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Future of festivals...


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40 minutes ago, kingbadger said:

Reckon the news that the at risk population will hopefully all be vaccinated by springtime will have boosted everyone's confidence. This government are going to want to open up everything as quickly as possible. Once they've vaccinated those most at risk of hospitalisation/death then I imagine it'll turn into a free for all, in terms of outside activities at least. They'll leave the decision to you as to whether you want to put yourself at risk, knowing you at least can't pass it on to someone clinically vulnerable. 

And that last point is as yet unknown, and will not be known for many months - whether the individual vaccine only suppresses the symptoms so as to reduce illness in the individual, or whether it also suppress infectivity in asymptomatic people. They will not be getting the initial groups vaccinated in that timescale.

Until that is verified, and it is key, they cannot simply open everything up.

Two senior docs I was speaking to last night both convinced that it will take until mid autumn before sufficient people vaccinated (bearing in mind we currently have no start date) before mass events can take place.

Start date is TBC depending on when the vaccine is reg approved but v. soon according to one but could not say more.

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54 minutes ago, kingbadger said:

Reckon the news that the at risk population will hopefully all be vaccinated by springtime will have boosted everyone's confidence. This government are going to want to open up everything as quickly as possible. Once they've vaccinated those most at risk of hospitalisation/death then I imagine it'll turn into a free for all, in terms of outside activities at least. They'll leave the decision to you as to whether you want to put yourself at risk, knowing you at least can't pass it on to someone clinically vulnerable. 

It will go against medical advice but i cant see Goverments keeping social distancing once the vulnerable are protected. 

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1 minute ago, Copperface said:

Start date is TBC depending on when the vaccine is reg approved but v. soon according to one but could not say more.

beginning of Dec is what the media are suggesting isn't it ? I guess that will depend very much on the vaccine type / storage and which one has been chosen for the different groups ... 

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3 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

beginning of Dec is what the media are suggesting isn't it ? I guess that will depend very much on the vaccine type / storage and which one has been chosen for the different groups ... 

Yes, so much is as yet unknown. There is no date yet, just a bunch of hopeful projections. No-one even knows the Pfizer vax even works correctly yet. Storage and transport logistics will dictate a lot, but the sheer number of vaccinations to be organised, delivered and recorded appropriately, even just in the first wave, is vast. The Oxford vax might ease things as it does not require the same specialist frozen storage. Springtime is not likely as I said before as so much is up in the air but the next real challenge is delivering any vaccine that works, and that will take us way past spring time.

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3 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Yes, so much is as yet unknown. There is no date yet, just a bunch of hopeful projections. No-one even knows the Pfizer vax even works correctly yet. Storage and transport logistics will dictate a lot, but the sheer number of vaccinations to be organised, delivered and recorded appropriately, even just in the first wave, is vast. The Oxford vax might ease things as it does not require the same specialist frozen storage. Springtime is not likely as I said before as so much is up in the air but the next real challenge is delivering any vaccine that works, and that will take us way past spring time.

im optimistic based on the way the flu jab rolls out  over the space of a couple of months .... of course this one is going to be  logistically challenging and based  on a couple of doses even more so .... numbers to start are surely similar to that grouping .... so thats where we start 

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1 hour ago, Copperface said:

And that last point is as yet unknown, and will not be known for many months - whether the individual vaccine only suppresses the symptoms so as to reduce illness in the individual, or whether it also suppress infectivity in asymptomatic people. They will not be getting the initial groups vaccinated in that timescale.

Until that is verified, and it is key, they cannot simply open everything up.

Well this is my point - suppression of the disease passing on to the vulnerable will be a moot point if the vaccine they've been given is as good, or even as close to as good as the Pfizer one is meant to be. It appears to provide more than sufficient protection to the disease itself, whether the vulnerable then pass the disease on isn't necessarily of concern if the wider public which hasn't been vaccinated is not really at risk of serious illness/disease. 

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On 11/13/2020 at 9:24 AM, hfuhruhurr said:

The rapido test currently requires you to be teeming with virus to score a positive result within 15 minutes. So the timing for this test would crucial - you can't get people to the venue, get a positive result and realise that Mr Viral Load has just super-spread to his section of the queue.

The 90 min PCR test and can sort batches of 10 in one "bubble", then test individuals if the bubble result is positive. But the issue there is 90 mins is too long for any kind of mass event and the number of machines needed to process the batches is way too many.

Methinks they'll solve this early in the new year - the pressure will come from footie and other sports before festivals - and along with a vaccine, my feeling is that it's a go for next year.

So, now I need a ticket.

Well depends how you look at it. PCR tests give positive results for people who are no longer infectious depending on the threshold the lab is using as its testing for RNA. With the rapid test if you test positive you can be quite sure you are infectious... as its looking for active proteins. Its about testing quick and catching the virus when infectious so those people can be isolated...

I would put it a large amount of postive PCR cases were no longer infectious and effectively isolated for no reason. Hence why we see a gap between public positive testing cases and hospital admissions. 

As I understand it the positive tests from the new rapid test get double tested to be sure. 

The more these rapid tests are used over and over in theory we should be able to isolate outbreaks very easily. Coupled with a vaccine... we could well be back to normal (ish) by easter I hope. 

