Jump to content

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, xxialac said:

My point was it wasn't the curfew that was linked to May but the state of emergency.

The reason for long period is they don't want to have to renew the state of emergency all through winter.

The curfew almost certainly won't last for 6 months - as we know the virus is up and down.

exactly. Basically what he said is 'lockdown until we say otherwise'. if things will go better before that, it will be removed.

 

Having said that, sadly it looks more and more like this is also correct:

1 hour ago, Andrej said:

Around 2% chance for Prima in early June. Its either late August / early Sept, or 2022.

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

They're crap. That's whats wrong with them.

To be frank, by the time we are allowed to have festivals again - be it June 2021, August 2021 or Summer 2022 - they can put my mother-in-law on stage for all I care... (ok, that's a lie, but you

Posted Images

2 hours ago, Andrej said:

Around 2% chance for Prima in early June. Its either late August / early Sept, or 2022.

 

Can only agree, sadly. Of course the curfew can be lifted but it might be considered entirely indicative of the view of European authorities in terms of timescale of a winter / early spring second wave that the SOE has been extended to May 2021. There’s literally no chance Primavera is happening immediately on the back of that. I’d hope there’s an announcement not too long into the new year.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/25/2020 at 4:31 PM, burnleynotbarcelona said:

Can only agree, sadly. Of course the curfew can be lifted but it might be considered entirely indicative of the view of European authorities in terms of timescale of a winter / early spring second wave that the SOE has been extended to May 2021. There’s literally no chance Primavera is happening immediately on the back of that. I’d hope there’s an announcement not too long into the new year.

I don't think you can read so much into this.

If there's one thing the crisis has taught us, it's that the 'authorities' are terrible at predicting how it will pan out. They underestimated it before (previously they had to extend the SOE FOUR times and then they got complacent about the second wave) and they can overestimate it too.

Announcing May, for all we know could be a way of psychologically preparing citizens for the long haul. It doesn't mean the second wave is going to end in May.

If you looked at the last wave, that took about a month to dramatically recede. Just a month! Of course there may be a third wave but we don't know...

So I do still agree low chance of festivals in June but a change in weather, vaccines and above all improved testing means you cannot say 'literally no chance'.

 

Edited by xxialac
  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't want to give you any false expectation but yesterday the President of the laboratory in Rome who's working at the vaccine trial together with Oxford University and Astra Zeneca said that, if anything unexpected will happen, the trial will be ended before the end of November and the vaccine authorized during December.

Then he added he's expecting everyone to be vaccinated in June 2021.

Finally some hope words.

Edited by gigi21
  • Upvote 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, gigi21 said:

I don't want to give you any false expectation but yesterday the President of the laboratory in Rome who's working at the vaccine trial together with Oxford University and Astra Zeneca said that, if anything unexpected will happen, the trial will be ended before the end of November and the vaccine authorized during December.

Then he added he's expecting everyone to be vaccinated in June 2021.

Finally some hope words.

Very nice, got an article for it?

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, xxialac said:

If you looked at the last wave, that took about a month to dramatically recede. Just a month! Of course there may be a third wave but we don't know...

 

"Just a month" with an absolute closure of every non-essential business and an mandatory lockdown on everybody, mind essential workers. But yes, just a month.

Re:Glastonbury - it's happening in June until they say it's not. And I'm not talking about Glasto especifically, but we've seen how this works during the whole year. Every promoter will pull the plug when they have to, even if they agree on that a few days before.

And regarding the vaccine, the Ministry of Health announced a few weeks ago 30 million doses will arrive to Spain in the first bach, meaning 15 million people will get the vaccine. According to 2018 statistics, there are about 13.6 million Spaniards above 55 years old, so that first batch will go almost entirely to them + health workers, as it should be. Therefore, I feel confident they will be vaccinated before June 2021 (let's pray way before that), but I highly doubt most of the festival attendees will.

