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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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53 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

 

 

As maths was never my strong point I'm reluctant to criticise an expert, but does this figure of 2.4% case hospitalization really mean 1075 in 10 days time? The hospitalization rate is steadily falling and 10 days ago it was at 3%, if it continues to fall, in 10 days time it could well be at 2% in which case the admissions will be lower than he suggests, all this on top of the fact that the cases figure is directly affected by the amount of testing, it is not the absolute true number of people currently  infected just a guide based on how much testing has been done, so there is no way to predict how many people are going to be ill enough for hospital based on this figure, (the true number of people infected will be far higher than 44777) if he was referring to the test positivity rate and making a guesstimate of overall cases from that I might be more inclined to accept his figures. There is an old saying, "lies, damned lies and statistics", the number of false assumptions and misinterpretations of data during this crisis is staggering, people should be questioning every "fact" presented.

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1 minute ago, gizmoman said:

As maths was never my strong point I'm reluctant to criticise an expert, but does this figure of 2.4% case hospitalization really mean 1075 in 10 days time? The hospitalization rate is steadily falling and 10 days ago it was at 3%, if it continues to fall, in 10 days time it could well be at 2% in which case the admissions will be lower than he suggests, all this on top of the fact that the cases figure is directly affected by the amount of testing, it is not the absolute true number of people currently  infected just a guide based on how much testing has been done, so there is no way to predict how many people are going to be ill enough for hospital based on this figure, (the true number of people infected will be far higher than 44777) if he was referring to the test positivity rate and making a guesstimate of overall cases from that I might be more inclined to accept his figures. There is an old saying, "lies, damned lies and statistics", the number of false assumptions and misinterpretations of data during this crisis is staggering, people should be questioning every "fact" presented.

I dont need to I can rely on you for that .... your opening line of maths was never my strong point doesnt help fill me with confidence though 

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54 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

People who would never go to clubs or festivals now have a stick to beat people with who do. Germaphobes who would quite happily see Glastonbury never happen again. Jealousy and insecurity. 

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12 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

“We do things differently here” 🙄. God I hate this northern virtuous attitude that it’s only them who have a moral compass. Walk down through Manchester City central, hundreds of people without masks on public transport and in shops. Give in Burnham. Stop trying to start a culture war.

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3 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Tbh I just read the opening line and didn’t bother with the rest 

in which case your first line "I don't need to I can rely on you for that" doesn't make any sense. Still, I don't blame you for not thinking about it, no point risking changing your opinion.

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1 minute ago, gizmoman said:

in which case your first line "I don't need to I can rely on you for that" doesn't make any sense. Still, I don't blame you for not thinking about it, no point risking changing your opinion.

I’ve read every single one of your comments all the way through … 

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7 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

“We do things differently here” 🙄. God I hate this northern virtuous attitude that it’s only them who have a moral compass. Walk down through Manchester City central, hundreds of people without masks on public transport and in shops. Give in Burnham. Stop trying to start a culture war.

Andrew Burnham to you.

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14 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

People who would never go to clubs or festivals now have a stick to beat people with who do. Germaphobes who would quite happily see Glastonbury never happen again. Jealousy and insecurity. 

It's all being set up for clubs being the scapegoat for the inevitable increase in cases. 

I'll be pleasantly surprised if clubs are still open by the end of August. 

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Just now, El Matador said:

It's all being set up for clubs being the scapegoat for the inevitable increase in cases. 

I'll be pleasantly surprised if clubs are still open by the end of August. 

It really really fucking sucks and yet I wouldn’t be surprised if some users on here clapped at festivals and nightclubs being thrown under the bus this way. The events industry is in a dire condition right now.

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1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

It really really fucking sucks and yet I wouldn’t be surprised if some users on here clapped at festivals and nightclubs being thrown under the bus this way. The events industry is in a dire condition right now.

It’s just gonna be the thing that adds to an ever increasing problem that’s already an issue … they are unfortunately going to be a hotbed of transmission and I really want them open … they are the last to open and will be the first thing to go … such a shame but we don’t need to look far to see the issue they cause … No one is clapping we are all on a festival forum and live live music just like you 

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2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

It really really fucking sucks and yet I wouldn’t be surprised if some users on here clapped at festivals and nightclubs being thrown under the bus this way. The events industry is in a dire condition right now.

Man, the way you go on, if we're not fully on board with the ending of all restrictions then we must be fun hating vaccine denialists and that's it. It's all shit, hopefully things will improve, but there's a lot of uncertainty, and that is it.

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20 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

“We do things differently here” 🙄. God I hate this northern virtuous attitude that it’s only them who have a moral compass. Walk down through Manchester City central, hundreds of people without masks on public transport and in shops. Give in Burnham. Stop trying to start a culture war.

To be fair, he's quoting (I believe) Tony Wilson, and the phrase has been associated with Manchester for a long time now.

It's bollocks, of course, but I thing you're reading more into it than there is.

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2 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

If the NHS is overwhelmed again, then it will happen, I don't think it matters how many vaccinations.

If that happens inure. But we currently have 3964 in Hospital, peak was 39,254 in January, 551 are ventilated vs 4077 at January peak. If we pass that peak basically the Vaccines don’t work.

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27 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

“We do things differently here” 🙄. God I hate this northern virtuous attitude that it’s only them who have a moral compass. Walk down through Manchester City central, hundreds of people without masks on public transport and in shops. Give in Burnham. Stop trying to start a culture war.

Good old fashioned plain speaking and common sense up there:
 

 

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15 minutes ago, El Matador said:

It's all being set up for clubs being the scapegoat for the inevitable increase in cases. 

I'll be pleasantly surprised if clubs are still open by the end of August. 

I think they'll be allowed to be open by then but will be required to use Covid Passports, if not enough buissnesses take it on board I think they'll end up making it mandatory. I know its not the most feasible thing but I think they're one of the safest things we can use for a safe reopening of society 

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42 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

It’s just gonna be the thing that adds to an ever increasing problem that’s already an issue … they are unfortunately going to be a hotbed of transmission and I really want them open … they are the last to open and will be the first thing to go … such a shame but we don’t need to look far to see the issue they cause … No one is clapping we are all on a festival forum and live live music just like you 

To be honest in the current financially helped times I'd prefer live music was closed to avoid the scapegoating 

Because scapegoating = no insurance for festivals next year after the winter months and further uncertainty around whether they'll be allowed 

Edited by efcfanwirral
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34 minutes ago, MEGABOWL said:

If that happens inure. But we currently have 3964 in Hospital, peak was 39,254 in January, 551 are ventilated vs 4077 at January peak. If we pass that peak basically the Vaccines don’t work.

Exactly. It’s a gamble but there has to be a strong cut off point for case rises. We are always due an exit wave but it surely cannot be anywhere near the heights of January… unless the vaccines don’t work as you said.

I feel confident that cases will rise but start to taper off. Deaths will not increase to levels anywhere near the level we’ve seen before, and soon it will become clear that the virus hasn’t got much further to go.

Delaying the exit wave just delays the inevitable.

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36 minutes ago, MEGABOWL said:

If that happens inure. But we currently have 3964 in Hospital, peak was 39,254 in January, 551 are ventilated vs 4077 at January peak. If we pass that peak basically the Vaccines don’t work.

or we add a massive flu season to the mix ? 

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