When will this shit end?

[zahidf]

Just now, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

That’s a really bad graph, why go 200-500 but then 500-1000? 

Exponential and doubling figures (roughly)

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Just now, zahidf said:

Exponential and doubling figures (roughly)

And my other point I’ve just added, the 200-500 part on the graph is nearly twice as big as any other?

[Leyrulion]

13 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

That’s a really bad graph, why go 200-500 but then 500-1000? And why is 200-500 a bigger unit on the graph than any other unit?

It's a log graph. They're actually much better at representing exponential figures then linear graphs. He explains further down the thread why that particular type of graph.

 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

3 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

It's a log graph. They're actually much better at representing exponential figures then linear graphs. He explains further down the thread why that particular type of graph.

 

It doesn’t explain why 200-500 is twice as big as any other section 

[stuartbert two hats]

13 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

It doesn’t explain why 200-500 is twice as big as any other section 

It does. 200 and 500 are nice round numbers we can relate to, but they don't map nicely to the logarithmic scale, so that makes the gap between 200 and 500 unusually large.

Edit: to make it even, they should have gone from 200 to 400. But then they would have ended up at 800 next, followed by 1600 and (in a few days) 3200. Nowhere near as neat at 500, 1000, 2000 and (eventually) 4000.

Basically it's a way of adjusting the labelling of numbers into base 10.

Edited April 3, 2020 by stuartbert two hats

[stuartbert two hats]

10 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

It does. 200 and 500 are nice round numbers we can relate to, but they don't map nicely to the logarithmic scale, so that makes the gap between 200 and 500 unusually large.

Edit: to make it even, they should have gone from 200 to 400. But then they would have ended up at 800 next, followed by 1600 and (in a few days) 3200. Nowhere near as neat at 500, 1000, 2000 and (eventually) 4000.

Basically it's a way of adjusting the labelling of numbers into base 10.

Actually, in the coming days it's going to jump from 2000 to 5000 again to set up for 10000 and 20000 later.  Just as there was a larger gap between 20 and 50 too.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

29 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

It does. 200 and 500 are nice round numbers we can relate to, but they don't map nicely to the logarithmic scale, so that makes the gap between 200 and 500 unusually large.

Edit: to make it even, they should have gone from 200 to 400. But then they would have ended up at 800 next, followed by 1600 and (in a few days) 3200. Nowhere near as neat at 500, 1000, 2000 and (eventually) 4000.

Basically it's a way of adjusting the labelling of numbers into base 10.

Ok, I ask purely because the cynic in me looks at this particular chart which accentuates the phase we’re currently in comparatively to the phase Italy and Spain are currently, in terms of daily numbers of deaths. And this is with us having initiated lockdown with less than half the deaths Italy had when they did (despite all the protests we sat on our hands, etc) and all modelling suggests we won’t get anywhere near the total deaths that will be seen in Italy and Spain. Also, when I look through all the other charts the author has posted on the tweet, to me every single one makes our situation here look more positive in comparison to Italy and Spain than this particular tweet does.

Edit as an example cases in cumulative form paints a very different story:

 

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[stuartbert two hats]

7 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Ok, I ask purely because the cynic in me looks at this particular chart which accentuates the phase we’re currently in comparatively to the phase Italy and Spain are currently, in terms of daily numbers of deaths. And this is with us having initiated lockdown with less than half the deaths Italy had when they did (despite all the protests we sat on our hands, etc) and all modelling suggests we won’t get anywhere near the total deaths that will be seen in Italy and Spain. Also, when I look through all the other charts the author has posted on the tweet, to me every single one makes our situation here look more positive in comparison to Italy and Spain than this particular tweet does.

Edit as an example cases in cumulative form paints a very different story:

 

 

It's not manipulated to accentuate any particular phase. It's a logarithmically scaled graph and the big gap between 200-500 (and 2000-5000 and 20000-50000) is about labelling, not scaling.

[Brave Sir Robin]

On 4/4/2020 at 12:00 AM, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Ok, I ask purely because the cynic in me looks at this particular chart which accentuates the phase we’re currently in comparatively to the phase Italy and Spain are currently, in terms of daily numbers of deaths. And this is with us having initiated lockdown with less than half the deaths Italy had when they did (despite all the protests we sat on our hands, etc) and all modelling suggests we won’t get anywhere near the total deaths that will be seen in Italy and Spain. Also, when I look through all the other charts the author has posted on the tweet, to me every single one makes our situation here look more positive in comparison to Italy and Spain than this particular tweet does.

