Leyrulion Posted September 23, 2020 Report Share Posted September 23, 2020 1 hour ago, hfuhruhurr said: , we have an estimated 8% who have had it (17% in London?). Or 92% who haven't. Even the boffins who wrote the counter letter the other day used 95% of deaths were related to people with underlying conditions, so it kills 5% of healthy people. Herd immunity needs 70%ish to have had it. Multiply any of these % together with 67m people and that's a lot of death. On those numbers, not quite sure on the maths. The Incidence fatality rate is about 0.5%. Which takes account of asymptomatic cases. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hfuhruhurr Posted September 23, 2020 Report Share Posted September 23, 2020 1 hour ago, stuartbert two hats said: Hang on, it doesn't kill 5% of healthy people. 5% of the people it kills are healthy and it only kills around 1% of people. So that's 5% of 1% or 0.05% of healthy people. Hope your day improves. My day has massively improved - thanks for correcting my dubious maths! It had better go ahead next year because although it's a ball ache for the ticketed, us ticketless are having our wait doubled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuartbert two hats Posted September 23, 2020 Report Share Posted September 23, 2020 1 minute ago, hfuhruhurr said: My day has massively improved - thanks for correcting my dubious maths! It had better go ahead next year because although it's a ball ache for the ticketed, us ticketless are having our wait doubled. And as Neil pointed out, the case mortality rate is now under .5%, not 1%, so you're looking at more like .02% mortality for healthy people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zahidf Posted September 23, 2020 Report Share Posted September 23, 2020 If there is a viable vaccine by this year, they will release restrictions asap, even if they can't vaccinate everyone (which they won't need to do) Can you imagine the political shit storm if there is a vaccine but the govt is too incompetent to distribute it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuartbert two hats Posted September 23, 2020 Report Share Posted September 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, zahidf said: If there is a viable vaccine by this year, they will release restrictions asap, even if they can't vaccinate everyone (which they won't need to do) Can you imagine the political shit storm if there is a vaccine but the govt is too incompetent to distribute it? asap yes, but how s is p? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eFestivals Posted September 23, 2020 Report Share Posted September 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, zahidf said: If there is a viable vaccine by this year, they will release restrictions asap, even if they can't vaccinate everyone (which they won't need to do) I don't disagree, although if there's a vaccine available this year it looks like it'll be several months into next year before enough people will have been vaccinated for the govt to feel able to relax most restrictions (based on the WHO prediction of enough vaccine to do 3% of the population by the end of the year). But, if there's a vaccine available this year, they should feel able to make that announcement soon after the vaccine starts being rolled out, as they'll know how much vaccine they'll be getting each month to make plans from. My fingers are firmly crossed! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zahidf Posted September 23, 2020 Report Share Posted September 23, 2020 1 minute ago, eFestivals said: I don't disagree, although if there's a vaccine available this year it looks like it'll be several months into next year before enough people will have been vaccinated for the govt to feel able to relax most restrictions (based on the WHO prediction of enough vaccine to do 3% of the population by the end of the year). But, if there's a vaccine available this year, they should feel able to make that announcement soon after the vaccine starts being rolled out, as they'll know how much vaccine they'll be getting each month to make plans from. My fingers are firmly crossed! Also, could be more than one vaccine available by the end of the year ( unlikely, but possible). I am also of the opinion that people are not going to go along with more restrictions by the beginning of next year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gherring8 Posted September 23, 2020 Report Share Posted September 23, 2020 although it does feature quite early in the year (March) SXSW have already announced their 2021 festival will be virtual https://www.nme.com/news/music/sxsw-announces-virtual-2021-festival-2758971 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zahidf Posted September 23, 2020 Report Share Posted September 23, 2020 47 minutes ago, gherring8 said: although it does feature quite early in the year (March) SXSW have already announced their 2021 festival will be virtual https://www.nme.com/news/music/sxsw-announces-virtual-2021-festival-2758971 ' 'Reps for the festival have confirmed that they are working with health officials and the city of Austin on plans for a physical 2021 event as well.' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TorontoScot Posted September 23, 2020 Report Share Posted September 23, 2020 (edited) Director of CDC positive most Americans will be vaccinated by summer! Sure the UK timeline will be similiar or even faster due to smaller population. #glastoisgo https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/us/cdc-director-sticks-to-timeline-that-most-americans-to-get-vaccine-by-summer-2021/ar-BB19mcEb?li=AAggFp5&ocid=mailsignout Edited September 23, 2020 by TorontoScot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suprefan Posted September 24, 2020 Report Share Posted September 24, 2020 11 hours ago, gherring8 said: although it does feature quite early in the year (March) SXSW have already announced their 2021 festival will be virtual https://www.nme.com/news/music/sxsw-announces-virtual-2021-festival-2758971 Why would they try to have as many bands as they have even commit to going to Austin for a week. And on top of that, the new visa fees that have to be paid to even enter the u.s. make it not financially viable for some random small artist from poland to travel anyway. Theyll save the money that they can and a lot of places have closed in the city as it is. Coachella is seemingly going to decide whether it happens in April or October. