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Future of festivals...


Sawdusty surfer
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23 minutes ago, Lycra said:

Unfortunately it doesn't work like that. Firstly a test is only as good as the sample provided, which means peeps can have covid but it's missed. Secondly, the test is only relevant to that point in time viz: peeps can be covid negative at 1pm but covid positive at 5pm. That's why the NHS use repeat testing.

Agreed it's never going to be 100% accuracy.....maybe only 75% at best so there will always be a risk.  I thought that it was known there is a small window between testing positive and becoming infectious - my point being that if you make sure as many people as possible are negative in the 2 days before the festival then very few will be infectious before going home if you have a 3 day festival.

It's all academic though as the arrival/departure logistics would be a nightmare as others have said.

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6 minutes ago, parsonjack said:

Agreed it's never going to be 100% accuracy.....maybe only 75% at best so there will always be a risk.  I thought that it was known there is a small window between testing positive and becoming infectious - my point being that if you make sure as many people as possible are negative in the 2 days before the festival then very few will be infectious before going home if you have a 3 day festival.

It's all academic though as the arrival/departure logistics would be a nightmare as others have said.

I assume the thinking will be there will be some form of pregnancy test style thing for around £20.00 available. You take the test, if you test negative you upload it on your phone e.t.c. If not, theyll have a gate where you can take it there and then separate to the main entrances. ( where you have to pay a bit more, say £30.00)

 

So Gate A for example will be Gate for taking the test before you get in, Gates B-E the entrances where you show the uploaded negative test to get in.

After the festival, you isolate for 7-14 days unless you take and get another negative test. 

I assume that will be how they do air travel next summer for tourism season. Its not easy for sure but if the thinking is that some positive people MAY slip through but with a vaccine/better treatment/better track and trace system, its not the end of the world

 

Its how they are planning to let tourists into Japan for the Olympics for example...

Edited by zahidf
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3 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Could we get some kind of randomly allocated arrival times allotted to ticket groups to reduce the mass queueing ? And cut risk ... it would be a pain ... but safer .. 

There are many things that can be done but each presents a barrier which will turn some people away. You only have to look at the lack of people in pubs/restaurants to see this in action.

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20 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Could we get some kind of randomly allocated arrival times allotted to ticket groups to reduce the mass queueing ? And cut risk ... it would be a pain ... but safer .. 

A bit pointless given the sardine like experience inside the fence!

As for testing... we've got three adult tickets in our household, if one of us tests positive or has symptoms does that mean we've all got to isolate?

Bugger that.

All or nothing!

 

 

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1 minute ago, Barney McGrew said:

A bit pointless given the sardine like experience inside the fence!

As for testing... we've got three adult tickets in our household, if one of us tests positive or has symptoms does that mean we've all got to isolate?

Bugger that.

All or nothing!

 

 

Sorry I meant in conjunction with testing at the gate ... I’d personally ruled out testing because of the practicality’s but was trying to think of ways for it to work ... based on michaels comments ... which of course could be Michael just being Michael 

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On quarantine I wonder if this could be done BEFORE the festival to reduce the risk coming in?

Even though the isolation period is 2 weeks we know for most it's actually about 5 days from infection to testing positive. 

So could the advice be 

1) limit contact in the 2 weeks before.

2) Isolate from the Friday evening before until departure on Wednesday

3) Send off a test on Friday and then the Tuesday/Wednesday. 

That would catch most cases and the numbers beginning symptomatic during the festival would be so much lower. 

A 2 day quarantine before the festival is also easier for most rather then after.

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4 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

On quarantine I wonder if this could be done BEFORE the festival to reduce the risk coming in?

Even though the isolation period is 2 weeks we know for most it's actually about 5 days from infection to testing positive. 

So could the advice be 

1) limit contact in the 2 weeks before.

2) Isolate from the Friday evening before until departure on Wednesday

3) Send off a test on Friday and then the Tuesday/Wednesday. 

That would catch most cases and the numbers beginning symptomatic during the festival would be so much lower. 

A 2 day quarantine before the festival is also easier for most rather then after.

Problem with this is for people coming via coach and train. In cities at least I'd imagine that a lot of people use public transport or cabs to get to the coach station or train station (we do anyway), so won't be able to properly isolate from home to the coach or train. I'm not sure what the numbers coming on public transport are, would be interesting to know.

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3 minutes ago, hfuhruhurr said:

Can't be a home test - since some people would fake it. At the gate would be chaos - someone tests positive, then everyone around them has to wear a special "keep away from me" hat. Which, would be good at the bars...

I don't think fakes would be such a huge issue. 

The reason being you're only going to do that if you know/think you know you have it (and have no sense of morals). 

