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When will this shit end?

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2 minutes ago, fatyeti24 said:

Melvin's bosses must have had a word

I can't find it anywhere online now; completely missed it. 

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2 minutes ago, Homer said:

Johnson apparently caught out wearing an earpiece at PMQs - straight after saying he was taking control of everything

2B45FEB4-F7C5-4480-95C1-DE2C6C78947E.jpeg

No fucking way? Seriously?

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8 minutes ago, semmtexx said:

Can’t quite remember where I saw the analysis but pretty sure when you look at numbers etc the Scottish mps didn't change the overall winner and the majorities that were achieved were still reasonable. 

If every one of the 46 SNP MPS was replaced by a Labour MP, the tory majority would be erm 80. If the 6 Scottish Tory MPs were replaced by Labour MPs then the Tory majority would be 68. The fact that Scotland has only one Scottish MP is a huge embarrassment to Labour and would need to change if they are to have an overall single party majority or even be the largest party in a split parliament, however the Tory majority in 2019 was due to the defection of the labour vote in the Midlands and North of England.

Brexit and the tactics of the Brexit Party was a major influence, but it would be wrong of Labour to assume that the voters will return, that was the mistake they made in Scotland assuming that the SNP vote was a protest vote against Blair/Brown back in 2010.

 

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3 minutes ago, jparx said:

No fucking way? Seriously?

As much as you can trust anything on twitter. There is also video of whatever this is in his ear trendihg

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25 minutes ago, semmtexx said:

Can’t quite remember where I saw the analysis but pretty sure when you look at numbers etc the Scottish mps didn't change the overall winner and the majorities that were achieved were still reasonable. 

It was infuriating listening to this line during the 2014 Referendum when the Government of the day, the coalition would have been a Tory majority if you removed the Scottish seats.

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OK so this isn't my research but it does suggest what I said was (sort of!) correct. 

Don't deny that Labour need to get their act together and get Scottish voters back on side though. 

1945 Labour govt (Attlee)

————————————

Labour majority: 146

Labour majority without any Scottish MPs in Parliament: 143

NO CHANGE WITHOUT SCOTTISH MPS

 

 

1950 Labour govt (Attlee)

————————————

Labour majority: 5

Without Scottish MPs: 2

NO CHANGE

 

 

1951 Conservative govt (Churchill/Eden)

——————————————————–

Conservative majority: 17

Without Scottish MPs: 16

NO CHANGE

 

 

1955 Conservative govt (Eden/Macmillan)

——————————————————–

Conservative majority: 60

Without Scottish MPs: 61

NO CHANGE

 

 

1959 Conservative govt (Macmillan/Douglas-Home)

————————————————————————

Conservative majority: 100

Without Scottish MPs: 109

NO CHANGE

 

 

1964 Labour govt (Wilson)

————————————

Labour majority: 4

Without Scottish MPs: -11

CHANGE: LABOUR MAJORITY TO CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY OF 1

(Con 280, Lab 274, Lib 5)

 

 

1966 Labour govt (Wilson)

————————————

Labour majority: 98

Without Scottish MPs: 77

NO CHANGE

 

 

1970 Conservative govt (Heath)

——————————————–

Conservative majority: 30

Without Scottish MPs: 55

NO CHANGE

 

 

1974 Minority Labour govt (Wilson)

————————————————

Labour majority: -33

Without Scottish MPs: -42

POSSIBLE CHANGE – LABOUR MINORITY TO CONSERVATIVE MINORITY

(Without Scots: Con 276, Lab 261, Lib 11, Others 16)

 

 

1974b Labour govt (Wilson/Callaghan)

—————————————————–

Labour majority: 3

Without Scottish MPs: -8

CHANGE: LABOUR MAJORITY TO LABOUR MINORITY

(Lab 278 Con 261 Lib 10 others 15)

 

 

1979 Conservative govt (Thatcher)

————————————————

Conservative majority: 43

Without Scottish MPs: 70

NO CHANGE

 

 