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eFestivals Posted September 24, 2020 Report Share Posted September 24, 2020 this is what a small socially-distanced festival looks like... https://www.efestivals.co.uk/festivals/beardyfolk/2020/galleries.shtml Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
km9 Posted September 24, 2020 Report Share Posted September 24, 2020 34 minutes ago, eFestivals said: this is what a small socially-distanced festival looks like... https://www.efestivals.co.uk/festivals/beardyfolk/2020/galleries.shtml Then pray for a vaccine!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UEF Posted September 24, 2020 Report Share Posted September 24, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, eFestivals said: this is what a small socially-distanced festival looks like... https://www.efestivals.co.uk/festivals/beardyfolk/2020/galleries.shtml Something like that would be akin to evoking the Glastonbury of old Tickets would be £10,000 each, of course Edited September 24, 2020 by UEF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
music fan Posted September 24, 2020 Report Share Posted September 24, 2020 What's going on with how long these existing restrictions could or will last? Boris said on Tuesday night that these restrictions MAY last another 6 months. But Rishi Sunak has just said "These restrictions are going to last AT LEAST another 6 months."!!! So which statement is correct??!! I was actually feeling a little optimistic that we can defeat this second peak of Coronavirus well before 6 months from now, maybe by about 4 months from now. And that then these very hassly and restrictive restrictions can finally be scrapped, and a good chance that the bulk of next summer's festivals may well be able to take place. But now after hearing Rishi's statement that these restrictions are going to last for AT LEAST another 6 months, I'm not feeling so optimistic now. This could all drag out until at least April or May next year and we're going to see a lot of festival organisers cancelling their festivals by then, due to this uncertainty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eFestivals Posted September 24, 2020 Report Share Posted September 24, 2020 1 minute ago, music fan said: What's going on with how long these existing restrictions could or will last? Boris said on Tuesday night that these restrictions MAY last another 6 months. But Rishi Sunak has just said "These restrictions are going to last AT LEAST another 6 months."!!! So which statement is correct??!! probably both. The law that allows the govt to make restrictions expires at the end of March. The actual restrictions might vary between now and March. I don't think Sunak should be taken too literally, and he's referencing how his measures cover the length of the restrictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
parsonjack Posted September 24, 2020 Report Share Posted September 24, 2020 On 9/23/2020 at 7:57 AM, eFestivals said: yeah, I've already said that it would need an early announcement of restrictions ending; i don't think that's impossible. They'll want to get good news out there as early as they can. As I've just suggested above, xmas seems the perfect point for it (dependent on the situation at the time, of course). As time goes on we know more about what is and isn't possible - and it seems bleedin' obvious already that the risks of outdoor transmission even without masks are quite low. The Event Management Plan has to include detail of Medical, Welfare, Entry policy etc so any Covid measures will likely need to be in there. It's required to be submitted 180 days before festival commences which would make it 25th December, unless there is any dispensation to define such measures later as situation determines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eFestivals Posted September 24, 2020 Report Share Posted September 24, 2020 10 minutes ago, parsonjack said: The Event Management Plan has to include detail of Medical, Welfare, Entry policy etc so any Covid measures will likely need to be in there. It's required to be submitted 180 days before festival commences which would make it 25th December, unless there is any dispensation to define such measures later as situation determines. It hasn't worked like that for the small number of festivals which have gone ahead this summer, or have planned to go ahead before a late-ish cancellation, so I don't think that will be a festival-breaker. And as things stand councils are able to revoke a licence if they're not happy, so I reckon a commitment to do whatever is appropriate at the time of the fest will be enough to get past that fixed date. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