Edited by Nesser
Link to post
Share on other sites

Festival attendees don't need to be vaccinated I'd suggest, they need to be tested effectively, alongside some other protections (e.g. vaccination of the vulnerable) happening in the background.

I'd guess more likely to get to this point by August than June but wouldn't rule it out...

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, xxialac said:

Festival attendees don't need to be vaccinated I'd suggest, they need to be tested effectively, alongside some other protections (e.g. vaccination of the vulnerable) happening in the background.

I'd guess more likely to get to this point by August than June but wouldn't rule it out...

An outbreak at a festival would be devastating, even if no risk groups were affected. With everything we are currently learning about long term conequences it is absolutely reckless to go forward with a festival where less than 2/3 of attendees have immunity.  
Even if the first vaccines will be available by January it will take all year to get sufficient vaccination out. There is unanimous agreement amongst all the poeple I have spoking to in booking and touring agencies that there will be no large Festivals in Europe in 2021. It is simply not possible to plan them under the current conditions. Many acts are already rescheduling their dates for the first half of 2021. The sector has seen tremendous losses and testing is not even an option because there is no money to pay for it. Vaccines will be covered by health insurance, but getting tested for a festival will neither be paid by insurances nor by muncipalities or governments. Naturally no festival will admit it will not happen at this time, and indeed many are working on solutions (because what else can they do?), but none seem plausible at this time.

The only thing that can work is that the numbers will be lowered by keeping up rigid measures all through Winter, so the vaccines can be rolled out when there are only very few cases. This would require rather harsh measures for approximately six months at least though so the spread (like we see one right now) is delayed til after summer, when we approach relevant vaccination quotas. I don't see compliance with such harsh measures anywhere in Europe though and even if the numbers were lowered significantly, a local outbreak in Barcelona in Spring could kill all plans.

Bottom line: the music industry cannot risk an all-in scenario and will not go through with the 2021 season.

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, xxialac said:

Festival attendees don't need to be vaccinated I'd suggest, they need to be tested effectively, alongside some other protections (e.g. vaccination of the vulnerable) happening in the background.

I'd guess more likely to get to this point by August than June but wouldn't rule it out...

Agree, especially because if festival attendees need to be vaccinated we're facing 2022 if not 2023. 

But, my main question nowadays is: will the Government green light these kind of events once the vulnerable are immune knowing that the virus could circulate between the 18-50 age gap? 

Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Quadrophobia said:

There is unanimous agreement amongst all the poeple I have spoking to in booking and touring agencies that there will be no large Festivals in Europe in 2021.

Then why are promoters and booking agents scheduling more and more new stuff for the summer? Even a quick glance at the eFests sidebar with new announcements every day proves there's at least some confidence within the industry that these could happen or they wouldn't bother trying to book stuff in, spend on marketing, pay deposits etc at all. These aren't just regional festivals either, stuff like Pearl Jam only got announced a couple of weeks ago. Gorillaz just announced an indoor arena tour for the summer, which is even more of a stretch than an outdoor one. Stuff is moving.

 

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Nesser said:

Agree, especially because if festival attendees need to be vaccinated we're facing 2022 if not 2023. 

But, my main question nowadays is: will the Government green light these kind of events once the vulnerable are immune knowing that the virus could circulate between the 18-50 age gap? 

The fact is most governments are working on the idea that it's simply going to have to circulate amongst these people once the vaccine's out. Once the most vulnerable, older people and frontline workers are vaccinated then it's hopefully going to keep the R rate lower, and by doing that eventually the virus will just quieten down and keep a lot more manageable through lack of transmission chains. This is coupled with things like more rapid testing.

It's got to the point where it's simply not feasible to expect the entire world to wait for everyone to be vaccinated, and the UK government in particular have said that was never their plan anyway. Healthy 18-50 year olds are very, very low on the priority list regardless of any potential long term complications.