1983 Conservative govt (Thatcher)

————————————————

Conservative majority: 144

Without Scottish MPs: 174

NO CHANGE

 

 

1987 Conservative govt (Thatcher/Major)

——————————————————

Conservative majority: 102

Without Scottish MPs: 154

NO CHANGE

 

 

1992 Conservative govt (Major)

———————————————

Conservative majority: 21

Without Scottish MPs: 71

NO CHANGE

 

 

1997 Labour govt (Blair)

———————————–

Labour majority: 179

Without Scottish MPs: 139

NO CHANGE

 

 

2001 Labour govt (Blair)

———————————–

Labour majority: 167

Without Scottish MPs: 129

NO CHANGE

 

 

2005 Labour govt (Blair/Brown)

——————————————–

Labour majority: 66

Without Scottish MPs: 43

NO CHANGE

 

 

2010 Coalition govt (Cameron)

——————————————

Conservative majority: -38

Without Scottish MPs: 19

CHANGE: CON-LIB COALITION TO CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY

Edited by semmtexx

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Means that Labour have other work to do to win again. 

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Accept that the change in majorities may have led to changes in policies though. 

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1 hour ago, Homer said:

Johnson apparently caught out wearing an earpiece at PMQs - straight after saying he was taking control of everything

2B45FEB4-F7C5-4480-95C1-DE2C6C78947E.jpeg

If true, that is a complete joke. He’s a lame duck PM. 

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Interested in your thoughts on this toilet duck. Seems to indicate a higher than expected community immunity based on common cold?

 

 

 

 

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34 minutes ago, semmtexx said:

Means that Labour have other work to do to win again. 

Yes they do, and us in Scotland especially need to win back the many voters who have deserted us in traditional labour areas and moved to the nationalists. A few decades ago the snp moved to the left, designed to increase their votes in the central belt. Labour didn’t grasp the significance of this until it was too late.  In fact the snp used to be known as the tartan Tories!  Labour needs Scottish MPs, I would much rather have an opposition or government made up of labour MPs than a coalition of labour and nationalists who will set conditions for their support,   

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2 hours ago, chuckles07 said:

 

Hi Neil. Do you have a copy of these, both links seem to have been taken down. I wonder if someone at no. 10 is not happy and has intervened. Full capacity may be a lot lower than what has been assumed......

I don't have a copy, sorry.

I've just checked my mail for the first time in a few hours, and have found a request from FR to take it down (so I have). It says "we have a few amends to make our side", tho sounds like an updated version will be published somewhen soon-ish.

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4 minutes ago, Neil said:

I don't have a copy, sorry.

I've just checked my mail for the first time in a few hours, and have found a request from FR to take it down (so I have). It says "we have a few amends to make our side", tho sounds like an updated version will be published somewhen soon-ish.

Thanks Neil. That is interesting. I wonder if Melvin has been bollocked for being so forthright in using testing in that way. Would be keen to see the new announcement, should there be one, compared to the original one.........

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36 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Interested in your thoughts on this toilet duck. Seems to indicate a higher than expected community immunity based on common cold?

 

 

 

 

Howdy,

Had a quick read of the paper, very interesting stuff indeed! It starts to solidify ideas that have been floating around for a while (I wondered at the outset whether the relative resistance of children to this virus was rooted in their frequent exposure to other common coronaviruses... certainly more frequent and recent exposure than many adults...somewhere in this thread or one of the previous ones is a comment from me on them being little coronavirus factories!...I'm sure there are a bunch of other reasons too, especially pre-existing conditions and also how mature and immature immune systems respond to things). Cross reactivity with immune responses elicited by common colds is certainly a complication that was considered in the evaluation of the serology tests and it is tempting to speculate (and now with more precise information) that it plays a role in determining whether you develop mild/asymptomatic disease, or more serious symptoms. I joked to a colleague recently that the Jenner Institute should look a bit more closely at their name for the solution to the problem (ok, joked is a bit strong, it's a very nerdy observation!...but Edward Jenner's approach to vaccination for smallpox was to use cowpox (which is where the word vaccine comes from), a related but less deadly virus...obviously a vaccine that doesn't cause any disease is the best approach, but maybe if we all got a dose of common coronavirus, we could ride this one out). The paper doesn't prove this would work of course, and their data on common cold history is patchy (self-reported data almost always is), but they do see significant cross-reactivity between the immune response to other coronaviruses and those elicited in patients who caught this one but didn't need to go to hospital (and previous mouse work on SARS suggested the same thing happened with that virus as well). So, very interesting data, certainly sheds some light on what is currently being colourfully referred to as "immunological dark matter" (this isn't a real term by the way, but I know what he means by it...something certainly seems to make some individuals intrinsically immune to SARS-CoV-2) and it might also help us at least partly explain how infection progresses differently in different individuals...what it means for where we currently are is too early to say though. 