The isolation period from presenting symptoms is 10 days. You're going to be doing a postal test 5-6 days before the festival and will have probably already been symptomatic for 2-3 days to "know" you have it. By the time the festival comes round most of the fake testers will have ended their 10 days quarantine requirement anyway and not be passing it on. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Maybe off topic because I’m talking about festivals in general rather than Glastonbury but I find myself wondering if mass testing is more appropriate for one day events rather than longer camping festivals.

 

The issue with testing is that it doesn’t seem to pick up those who are incubating the virus. Suppose Alice is c-19 positive and meets Bob for dinner, Bob wouldn’t immediately show up as positive on a test. With longer festivals you then run the risk of letting people in who are incubating and then they become infectious during the event and it goes on to become a superspreading event.

 

For a one day thing, you don’t really care if someone is incubating the virus, because they’re only in there for that one day. There’s obviously a tiny chance someone who was incubating at 9am becomes infectious by 3pm, but with this stuff you’re never going to fully eliminate the risk, it’s just all about reducing it to a much more acceptable level. 
 

Perhaps festivals themselves could adapt to this by either shortening to a single day, or selling only day tickets rather than weekend packages. But I feel a lot more confident about the possibility of attending something like Community festival or All Points East for a day next summer than I do about the possibility of a weekend camping at Kendal Calling or Truck. 

This is where my thinking is going - even without testing an outdoor event isn't a guaranteed super spreader event anyway, so a few getting through on false negatives etc are probably not going to be a problem. 

But I guess the question then is how people get there - its additional public transport journeys that can spread it to the general public. Such a tough one. 

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42 minutes ago, brettredmayne said:

Imagine getting to the gates and then testing positive, how do you get home? If you came by bus would the whole bus have to then isolate and miss out? Would you be able to get a refund on the ticket?

A lot of questions and would put a lot of people off 

That's why you'd have to have testing in advance before departure. Either postal kits or at designated places (or both?)

I can only see testing on the gate as maybe in addition to this.

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2 hours ago, Leyrulion said:

On quarantine I wonder if this could be done BEFORE the festival to reduce the risk coming in?

Even though the isolation period is 2 weeks we know for most it's actually about 5 days from infection to testing positive. 

So could the advice be 

1) limit contact in the 2 weeks before.

2) Isolate from the Friday evening before until departure on Wednesday

3) Send off a test on Friday and then the Tuesday/Wednesday. 

That would catch most cases and the numbers beginning symptomatic during the festival would be so much lower. 

A 2 day quarantine before the festival is also easier for most rather then after.

Zero chance of it happening as people wouldn't comply. Dont forget anything they adopted has to be in compliance with the recently published Covid Compliance Guidance.

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20 minutes ago, Lycra said:

Zero chance of it happening as people wouldn't comply. Dont forget anything they adopted has to be in compliance with the recently published Covid Compliance Guidance.

This is maddening logic because surely there's a risk people might not comply with anything. Yet they do. 

Even in a normal year most people comply with the requirements about glass, gazebos etc. There's a small few that don't or won't but that doesn't mean you just scrap the entire requirement.

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2 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

This is maddening logic because surely there's a risk people might not comply with anything. Yet they do. 

Even in a normal year most people comply with the requirements about glass, gazebos etc. There's a small few that don't or won't but that doesn't mean you just scrap the entire requirement.

It's been shown people are complying with quarantine and that non-compliance rises the younger people are. Just think of the young pub goers partying in the streets at 10pm. 

Any steps GFL take minimise covid risk must be in line with the Purple Handbook giving guidance for festivals and meet the rules of the day and on each day of the festival if they change. Guidance specifically talks about demonstrating agility to meet any changes in covid rules. More specifically the festival organiser must be in control of Covid mitigation  measures. My reading is they can't deligate responsibility to fans who may or may not self isolate or may produce bogus test results.

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15 minutes ago, Lycra said:

deligate responsibility to fans

Don't they in part do these every year though? Yes there are security checks for prohibited items to meet licence requirements but we all know that most of the responsibility is on the individual not to bring them. 

I wonder how much covid restrictions will require 100% guaranteed, can't be beaten, enforcement. Will they accept something closer to the current situation where they know everyone won't get searched but it's enough to meet the requirement in the licence.

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LEts see how this goes

 

And Hancock also told MPs that lateral flow tests - Covid tests that can deliver results within minutes - started to be rolled out yesterday to schools and universities. Explaining what they could do, he said:

If we can deliver a mass testing solution so that pupils in a bubble don’t have to isolate for a fortnight when one in a bubble tests positive, we will not only control the spread of the virus, we will protect education better, and help schools and teachers and parents to live their lives much closer to normal.

