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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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Nervously waiting on today’s announcement. I’m getting married on 17 July (weekend before supposed relaxation if it is indeed extended by four weeks).  We are hoping to have 30+ guests. 

Hearing rumblings that limits on guests will be lifted but there will be restrictions on certain elements still (which would be fine from my perspective). 

As much as I love to see football/cricket back to normal (ish) it does frustrate me slightly seeing all the crowd singing and dancing all close together in their hundreds if I can’t do that in a smaller and more controlled environment. 

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4 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

So what are you going to do, exactly? Are you actually going to participate in full-on civil disobedience? Or are you just assuming other people will do that bit and you're just going to go Tesco without a mask?

I see a lot of talk like this but very little that actually looks like it'll become action.

You constantly see this kind of talk on Twitter and it makes me laugh every single time. They act hard behind their keyboard and fall into line when push comes to shove with no intention of causing a scene. It's sad in a way, ultimately we're stuck whether the people like it or not

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8 minutes ago, andyrhodes24 said:

I agree it's not looking good. It begs the question of what the point of the pilot events was if they're not going to let events like Latitude, R&L and Creamfields go ahead with mass testing. They're literally organised by the same people organising the pilot events

Camp Bestival (last weekend in July) will be another casualty no doubt - was meant to be my first one back!

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6 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Heard this throughout the pandemic and its about as uncaring or lacking in sympathy  for others as can be.

The mantra goes that you shouldn't worry about everything you have lost as you haven't died.  Its utter bollocks stance to take and belittles the things in life others are losing.

The girls go to church which obviously has a older bunch of people as you would expect.  You really think they haven't had to put up with everything they have lost AND don't know people who have died ?  There grandmother almost died from covid in July.

You frame it like the two are separate.   A rare dumb moment for you.  Your usally better (when your not wishing death on other posters mind)

I was saying it's been shit for everyone - you were the one that was saying the impact for you and your kids have been worse and belittling what others had lost?

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7 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Heard this throughout the pandemic and its about as uncaring or lacking in sympathy  for others as can be.

The mantra goes that you shouldn't worry about everything you have lost as you haven't died.  Its utter bollocks stance to take and belittles the things in life others are losing.

The girls go to church which obviously has a older bunch of people as you would expect.  You really think they haven't had to put up with everything they have lost AND don't know people who have died ?  There grandmother almost died from covid in July.

You frame it like the two are separate.   A rare dumb moment for you.  Your usally better (when your not wishing death on other posters mind)

He likes a logical fallacy. Appeal to emotion being one of his favourites. 

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5 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I was saying it's been shit for everyone - you were the one that was saying the impact for you and your kids have been worse and belittling what others had lost?

Hardly... that post mentioned all kids..

You know your a lieing arse.  I clearly never said its been worse for me.

Edited by Barry Fish
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1 minute ago, discgoesmic said:

Camp Bestival (last weekend in July) will be another casualty no doubt - was meant to be my first one back!

It really is gutting isn't it. I've not got much hope for indoor gigs after the summer so we really need festivals this summer to keep a lot of us going with live music. Festivals could be so easily done with mass testing, they just need the results of this Download Pilot back pronto!

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4 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Fear of the unknown

The decision makers are party to a lot more data than the snapshot presented to the general public. In the space of 48hrs Mrs Lycra's unit has gone from no covid patients to double figures as the covid isolation unit is full. The majority of the patients are under 40, with some under 20. At the current rate of covid patient intake the specialist acute respiratory unit will be forced to close to non-covid patients within another 48hrs. Some of these covid patients may not make it and so will some non-covid patients denied access to the specialist respiratory unit. That's the unseen reality.

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1 minute ago, andyrhodes24 said:

It really is gutting isn't it. I've not got much hope for indoor gigs after the summer so we really need festivals this summer to keep a lot of us going with live music. Festivals could be so easily done with mass testing, they just need the results of this Download Pilot back pronto!

Absolutely, I guess as others have undoubtedly said they can't start building the festival (amongst countless other things) with no guarantee that the lockdown will even end July 19. I'm just keeping an eye on Twitter accounts but I suspect most will be cancelled.

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27 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Perfect timing for the kids!

Yeah, and while it is a newer technique for making protein and has a non-metallic adjuvant, it's a more "traditional" vaccine. Keep an eye on the Altimmune one too, not much chat about it here yet, but it's a one dose, nasal spray and the pre-clinical data looks fantastic (really strong IgA mucosal immune response, no evidence of virus in the lungs of challenged animals following administration and had better protection from beta and gamma compared to the existing vaccines, a second dose of it left the neutralising immune response to all the variants practically intact (worst response observed was a max 1.8 fold decrease in neutralising antibodies for the SA variant, which is really strong...I don't think eradication is on the cards, but if it is ever feasible, the kind of sterilising immunity that's possible with nasally delivered vaccines is the way we'd get there). Altimmune is an adenovirus vaccine though, so maybe the tweak the Germans are proposing needs to be looked at. Novavax also have a combined flu/covid vaccine that is looking good in pre-clinical studies, so lots more on the horizon. 

