When will this shit end?

[squirrelarmy]

4 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Can anyone explain what this K number means? 

It’s how many lines you can have before the only word you can say is wibble

[Homer]

48 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yeah, I like watching it...although I've usually no idea what's going on. Just like watching men cycling up hills.

I wonder if there will be crowds watching this year?

If anyone is interested in the TDF then read this book. I have no interest at all really but I found it fascinating. Teammate of Lance Armstrong who blew the whistle on all the crazy shizzle they did (crossing borders overnight to have full blood transfusions, that kind of thing).

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Secret-Race-Inside-Cover-ups-Winning/dp/055216917X

[Fuzzy Afro]

Googled and found that the K number is basically a measure of how widespread the transmission is from carrier to carrier. A lot of scientists are thinking that most people who get covid don’t spread it at all, either because they aren’t contagious, or they know they have it so they self-isolate. Basically a small minority of carriers become superspreaders and transmit to a lot of people.

 

So say you have 20 carriers, 19 might not spread it at all but the 20th is a superspreader and transmits it to 20 people. The R is technically 1, but the K number is very low. 

[Homer]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Having children is hard fucking work and can be very stressful...if people were told this more then maybe they would have less of them.

I know so many people who have told 'I love my kids... but if I had my time again...'

Maybe they just say that to me because I don't have any kids though. (Also, I sit there slagging off their kids.)

[Fuzzy Afro]

The process of raising kids sounds shite, but having grown up children when you’re in your 50’s and 60’s sounds class I reckon 

[steviewevie]

Just now, Homer said:

I know so many people who have told 'I love my kids... but if I had my time again...'

Maybe they just say that to me because I don't have any kids though. (Also, I sit there slagging off their kids.)

well, we only had one...and obviously you have good days and bad days...like with everything. But, it is all consuming sometimes. The sweet spot is definitely between about 7 and 10...before and after those ages are challenging for very different reasons. The last few years have been real hard, all sorts of mental health problems that seem to affect kids more and more these days.

[steviewevie]

Just now, Fuzzy Afro said:

The process of raising kids sounds shite, but having grown up children when you’re in your 50’s and 60’s sounds class I reckon 

looking after their kids?

[Fuzzy Afro]

Just now, steviewevie said:

looking after their kids?

Yes, I’d love to have grandchildren to spoil. That’s another reason to have 3 kids actually, minimise the risk that all of them won’t want kids. With only 2, that risk seems pretty high. 

[Wellyboot]

I couldn't think of anything worse than having kids.

Get fat(ter) for 9 month, chances of spewing loads and feeling rotten the whole time are extremely high and I hate being sick. Then its gotta get out of you.. and there's no chance I'm pushing it so then you're left with a massive scar. THEN its your responsibility F O R E V E R

It sounds bloody awful. But thats just me

[Toilet Duck]

17 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yeah...and then there's this other letter...K.

And actually, that might be the most important descriptor of this virus of all! It basically describes the super-spreading capacity of the virus and the fact that R is being driven by a small percentage of cases (possibly even as low as 10% or so). Now as we see outbreaks in certain circumstances and not others, it shows us exactly how we control this (until there a simple, cheap solution to mass testing, concentrate testing on high-risk super spreading events basically). Control those and much of the capacity of the virus to seep back into the community is lost, R will stay well below 1 and case numbers will dwindle. They've finally admitted this in Ireland (after a bunch of spikes caused by workplace super-spreading events that then led to family clusters) and are now doing regular blanket testing at the types places where outbreaks have been occurring (rather than ramping up the test and trace system when a case pops up, only to find that half the factory is asymptomatically infected and have been casually strolling around town). I know I've been banging on about advance testing, but it's the smart way of managing this until a vaccine/cure comes along.

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Yes, I’d love to have grandchildren to spoil. That’s another reason to have 3 kids actually, minimise the risk that all of them won’t want kids. With only 2, that risk seems pretty high. 

