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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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1 minute ago, danmarks said:

There's going to be an overlap of the two though. Obviously no one knows how big an overlap but it wont be an either/or. Unfortunately some people will succome to covid who would have succomed to flu.

yes, there will be an overlap...still will be an increase in numbers if get bad outbreak with both flu and covid. I guess they will work to evaluate how bad it could be earlier in the winter and then react in whatever way they can.

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8 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Sorry, I still don't get it. I know it's not your quote, but do you believe "Leave it much later and you pretty much will need to lockdown until March 2022 " If so, why?

LSHTM Interim Roadmap Assessment comments, “even the 2 or 5 week delay to Step 4 can result in modest increases in morbidity and mortality when measured until the end of the year as more cases are pushed back into the autumn”.

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1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

yes, there will be an overlap...still will be an increase in numbers if get bad outbreak with both flu and covid. I guess they will work to evaluate how bad it could be earlier in the winter and then react in whatever way they can.

yep this winter is going to be a test event for the nhs ? 

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12 minutes ago, danmarks said:

It definitely is the reality. Been about 6 times since reopening. Different cinemas , same in every one. They are much emptier tgan i expected too. So are the pubs .

 

Sad times.

But im in pubs and cinemas.

Good times!

Happy days   enjoy 

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49 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

 Did you think we test for flu?  It's rare.

Course we test for flu! Compared to Covid testing, every diagnostic test is "rare", but there's about 1m+ flu tests done in the US every year, about 80% as outpatients and the rest in other settings. Now, they'd do that in a day for Covid, but we aren't in a flu pandemic most of the time, so aren't undertaking the expansive molecular surveillance we are now (but testing identifies which strains are the cause of the observed infections). There are a range of surveillance systems used in the UK (even down to keeping an eye on how frequently people search for flu on google!), but we do test for it as well (both point of care testing and PCR-based testing...indeed, some are even sequenced, though again, nowhere near the level we are currently doing for SARS-CoV-2). Eventually, Covid will join the ranks of the myriad notifiable diseases we keep an eye on in the background. 

Edited by Toilet Duck
typo!
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1 minute ago, zahidf said:

Yup. What's caution and what's fear?

 

yeah, risk. It's like this with loads of stuff...risk of various catastrophic events and how much  to spend on planning and preparing for them...whether it's a pandemic, a terrorist strike, a nuclear attack, or a solar flare wiping out the electricity supply. With current situation, I think we're in early days of coming out of this and there are nerves as have been burnt before with this virus, and they don't want to reverse the roadmap at all.....but as more and more get vaccinated the risk decreases and eventually we have to go for it and bin the social distancing thing.

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4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

LSHTM Interim Roadmap Assessment comments, “even the 2 or 5 week delay to Step 4 can result in modest increases in morbidity and mortality when measured until the end of the year as more cases are pushed back into the autumn”.

Thanks, this is what I was looking for. I'll give the PDF a read. Presumably it's the one that can be downloaded from here?

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/lshtm-interim-roadmap-assessment-prior-to-step-4-9-june-2021

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7 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Course we test for flu! Compared to Covid testing, every diagnostic test is "rare", but there's about 1m+ flu tests done in the US every year, about 80% as outpatients and the rest in other settings. Now, they'd do that in a day for Covid, but we aren't in a flu pandemic most of the time, so aren't undertaking the expansive molecular surveillance we are now (but testing identifies which stains are the cause of the observed infections). There are a range of surveillance systems used in the UK (even down to keeping an eye on how frequently people search for flu on google!), but we do test for it as well (both point of care testing and PCR-based testing...indeed, some are even sequenced, though again, nowhere near the level we are currently doing for SARS-CoV-2). Eventually, Covid will join the ranks of the myriad notifiable diseases we keep an eye on in the background. 

You confirmed what I said.  I never said we didn't test flu.  Testing for flu is hardly a routine event on arrival in a&e.  1 million tests in the US isn't a big number at all.

Surprised you have taken exception to my comments when you seem to have reaffirmed my comments.

I asked my staff nurse mother in law how often do you test for flu and she said almost never and its usually picked up when doing a range of other tests when trying to work out what's going on with someone.  Hey but what does she know.

Most people turn up at A&E suffering from the after effects of flu as well.  Not with flu.

Edited by Barry Fish
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1 hour ago, MrBarry465 said:

I've no issues with people's right to protest this final extension, it just seems incredibly dumb at this juncture - almost pointless.

Plenty of valid reasons for people to protest. 

People that feel we're still living under restrictions for at least another 4 weeks despite meeting the criteria originally set out by the government for lifting all restrictions. 

People that feel the response to this is out of proportion with the consequences and don't like themselves and future generations having to accept a lower quality of life to pay for it. 

People that don't believe the government will actually lift all restrictions in july. 

Just because these protests attract complete lunatics doesn't mean there aren't valid concerns. 

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There are two types of anti lockdown protestor.

 

Some of them are fringe lunatics. Anti-vaxxers, QAnon, 5G type nutters. These types don’t deserve any air time.

 

Then there’s your normal anti-lockdown protestor who just thinks that the curbs on personal freedom have gone way too far for a virus that the vast majority of people survive without hospital treatment. That’s a much more worthwhile conversation. 

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7 minutes ago, El Matador said:

Plenty of valid reasons for people to protest. 