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One thought experiment I was taught once is fairly enlightening when you see people saying things like "6000 avoidable deaths is an acceptable price to pay for reopening a few weeks earlier" - instead of assuming they are COVID deaths, assume instead that you live under an evil totalitarian government, and that before they re-open, they're going execute 6000 people in the population, completely at random. It's a lottery. There's no way to increase or decrease your chance, no-one is more or less at risk that anyone else, could be you, could be your partner, or your kids.

If you still think its worth it (and that's not an unreasonable position) then you're coming from a dispassionate, scientific place. But if it starts to make you feel uncomfortable, it's because you have some confidence that it's really unlikely one of the 6000 people will be you or someone you care about. And so you're only in favour because you think it won't impact you. 

And I know COVID doesn't target everyone equally and kids won't die from it and so on - that's kind of the point of the thought experiment - if you're only in favour of unlocking because of that, it's because you're convinced it'll be other people, not you.

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1 minute ago, Lycra said:

The decision makers are party to a lot more data than the snapshot presented to the general public. In the space of 48hrs Mrs Lycra's unit has gone from no covid patients to double figures as the covid isolation unit is full. The majority of the patients are under 40, with some under 20. At the current rate of covid patient intake the specialist acute respiratory unit will be forced to close to non-covid patients within another 48hrs. Some of these covid patients may not make it and so will some non-covid patients denied access to the specialist respiratory unit. That's the unseen reality.

I should just take your word for it ?

We should be publishing the data.

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22 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

 

The thing is, others would look at you that have lost friends and family to this, and see the lost memories of your daughter the same way you see those on furlough. That you've had it easy and should count your blessings.

You've not. It's been shit for everyone.

It was kind of weird catching up over the weekend posts this morning - seeing people arguing over how avoidable deaths are acceptable then getting (understandably, it was horrific) about what happened at the football. 

People should bear in mind that every one of those avoidable deaths that they're saying are acceptable will have friends and family - they could easily be someone you know, someone close to you, someone playing sport on tele, all sorts of people. And those arguments aren't even necessarily wrong - we're not going to hit zero COVID, and we do face potentially more death elsewhere if the economic damage gets worse.

But maybe people could ease off the argument that the deaths are acceptable just because they're fed up of lockdown? 

I think as a nation we need to work out where our line is between preventable and non preventable deaths, and somehow decide what is acceptable and what isn't 

The logical next steps from trying to prevent every covid death is trying to prevent every flu death. We know we can, so why don't we? Why does a covid death mean more just because its novel? They're families who lose someone too. 

Masks can eliminate the flu we're told but is that really going to be the case with indoor venues open, maybe even without social distancing, then people going to see their elderly relatives, meeting up at Christmas etc? We could restrict our way to not killing those tens of thousands of people every year, and take away the NHS's biggest winter problem. Should we? Why not, just because it was acceptable before?

Not saying I have strong feelings either way - just putting it all out there as a discussion point. 

Edited by efcfanwirral
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1 minute ago, Toilet Duck said:

Yeah, and while it is a newer technique for making protein and has a non-metallic adjuvant, it's a more "traditional" vaccine. Keep an eye on the Altimmune one too, not much chat about it here yet, but it's a one dose, nasal spray and the pre-clinical data looks fantastic (really strong IgA mucosal immune response, no evidence of virus in the lungs of challenged animals following administration and had better protection from beta and gamma compared to the existing vaccines, a second dose of it left the neutralising immune response to all the variants practically intact (worst response observed was a max 1.8 fold decrease in neutralising antibodies for the SA variant, which is really strong...I don't think eradication is on the cards, but if it is ever feasible, the kind of sterilising immunity that's possible with nasally delivered vaccines is the way we'd get there). Altimmune is an adenovirus vaccine though, so maybe the tweak the Germans are proposing needs to be looked at. Novavax also have a combined flu/covid vaccine that is looking good in pre-clinical studies, so lots more on the horizon. 

Thanks for this!

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3 minutes ago, Lycra said:

The decision makers are party to a lot more data than the snapshot presented to the general public. In the space of 48hrs Mrs Lycra's unit has gone from no covid patients to double figures as the covid isolation unit is full. The majority of the patients are under 40, with some under 20. At the current rate of covid patient intake the specialist acute respiratory unit will be forced to close to non-covid patients within another 48hrs. Some of these covid patients may not make it and so will some non-covid patients denied access to the specialist respiratory unit. That's the unseen reality.

