What would you do if mass events were allowed without a vaccine?

[gigpusher]

1 minute ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

@Toilet Duck is the one for this, but it’s highly likely it that’s the case you’ll still get immunity for a period of time, at least a year maybe longer which is pretty much how it works with flu. That’s still a great help and for anyone who has had it there should be a vaccine long before their immunity wears off. At the very least there will be some help in the future as and when you get it again, again just like with flu.

With the virus having been around for virtually 6 months, if you didn’t get any sort of immunity we’d be getting massive waves of people being reinfected again now, but we aren’t. There is the odd story here or there but it’s either that they hadn’t fully eradicated the virus anyway, or related to inaccurate tests. 

Good to know although as the testing protocols have been so poor until we get an antibody test I suspect there'll be lots who think they've had it who haven't and vice versa. One of my friends has been referred hospital twice. Has had symptoms for going on for 3 weeks now. Has been told he likely has it. Has had chest x-rays, been given inhalers etc, was put on the Corona ward briefly but still hasn't actually been tested. Beggars belief really! 

[giantkatestacks]

16 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Some will be sure they have had it some won’t the ones with milder symptoms probably not ... untill we get a reliable antibody test ... 

Interestingly and obviously anecdotally I don't know anyone who may have had it with milder symptoms that could have been 'just' a cold or flu or asthma etc and is therefore unsure. I know people like me who almost certainly had it because of my work cluster and the symptoms. Locally there are acquaintances who have had it badly enough to have been hospitalised but otherwise everyone is asymptomatic, including everyone else in my household - thats what makes it so dangerous. 

[gigpusher]

3 minutes ago, giantkatestacks said:

Interestingly and obviously anecdotally I don't know anyone who may have had it with milder symptoms that could have been 'just' a cold or flu or asthma etc and is therefore unsure. I know people like me who almost certainly had it because of my work cluster and the symptoms. Locally there are acquaintances who have had it badly enough to have been hospitalised but otherwise everyone is asymptomatic, including everyone else in my household - thats what makes it so dangerous. 

If it's been around as some newspapers are saying it has been now then I think it's possible I had it. I had what I would describe as not even a bad cold, temperature and sore throat for a few days and the only weird thing was I had a dry cough (not like me at all I am prone to chest infections and usually get chesty coughs) and it lasted ages like from November until early Feb. Now it could just have been another virus but I never felt particularly unwell just got sick to death of a bloody irritating dry cough. Without a test I would never know if it was it or not. I suspect it wasn't but as soon as we heard about it my husband and I said the dry cough sounded exactly like what I had. 

[Toilet Duck]

1 hour ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

@Toilet Duck is the one for this, but it’s highly likely it that’s the case you’ll still get immunity for a period of time, at least a year maybe longer which is pretty much how it works with flu. That’s still a great help and for anyone who has had it there should be a vaccine long before their immunity wears off. At the very least there will be some help in the future as and when you get it again, again just like with flu.

With the virus having been around for virtually 6 months, if you didn’t get any sort of immunity we’d be getting massive waves of people being reinfected again now, but we aren’t. There is the odd story here or there but it’s either that they hadn’t fully eradicated the virus anyway, or related to inaccurate tests. 

I haven't been through the entire thread, so it's probably been mentioned, but when mass gatherings start up again, it'll be fairly safe to attend. Until then, they won't happen, long and short of it! In terms of immunity, it certainly looks like at least transient immunity occurs and hopefully we'll have a vaccine by the time it starts to wane (the Oxford group are actually a lot further on than was originally reported, having tested a MERS vaccine over a year ago...this is one of the re-purposed approaches that would speed things up that I mentioned in the other thread, so I'm tentatively optimistic about their chances...anything could happen of course!). 

 

[efcfanwirral]

55 minutes ago, gigpusher said:

If it's been around as some newspapers are saying it has been now then I think it's possible I had it. I had what I would describe as not even a bad cold, temperature and sore throat for a few days and the only weird thing was I had a dry cough (not like me at all I am prone to chest infections and usually get chesty coughs) and it lasted ages like from November until early Feb. Now it could just have been another virus but I never felt particularly unwell just got sick to death of a bloody irritating dry cough. Without a test I would never know if it was it or not. I suspect it wasn't but as soon as we heard about it my husband and I said the dry cough sounded exactly like what I had. 

