steviewevie Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Matt42 said: Exactly. It’s a gamble but there has to be a strong cut off point for case rises. We are always due an exit wave but it surely cannot be anywhere near the heights of January… unless the vaccines don’t work as you said. I feel confident that cases will rise but start to taper off. Deaths will not increase to levels anywhere near the level we’ve seen before, and soon it will become clear that the virus hasn’t got much further to go. Delaying the exit wave just delays the inevitable. The problem is hospitals. They are already busy. Yes we have vaccines which are the main barrier to hospitalisations, but we are taking away all other barriers such as we had in January. So, it's a bit of a gamble to go for it now when haven't immunised as many as we can and we have a growth in cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barry Fish Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 5 hours ago, Matt42 said: This thread is pretty quiet. I really don’t know what to say either tbh. Feels weird. 5 hours ago, kalifire said: It’s the calm before the fuckstorm. Well personally been drinking beer and eating steaks in the Garden with friends while our kids play in the pool 🙂 Just watched the highlights of the F1 to see Lewis play a game of Mario kart to win the British Grand Prix and now its a glass of Malbec before I throw my mask on the bonfire 😛 What a great day 🙂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barry Fish Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 3 hours ago, Matt42 said: So is the consensus winter lockdown? 3 hours ago, BobWillis2 said: Autumn I don't think it will come to that. I think we will make it through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fraybentos1 Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 Some good news (if that’s allowed in here) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
km9 Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, Barry Fish said: Well personally been drinking beer and eating steaks in the Garden with friends while our kids play in the pool 🙂 Just watched the highlights of the F1 to see Lewis play a game of Mario kart to win the British Grand Prix and now its a glass of Malbec before I throw my mask on the bonfire 😛 What a great day 🙂 Similar here mate, but with added tour de France. Have a great week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crazyfool1 Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 Just now, fraybentos1 said: Some good news (if that’s allowed in here) absolutely is ... here's hoping we follow soon .... ive a festival to get to in 4 weeks 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barry Fish Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Matt42 said: “We do things differently here” 🙄. God I hate this northern virtuous attitude that it’s only them who have a moral compass. Walk down through Manchester City central, hundreds of people without masks on public transport and in shops. Give in Burnham. Stop trying to start a culture war. He really is top level prick at the moment. Playing a political game and has throughout. Northerners don't look after each other any more than anywhere else. And to be frank - the North is jam packed with horrible scum I wouldn't touch with a barge poll - it also has some lovely people - like me - so it ain't all bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MEGABOWL Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 13 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said: or we add a massive flu season to the mix ? Certainly possible, and probably encouraged by being Locked Down last year. Could add 300 Hospital admissions per week going by 2019 peak. I think that’s the logic behind going now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barry Fish Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said: Some good news (if that’s allowed in here) No its not - we are only allowed to hear from zero covid scientists telling us we are all fucked and about to die... Hope not fear - and this looks like hope 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crazyfool1 Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 1 minute ago, MEGABOWL said: Certainly possible, and probably encouraged by being Locked Down last year. Could add 300 Hospital admissions per week going by 2019 peak. I think that’s the logic behind going now though. yeah true ... wait and see how it plays out though .... I wonder if there are any other medical advances on the horizon that might help us .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st dan Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 All this arguing over whether it is the right or wrong call to proceed with tomorrow, but the only way to find out is by unfortunately going in blind to some extent, and then of course hindsight will play a big part in the weeks and months to come. We can all analyse any graph we want to interpret the current data as positive or negative as we see fit, but we just don’t know how this will work until we try in it a real life environment. There will always be ifs and buts - let’s cross our fingers and hope it’s a calculated gamble that’s going to pay off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barry Fish Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 1 minute ago, st dan said: All this arguing over whether it is the right or wrong call to proceed with tomorrow, but the only way to find out is by unfortunately going in blind to some extent, and then of course hindsight will play a big part in the weeks and months to come. We can all analyse any graph we want to interpret the current data as positive or negative as we see fit, but we just don’t know how this will work until we try in it a real life environment. There will always be ifs and buts - let’s cross