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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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The Hancock thing makes full reopening on 19th July a certainty according to Stephen Bush (copy/paste as behind a paywall):

Can Matt Hancock survive? The Health Secretary has conceded that he broke lockdown regulations while having an affair with his aide, Gina Colangelo. But the Prime Minister's spokesperson has said that Boris Johnson has accepted te apology and considers the matter "closed".

I wrote this morning that there were several reasons Hancock was likely to survive, which I wrote about in more detail in my morning email. But there are three important changes to his stature that have big implications for this government and for government policy in general.

The first is that Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock no longer ‘come as a pair’. The biggest reason why Dom Cummings’ attacks on Hancock were not going to land is that for Johnson, to fire Hancock would be to admit a degree of fault on his part, too. While I think firing someone for ‘having an affair in an unprofessional way’ will be highly embarrassing for the Prime Minister, the extent of the damage is ‘have a bad PMQs’. Up until now, firing Matt Hancock would have meant ‘reopening any number of questions about your handling of the pandemic’.

I still think he is unlikely to do at the next reshuffle, not least because I think it is unlikely there will be a next reshuffle (the Prime Minister did not enjoy the last one and it did not go well politically speaking) but it’s worth noting that the politics of getting shot of Hancock are less fraught for the Prime Minister this afternoon than they were yesterday.

The second change is that it surely means the final end of all coronavirus restrictions in England on 19 July come what may. The parliamentary party is already fractious enough as it is, but the political prospect of a Health Secretary who admits he broke the regulations extends them is just, I think, untenable.

And the third change is what it does in terms of the biggest and most important conflict in this government: the long-running one between Boris Johnson and his Chancellor, Rishi Sunak. The underlying problem is that Sunak is a fiscal hawk and the Prime Minister is not: this has been at the centre of almost every big row in the government. It took what one Treasury official described to me as “Herculean” efforts on the parts of the Chancellor to deliver his March budget, which despite how it was presented in much of the media was a pretty austere one. But the Treasury has always known that it was just the first part in a long series of battles, the next big one will be in the autumn, when the comprehensive spending review has to turn the Chancellor’s budget promises into tangible cuts in spending.

One of Sunak’s biggest assets is that Johnson has no ready alternatives. Chancellor of the Exchequer is one of the hardest roles in government to fill. The list of available candidates who could actually do the job is not long. In a recent repeat of the exercise I conducted during the 2019 Conservative leadership and 2020 Labour leadership elections, I asked a large number of officials, former Treasury ministers and so on who they thought could do the role.

That exercise produced the following list: Greg Clark, Kwasi Kwarteng, Liz Truss, Steve Barclay, Greg Hands, Sajid Javid and Matt Hancock.  Of that list, five - Truss, Kwarteng, Barclay, Hands and Javid - would just represent the same problem for Johnson that he has with his current Chancellor, while Clark would also be a politically difficult fit for other reasons.

There is really only one candidate in the parliamentary party if Johnson finds himself chafing at the fiscal straitjacket Sunak has put him in: Matt Hancock. As of today, that isn’t really a tenable proposition. Even though the Health Secretary looks certain to survive this story, the political balance of forces at the top of the Conservative party has been changed and changed significantly.

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'No substantial outbreaks' of COVID following pilot entertainment events - and just 28 cases recorded

Among the 58,000 people who attended mass events as part of the government's Events Research Programme, only 28 cases of coronavirus were reported. 

These included club nights in Liverpool, Download Festival, the FA Cup Final at Wembley and the Snooker World Championships.

 

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From the government events test events data.....
""Direct evidence of the risk of coronavirus transmission at specific types of events can not be drawn from Phase I of the pilots given the low prevalence of COVID-19 at the time of the pilot events; low levels of pre- and post-event PCR return and the limited scale, scope and design of pilots. Ahead of publishing this report, the Science Board has made a statement that it was not possible to gather direct evidence of transmission and these numbers should not be interpreted as such. The cases recorded are likely an underestimate of the true number given (a) some attendees managed to enter events without proof of LFT negative results, and (b) post-event PCR return rates were lower than expected. In addition, the studies did not include comparison groups, thus making it difficult to attribute infection to attending events.""
 
In other words:
1) As cases were low the events could never actually conclude anything
2) There was no obligation to return the PCR tests and just 15% actually bothered to do both
3) Despite all the measures in place many managed to gain entry without showing a negative LFT test result (24% at the snooker!)
 
Conclusion
The government yet again show they cannot organise a piss up anywhere where beer is available.
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7 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Called it months ago and said the test events wouldn't tell us anything.  It was pretty evident they where pointless. 