I was pretty similar though the cough only lasted a month, from early December (just after a week trip to Singapore...) to just after New Year. The weird thing was I did feel short of breath a few times in the middle of that which is very new to me and it scared me on a couple of occasions, but it didnt last too long each time.

The only thing that makes me think it's unlikely is that I live with my parents, both 60+, my mum regularly cooks meals for my 84 year old Grandad and my girlfriend has mild asthma so you'd think it's likely things would've gone worse. 

[stt11]

I voted for the second option. But I'm still a volunteer steward for Boomtown and Reading. I'm hoping, if they do put they're festivals on, they'll have loads of Covid safety precautions in place.

I haven't done much since lockdown began. So it would be somewhere to go. But only if it's possible to socially distance appropriately and use a lot of disinfectant.🤠

[stuartbert two hats]

11 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

I haven't been through the entire thread, so it's probably been mentioned, but when mass gatherings start up again, it'll be fairly safe to attend. Until then, they won't happen, long and short of it! In terms of immunity, it certainly looks like at least transient immunity occurs and hopefully we'll have a vaccine by the time it starts to wane (the Oxford group are actually a lot further on than was originally reported, having tested a MERS vaccine over a year ago...this is one of the re-purposed approaches that would speed things up that I mentioned in the other thread, so I'm tentatively optimistic about their chances...anything could happen of course!). 

 

If you had to place a bet on when mass vaccinations start (not necessarily all of us being vaccinated) , when would you go for?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

10 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

I was pretty similar though the cough only lasted a month, from early December (just after a week trip to Singapore...) to just after New Year. The weird thing was I did feel short of breath a few times in the middle of that which is very new to me and it scared me on a couple of occasions, but it didnt last too long each time.

The only thing that makes me think it's unlikely is that I live with my parents, both 60+, my mum regularly cooks meals for my 84 year old Grandad and my girlfriend has mild asthma so you'd think it's likely things would've gone worse. 

There are plenty of examples of older people who have had it and people with underlying conditions and still been asymptomatic. My mum is adamant she’s had it. She had the flu jab but came down with relatively mild corona like symptoms for a week or so. Her and my dad are both in their seventies and my dad has underlying heart issues, but he didn’t get anything, whatever it was.

Famously there were a couple of ‘super spreaders’ who caught it on a plane and then went all round Vietnam spreading it everywhere. They were both in their late sixties and neither had a clue they had it until they were tracked down and tested.

The mortality rate for people above 80 is around 10%, and the highest mortality rate for people with comorbidities is amongst those with pre existing cardiovascular issues and that is also around 10%.

What I’m trying to say is despite how potentially serious it is and can be, there is still a much higher probability that it’s asymptomatic or mild amongst any group, old or young.

One of the best hopes we’ve got is that it was circulating much earlier, however likely or unlikely that is.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, stt11 said:

I voted for the second option. But I'm still a volunteer steward for Boomtown and Reading. I'm hoping, if they do put they're festivals on, they'll have loads of Covid safety precautions in place.

I haven't done much since lockdown began. So it would be somewhere to go. But only if it's possible to socially distance appropriately and use a lot of disinfectant.🤠

Perhaps the bars might sell an alcohol / disinfectant cocktail ...

[gigpusher]

6 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

I was pretty similar though the cough only lasted a month, from early December (just after a week trip to Singapore...) to just after New Year. The weird thing was I did feel short of breath a few times in the middle of that which is very new to me and it scared me on a couple of occasions, but it didnt last too long each time.

The only thing that makes me think it's unlikely is that I live with my parents, both 60+, my mum regularly cooks meals for my 84 year old Grandad and my girlfriend has mild asthma so you'd think it's likely things would've gone worse. 

Yes that's what I mean they were probably just other viruses that can be around in the Winter time. I know 2 people who have had tests and  both came back negative. One was my friend's husband and she says he never complains of being sick and he had most of the symptoms but turns out it must just have been man flu. It's unlikely here in the UK that they'll ever do an antibody test on everyone so guess we'll never really know. When I had my thing my husband got nothing. 