When did you have a spike in cases in your area to translate to this situation now?

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11 minutes ago, lessthanwill1 said:

Nervously waiting on today’s announcement. I’m getting married on 17 July (weekend before supposed relaxation if it is indeed extended by four weeks).  We are hoping to have 30+ guests. 

Hearing rumblings that limits on guests will be lifted but there will be restrictions on certain elements still (which would be fine from my perspective). 

As much as I love to see football/cricket back to normal (ish) it does frustrate me slightly seeing all the crowd singing and dancing all close together in their hundreds if I can’t do that in a smaller and more controlled environment. 

Health minister bloke pretty much confirmed this morning that they will be relaxing restrictions on weddings...so fingers crossed you'll be ok.

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7 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Hardly... that post mentioned all kids..

You know your a lieing arse.  I clearly never said its been worse for me.

You said:

"The worse some people had was a 6 month paid holiday on furlough.  

Its not hurting everyone the same way."

Then somehow called me out for belittling what others have had to deal with?

Like I said, it's been shit for everyone. 

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4 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

One thought experiment I was taught once is fairly enlightening when you see people saying things like "6000 avoidable deaths is an acceptable price to pay for reopening a few weeks earlier" - instead of assuming they are COVID deaths, assume instead that you live under an evil totalitarian government, and that before they re-open, they're going execute 6000 people in the population, completely at random. It's a lottery. There's no way to increase or decrease your chance, no-one is more or less at risk that anyone else, could be you, could be your partner, or your kids.

If you still think its worth it (and that's not an unreasonable position) then you're coming from a dispassionate, scientific place. But if it starts to make you feel uncomfortable, it's because you have some confidence that it's really unlikely one of the 6000 people will be you or someone you care about. And so you're only in favour because you think it won't impact you. 

And I know COVID doesn't target everyone equally and kids won't die from it and so on - that's kind of the point of the thought experiment - if you're only in favour of unlocking because of that, it's because you're convinced it'll be other people, not you.

True story...

My 86 year old grandmother who is very much at risks thinks we should unlock and I do too.  

Its called life and you dont get to live forever.

Grow up.

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4 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

You said:

"The worse some people had was a 6 month paid holiday on furlough.  

Its not hurting everyone the same way."

Then somehow called me out for belittling what others have had to deal with?

Like I said, it's been shit for everyone. 

So you think everyone has been impacted equally ? 

Its pretty clear to everyone with half a brain cell it has not.

Posters on here where literally saying how good its been being on furlough and having a six month holiday.  

Edited by Barry Fish
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6 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

One thought experiment I was taught once is fairly enlightening when you see people saying things like "6000 avoidable deaths is an acceptable price to pay for reopening a few weeks earlier" - instead of assuming they are COVID deaths, assume instead that you live under an evil totalitarian government, and that before they re-open, they're going execute 6000 people in the population, completely at random. It's a lottery. There's no way to increase or decrease your chance, no-one is more or less at risk that anyone else, could be you, could be your partner, or your kids.

If you still think its worth it (and that's not an unreasonable position) then you're coming from a dispassionate, scientific place. But if it starts to make you feel uncomfortable, it's because you have some confidence that it's really unlikely one of the 6000 people will be you or someone you care about. And so you're only in favour because you think it won't impact you. 

And I know COVID doesn't target everyone equally and kids won't die from it and so on - that's kind of the point of the thought experiment - if you're only in favour of unlocking because of that, it's because you're convinced it'll be other people, not you.

put then all diseases ( and driving e.t.c) have preventable deaths we dont keep restrictions in for because of wider economic reasons. 

 

If you get too focused on the tragedy of individual deaths, you cant really be in govt. you have to look at other issues

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7 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

I think as a nation we need to work out where our line is between preventable and non preventable deaths, and somehow decide what is acceptable and what isn't 

The logical next steps from trying to prevent every covid death is trying to prevent every flu death. We know we can, so why don't we? Why does a covid death mean more just because its novel? They're families who lose someone too. 

Masks can eliminate the flu we're told but is that really going to be the case with indoor venues open, maybe even without social distancing, then people going to see their elderly relatives, meeting up at Christmas etc? We could restrict our way to not killing those tens of thousands of people every year, and take away the NHS's biggest. Should we? Why not, just because it was acceptable before?

Not saying I have strong feelings either way - just putting it all out there as a discussion point. 

yeah...and this is it...it's out there now...before we had all these people dying from flu and it wasn't really discussed or thought about much....but now we have to actually ask how many deaths is acceptable? It's not a very easy question to answer.

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