I can't forsee any government or local government wanting another spring/summer where tourism is gone, large events are gone, sporting events are gone – particularly as we now know that outdoor transmission is very very low. As soon as they have vaccination timescales they'll be wanting to get all these things and 'real life' cooking again using whatever tools are available.

  • Upvote 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Quadrophobia said:

An outbreak at a festival would be devastating, even if no risk groups were affected. With everything we are currently learning about long term conequences it is absolutely reckless to go forward with a festival where less than 2/3 of attendees have immunity.  
Even if the first vaccines will be available by January it will take all year to get sufficient vaccination out. There is unanimous agreement amongst all the poeple I have spoking to in booking and touring agencies that there will be no large Festivals in Europe in 2021. It is simply not possible to plan them under the current conditions. Many acts are already rescheduling their dates for the first half of 2021. The sector has seen tremendous losses and testing is not even an option because there is no money to pay for it. Vaccines will be covered by health insurance, but getting tested for a festival will neither be paid by insurances nor by muncipalities or governments. Naturally no festival will admit it will not happen at this time, and indeed many are working on solutions (because what else can they do?), but none seem plausible at this time.

The only thing that can work is that the numbers will be lowered by keeping up rigid measures all through Winter, so the vaccines can be rolled out when there are only very few cases. This would require rather harsh measures for approximately six months at least though so the spread (like we see one right now) is delayed til after summer, when we approach relevant vaccination quotas. I don't see compliance with such harsh measures anywhere in Europe though and even if the numbers were lowered significantly, a local outbreak in Barcelona in Spring could kill all plans.

Bottom line: the music industry cannot risk an all-in scenario and will not go through with the 2021 season.

But there's also a cost to having to run a music-related business for yet another 12 months with Zero Income

The cost of testing people by June could be a tiny fraction of that.

Testing could be done by dogs by then for all we know (e.g. dogs do initial test and the 1% of those that are marked as suspected of having covid are taken to a separate place for a more formal second test).

I respect that you are in the know with the promoter perspective but none of us are in the know as to how rapidly or otherwise sophisticated, affordable testing will develop (and there's still 7 months to go!) nor how strict or otherwise government will be about allowing mass events like football and concerts once some degree of vaccination has taken place in the population.

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Fabrizzo said:
Quote

 

“We’re keeping close details of the negotiations under wraps but the government we are dealing with is close to signing off on it.

“It would mean people are pre-tested, say 24 to 48 hours before, then temperature tested when they go in – for belt and braces.

“The pilot would be for 1000 people, then those people would be tested after the event. They will perhaps have to quarantine after the event but we are sorting out fine details.

 

Yikes

 

1 hour ago, jannybruck said:

Then why are promoters and booking agents scheduling more and more new stuff for the summer?.

 

Because they are pretending business as usual until they decide to announce the cancellation. Look what any festival did this year.

 

15 minutes ago, xxialac said:

But there's also a cost to having to run a music-related business for yet another 12 months with Zero Income

Governments can do that (see what they are imposing to bars in Spain) and one of my fears is that they will go ahead with another blank year for festivals.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Nesser said:

Because they are pretending business as usual until they decide to announce the cancellation. Look what any festival did this year.

Moving or cancelling events is a pain in the arse. There's absolutely no way festivals and promoters would be actively booking in large acts and new festivals (see: Travis Scott at Rolling Loud, one of the biggest artists in the world, announced today) in the knowledge that it's being cancelled. It's unrealistic, costly, and pointless. And you just can't compare where we were in spring this year (when we barely knew anything about the virus or even how it's transmitted) to the next six months (where we now understand the virus, will have a vaccine, and have tools to assist with testing).

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Once a vaccine is announced, I think there will be real pressure to get events up and running again. A number of economies rely on not just large music events, but sporting events. I can't see them not having audiences at the Euros or the Olympics, I think there will be a real push from countries around the world to put together a robust testing regime, once a vaccine is available as that will shore up resources a bit, whilst they are injecting the most vulnerable in society. By all accounts, the Oxford University vaccine is looking very good - there looks to be millions of doses already in production and ready for delivery once approval is given.

