Future of festivals...

[incident]

54 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

With all restrictions ended 1st April, has been my prediction for months.

You never know, I might even end up being right.

It's too early to write off next summer.

Yep, it's hilarious how some people are embracing the doom and gloom when nothing fundamental has changed.

[stuie]

I don't think today changes much. 

I'd rather hold on to some hope through the dark winter months. 

That's when it shines brightest after all. 

 

[Hugh Jass]

8 minutes ago, incident said:

Yep, it's hilarious how some people are embracing the doom and gloom when nothing fundamental has changed.

It’s the eFests way.

[stuartbert two hats]

21 minutes ago, incident said:

Yep, it's hilarious how some people are embracing the doom and gloom when nothing fundamental has changed.

It's finally absorbing how long it's going to take to roll out a vaccine and the chances that the first vaccine to enter trials might not actually be rolled out in September and delivered to us all by Christmas.  

[Ryan1984]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

With all restrictions ended 1st April, has been my prediction for months.

You never know, I might even end up being right.

It's too early to write off next summer.

Yep, you’ve said this a few times and I agree. There will come a time when they decide people have to ‘live with the virus’ and when better than the turn of the financial year?

[incident]

3 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

It's finally absorbing how long it's going to take to roll out a vaccine and the chances that the first vaccine to enter trials might not actually be rolled out in September and delivered to us all by Christmas.  

Nobody has ever expected that timescale, except maybe the most optimistic best case guesswork back in March or April. More importantly, that timescale is far ahead of what would actually be needed.

Add 3-4 months to the dates, and replace "us all" with "core recipients", and it becomes (under current estimates) very realistic if one of the 3 leading candidates works out. In that scenario, Festivals including Glastonbury would certainly be able to go ahead. It's likely we'll know with confidence whether we're set to achieve that within a couple of months, but the announcements today don't change it in the slightest.

[stuartbert two hats]

3 minutes ago, incident said:

Nobody has ever expected that timescale, except maybe the most optimistic best case guesswork back in March or April. More importantly, that timescale is far ahead of what would actually be needed.

Add 3-4 months to the dates, and replace "us all" with "core recipients", and it becomes (under current estimates) very realistic if one of the 3 leading candidates works out. In that scenario, Festivals including Glastonbury would certainly be able to go ahead. It's likely we'll know with confidence whether we're set to achieve that within a couple of months, but the announcements today don't change it in the slightest.

No I know, I was using hyperbole to make a point.   I still had overly optimistic timeframes in my head, even if I didn't actually expect it in September.

[Quark]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

No I know, I was using hyperbole to make a point.   I still had overly optimistic timeframes in my head, even if I didn't actually expect it in September.

Do we still need to beat some of that optimism out of you?

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, Quark said:

Do we still need to beat some of that optimism out of you?

No.  It's all gone.  

[blutarsky]

3 hours ago, Quark said:

Can I interest you in a food voucher instead?

 

[stuartbert two hats]

50 minutes ago, blutarsky said:

 

If we could lift all the restrictions...

[music fan]

On 9/21/2020 at 12:10 PM, eFestivals said:

I'm fairly confident - although I think it depends on how early the govt announces what's going to happen.

My take has always been that big restrictions will end at the end of March next year (providing hospitals are coping), and from that point on we'll be "living with the virus" (until there's a vaccine).

At that point there should be a decent amount of herd immunity, plus the ability to spend more time outside where transmissions are lower.

I'm keeping my fingers firmly crossed. 

 

Well, let's hope the end of March really is the end of all these restrictions once and for all.  As we just can't go on this like this for potentially years on end. It's unsustainable, it's wrecking the economy and many people's mental health.  But yet another 6 months of all this still ahead of us is very depressing.  I think most people now have had enough of all this.  Hopefully we can get all these cases and deaths right down AGAIN over the next few months-ish, and hopefully then get all these restrictions scrapped well before the end of March. 

Also as you say, an issue is how far in advance the government announces the definite end of these restrictions.  It could well be barely just a week or two in advance - which could be as late as mid to late March.  By then, with still the uncertainty of the situation, Michael and Emily Eavis may well have decided to cancel Glastonbury.  And other festival organisers may well have cancelled their festivals too.  Indeed, a few of next years festivals have already been cancelled several months in advance.  

But fingers crossed that things work out.  All this silly social distancing and face mask wearing nonsense scrapped, and a great summer of festivals, including the big one..... Glastonbury.  

Edited September 22, 2020 by music fan

[Memory Man]

9 hours ago, brettredmayne said:

Will Glastonbury jump this year early knowing the money that it will cost to keep planning a festival that's in doubt? 

 

These are my thoughts, but also for the entire festival circuit. Surely most will be making the go / no go call in December or January for fear of spending £ promoting & organising something which may never happen. 
its not going to be a call made in march/april like this year, it is going to be made much earlier than that.

[Memory Man]

9 hours ago, eFestivals said:

With all restrictions ended 1st April, has been my prediction for months.

You never know, I might even end up being right.

It's too early to write off next summer.

I get this line of thinking, it makes sense. However... would the govt not need to confirm that this is “the plan” long before the 1st april in order for large scale events to be able to plan? 

