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When will this shit end?

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2 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Not sure that’s true, yet. Italy hit 971 deaths on 28/03. I can’t reconcile how Italy will hit 20k deaths and well hit 60k.

Oh, I thought you were just questioning whether we would have it worse than Italy at all - three times does seem on the high side, I agree - but that's the thing with exponential numbers - you only have to overshoot by a little bit to have many X times the deaths. They're just not intuitive how big the end results can be from relatively small differences.

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Considering the population density of the uk & more specifically England compared to a lot of Europe, I'd expect our fatality rates to be atleast double that of Italy. 

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11 hours ago, DeanoL said:

The NHS are working brilliantly to help him.

Because it's the NHS who will help people, not victims "fighting".

Not strictly true. There are plenty of studies that show the attitude of the patient is important. I realise the country is on a mission to deify anyone who works for the NHS but they basically keep people alive whilst the body fights the disease.

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10'clock news reports Boris is sitting up in bed.........Mrs Lycra quips "On a respiratory unit only the dead are allowed to lie down"   

Made me smile 

Edited by Lycra

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7 minutes ago, priest17 said:

Wow

 

Absolutely nailed it.  I was also impressed by her last week, when asking why the dismal lack of testing, and faced with some public health knob's trumpian statement that the time to question the government's actions is not now but after the crisis is over.  She made the point very simply that the government must be held to account now. 

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12 hours ago, oxygentleman said:

Considering the population density of the uk & more specifically England compared to a lot of Europe, I'd expect our fatality rates to be atleast double that of Italy. 

Sorry but that’s rubbish. Germany has a higher population density than Italy, so will they have a higher death toll? Belgium and the Netherlands have the highest population densities in Europe, so will they get hit hardest? The reason Italy had been hit harder in the first place is they have an older population (see average age of positive test in Germany vs Italy) It is also far more common in Italy for many generations to live under one roof which will greatly aid transmission and put an older population further at risk. This does not happen in the U.K., or Germany for that matter.

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton

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12 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Belgium and the Netherlands have the highest population densities in Europe

He mentioned specifically England - which has a higher population density than those.

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Just now, Neil said:

He mentioned specifically England - which has a higher population density than those.

Fair enough, but it’s by no means anywhere near the most important determinant for who gets hit hardest. By that logic it would be Germany given the size of their population and population density compared to Italy.

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Article here suggests that virus is mainly passed on at mass events,not supermarkets etc.

OK, may seem obvious but doesn't bode well for festivals.But for how long?......

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/the-cluster-effect-how-social-gatherings-were-rocket-fuel-for-coronavirus

One pattern we are seeing across the globe is that wherever there was singing and dancing, the virus spread more rapidly,” said Prof Hendrik

 

Edited by Sawdusty Surfer

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28 minutes ago, Sawdusty Surfer said:

Article here suggests that virus is mainly passed on at mass events,not supermarkets etc.

OK, may seem obvious but doesn't bode well for festivals.But for how long?......

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/the-cluster-effect-how-social-gatherings-were-rocket-fuel-for-coronavirus

One pattern we are seeing across the globe is that wherever there was singing and dancing, the virus spread more rapidly,” said Prof Hendrik

 

I think that’s just stating the obvious really. It’s easy to pinpoint the spread of a virus to one event by virtue of the fact that you can place everyone there at a specific time. Its far more difficult if not impossible to plot how an infected person would spread the virus going about their business in daily life, infecting the odd person here or there, but cumulatively infecting the same amount of people they would at an event. They also make a big thing of people kissing, hugging, holding hands etc. That’s more likely to happen at a festival, but that’s behavioural, and something that can and will be adjusted post Covid.

Under normal circumstances there is no doubt that events will aid the spread of the virus, but on their own they will make next to no difference if life just continues as normal, but the reality is it won’t for now. Social distancing has to be all encompassing, so events are likely to be affected for as long as everything else is affected.

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton

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The numbers at the moment are concerning but imagine what they would look like if we were not under lockdown at all. If this is a flattening of the curve, imagine what it would of looked like if it was ‘unflattened’.

This is why the logic of “deaths are going down slightly we are nearly out of it” isn’t right. Numbers are steadying in mainland Europe in lockdown, but those numbers will go back up if people are let back into daily life too quickly.

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2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

The numbers at the moment are concerning but imagine what they would look like if we were not under lockdown at all. If this is a flattening of the curve, imagine what it would of looked like if it was ‘unflattened’.

This is why the logic of “deaths are going down slightly we are nearly out of it” isn’t right. Numbers are steadying in mainland Europe in lockdown, but those numbers will go back up if people are let back into daily life too quickly.

We know exactly what it would look like from the original Imperial college report (potentially 500k deaths) which is why it’s not happening.
 

Getting numbers down to relatively low levels still gives us options for exiting the current situation, albeit not just returning to completely normal life as before.

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I think some form of timetable would be helpful, even if it was SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  Just what the stages of opening up will be e.t.c.

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3 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

This weekend will be the biggest test for the British Public I think.

Its not looking good if this was last weekend

https://www.itv.com/news/granada/2020-04-09/manchester-personalities-urge-public-to-stay-home-over-easter-weekend/

Thats ridiculous. But yeah, people will lose patience. Initial lockdown in Ireland expires on Sunday. Its obviously going to be extended, probably today. 

Last night, people heading south, holiday homes etc. Weather looks good for the weekend too. 

 

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1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Yes, please.  Wow.  I am now officially allowed to stay healthy myself.

 

 

Quote

 

 

Edited by WhoamI?

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11 hours ago, priest17 said:

Wow

 

She got it spot on. I hope Boris gets well (like I would any human)  but he comes under the arrogant and stupid who thinks that being rich and powerful makes you immune. His press conferences treating it all as a bit of a joke and some of his comments have undoubtedly been part of the reason why it took so long for it to be taken seriously and has certainly mean our loss of life has been and will be greater than those countries like New Zealand who have treated it seriously and heeded expert advice from the beginning.  A colleague and I have been saying for weeks that the lax attitude of the government is in part because those who will suffer are poorer people  and so are therefore seen as more expendable by governments. 

Every aspect of how we manage this crisis puts poorer people at more risk from their jobs (which are seen as essential and can't be done from home) to the fact that they need to find the cheaper products in supermarkets and so are forced to join the scrums when shops open. 

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18 minutes ago, gigpusher said:

She got it spot on. I hope Boris gets well (like I would any human)  but he comes under the arrogant and stupid who thinks that being rich and powerful makes you immune. His press conferences treating it all as a bit of a joke and some of his comments have undoubtedly been part of the reason why it took so long for it to be taken seriously and has certainly mean our loss of life has been and will be greater than those countries like New Zealand who have treated it seriously and heeded expert advice from the beginning.  A colleague and I have been saying for weeks that the lax attitude of the government is in part because those who will suffer are poorer people  and so are therefore seen as more expendable by governments. 

Every aspect of how we manage this crisis puts poorer people at more risk from their jobs (which are seen as essential and can't be done from home) to the fact that they need to find the cheaper products in supermarkets and so are forced to join the scrums when shops open. 

To be fair, I think he has heeded expert advice all along hasn't he? It’s just that our experts might have been slightly different things to other experts. 

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1 hour ago, The Nal said:

Thats ridiculous. But yeah, people will lose patience. Initial lockdown in Ireland expires on Sunday. Its obviously going to be extended, probably today. 

Last night, people heading south, holiday homes etc. Weather looks good for the weekend too. 

 

 

no, it was because all vehicles were being routed into one lane for a checkpoint, as you can see by the cones.

 

 

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