Edit as an example cases in cumulative form paints a very different story:

 

There is virtually no point looking at the ‘cases’ numbers. They are a meaningless comparison unless every country is using the same approach to testing, which we know they’re not. Even if testing was more widely available, the high proportion of mild or asymptomatic cases who won’t feel the need to get tested is always likely to leave these figures unreliable.

The death figures, even with some lag and imperfections, are the most reliable guide we have to what’s happening. Although note that these numbers are not the number of deaths the previous day, as you might assume: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/why-what-we-think-we-know-about-the-uks-coronavirus-death-toll-is-wrong?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Edited April 5, 2020 by Brave Sir Robin

[Zoo Music Girl]

On the BBC this morning:

Measures could loosen in a few weeks' - UK scientific adviser

Prof Neil Ferguson, one of the UK government's top scientific advisers, has held out the prospect of restrictions being eased within a few weeks.

"There's a great deal of work underway to look at how we can substitute some of the intense social distancing in place with a regime more based on testing," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

"We need to get case numbers down, we can't do it when we have as many people being infected as we have now," he said.

"So the key thing is to get case numbers down. And then I'm hopeful, whilst we don't have all the answers about how we'll do it yet. But I'm hopeful that in a few weeks' time we'll be able to move to a new regime - that will not be normal life, let me emphasise that - but it will be somewhat more relaxed in terms of social distancing and the economy, but relying on testing."

Obviously this might not happen, but wondering what that could look like. Maybe just non-essential shops and possibly pubs opening but still advice to work from home? Or maybe just non-essential shops? Hard to imagine how it wouldn't set us back.

[jparx]

Hmm. If they have a plan to ease some restrictions and we don’t end up with a shitshow, then great. Just can’t see how it doesn’t end up a disaster if it’s done in the next few weeks. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

56 minutes ago, Brave Sir Robin said:

There is virtually no point looking at the ‘cases’ numbers. They are a meaningless comparison unless every country is using the same approach to testing, which we know they’re not. Even if testing was more widely available, the high proportion of mild or asymptomatic cases who won’t feel the need to get tested is always likely to leave these figures unreliable.

The death figures, even with some lag and imperfections, are the most reliable guide we have to what’s happening. Although note that these numbers are not the number deaths of deaths the previous day, as you might assume: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/why-what-we-think-we-know-about-the-uks-coronavirus-death-toll-is-wrong?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

I don’t know, I appreciate all your explanations and I know how viruses spread exponentially etc, but there is something about that first chart that is off to me, especially how the 200-500 section is larger than any other section. Based on everything I’ve read and all the different modelling the U.K. won’t have as many deaths as either Spain or Italy, yet to me and I assume most people, at first glance that chart looks like we’re on course to be a lot worse than both, and basically the worst hit country. There is no doubt we’re behind them and in a different phase, they’re coming out the other side and we’re going into the eye of the storm, but either way a simple no nonsense linear chart shows a completely different story:
 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-deaths-covid-19?country=OWID_WRL+GBR+ITA+ESP

 

 

Edited April 4, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[zahidf]

Next stage of easing social distancing would probably be non essential shops reopening and being allowed to see friends. Then pubs and restaurants reopening, then gatherings of 10, then 50, then back to normal etc. 

 

Ferguson says end of may as well!

Edited April 4, 2020 by zahidf

[dentalplan]

15 minutes ago, jparx said:

Hmm. If they have a plan to ease some restrictions and we don’t end up with a shitshow, then great. Just can’t see how it doesn’t end up a disaster if it’s done in the next few weeks. 

It's quite possibly a disaster whether it's in a few weeks or a few months.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

21 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

On the BBC this morning:

Measures could loosen in a few weeks' - UK scientific adviser

Prof Neil Ferguson, one of the UK government's top scientific advisers, has held out the prospect of restrictions being eased within a few weeks.

"There's a great deal of work underway to look at how we can substitute some of the intense social distancing in place with a regime more based on testing," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

"We need to get case numbers down, we can't do it when we have as many people being infected as we have now," he said.

"So the key thing is to get case numbers down. And then I'm hopeful, whilst we don't have all the answers about how we'll do it yet. But I'm hopeful that in a few weeks' time we'll be able to move to a new regime - that will not be normal life, let me emphasise that - but it will be somewhat more relaxed in terms of social distancing and the economy, but relying on testing."