[priest17]

1 hour ago, giantkatestacks said:

I have had it so I would go. And yes I know we haven't been tested but it is pretty obvious if you have had it with symptoms. I'm amazed lot's of other people here haven't but I know that my view is very London-centric.

My flat mate had it and we live in a shoebox so I would be amazed if I didn't pick it up before he started showing symptoms. In the end after quarantining for 14 days (fuck me it was hard) I never showed any symptoms myself but figure I must have had it. Impossible to know without being tested though.

Obviously that doesn't put me in the home stretch or out coz I can still carry it round on my person and drop it off to other people without it bothering me. 

I'm jonesing to get back in the pub and I want the gigs in September to go ahead but I really want to enjoy them, not have everyone looking over their shoulder or be looked down on for doing these things. I'm somewhere between fuck it gimme a pint and desperately not wanting to be associated with the conspiracy fuckers. Lots of people telling me its fine to be locked in a tiny 2 bed flat with 2 other people on the 7th floor from the garden of their 2 story house. I'm following the rules to the letter at the moment but I can't promise I'll stand by if they change the rules.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

6 minutes ago, stt11 said:

I voted for the second option. But I'm still a volunteer steward for Boomtown and Reading. I'm hoping, if they do put they're festivals on, they'll have loads of Covid safety precautions in place.

I haven't done much since lockdown began. So it would be somewhere to go. But only if it's possible to socially distance appropriately and use a lot of disinfectant.🤠

I don’t want to piss in your parade (I want festivals to go ahead as much as possible) but to me festivals going ahead with loads of Covid safety precautions seems like an oxymoron. We have to go to the supermarket, there is no choice in that. But it’s a means to an end so the measures in place don’t really have an impact, we queue, we go in and we get out. Pubs and restaurants are open all year round, if they stay shut indefinitely there won’t be any left, not to mention the same extra unemployment it would create with all their staff out of Jobs, so they could conceivably open with certain restrictions in place.

Festivals are one off events and are completely non essential. Social distancing measures and extra hygiene steps at a festival would just be like trying to plug holes in a leaking bucket. They would be pretty ineffective in the grand scheme of things, whatever you do in one place would be undone in another. The easier solution is that they just don’t happen, and they only happen when extra measures aren’t needed full stop.

[stt11]

11 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Perhaps the bars might sell an alcohol / disinfectant cocktail ...

They should all nip down from Oxford!! and give us the trial vaccination beforehand!! That would be well handy!!!🙂

[clarkete]

Too many unanswered questions regarding immunity for many of the decisions people seem to be making...

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-52446965 

Edited April 29, 2020 by clarkete

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

8 minutes ago, Cream Soda said:

Yep, like the cruise ships where there were confirmed cases, would imagine many of those were older and many of those who tested positive were asymptomatic.  Assume there were also other positive cases who were not tested.

Yes, on the diamond princess there were around 630 cases, just over half the cases were asymptomatic and 480 of the 630 cases were people aged 60 and over. And that’s purely looking at asymptomatic cases and not also relatively mild ones.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[Toilet Duck]

18 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

If you had to place a bet on when mass vaccinations start (not necessarily all of us being vaccinated) , when would you go for?

Depends, if the Oxford vaccine works, then I'd say they will be vaccinating at risk groups by the end of the year into next spring. If that one doesn't work, then the others are a good bit behind (The GSK/Sanofi one is a safe enough bet, traditional vaccine that is less risky, but we'll be lucky to see that one before next summer/second half of 2021...I'd expect people will end up getting different vaccines in order to meet demand). The good thing about the Oxford vaccine is that they vaccinated people with a variant of it last year and no adverse effects seem to be noted, so it looks safe, just don't know if it works (works in monkeys by the looks of it though, but early days!). 

[zahidf]

Even if the oxford vaccine didn't work, it should be overall helpful as it may be the case that elements of the research can be adapted to the final vaccine is my reading?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

5 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Depends, if the Oxford vaccine works, then I'd say they will be vaccinating at risk groups by the end of the year into next spring. If that one doesn't work, then the others are a good bit behind (The GSK/Sanofi one is a safe enough bet, traditional vaccine that is less risky, but we'll be lucky to see that one before next summer/second half of 2021...I'd expect people will end up getting different vaccines in order to meet demand). The good thing about the Oxford vaccine is that they vaccinated people with a variant of it last year and no adverse effects seem to be noted, so it looks safe, just don't know if it works (works in monkeys by the looks of it though, but early days!). 