parsonjack Posted September 24, 2020 Report Share Posted September 24, 2020 10 minutes ago, eFestivals said: It hasn't worked like that for the small number of festivals which have gone ahead this summer, or have planned to go ahead before a late-ish cancellation, so I don't think that will be a festival-breaker. And as things stand councils are able to revoke a licence if they're not happy, so I reckon a commitment to do whatever is appropriate at the time of the fest will be enough to get past that fixed date. Good points......and a submission of an EMP by 25th Dec doesn't guarantee it will happen, it's just an intent that could be rescinded later. GFL could still submit one even if they have doubts about it happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuie Posted September 24, 2020 Report Share Posted September 24, 2020 1 hour ago, music fan said: But now after hearing Rishi's statement that these restrictions are going to last for AT LEAST another 6 months, I'm not feeling so optimistic now. This could all drag out until at least April or May next year and we're going to see a lot of festival organisers cancelling their festivals by then, due to this uncertainty. I don't want to be negative, but I'm more concerned about all the independent parts that make up Glastonbury and other festivals at the moment. What's still going to be available by the time festivals come back? Staging companies, sound and light engineers, techies, traders, food vendors, equipment suppliers and so on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeyT Posted September 24, 2020 Report Share Posted September 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, stuie said: I don't want to be negative, but I'm more concerned about all the independent parts that make up Glastonbury and other festivals at the moment. What's still going to be available by the time festivals come back? Staging companies, sound and light engineers, techies, traders, food vendors, equipment suppliers and so on. This got me thinking, Glastonbury is well known for it's charitable contributions and I know the likes of Oxfam and Wateraid are the most well known recipients but is there anything they can do to financially help some of the festival related businesses in the industries mentioned above? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eFestivals Posted September 24, 2020 Report Share Posted September 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, stuie said: I don't want to be negative, but I'm more concerned about all the independent parts that make up Glastonbury and other festivals at the moment. What's still going to be available by the time festivals come back? Staging companies, sound and light engineers, techies, traders, food vendors, equipment suppliers and so on. In theory it shouldn't be an issue. Even if (say) a staging company goes bust, the stages still exist and someone will buy them and be available. And staff will either be unemployed and able to come back, or will take another job and come back if they want to. If they don't want to then there's plenty of others keen to get into an exciting business. In theory. The reality would be plenty of disruption but I don't think it'll make things impossible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
parsonjack Posted September 24, 2020 Report Share Posted September 24, 2020 (edited) 29 minutes ago, JoeyT said: This got me thinking, Glastonbury is well known for it's charitable contributions and I know the likes of Oxfam and Wateraid are the most well known recipients but is there anything they can do to financially help some of the festival related businesses in the industries mentioned above? I had similar thoughts, especially around the impact if 2021 has to be pulled. For 2020 GFL simply rolled over tickets for those who wished to retain them but would they do the same if 2021 has to be postponed? Could there be a case for a scheme where 2020 deposits are either returned, rolled over, or can be forfeited to benefit the charities and related businesses in return for a guaranteed 2022 ticket, with a new deposit to be paid at the appropriate time? Edited September 24, 2020 by parsonjack Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuartbert two hats Posted September 24, 2020 Report Share Posted September 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, eFestivals said: In theory it shouldn't be an issue. Even if (say) a staging company goes bust, the stages still exist and someone will buy them and be available. And staff will either be unemployed and able to come back, or will take another job and come back if they want to. If they don't want to then there's plenty of others keen to get into an exciting business. In theory. The reality would be plenty of disruption but I don't think it'll make things impossible. The problem comes when Simon at Serious Stages is let go and finds another job in a sector that's not as affected and doesn't want to quit his new job to come back. Or the storage becomes too expensive and gear ends up in landfill. I agree it can come back, but a bit like a stopped heart, the longer we leave it, the harder it will be to bring back. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeyT Posted September 24, 2020 Report Share Posted September 24, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, parsonjack said: I had similar thoughts, especially around the impact if 2021 has to be pulled. For 2020 GFL simply rolled over tickets for those who wished to retain them but would they do the same if 2021 has to be postponed? Could there be a case for a scheme where 2020 deposits are either returned, rolled over, or can be forfeited to benefit the charities and related businesses in return for a guaranteed 2021 ticket, with a new deposit to be paid at the appropriate time? Great idea! I know everyone is in a different position but I'd more than happily let them keep / redistribute my £50 for a guaranteed ticket the following year. How many tickets were sold in back in October 2019? Even working from a 100,000 it's 5 million quid the festival has (+ associated interest that gains I assume?) If as little as 20% opted for the above scheme it would be £1million to share between the various charities & businesses. Edited September 24, 2020 by JoeyT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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