We are also beginning to see tests with results in minutes, I think this will be scaled up, as manufacturing processes get stronger and more streamlined. I know how much of a catastrophe testing and tracing has been in many countries, but in just 6 months, most countries have scaled up from 0 tests per day to in some cases hundreds of thousands daily, why can't there be millions in 8 months time?! I'm beginning to feel a bit more optimistic. I think there will be small-scale indoor gigs (1000 capacity) by February/March, with hopeful festivals by end of June/early July.

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Gilgamesh69 said:

Very nice, got an article for it?

Lots of articles in the net, but all in Italian...
https://www.fanpage.it/attualita/vaccino-coronavirus-di-lorenzo-a-dicembre-pronte-3-milioni-dosi-entro-giugno-tutti-vaccinati/

Anyway, looking at next spring-summer season, no one knows for sure what this really means for all the reasons the other guys explained + viruses are mutable and vaccine effectiveness through time haven't been sufficiently tested.

But who knows, things are moving fast in every direction, let's wait and see.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jannybruck said:

Moving or cancelling events is a pain in the arse. There's absolutely no way festivals and promoters would be actively booking in large acts and new festivals (see: Travis Scott at Rolling Loud, one of the biggest artists in the world, announced today) in the knowledge that it's being cancelled. It's unrealistic, costly, and pointless. And you just can't compare where we were in spring this year (when we barely knew anything about the virus or even how it's transmitted) to the next six months (where we now understand the virus, will have a vaccine, and have tools to assist with testing).

Do you honestly think Rolling Loud announcing Travis today makes it any more likely to happen? Because if so we are in such different positions that I don't know if it's worth it to continue this discussion.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, jannybruck said:

Then why are promoters and booking agents scheduling more and more new stuff for the summer? Even a quick glance at the eFests sidebar with new announcements every day proves there's at least some confidence within the industry that these could happen or they wouldn't bother trying to book stuff in, spend on marketing, pay deposits etc at all. These aren't just regional festivals either, stuff like Pearl Jam only got announced a couple of weeks ago. Gorillaz just announced an indoor arena tour for the summer, which is even more of a stretch than an outdoor one. Stuff is moving.

 

1 hour ago, jannybruck said:

Moving or cancelling events is a pain in the arse. There's absolutely no way festivals and promoters would be actively booking in large acts and new festivals (see: Travis Scott at Rolling Loud, one of the biggest artists in the world, announced today) in the knowledge that it's being cancelled. It's unrealistic, costly, and pointless. And you just can't compare where we were in spring this year (when we barely knew anything about the virus or even how it's transmitted) to the next six months (where we now understand the virus, will have a vaccine, and have tools to assist with testing).

First post: Many interlocked reasons. First, Announcing stuff brings in at least some liquidity. Second, Keeping up the routine keeps cutomers optimistic. Lastly, and most importantly, admitting now that it is unlikely to go ahead with 2021, will have a devastating financial effect. Customers will demand refunds and investors will pull out. Confronted with an unsolvable situation shortly before the festival, the cancelation will be met with more understanding. Promoters will be able to show that they did everything possible (which, after all, is true) to go through with the festival but had no choice but to cancel.

Second post: This is normally true. I know of a tour that was announced last month that has dates set, whilst it is clear they won't actually be happening. There are replacement dates in 2022 already and the dates that have been announced are just an "extended presale". The costs attached are low, because the actual planning, marketing and physical preparations aren't happening until this time next year.

Link to post
Share on other sites

There’s a rumour on Reddit that the festival is having to let staff go and they’ve abandoned hopes for 2021. Could be a false rumour of course but looks vaguely credible. 
 

Anyone on here know someone who works for the festival?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   1 member




×
×
  • Create New...