Man, once my kid leaves home I never want to see another child again.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

And actually, that might be the most important descriptor of this virus of all! It basically describes the super-spreading capacity of the virus and the fact that R is being driven by a small percentage of cases (possibly even as low as 10% or so). Now as we see outbreaks in certain circumstances and not others, it shows us exactly how we control this (until there a simple, cheap solution to mass testing, concentrate testing on high-risk super spreading events basically). Control those and much of the capacity of the virus to seep back into the community is lost, R will stay well below 1 and case numbers will dwindle. They've finally admitted this in Ireland (after a bunch of spikes caused by workplace super-spreading events that then led to family clusters) and are now doing regular blanket testing at the types places where outbreaks have been occurring (rather than ramping up the test and trace system when a case pops up, only to find that half the factory is asymptomatically infected and have been casually strolling around town). I know I've been banging on about advance testing, but it's the smart way of managing this until a vaccine/cure comes along.

so...what's your take on this latest R estimate from Sage here in UK?

[SwedgeAntilles]

I'm already veggie and kids seem annoying so I'll take flights please, Bob.

[Waterdeep]

A mutation in Singapore causing milder infections

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-singapore-research/singapore-scientists-find-coronavirus-variant-with-milder-infections-idUKKBN25H0O1

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Waterdeep said:

A mutation in Singapore causing milder infections

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-singapore-research/singapore-scientists-find-coronavirus-variant-with-milder-infections-idUKKBN25H0O1

let's get that over here!

[Zoo Music Girl]

11 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

The process of raising kids sounds shite, but having grown up children when you’re in your 50’s and 60’s sounds class I reckon 

And yet you want three?

[Quark]

5 minutes ago, SwedgeAntilles said:

I'm already veggie and kids seem annoying so I'll take flights please, Bob.

Seconded!

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

And yet you want three?

to be fair...some kids are easier than others...some kid's mothers, are easier than other kid's mothers...and some people are just better parents too. I shouldn't be so negative, some parts of it are great...watching them grow, get into stuff...kid has been to a few concerts so she has experienced that thing that people will reminice about one day through their masks. And she was a really cute toddler (stubborn as fuck too),.

[Fuzzy Afro]

6 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

And yet you want three?

Yeah, it’ll be fun taking them on holidays to Disney etc. And they look cute. 

[Zoo Music Girl]

9 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

to be fair...some kids are easier than others...some kid's mothers, are easier than other kid's mothers...and some people are just better parents too. I shouldn't be so negative, some parts of it are great...watching them grow, get into stuff...kid has been to a few concerts so she has experienced that thing that people will reminice about one day through their masks. And she was a really cute toddler (stubborn as fuck too),.

Oh yeah completely. I love my friends' kids and am very on the fence about them myself as I've no doubts about how hard it is. Just baffled at someone planning to do something three times that they think looks shite in the first place.

[Quark]

2 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Just baffled at someone planning to do something three times that they think looks shite in the first place.

I dunno, we've all gone back to Glastonbury after a muddy one!

[Toilet Duck]

11 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

so...what's your take on this latest R estimate from Sage here in UK?

It's not overly accurate when it's driven by large clusters (hence why K is really important). At the moment, I'm looking at the numbers of community transmissions, that's the best indicator of what your individual risk of picking it up is when out and about. If they stay low, then the virus is still there, but if we keep a lid on super-spreading events then it's under control. There's a lot of finger pointing at younger individuals at the moment, but honestly, I haven't seen many major outbreaks occurring as a result of any given activity (though it's easy to point at stuff on social media where people appear to be ignoring the advice, but really, I don't think it's behind the increase in cases we've seen over the last while). Probably a more accurate description of what's happening is that cases in younger folk are being driven by those who work in roles where they can't work from home and are placed in high-risk environments by their employers. 

[Ozanne]

29 minutes ago, Wellyboot said:

I couldn't think of anything worse than having kids.

Get fat(ter) for 9 month, chances of spewing loads and feeling rotten the whole time are extremely high and I hate being sick. Then its gotta get out of you.. and there's no chance I'm pushing it so then you're left with a massive scar. THEN its your responsibility F O R E V E R

It sounds bloody awful. But thats just me

Nieces and Nephews are the answer, best of both worlds. You get the sweetness, playtime and fun but they can back to the parent for serious stuff!

[Fuzzy Afro]

21 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Oh yeah completely. I love my friends' kids and am very on the fence about them myself as I've no doubts about how hard it is. Just baffled at someone planning to do something three times that they think looks shite in the first place.

Probably because I put more weight on the joys of it than the downside of having to change nappies 

[Zoo Music Girl]

4 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Probably because I put more weight on the joys of it than the downside of having to change nappies 

Well you were the one who said it sounded shite!