 

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On 11/13/2020 at 4:04 PM, Copperface said:

And that last point is as yet unknown, and will not be known for many months - whether the individual vaccine only suppresses the symptoms so as to reduce illness in the individual, or whether it also suppress infectivity in asymptomatic people. They will not be getting the initial groups vaccinated in that timescale.

Until that is verified, and it is key, they cannot simply open everything up.

Two senior docs I was speaking to last night both convinced that it will take until mid autumn before sufficient people vaccinated (bearing in mind we currently have no start date) before mass events can take place.

Start date is TBC depending on when the vaccine is reg approved but v. soon according to one but could not say more.

I've been adamant that the only gigs we're getting next summer will be socially distanced ones (like the Virgin Money thing in Newcastle), but in much greater quantities than this year. If that worked in 2020 there is no reason with a decent amount of vaccine rollout that it can't be widened in 2021. 

I know its not "the same" or "normal". But its better than the "nothing" we'll get otherwise...

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I just can't foresee another summer without proper mass events - including sports - if there's a vaccine being rolled out, testing has been improved, and rapid testing is accessible. It's just.. absolutely crippling to the economy to lose out on a second summer of those. I can't even fathom how many businesses and economic ecosystems would go under.

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12 minutes ago, jannybruck said:

I just can't foresee another summer without proper mass events - including sports - if there's a vaccine being rolled out, testing has been improved, and rapid testing is accessible. It's just.. absolutely crippling to the economy to lose out on a second summer of those. I can't even fathom how many businesses and economic ecosystems would go under.

Especially during a European Championships and Olympics summer?

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Yeah I can't see how events won't be going ahead if we're rolling out a virus and all at risk groups have been vaccinated.  Especially the outdoor events. 

Not sure the demand is there for the socially distanced more expensive gigs and if they even make enough money to make it a viable option for organisations.

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Interesting info on Ticket master plans for 2021 NA events:

https://www.billboard.com/articles/business/touring/9481166/ticketmaster-vaccine-check-concerts-plan

I can think of many reasons that this type of system wouldn't work but at least they are sorting through options.

Crossing my fingers for Vaccinations being available in the late spring.

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18 hours ago, Havors said:

Well depends how you look at it. PCR tests give positive results for people who are no longer infectious depending on the threshold the lab is using as its testing for RNA. With the rapid test if you test positive you can be quite sure you are infectious... as its looking for active proteins. Its about testing quick and catching the virus when infectious so those people can be isolated...

I would put it a large amount of postive PCR cases were no longer infectious and effectively isolated for no reason. Hence why we see a gap between public positive testing cases and hospital admissions. 

As I understand it the positive tests from the new rapid test get double tested to be sure. 

The more these rapid tests are used over and over in theory we should be able to isolate outbreaks very easily. Coupled with a vaccine... we could well be back to normal (ish) by easter I hope. 

 

Experts appear to increasing disagree with government on the reliability & effectiveness of rapid testing. Some suggest it only picks up 57% of cases. Their wider use in Liverpool etc will provide a proper assessment of their value.

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13 minutes ago, Waterdeep said:

So spaced out tents, testing before entry and have to preorder drinks?

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"Meanwhile, all attendees will be allocated an “RFID wristband” which will eliminate the need for queuing and allow for cashless payments at drink and confectionery stands"

I'd be quite happy for that to stay the norm going forward. Obviously you'd need some kind of back up in place in case the system went down though

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35 minutes ago, found home in 2009 said:

"Meanwhile, all attendees will be allocated an “RFID wristband” which will eliminate the need for queuing and allow for cashless payments at drink and confectionery stands"

I'd be quite happy for that to stay the norm going forward. Obviously you'd need some kind of back up in place in case the system went down though

At certain festivals I've been to bar queuing has eaten into a huge amount of time I could've spent watching music, so I'm happy if this becomes a thing. I imagine it'll actually increase the amount of sales they'll make, too.

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1 hour ago, found home in 2009 said:

"Meanwhile, all attendees will be allocated an “RFID wristband” which will eliminate the need for queuing and allow for cashless payments at drink and confectionery stands"

I'd be quite happy for that to stay the norm going forward. Obviously you'd need some kind of back up in place in case the system went down though

You can already have cashless payments by just asking people to use Contactless using the cards and devices that nearly everyone already has in their pockets.

The RFID wristband+wallet concept has been around for a ages now and is absolutely nothing to do with H+S. It's all about letting the festival or their partner control peoples wallets and the transactions between customers and stallholders.

I'm yet to see an implementation of this that actually improved anything. Download was the most notable festival to try it a few years ago and abandoned it after a litany of complaints. And at least a couple of festival owners ran off with the money leaving their stall holders out of pocket.

Edited by incident
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3 hours ago, found home in 2009 said:

"Meanwhile, all attendees will be allocated an “RFID wristband” which will eliminate the need for queuing and allow for cashless payments at drink and confectionery stands"

I'd be quite happy for that to stay the norm going forward. Obviously you'd need some kind of back up in place in case the system went down though

I don't get how this 'eliminates the need for queuing'.....?

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