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49 minutes ago, xxialac said:

The profits from the Euro tournament goes to the UEFA member associations.

Without ticket sales, the profit from the last tournament would have been cut by 50% 

Therefore the UEFA member associations will want bums on seats.

Do you have a source for that %? No doubt ticket sales are important (traditionally, in club football they represent 25-33% of total revenue), but half of the income sounds like an overstatement.

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They're crap. That's whats wrong with them.

To be frank, by the time we are allowed to have festivals again - be it June 2021, August 2021 or Summer 2022 - they can put my mother-in-law on stage for all I care... (ok, that's a lie, but you

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1 hour ago, Quadrophobia said:

Look, I hate to be the buzzkiller, but you are widely overestimating the efficacy of vaccines and rapid testing.

The vaccine will slow down the spread, which is nice, but to effectively curb the spread, one person must not infect more than one other person, which means that 2/3 of attendees would have to be vaccinated by the start of the festival. Not happening.

Rapid Tests could be an auxiliary measure but: 1. They are expensive 2. They are scarce 3. They had to be carried out every day for every attendee, bc people may have caught the virus in the meantime 4. They cannot detect an infection that has just happened 5. They are faulty. Rapid Testing would be an immense cost and logistics burden and it is highly unlikely a festival that just lost tons of money can stem that.

Lastly and most importantly: Organizers have to be absolutely sure by early January that all these measures will be accessible and effective. That is just more than two months from now. To plan a festival with worldwide acts and audience under such conditions is close to impossible.
 

So curb your enthusiasm.

This sounds really reasonable, except the timings. I believe organizers might be able to wait around t-minus 90 days before calling off a festival. 

 

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41 minutes ago, MagneticField85 said:

Do you have a source for that %? No doubt ticket sales are important (traditionally, in club football they represent 25-33% of total revenue), but half of the income sounds like an overstatement.

I didn't write half of the income, I wrote half of the profit.

And the UEFA members are only interested in the profit as that's what they take (the numbers are in the public domain incidentally).

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4 hours ago, Andrej said:

Euro 2021 will happen, and they dont depend that much on ticket sales / people in the stadium. TV rights / advertising money is the biggest thing, and they can do it with 0 people in the stadium (like NBA, or most of baseball etc), or they can do it with limited capacity, like 20% of stadiums full (like currently most of American football season).

Most of that doesnt apply for music festivals, as they can only operate with 100% full capacity. And I really cant see how can anyone fill their fields, stadiums, arenas etc up to 100% capacity next June.

 

Agree, festivals and Euro aren't the same thing, they can be hold even without public

 

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2 hours ago, MagneticField85 said:

This sounds really reasonable, except the timings. I believe organizers might be able to wait around t-minus 90 days before calling off a festival. 

 

It's not just their decision. Primavera is just one festival for these bands, especially the headliners, and they have other dates organised in a tour. If enough bands decide their tours can't happen, the festival can't happen, regardless of what the organisers might want.

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June 2021: not happening 

Late August 2021: it would be a miracle but I can still see this happening. 

Cancellation: most likely. 

So what we are left speculating on is what will happen with our tickets, this lineup (will it be repurposed the following year again?) and ultimately the festival itself? Can it survive another cancellation? Will they start again the following year, but with smaller acts? 

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If there is no summer 2021 festival season, I really doubt most of the festivals can survive. Have in mind that in that scenario, most of them made income summer 2019, and will be without income until summer 2022 !? Thats really really hard. The ones that do survive, I also dont think they will repeat line ups from 2020. That would be absurd, time hasnt stopped, new music gets released, so its OK to postpone from one year, 2020 to 2021, but then again to postpone everything identical to 2022 - dont think so. Most of them will want to start fresh, with new line ups. But this is all just pure speculating. 

 

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It's still very much up in air but I'd say most likely scenario is a) festivals delayed to end of next Summer, next likely is b) spring/early summer festivals happen on time thanks to excellent on-demand testing regimes and some level of vaccination but with much changed lineups (no North American acts or acts that lose their nerve and pull their tour), followed by c) doomsday scenario of no festivals in 2021 and most festivals going into administration. Still very optimistic for first or second of these.