Its besides the point anyway.  We don't need test events to work out the likely risk factors 15+ months into all this.  We know the transmission risks, we know what the vaccines do and we know what other factors can be put in place for the ones you can't or won't be vaccinated.

Its time to make some calls on all this and stop fucking around.

Every lets go for it or introduce the covid passport.

More nearer the end which gives more hope..... but then also refers to Phase 3 of trials (we are only just starting ohse 2 ffs)

""Based on findings from Phase I of the ERP, we will update existing guidance, including organised events guidance which is designed to help event organisers and local authorities in England ensure that events are able to go ahead as safely as possible. The guidance will be applicable to any organised event or gathering of any size, both indoors and outdoors. We recommend event organisers consider the risk management advice included in the Organised Events Guidance alongside relevant sector specific COVID-19 guidance. The risk management advice in the guidance will set out a range of options for proportionately managing potential risks in relation to the transmission of COVID-19, but will not remove or replace duties and obligations under the Health and Safety at Work etc Act 1974. Instead, it will provide information to assist event organisers and local authorities in England in ensuring that events are able to go ahead as safely as possible in their area.""
 
That gives lots of hope..........................
Perhaps less so this bit that refers to Phases 2 and 3 of trials (we are just starting Phase 2) but it is still promising.
 
"The UK government continues to prioritise scientific evidence as the key tool to enable our return to normality and we will therefore continue to progress research to inform events policy. As we look forward to an anticipated move to Step 4 of the Roadmap and a return to greater normality, the government will incorporate and continue to build on findings from Phase I of this internationally acclaimed initiative by running Phase II and III of the programme. These will provide the opportunity to generate further evidence particularly on transmission, using larger events running closer to full capacity and testing different settings. Phase II and III will both inform further improvements to guidance for events organisers at and beyond Step 4 of the roadmap, building on recommendations from Phase I. Phase III pilots will provide evidence about using COVID-status certification in real-world environments via use of the NHS App, developing learnings on operationality and the impact on public health.""

I will not argue against covid certification as I have always said it is the only obvious way forward - I don't like having t have it but it is the only way to mitigate risk and risk mitigation will be needed for the foreseeable future.
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7 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

More nearer the end which gives more hope..... but then also refers to Phase 3 of trials (we are only just starting ohse 2 ffs)

""Based on findings from Phase I of the ERP, we will update existing guidance, including organised events guidance which is designed to help event organisers and local authorities in England ensure that events are able to go ahead as safely as possible. The guidance will be applicable to any organised event or gathering of any size, both indoors and outdoors. We recommend event organisers consider the risk management advice included in the Organised Events Guidance alongside relevant sector specific COVID-19 guidance. The risk management advice in the guidance will set out a range of options for proportionately managing potential risks in relation to the transmission of COVID-19, but will not remove or replace duties and obligations under the Health and Safety at Work etc Act 1974. Instead, it will provide information to assist event organisers and local authorities in England in ensuring that events are able to go ahead as safely as possible in their area.""
 
That gives lots of hope..........................
Perhaps less so this bit that refers to Phases 2 and 3 of trials (we are just starting Phase 2) but it is still promising.
 
"The UK government continues to prioritise scientific evidence as the key tool to enable our return to normality and we will therefore continue to progress research to inform events policy. As we look forward to an anticipated move to Step 4 of the Roadmap and a return to greater normality, the government will incorporate and continue to build on findings from Phase I of this internationally acclaimed initiative by running Phase II and III of the programme. These will provide the opportunity to generate further evidence particularly on transmission, using larger events running closer to full capacity and testing different settings. Phase II and III will both inform further improvements to guidance for events organisers at and beyond Step 4 of the roadmap, building on recommendations from Phase I. Phase III pilots will provide evidence about using COVID-status certification in real-world environments via use of the NHS App, developing learnings on operationality and the impact on public health.""

I will not argue against covid certification as I have always said it is the only obvious way forward - I don't like having t have it but it is the only way to mitigate risk and risk mitigation will be needed for the foreseeable future.

The minister said in Parliament the other day they are just starting Phase 3. Phase 2 was Download etc 

I think they will allow the festivals to go ahead in August with testing and or vaccination status. 

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5 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

 

I was wondering earlier are they counting attendances at A&E? Was all over the news this morning so many parents are panicking because their kid has a cold and temp and are taking them to A&E thinking its covid. 

Its stretching the NHS for no good reason. The fear instilled into people has caused this side effect. We need big visual campaign to get people to phone 111 and just give the kids some paracetamol before thinking about A&E. 

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