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8 minutes ago, zahidf said:

LEts see how this goes

 

And Hancock also told MPs that lateral flow tests - Covid tests that can deliver results within minutes - started to be rolled out yesterday to schools and universities. Explaining what they could do, he said:

If we can deliver a mass testing solution so that pupils in a bubble don’t have to isolate for a fortnight when one in a bubble tests positive, we will not only control the spread of the virus, we will protect education better, and help schools and teachers and parents to live their lives much closer to normal.

This is the reshaped operation moonshot. They've given up on the general mass population trial.

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1 hour ago, Leyrulion said:

Don't they in part do these every year though? Yes there are security checks for prohibited items to meet licence requirements.

You've answered your own question. Fans are told the rules and there are security checks to demonstrate compliance. How do you check a fan is isolating bar tagging them in their home and/or sending security round. 

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3 hours ago, zahidf said:

LEts see how this goes

 

And Hancock also told MPs that lateral flow tests - Covid tests that can deliver results within minutes - started to be rolled out yesterday to schools and universities. Explaining what they could do, he said:

If we can deliver a mass testing solution so that pupils in a bubble don’t have to isolate for a fortnight when one in a bubble tests positive, we will not only control the spread of the virus, we will protect education better, and help schools and teachers and parents to live their lives much closer to normal.

If this works we could be in a good position with gigs and day festivals at least-  if this test can be done now, in October/November, and it works then imagine how many could be produced by mid-2021. Yes Glastonbury is in doubt because of the extra considerations, but from a bigger picture point of view this could give us live music and events back, and more importantly give that industry their jobs back. 

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Some bad medical news

 

A ban on public events is the single best way to reduce the spread of coronavirus, researchers have found, although a combination of measures is even better.

The study, published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases, involved analysing data relating to non-pharmaceutical interventions in 131 countries, together with changes in their R figure – the average number of people each infected person goes on to infect.

While experts have cautioned that it is unwise to focus on just one metric when it comes to looking at an epidemic, R is an important figure as it gives a sense of whether an epidemic is growing or shrinking.

The new study examined the impact of applying and then relaxing various different interventions, from closing schools to working from home, on the R figure up to 28 days after the rule change was made.

The results reveal that banning public events reduced the R figure by 24% by day 28, with the team suggesting that could be down to it preventing super-spreading events.

Prof Harish Nair, co-author of the study from the University of Edinburgh, said:

Although no single measure is sufficient, [a] ban on public events is perhaps the single intervention that has maximum impact on spread of SARS CoV-2.

However, measures such as telling people to stay at home or only gather in groups of less than 10 had little impact by day 28 – something the team suggests might be down, at least in part, to people not sticking to the rules, or such measures being imposed later.

When looking at which measures led to an uptick in R, the team found reopening schools and relaxing bans on gatherings of more than ten people had the biggest effect, increasing R by 24% and 25% respectively by day 28.

 
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20 hours ago, zahidf said:

Some bad medical news

 

A ban on public events is the single best way to reduce the spread of coronavirus, researchers have found, although a combination of measures is even better.

The study, published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases, involved analysing data relating to non-pharmaceutical interventions in 131 countries, together with changes in their R figure – the average number of people each infected person goes on to infect.

While experts have cautioned that it is unwise to focus on just one metric when it comes to looking at an epidemic, R is an important figure as it gives a sense of whether an epidemic is growing or shrinking.

The new study examined the impact of applying and then relaxing various different interventions, from closing schools to working from home, on the R figure up to 28 days after the rule change was made.

The results reveal that banning public events reduced the R figure by 24% by day 28, with the team suggesting that could be down to it preventing super-spreading events.

Prof Harish Nair, co-author of the study from the University of Edinburgh, said:

Although no single measure is sufficient, [a] ban on public events is perhaps the single intervention that has maximum impact on spread of SARS CoV-2.

However, measures such as telling people to stay at home or only gather in groups of less than 10 had little impact by day 28 – something the team suggests might be down, at least in part, to people not sticking to the rules, or such measures being imposed later.

When looking at which measures led to an uptick in R, the team found reopening schools and relaxing bans on gatherings of more than ten people had the biggest effect, increasing R by 24% and 25% respectively by day 28.

 

Bum. :(

And just imagine, at the start of all this they said do lots of anti-covid stuff but there's no need to ban mass events. ;) 

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11 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Bum. :(

And just imagine, at the start of all this they said do lots of anti-covid stuff but there's no need to ban mass events. ;) 

They said whatever sounded good at the time. Unfortunately there is the slimmest of chances it goes ahead. Mass gathering events for early year are already being postponed until later year. While other festivals in Europe aren't even announcing bands atm who usually do on a weekly basis.

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