 

 

Edited by xxialac
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I think we all need to remember that local governments will absolutely want these to happen too. Particularly for European cities that rely heavily on tourism like Barcelona, it's completely disastrous to have two consecutive summers without big ticket tourist events like Primavera. There's huge knock-on effects on hospitality, hotels, the local economy etc etc even from a weekend's worth of festivalgoers.

I think by spring, once the vaccine's started making its way around and things are going a bit more 'outdoors' again, we'll be seeing a big push to try and get these sorts of events going again using whatever tools available.

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On 10/20/2020 at 7:59 PM, Andrej said:

If there is no summer 2021 festival season, I really doubt most of the festivals can survive. Have in mind that in that scenario, most of them made income summer 2019, and will be without income until summer 2022 !? Thats really really hard. The ones that do survive, I also dont think they will repeat line ups from 2020. That would be absurd, time hasnt stopped, new music gets released, so its OK to postpone from one year, 2020 to 2021, but then again to postpone everything identical to 2022 - dont think so. Most of them will want to start fresh, with new line ups. But this is all just pure speculating. 

 

Strongly disagree on the repetition part. The bands originally billed for 2020 and 2021 need to go through with their tours, because there is huge sums attached. That forces other acts (especially bigger ones) to postpone their yet unannounced tours, because too many touring bands mean too much competition for scarce resources and tours will not make profit. Music released during this time might cough up some new acts, but touring is the actual enginge of the music machine.

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News from another timeline, since nobody asked: the new gorillaz is actually good and I am hoping for a last minute Phoebe Bridgers addition to the day the National are playing. ok, not happening but how could PS miss such a big indie breakthrough with her? :(

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2 minutes ago, whos3000 said:

News from another timeline, since nobody asked: the new gorillaz is actually good and I am hoping for a last minute Phoebe Bridgers addition to the day the National are playing. ok, not happening but how could PS miss such a big indie breakthrough with her? :(

Shes simply not touring that time.
 

Also it is useless to speculate about additions for 2021. Right now, noone is making any new plans for tours. I can only stress this once more - all the insiders i have talked to see it as extremely unlikely 2021 festivals will go ahead. We will have to get accustomed to the thought that we'll have to wait til 2022 for PS

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1 hour ago, Quadrophobia said:

Also it is useless to speculate about additions for 2021. Right now, noone is making any new plans for tours. I can only stress this once more - all the insiders i have talked to see it as extremely unlikely 2021 festivals will go ahead. We will have to get accustomed to the thought that we'll have to wait til 2022 for PS

Eh? Let people speculate if they want. It's not cancelled yet, and anyone sure that it isn't happening surely wouldn't waste their time in here.

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3 hours ago, Quadrophobia said:

Shes simply not touring that time.
 

Also it is useless to speculate about additions for 2021. Right now, noone is making any new plans for tours. I can only stress this once more - all the insiders i have talked to see it as extremely unlikely 2021 festivals will go ahead. We will have to get accustomed to the thought that we'll have to wait til 2022 for PS

What's the latest notice a mini European tour could be arranged for a Europe act, given the unusual set of circumstances? They want to eat, right? This is surely equally devastating for the acts too...

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1 hour ago, Nesser said:

Government just passed a curfew from 11pm to 6am until April

That's not right. It's a state of emergency until May but the curfew can be lifted beforehand. Or things made more severe e.g. confinements.

 

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Curfew is mandatory since today until further notice. Of course can be lifted before, but given that is being introduced through the state of alarm and they want to extend it until May 9th the curfew can still apply until then.

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10 minutes ago, Nesser said:

Curfew is mandatory since today until further notice. Of course can be lifted before, but given that is being introduced through the state of alarm and they want to extend it until May 9th the curfew can still apply until then.

My point was it wasn't the curfew that was linked to May but the state of emergency.

The reason for long period is they don't want to have to renew the state of emergency all through winter.

The curfew almost certainly won't last for 6 months - as we know the virus is up and down.

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