here" instructions.

[Homer]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-54069456

[Memory Man]

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

 

In reality you wouldn't even need granny. You wouldn't even need to do the test.

You'd only need to order a test, which would come with the "upload your result to here" instructions.

I wonder if they could implement some kind of verification code or something like that linked from the test to an app.... it sounds difficult but surely possible if there was the will.

eg when a website sends you a one time use sms code. 

All this sounds potentially expensive if possible. So may still be no go.

[SwedgeAntilles]

56 minutes ago, Homer said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-54069456

By 2022 it'll be renamed The Hunger Games

[Hugh Jass]

58 minutes ago, Homer said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-54069456

They could heal the UK by dropping a nuke on the site.

[DareToDibble]

4 hours ago, Homer said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-54069456

Sounds absolutely horrific. 

[stuie]

7 minutes ago, DareToDibble said:

Sounds absolutely horrific. 

Absolutely does. Fuck that. 

It will be the worst festival crowd in the history of festival crowds. 

Anyone that still thinks this is something to celebrate needs to give their head a wobble.