If the Oxford vaccine does work, how do you suppose distribution would work? I don’t mean that from a selfish point of view but I’ve heard Trump mention it more than once so I’d imagine he’d be desperate to get his hands on it at all costs. Would it be relatively easy to pass the info to big pharmas worldwide to mass produce in their relevant countries?

[jparx]

Do people think that once a vaccine starts to be rolled out to the most at risk (say, for arguments sake, an optimistic timeline of October/November), society will be opened up quite quickly? With the view that now we can shield the most vulnerable, letting healthy younger people go about "normal" life will be fairly low risk and even help develop immunity in society (if it's shown that the immunity does indeed last).

[Old_Johno]

35 minutes ago, stt11 said:

I voted for the second option. But I'm still a volunteer steward for Boomtown and Reading. I'm hoping, if they do put they're festivals on, they'll have loads of Covid safety precautions in place.

I haven't done much since lockdown began. So it would be somewhere to go. But only if it's possible to socially distance appropriately and use a lot of disinfectant.🤠

Boomtown and Reading especially do have pretty young crowds generally speaking, risk to the participants is low, but everyone going back to their families is the true risk. Having said that as time goes on im leaning more and more to if you’re going to get it you’re going to get it, and it’s upto personal responsibility. I certainly wouldn’t visit my mum/ grandparents for 2 weeks after a festival. 

At the moment my personal guesstimate of going ahead is 10% for Boomtown and maybe 15% for Shambala (same weekend as Reading) 

[stuartbert two hats]

So it's really looking touch and go for Glasto 2021!

[Toilet Duck]

Just now, zahidf said:

Even if the oxford vaccine didn't work, it should be overall helpful as it may be the case that elements of the research can be adapted to the final vaccine is my reading?

Oh of course. They could get lucky and hit a home run first time up, if not, any data from the trial will inform the next stage. GSK and Sanofi are making a more traditional vaccine based on how they produce flu ones that are currently in use. GSK has an additional bit that acts as a booster to the immune response that is being combined with it so they only need small doses per inoculation. It's a variation of a vaccine that is already licensed, so that speeds things up a bit (5-8 years down to about 18 months). 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

This article kind of answered the bit about productions and distribution:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/04/27/world/europe/coronavirus-vaccine-update-oxford.amp.html

No real surprise North America is the only place they haven’t reached agreement with a manufacturer yet 

[Toilet Duck]

5 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

If the Oxford vaccine does work, how do you suppose distribution would work? I don’t mean that from a selfish point of view but I’ve heard Trump mention it more than once so I’d imagine he’d be desperate to get his hands on it at all costs. Would it be relatively easy to pass the info to big pharmas worldwide to mass produce in their relevant countries?

The Oxford group need partners to make more of it, so it would be entirely probable that it will be licensed to other Pharma/Biotech companies to make more of it.  However, once these things get out of the lab and into industry, they take on a life of their own. I've seen it with all sorts of discoveries that have been translated. Generally, the scientists go back to doing what they do and discover more things, the business end of it is very different to what we are used to!

[Toilet Duck]

17 minutes ago, jparx said:

Do people think that once a vaccine starts to be rolled out to the most at risk (say, for arguments sake, an optimistic timeline of October/November), society will be opened up quite quickly? With the view that now we can shield the most vulnerable, letting healthy younger people go about "normal" life will be fairly low risk and even help develop immunity in society (if it's shown that the immunity does indeed last).

That's pretty much how we deal with flu and is the most likely scenario. If immunity doesn't last, low risk individuals will just get it from time to time (like they get flu from time to time...actual flu isn't much fun, but you've probably only had it once or twice in your lifetime even though it's circulating constantly). I get a flu shot every year, not to protect myself, but I'm in regular contact with cancer patients and they can't afford to catch it from me, so I haven't had a real flu in years, but it knocks you out when you do catch it even as a relatively young healthy person!