People that feel we're still living under restrictions for at least another 4 weeks despite meeting the criteria originally set out by the government for lifting all restrictions. 

People that feel the response to this is out of proportion with the consequences and don't like themselves and future generations having to accept a lower quality of life to pay for it. 

People that don't believe the government will actually lift all restrictions in july. 

Just because these protests attract complete lunatics doesn't mean there aren't valid concerns. 

Very true.

Some posters here want to create a Trump vs Biden style argument.  Where one set are lunatics and the other are the righteous.

I was all for restrictions back when they made sense.  That point was passed sometime in April.

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26 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

And from the Southern Hemisphere perspective.

Flu almost ‘nowhere to be seen’ in Australia post-COVID (smh.com.au)

Differing circumstances and all that, but it will be interesting to see what effect the last half year plus of restrictions has for the UK.

The flip side is that there is some concern out there that because they don't know what strains  are prevalent in the opposing hemisphere, they are worried the next vaccines will miss the mark. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

You confirmed what I said.  I never said we didn't test flu.  Testing for flu is hardly a routine event on arrival in a&e.  1 million tests in the US isn't a big number at all.

Surprised you have taken exception to my comments when you seem to have reaffirmed my comments.

I asked my staff nurse mother in law how often do you test for flu and she said almost never and its usually picked up when doing a range of other tests when trying to work out what's going on with someone.  Hey but what does she know.

...we don't specifically test everyone in the community at the rate we are doing for Covid (of course not),  but we don't "almost never" test for flu (most are done at point of care, not in A&E). Granted, the % of "influenza-like" symptoms that are molecularly tested for flu is not huge, but it's not almost never (and it's mostly not in hospital). I think our concept of how much testing is "normal" has been skewed completely by the vast amount of molecular surveillance that we are doing in our current situation (which is anything but normal!). All notifiable diseases are tested for, but at a rate that confirms other observations made using symptom trackers, internet searches etc. But your Q to CF was "did you think we tested for flu?", and I answered that by saying, yes, we do!

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8 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

...we don't specifically test everyone in the community at the rate we are doing for Covid (of course not),  but we don't "almost never" test for flu (most are done at point of care, not in A&E). Granted, the % of "influenza-like" symptoms that are molecularly tested for flu is not huge, but it's not almost never (and it's mostly not in hospital). I think our concept of how much testing is "normal" has been skewed completely by the vast amount of molecular surveillance that we are doing in our current situation (which is anything but normal!). All notifiable diseases are tested for, but at a rate that confirms other observations made using symptom trackers, internet searches etc. But your Q to CF was "did you think we tested for flu?", and I answered that by saying, yes, we do!

Okay let's put it another way.

The reported 10,000 flu deaths a year are largely not from confirmed tests but largely from doctors assessing symptoms and using their judgement it was flu.  Would you agree ?

Edited by Barry Fish
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Just now, Barry Fish said:

Okay let's put it another way.

The reported 10,000 flu deaths a year are not from confirmed tests but largely from doctors assessing symptoms.  Would you agree ?

Yep! 

However, we do test for it, and it would be incorrect to suggest we don't or "almost never" do. Again, what we are doing now is nowhere near normal levels of surveillance. 

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Maybe I’ve lost the plot here … but a flu case diagnosed by a dr … is fairly likely to be a flu case anyway ? Covid is being tested for so that rules that out …. So the numbers we get are a decent picture of the reality in hospital settings at least …. Anyway back to original point that we had a drop in flu numbers over the winter and we will see this winter how much of a difference masks and social distancing have made to that if they are both removed …. If just one goes we will see how much that one thing helps on it’s own 

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1 minute ago, crazyfool1 said:

Maybe I’ve lost the plot here … but a flu case diagnosed by a dr … is fairly likely to be a flu case anyway ? Covid is being tested for so that rules that out …. So the numbers we get are a decent picture of the reality in hospital settings at least …. Anyway back to original point that we had a drop in flu numbers over the winter and we will see this winter how much of a difference masks and social distancing have made to that if they are both removed …. If just one goes we will see how much that one thing helps on it’s own 

I guess there may still be low flu numbers this winter due to restrictions globally?

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2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I guess there may still be low flu numbers this winter due to restrictions globally?

Fair point … I wonder if we get a bounce back though due to our immune systems being a bit more susceptible after social distancing ends 

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32 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Yep! 

However, we do test for it, and it would be incorrect to suggest we don't or "almost never" do. Again, what we are doing now is nowhere near normal levels of surveillance. 

Okay, I wanted to make sure I wasn't getting it wrong.  I accept I could of worded the post better.  Cheers

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I did read the other day (may have been on here actually) that due to the pandemic and lockdown 2 strains of flu no longer exist which should in theory reduce flu numbers. No idea how many strains of flu are our there though... if its infinite then this will make bugger all difference.

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2 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

I still only have the option to cancel and rebook 

Apparently when you click 'Cancel and Rebook' it shows you availability, so you can see what is on offer before you confirm cancellation.

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5 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Apparently when you click 'Cancel and Rebook' it shows you availability, so you can see what is on offer before you confirm cancellation.

Thanks just had a play and this is correct.

It said there was availability on Saturday which would be below 8 weeks for me.  When I went back through to book it offered me Thursday onwards only which is 8 weeks.  So the availability isn't checking eligibility it seems.  Something to keep in mind folks. 

Edited by Barry Fish
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