our fingers and hope it’s a calculated gamble that’s going to pay off. I think what is lost on some is there will never be a good time to do this... The NHS is going to be backed logged for years after the near shutdown last year (other than covid) so that isn't a strong reason to delay. With schools outs and people on holiday not in offices - there won't ever be a better time. The types making a huge song and dance in the papers and tv are the ones who's have throughout and refuse to look beyond a zero covid mindset. If this doesn't work - and I expect it will work - then we won't be just locking down in the Autumn, we will be having rolling lockdowns for years to come I fear. But I don't think its going to come to that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steviewevie Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, st dan said: All this arguing over whether it is the right or wrong call to proceed with tomorrow, but the only way to find out is by unfortunately going in blind to some extent, and then of course hindsight will play a big part in the weeks and months to come. We can all analyse any graph we want to interpret the current data as positive or negative as we see fit, but we just don’t know how this will work until we try in it a real life environment. There will always be ifs and buts - let’s cross our fingers and hope it’s a calculated gamble that’s going to pay off. Yeah, but thread is ending so we can't argue who was more right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barry Fish Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 Just now, steviewevie said: Yeah, but thread is ending so we can't argue who was more right. Should be moved to the discussion section of the forum in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barry Fish Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 (edited) https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/18/freedom-day-face-mask-confusion-looms-legal-requirement-wear/ Passengers face a chaotic commute on "Freedom Day" after rail bosses said face masks must be worn on busy platforms but can be removed if boarding a quiet train. Great news - if everyone could just keep their voices down then we won't have to wear masks 😄 Here all week... Edited July 18, 2021 by Barry Fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chapple12345 Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barry Fish Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/18/covid-deaths-just-one-sixteenth-level-seen-previous-waves/ Context is everything... Death rates in England and Wales are currently 5.2 per cent below the five-year average, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), with Covid now accounting for just 1.2 per cent of deaths. Hospital admissions are a quarter of where they were at the same point in the winter wave, while the number of patients in hospital is one fifth of the level then. On Sunday, ahead of Monday's "Freedom Day", Prof Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College, said that if case numbers could be kept below 100,000 a day and admissions at 1,000, he would consider the release a success. The seven-day rolling number of admissions is currently 616 per day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigger123 Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zahidf Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuartbert two hats Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, tigger123 said: The 28 day rule was a useful way of getting a figure that was consistent and easy to compare, but as the case fatality ratio continues to drop and the prevalence stays high, surely we have to start looking at the more accurate, but less consistent measure? Eventually, we could end up in a dihydrogen monoxide situation and that's no use to anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobWillis2 Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 20 minutes ago, tigger123 said: It’s 28 days because covid isn’t an infection-symptoms-hospital-death within days disease. We do really need to come up with a better system than recording all cause deaths within 28 days of a positive test though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steviewevie Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Copperface Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 39 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said: The 28 day rule was a useful way of getting a figure that was consistent and easy to compare, but as the case fatality ratio continues to drop and the prevalence stays high, surely we have to start looking at the more accurate, but less consistent measure? Eventually, we could end up in a dihydrogen monoxide situation and that's no use to anyone. That Osmond idiot has subsequently apologised for getting it wrong so no, it's not that inaccurate. That's what happens when bar ownwers start becoming experts in mortality causes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastynh Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 3 hours ago, Matt42 said: “We do things differently here” 🙄. God I hate this northern virtuous attitude that it’s only them who have a moral compass. Walk down through Manchester City central, hundreds of people without masks on public transport and in shops. Give in Burnham. Stop trying to start a culture war. He is just quoting Tony Wilson and trying to do the right thing. No harm will come from wearing a mask. I am not a fan of Burnham, but I have no issue with trying to get people to keep wearing a mask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steviewevie Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 Telegraph now reporting all kids could be jabbed by Xmas. Wish they'd make up their minds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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