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2 hours ago, fatyeti24 said:

Melvin's bosses must have had a word.

Isn’t Melvin the boss

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1 minute ago, Toilet Duck said:

Howdy,

Had a quick read of the paper, very interesting stuff indeed! It starts to solidify ideas that have been floating around for a while (I wondered at the outset whether the relative resistance of children to this virus was rooted in their frequent exposure to other common coronaviruses... certainly more frequent and recent exposure than many adults...somewhere in this thread or one of the previous ones is a comment from me on them being little coronavirus factories!...I'm sure there are a bunch of other reasons too, especially pre-existing conditions and also how mature and immature immune systems respond to things). Cross reactivity with immune responses elicited by common colds is certainly a complication that was considered in the evaluation of the serology tests and it is tempting to speculate (and now with more precise information) that it plays a role in determining whether you develop mild/asymptomatic disease, or more serious symptoms. I joked to a colleague recently that the Jenner Institute should look a bit more closely at their name for the solution to the problem (ok, joked is a bit strong, it's a very nerdy observation!...but Edward Jenner's approach to vaccination for smallpox was to use cowpox (which is where the word vaccine comes from), a related but less deadly virus...obviously a vaccine that doesn't cause any disease is the best approach, but maybe if we all got a dose of common coronavirus, we could ride this one out). The paper doesn't prove this would work of course, and their data on common cold history is patchy (self-reported data almost always is), but they do see significant cross-reactivity between the immune response to other coronaviruses and those elicited in patients who caught this one but didn't need to go to hospital (and previous mouse work on SARS suggested the same thing happened with that virus as well). So, very interesting data, certainly sheds some light on what is currently being colourfully referred to as "immunological dark matter" (this isn't a real term by the way, but I know what he means by it...something certainly seems to make some individuals intrinsically immune to SARS-CoV-2) and it might also help us at least partly explain how infection progresses differently in different individuals...what it means for where we currently are is too early to say though. 

Cool thanks. Very interesting, seems positive but wanted to check I hadnt misunderstood.  

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Deaths up today from yesterday...outside the usual pattern of a consistent fall throughout the week.  A concern, or an outlier due to recent changes in the reporting?  Hoping the latter in that increase in deaths doesn't seem to be reflected in increase in cases/hospitalisations. 

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1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

so...all this over a bloody cold?!

😜

Though if you had a cold recently, it might help...course, you don't know whether that cold you had over the winter was a coronavirus, or a rhinovirus, or a respiratory syncytial virus or an adenovirus or any number of other causes of the common cold...so, I wouldn't attach any certainty to it! 

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2 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

😜

Though if you had a cold recently, it might help...course, you don't know whether that cold you had over the winter was a coronavirus, or a rhinovirus, or a respiratory syncytial virus or an adenovirus or any number of other causes of the common cold...so, I wouldn't attach any certainty to it! 

Could this bode well in terms of reducing a second wave in the winter months when people start getting all the usual viruses again?

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10 minutes ago, Cream Soda said:

Could this bode well in terms of reducing a second wave in the winter months when people start getting all the usual viruses again?

Honestly, it would be speculation...it is entirely possible of course, but I wouldn't pin all my hopes on it!

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