Obviously this might not happen, but wondering what that could look like. Maybe just non-essential shops and possibly pubs opening but still advice to work from home? Or maybe just non-essential shops? Hard to imagine how it wouldn't set us back.

One thing they could immediately do is let us visit friends and family etc, pubs and restaurants could open but maybe how they are in Sweden now. I could see pubs and restaurants operating like the supermarkets do at the moment, somebody in the door, a queuing   system with table service only so they can’t become too crowded. Outside spaces like parks opened again too. I would imagine large events would remain off the table. 

[Zoo Music Girl]

7 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Next stage of easing social distancing would probably be non essential shops reopening and being allowed to see friends. Then pubs and restaurants reopening, then gatherings of 10, then 50, then back to normal etc. 

 

Ferguson says end of may as well!

Wonder whether seeing friends/family would include travelling or not. Seems unlikely.

[Zoo Music Girl]

3 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

One thing they could immediately do is let us visit friends and family etc, pubs and restaurants could open but maybe how they are in Sweden now. I could see pubs and restaurants operating like the supermarkets do at the moment, somebody in the door, a queuing   system with table service only so they can’t become too crowded. Outside spaces like parks opened again too. I would imagine large events would remain off the table. 

Parks are open now. A couple near me closed briefly but weren't ordered to and are open again now. Whether that remains the case after this weekend we shall see...

Also I could imagine that being the case with restaurants and pubs, which would basically make them pointless to attempt to visit round here because of the queues! 

Edited April 4, 2020 by Zoo Music Girl

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

5 minutes ago, dentalplan said:

It's quite possibly a disaster whether it's in a few weeks or a few months.

It doesn’t have to be, it’s clear from what he’s said about testing they’re planning on a contact tracing model. This will slow the spread as long as possible alongside any additional social distancing model. If the NHS doesn’t become overwhelmed as a whole in this next week or so, then surely overall if we can get to the point he’s referring to not to long after that, then that’s the best possible outcome that anybody could’ve hoped for?

Edited April 4, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[st dan]

Is it possible that the lockdown may have just been a stalling tactic to allow for the extra hospital beds, ventilators, PPE etc to be made available, and then we are better equipped for dealing with the herd immunity strategy? It’s clear this is what the Government wanted to go down the herd immunity all along, but soon discovered we were woefully underprepared - largely thanks to their management for the NHS over the past years. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

26 minutes ago, st dan said:

Is it possible that the lockdown may have just been a stalling tactic to allow for the extra hospital beds, ventilators, PPE etc to be made available, and then we are better equipped for dealing with the herd immunity strategy? It’s clear this is what the Government wanted to go down the herd immunity all along, but soon discovered we were woefully underprepared - largely thanks to their management for the NHS over the past years. 

I think so, and for tests as well. You can’t do effective contact tracing without sufficient tests nationally, and contact tracing is one way we can get out of lockdown and try and keep cases as low as possible. It’s clear we’ve been struggling to get our hands on enough tests and ones that actually work properly as well. Hopefully we will have sorted that out by the time case numbers have fallen off. 

[mcshed]

1 hour ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

but there is something about that first chart that is off to me, especially how the 200-500 section is larger than any other section.

How many times does it need to be explained that it is a log scale graph, spaces of an equal size represent a doubling in numbers. That's why 1x - 2x is the same size as 5x - 10x but 2x - 5x is larger as 5 is more than double 2. That's why 200 - 500, 2000 - 5000 and 20,000 - 50,000 all have the same size but larger gaps than the rest which all represent a doubling.

[steviewevie]

Next two weeks is really crucial...I just can't see lockdown being lifted in a few weeks...but you never know. Maybe some but not all restrictions will be lifted. Anyway, going to be a really shitty few weeks, and just have to hope the current social distancing means NHS able to cope.

Edited April 4, 2020 by steviewevie

[zahidf]

27 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Next two weeks is really crucial...I just can't see lockdown being lifted in a few weeks...but you never know. Maybe some but not all restrictions will be lifted. Anyway, going to be a really shitty few weeks, and just have to hope the current social distancing means NHS able to cope.

His idea of a few weeks seems to be end of may... I suspect its framed to stop people going out the next couple of weekends.

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

His idea of a few weeks seems to be end of may... I suspect its framed to stop people going out the next couple of weekends.

Yeah, people need to know this will end.

[DareToDibble]

With the nice weather today and predicted even better weather tomorrow you know the reports of people swarming to beaches and parks are going to be an absolute shitshow.