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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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2 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

There is no zero covid approach 

Some of the nerds definitely want one. Fake SAGE and Susan milne. There was that doctors body which wanted social distancing for the foreseeable future

 

It's clear what some of the health guys are trying to push

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1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

That’s more of an issue with Johnson over promising on things and not delivering, take a look at his stint as London mayor for example. A better leader wouldn’t make those promises. I agree it’s frustrating and annoying though. 

But your guy Sadiq Khan wants to fully reopen in June. So it's clear where he sees public opinion going 

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1 minute ago, zahidf said:

Some of the nerds definitely want one. Fake SAGE and Susan milne. There was that doctors body which wanted social distancing for the foreseeable future

 

It's clear what some of the health guys are trying to push

We aren’t getting 1 … it’s not happening 

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1 hour ago, efcfanwirral said:

That's what I thought. Reason I was asking is it ties into a conversation earlier - if the NHS can't cope really with any covid patients, surely elimination is the only way we can avoid winter lockdowns permanently, and what Chris whitty said about living with it and acceptable deaths (inferring there will be hospitalisations too) is impossible? Yet elimination is impossible too. So we're a bit stuck....

The NHS can cope with Covid patients provided they are low in number. This makes it possible to clinically manage them in isolation  units but obviously these have a finite capacity. When this is exceeded covid patients have to be accommodated elsewhere, usually on acute respiratory units. Today Mrs L's respiratory unit has lost 25% of its capacity so it can accept covid patients, one sole covid patient at present. Those patients moved to accommodate that covid patient have had to go to other wards, thus affecting their normal patient in-take ability. Similarly a profusion of very sick covid patients clogs up CCU and HDU, thus curtailing their ability to accept other patients, in particular those who would require post-operative care on these units.

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4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Some of the nerds definitely want one. Fake SAGE and Susan milne. There was that doctors body which wanted social distancing for the foreseeable future

 

It's clear what some of the health guys are trying to push

Health?

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I think the point about a clear metric/metrics we need to achieve to full unlocking is correct. To me, on instinct alone, it doesn’t feel like we are a million miles away, but maybe a few weeks of patience to make sure we don’t keep growing and growing with hospitalisation. 
 

Waiting for all adults to be double vaccinated is, in my view, a silly target as the younger agents *could* get long covid or die from covid, but it’s very unlikely. Probably more chance of road traffic accidents or suicides in that age group than a covid death?

 

Trust the vaccines we have to get us out of it. 
 

If we can’t have much covid bounce to cause the NHS to crumble, then we finally need to have the correct conversation about luck of public service funding and an increase in taxes - it in itself is an investment in our economy and people. 

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5 minutes ago, Lycra said:

The NHS can cope with Covid patients provided they are low in number. This makes it possible to clinically manage them in isolation  units but obviously these have a finite capacity. When this is exceeded covid patients have to be accommodated elsewhere, usually on acute respiratory units. Today Mrs L's respiratory unit has lost 25% of its capacity so it can accept covid patients, one sole covid patient at present. Those patients moved to accommodate that covid patient have had to go to other wards, thus affecting their normal patient in-take ability. Similarly a profusion of very sick covid patients clogs up CCU and HDU, thus curtailing their ability to accept other patients, in particular those who would require post-operative care on these units.

To me, that’s clear the NHS has been under funded for a long period and as a society we need to pay higher taxes to fund a health service that can look after people. 

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8 minutes ago, JB15 said:

To me, that’s clear the NHS has been under funded for a long period and as a society we need to pay higher taxes to fund a health service that can look after people. 

100%. I would pay more in taxes for a better funded, equipped and maintained NHS. In fact I would say more in taxes for better public services all round.

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14 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Not a rise of 40% in seven days, including areas that don't have any Delta outbreaks.

Fair point. I'm just looking at the actual numbers and not a the percentage rise. 

If it stays around 7k mark for another couple of days that 40% will drop a lot if its a rolling 7 day percentage? 

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Just now, Havors said:

Fair point. I'm just looking at the actual numbers and not a the percentage rise. 

If it stays around 7k mark for another couple of days that 40% will drop a lot if its a rolling 7 day percentage? 

Yeah, it may well. I'm cautiously hopeful that the tide will turn. However, I am cautious about looking too much at the national picture, as there have been some big geographical differences over the last few weeks - if we have some areas taking off with Delta whilst other are still decreasing because it's not reached those areas yet - then the big rises in some areas are masked by what's happening elsewhere, when the lowish areas may still take off. On the other hand, the longer other areas go without being infected, the more chance they have for vaccines bed in and make outbreaks harder.

I've been burnt a few times by trying to see a pattern in the daily numbers, but sometimes it really does show the way. I'm really encouraged by the slowdown in Greater Manchester yesterday.  If I had to bet, I'd say we'll see an increased flattening over the next few days, but won't be flat over 7 days.

I'm increasingly confident this extension will do the job.

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57 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

100%. I would pay more in taxes for a better funded, equipped and maintained NHS. In fact I would say more in taxes for better public services all round.

Around 60p of every £ you pay in council tax goes on social care. I'd argue there is actually a need to educate people to financially plan for old age so that the cost of social care doesnt wholly land on the state as this problem is only getting worse as people live longer.

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6 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Around 60p of every £ you pay in council tax goes on social care. I'd argue there is actually a need to educate people to financially plan for old age so that the cost of social care doesnt wholly land on the state as this problem is only getting worse as people live longer.

I'd argue we need to tax the rich.

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12 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Around 60p of every £ you pay in council tax goes on social care. I'd argue there is actually a need to educate people to financially plan for old age so that the cost of social care doesnt wholly land on the state as this problem is only getting worse as people live longer.

We could always do with more education on financial matters. However I would say more tax on the rich and form a fully funded National Care Service that runs exactly like the NHS does but for social care (which would mean taxes go up for everyone too).

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16 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Yeah, it may well. I'm cautiously hopeful that the tide will turn. However, I am cautious about looking too much at the national picture, as there have been some big geographical differences over the last few weeks - if we have some areas taking off with Delta whilst other are still decreasing because it's not reached those areas yet - then the big rises in some areas are masked by what's happening elsewhere, when the lowish areas may still take off. On the other hand, the longer other areas go without being infected, the more chance they have for vaccines bed in and make outbreaks harder.

I've been burnt a few times by trying to see a pattern in the daily numbers, but sometimes it really does show the way. I'm really encouraged by the slowdown in Greater Manchester yesterday.  If I had to bet, I'd say we'll see an increased flattening over the next few days, but won't be flat over 7 days.

I'm increasingly confident this extension will do the job.

Completely agree with all this - I'm assuming the ending of the 4 week extension would be confirmed the week before (12th July) 

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Just now, Ozanne said:

We could always do with more education on financial matters. However I would say more tax on the rich and form a fully funded National Care Service that runs exactly like the NHS does but for social care. 

One of my biggest bug bears is when people complain they have to sell their house to fund their care.  As if the state should pick up the tab because they want to leave their house to their middle aged children.  

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