Do you think govt will come out in january for example and say from april get on with it? Or do you think they’d keep cards close to chest until march at which point fests across the board may have already called off their events.

[Matt42]

Nah people were definitely saying September vaccine, whether it was based on anything concrete or not. 

[hfuhruhurr]

Yeah - the AstraZeneca guy was saying September when earlier in the summer. He's now saying "before the end of the year". 

So, we have an estimated 8% who have had it (17% in London?). Or 92% who haven't. Even the boffins who wrote the counter letter the other day used 95% of deaths were related to people with underlying conditions, so it kills 5% of healthy people. Herd immunity needs 70%ish to have had it. Multiply any of these % together with 67m people and that's a lot of death. So the government are slowing the spread until a vaccine. No vaccine, no festival. The testing thing is a fantasy. Testing needs to be rapid and accurate and massively available to everyone within hours to be effective - and that doesn't exist. One of the requirements gives and the whole thing fails.

Rescuing the economy is a political philosophy issue - we're a rich country, there is plenty for everyone. There just isn't the political will, nor the generosity of enough of the population to make things fair. This public voted in the tories with a huge majority - they want this, it's awful, but they want brexit and they want a "I'm alright jack" dobbing-in society. Frickin nightmare.

Yeah, I'm having a bad day.

[eFestivals]

15 hours ago, Ryan1984 said:

Yep, you’ve said this a few times and I agree. There will come a time when they decide people have to ‘live with the virus’ and when better than the turn of the financial year?

lol!

The coronavirus restrictions law would need renewing at the end of March. Plus it will have been a year - and hopefully a vaccine will be being rolled out by then too. Seems the logical place to dump restrictions unless healthcare provision is too fucked to contemplate it.

I'm gonna take another guess, and say that Spaffer will announce the end of restrictions for April as his message of xmas cheer to the nation (because it'll be the only good news he can find  ).

[eFestivals]

15 hours ago, incident said:

Nobody has ever expected that timescale,

WHO are currently prediction enough vaccine for 3% of the world's population rolled out to (almost) every nation before the end of the year.

The biggest bummer with that prediction is that it'll be the end of 2022 before everyone has been vaccinated.

If the vaccine is being rolled out before the end of the year, and restrictions in the UK are keeping covid in check, then it becomes fairly easy to look forwards to normal life for the summer.

[eFestivals]

7 hours ago, Memory Man said:

These are my thoughts, but also for the entire festival circuit. Surely most will be making the go / no go call in December or January for fear of spending £ promoting & organising something which may never happen. 
its not going to be a call made in march/april like this year, it is going to be made much earlier than that.

from what they've said about tickets it looks like they want to make a decision in January.

I think it'll be obvious by then if it's not going to be able to go ahead, but I reckon they can hold out on a final decision for another 2 months if things look hopeful-ish.

[eFestivals]

7 hours ago, Memory Man said:

I get this line of thinking, it makes sense. However... would the govt not need to confirm that this is “the plan” long before the 1st april in order for large scale events to be able to plan? 

Do you think govt will come out in january for example and say from april get on with it? Or do you think they’d keep cards close to chest until march at which point fests across the board may have already called off their events.

yeah, I've already said that it would need an early announcement of restrictions ending; i don't think that's impossible.

They'll want to get good news out there as early as they can. As I've just suggested above, xmas seems the perfect point for it (dependent on the situation at the time, of course).

As time goes on we know more about what is and isn't possible - and it seems bleedin' obvious already that the risks of outdoor transmission even without masks are quite low.

[Chapple12345]

I think other festivals will be able to go ahead and will adapt to the situation but I dont know if Glasto will happen due to the sheer size and scale of it, I'm more than certain though by the end of the year we will be back to a bigger form of normality and gigs will be taking place - this summer suffered due to the uncertainty surrounding the virus and lack of time to prepare alternative plans however next year is far more likely as they have time to come up with alternative plans to allow them the best chance of going ahead and we also know a lot more about how the virus works and how it can effect people, I hate to be that person but its still far too early to make any calls on this so far

Edited September 23, 2020 by Chapple12345

[eFestivals]

39 minutes ago, hfuhruhurr said:

The testing thing is a fantasy. Testing needs to be rapid and accurate and massively available to everyone within hours to be effective - and that doesn't exist.

it's getting closer tho. Rome airport is now testing arrivals with a 90 minute test.

 

[Ryan1984]

6 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

it's getting closer tho. Rome airport is now testing arrivals with a 90 minute test.

 

Doesn’t Iceland have similar?

You are 100% right on Boris giving a big Christmas speech full of hope. It’s inevitable. Raab this morning was going on about getting through to Christmas and how there will be some light heading into spring... They’re already laying the foundations.

[stuartbert two hats]

1 hour ago, hfuhruhurr said:

Even the boffins who wrote the counter letter the other day used 95% of deaths were related to people with underlying conditions, so it kills 5% of healthy people. 

Hang on, it doesn't kill 5% of healthy people. 5% of the people it kills are healthy and it only kills around 1% of people. So that's 5% of 1% or 0.05% of healthy people.

Hope your day improves.

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

and it only kills around 1% of people.

it's less than half that.