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Future of festivals...


Sawdusty surfer
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I'm fairly confident - although I think it depends on how early the govt announces what's going to happen.

My take has always been that big restrictions will end at the end of March next year (providing hospitals are coping), and from that point on we'll be "living with the virus" (until there's a vaccine).

At that point there should be a decent amount of herd immunity, plus the ability to spend more time outside where transmissions are lower.

I'm keeping my fingers firmly crossed. 

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5 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I'm fairly confident - although I think it depends on how early the govt announces what's going to happen.

My take has always been that big restrictions will end at the end of March next year (providing hospitals are coping), and from that point on we'll be "living with the virus" (until there's a vaccine).

At that point there should be a decent amount of herd immunity, plus the ability to spend more time outside where transmissions are lower.

I'm keeping my fingers firmly crossed. 

And if there is a working vaccine, they'll work towards getting vulnerable people vaccinated as well as key workers so even if there is a spread...

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4 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Reading and Leeds have won music week's 'festival of the year 2020'.Z

How does a not-happening festival win anything...? :blink: 

 

I can't believe they beat Quarkstock to the title. I had Elvis, The Beatles and Beethoven all theoretically lined up. Politics I tell you.

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20 hours ago, eFestivals said:

I'm fairly confident - although I think it depends on how early the govt announces what's going to happen.

My take has always been that big restrictions will end at the end of March next year (providing hospitals are coping), and from that point on we'll be "living with the virus" (until there's a vaccine).

At that point there should be a decent amount of herd immunity, plus the ability to spend more time outside where transmissions are lower.

I'm keeping my fingers firmly crossed. 

I am loving that confidence ... we need more of this

 

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20 hours ago, eFestivals said:

I'm fairly confident - although I think it depends on how early the govt announces what's going to happen.

My take has always been that big restrictions will end at the end of March next year (providing hospitals are coping), and from that point on we'll be "living with the virus" (until there's a vaccine).

At that point there should be a decent amount of herd immunity, plus the ability to spend more time outside where transmissions are lower.

I'm keeping my fingers firmly crossed. 

But even if its a full go if it all pans out there is still a likelihood of safety measures and  testing that would occur at any large scale event I would presume. That is probably the tricky part since the government isnt showing signs of producing a better set of guidelines for a living with the virus scenario and such.

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38 minutes ago, Suprefan said:

But even if its a full go if it all pans out there is still a likelihood of safety measures and  testing that would occur at any large scale event I would presume. That is probably the tricky part since the government isnt showing signs of producing a better set of guidelines for a living with the virus scenario and such.

Not sure if you've seen the who vaccine plan, but they're hoping to distribute enough vaccine by the end if the year to vaccine 3% of people in all countries - which will be the most vulnerable & health workers (obvs not all health workers ;) ).

If that happens as hoped, that removes the worst issues with the virus - and of course there'll be more vaccine rolled out over following months (although it'll take till the end of 2022 to get to almost everyone).

I don't think there's going to be testing in the amounts needed for it to work for festivals and the like, and I saw that Harding has tried to disassociate the NHS testing regime from the 'moonshot' too, so I don't hold much hope for that.

Sooner or later the new normal is going to be back to how things were and the virus out there, same as with flu. I can't see the govt going with anything else by next summer - so the only question is going to be about when they go public with a plan like that. Will it be soon enough for Glasto? If the who vaccine plan does start to roll out by the end of the year I reckon we'll be good for Glasto.

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25 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

 

Sooner or later the new normal is going to be back to how things were and the virus out there, same as with flu. I can't see the govt going with anything else by next summer - so the only question is going to be about when they go public with a plan like that.

The problem with this plan is the infection rate of the virus - globally it's been linearly infecting a million new cases every 3-4 day - if it was like flu it should have been increasing at least slightly exponentially. That makes this globally a slow spreading virus compared to something like flu, and slow moving virals tend not to mutate so it would be unlikely to evolve or lose its potency for years.
 
A new seasonal flu by comparison can from first case infect up to a billion humans in an average year (365 days).  Where as Covid at the speed it is infecting humans around the world will only be at 100 million globally by Glastonbury 2021. At the current infection rate it would take Covid 5,370 days to reach a billion humans - that would be the end of May 2035!
 
If we were to go for it to be endemic throughout the entire global population of 7.7 billion and we'd all be vaccinated against the worst effects of the virus - it would take Covid 26 years to infect everyone in the world.
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1 minute ago, 5co77ie said:
The problem with this plan is the infection rate of the virus - globally it's been linearly infecting a million new cases every 3-4 day - if it was like flu it should have been increasing at least slightly exponentially. That makes this globally a slow spreading virus compared to something like flu, and slow moving virals tend not to mutate so it would be unlikely to evolve or lose its potency for years.
 
A new seasonal flu by comparison can from first case infect up to a billion humans in an average year (365 days).  Where as Covid at the speed it is infecting humans around the world will only be at 100 million globally by Glastonbury 2021. At the current infection rate it would take Covid 5,370 days to reach a billion humans - that would be the end of May 2035!
 
If we were to go for it to be endemic throughout the entire global population of 7.7 billion and we'd all be vaccinated against the worst effects of the virus - it would take Covid 26 years to infect everyone in the world.

I think the plan would be for oldies and health workers/vulnerable to get it. Then it would vaccinate enough people for it to stop spreading.

 

Would also spread faster without social distancing.

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2 minutes ago, 5co77ie said:

Where as Covid at the speed it is infecting humans around the world will only be at 100 million globally by Glastonbury 2021.

no way.

The UK is at about 8% of people already infected - which is around 5M people just here. India has registered 5M positive tests, which would likely mean it's had 50M+ cases already.  The USA has registered 6.8M cases, which also means it's likely to have had 50M+ cases already. Etc, etc, etc.

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44 minutes ago, 5co77ie said:
The problem with this plan is the infection rate of the virus - globally it's been linearly infecting a million new cases every 3-4 day - if it was like flu it should have been increasing at least slightly exponentially. That makes this globally a slow spreading virus compared to something like flu, and slow moving virals tend not to mutate so it would be unlikely to evolve or lose its potency for years.
 
A new seasonal flu by comparison can from first case infect up to a billion humans in an average year (365 days).  Where as Covid at the speed it is infecting humans around the world will only be at 100 million globally by Glastonbury 2021. At the current infection rate it would take Covid 5,370 days to reach a billion humans - that would be the end of May 2035!
 
If we were to go for it to be endemic throughout the entire global population of 7.7 billion and we'd all be vaccinated against the worst effects of the virus - it would take Covid 26 years to infect everyone in the world.

Isn't the reason it's been growing linearly because of all the measures to suppress its growth?  Whenever you look at outbreaks before lockdowns or social distancing are in place, it does seem to growth exponentially.  

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Up to 6 months, not a definite.  Plus that takes through the winter flu season, which is going to be the highest risk so it makes sense that restrictions could be around for that long.

With a view on next year, in all honesty this doesn't change my thought process that much.

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