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Chrisp1986

When will this shit end?

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Skimmed through bits of it and it certainly sounds interesting. The road map strikes me as a bit ambitious but hey, that kinda thinking is needed at the minute. It would be a bitter pill to swallow having to download the dodgy app to attend Glastonbury mind you. 

I certainly feel much more confident now than a few months ago that 2021 will see the return of gigs and festivals. Whether it's this plan or another, I feel fairly confident something will be in place with or without a vaccine.

 

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4 minutes ago, jparx said:

The road map strikes me as a bit ambitious

but probably less ambitious than trying to create 3M+ new jobs in other sectors cos live music and eating out has died.

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Just now, Neil said:

but probably less ambitious than trying to create 3M+ new jobs in other sectors cos live music and eating out has died.

Absolutely - hence why we need that sort of thinking! We're in a period where crazy solutions are absolutely necessary.

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10 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Just had a thought about vaccines. This is a question for professor @Toilet Duck

Let's say we get this Oxford vaccine in October and it mainly stops the virus from killing those of us that have it, but it doesn't offer full protection and doesn't have much of an impact on infectivity, but still much better than nothing so we get the jab.

Then in, say January, we get access to another vaccine that does stop it properly, kills the viral load everywhere and stops the spread.  How are the different vaccines likely to interact? Will we end up with confused antibodies? Will the efficaciousness of one vaccine be degraded by the other? Or are they more additive and we just have effectively double protection?

In other words, is there any scenario where getting the Oxford vaccine could be a bad move if it stops something much better from working properly soon afterwards?

Howdy, apologies for the delay, Wednesday mornings are busy, we have our lab meeting! 

So, in theory, inter-vaccine interference can influence how one vaccine impacts on another, but in general, these things are tested as part of the vaccine development and it's not a widespread phenomenon. Many vaccines can be combined safely and routinely are. All sorts of things can influence how well a vaccine works (interference from the actual virus you are trying to protect against, drugs, even the immunological makeup of the individual). The antibodies that we make are generally "polyclonal" i.e. they are directed at different parts of the virus (and even those generated via vaccination tend to be like this), so while potential for interaction exists, it's more likely that the immunological response elicited would just add to the pool of antibodies targeting coronaviruses. This can be a good thing, for example, repeated flu vaccinations with different strains builds up a pool of anti-influenza immunity in an individual (this is exactly why swine flu turned out to be less dangerous than it might have been since high risk populations had loads of prior flu shots). So, if the Oxford vaccine is safe and protects against potentially fatal complications and another more protective vaccine comes along later, then I wouldn't be too worried about getting the new one. My suspicion is though that in the timeframes outlined, access to both would be unlikely. High risk individuals would be more likely to get the first vaccine, with the rest of us getting the newer one later on. That's a scenario that would work though, since high risk individuals would have protection from serious disease, which would be bolstered by herd immunity in the general population gained via the next vaccine. 

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6 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Howdy, apologies for the delay, Wednesday mornings are busy, we have our lab meeting! 

So, in theory, inter-vaccine interference can influence how one vaccine impacts on another, but in general, these things are tested as part of the vaccine development and it's not a widespread phenomenon. Many vaccines can be combined safely and routinely are. All sorts of things can influence how well a vaccine works (interference from the actual virus you are trying to protect against, drugs, even the immunological makeup of the individual). The antibodies that we make are generally "polyclonal" i.e. they are directed at different parts of the virus (and even those generated via vaccination tend to be like this), so while potential for interaction exists, it's more likely that the immunological response elicited would just add to the pool of antibodies targeting coronaviruses. This can be a good thing, for example, repeated flu vaccinations with different strains builds up a pool of anti-influenza immunity in an individual (this is exactly why swine flu turned out to be less dangerous than it might have been since high risk populations had loads of prior flu shots). So, if the Oxford vaccine is safe and protects against potentially fatal complications and another more protective vaccine comes along later, then I wouldn't be too worried about getting the new one. My suspicion is though that in the timeframes outlined, access to both would be unlikely. High risk individuals would be more likely to get the first vaccine, with the rest of us getting the newer one later on. That's a scenario that would work though, since high risk individuals would have protection from serious disease, which would be bolstered by herd immunity in the general population gained via the next vaccine. 

You never need to apologise to us!  Great answer, thank you very much.

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27 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

It’s not that crazy: https://ajn.timesofisrael.com/israel-invents-one-minute-coronavirus-breath-test/

Surely an instant test would make festivals completely viable? There would be some logistical issues in terms of queues, sure, but not beyond the realms of possibility.

Very interesting! I work with a group that has been developing tests using exhaled breath condensate for cancer detection (It works very well!). I actually reviewed a submission by them to use this approach for detecting coronavirus (since they wanted to work with the virus in the university, it had to pass through our biosafety committee) and they are testing it at the moment. It's a different approach to this one in that it actually runs a rapid PCR, so it detects viral nucleic acids, whereas this one is based on resonance (which would be even quicker), so validation of the accuracy of this test is the key to it working, but it's exactly the type of game changer we need!. I guess the key question once accuracy is proven is whether you are infectious if you are below the detection threshold...if not, game on!

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43 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

It’s not that crazy: https://ajn.timesofisrael.com/israel-invents-one-minute-coronavirus-breath-test/

Surely an instant test would make festivals completely viable? There would be some logistical issues in terms of queues, sure, but not beyond the realms of possibility.

What would happen if you failed the test in the queue at something like Glastonbury though? Not allowed in at all?

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1 minute ago, ModernMan said:

What would happen if you failed the test in the queue at something like Glastonbury though? Not allowed in at all?

You would be sent to Barnard Castle for a jolly instead. 

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1 minute ago, ModernMan said:

What would happen if you failed the test in the queue at something like Glastonbury though? Not allowed in at all?

I guess that would be the idea, yeah. Then there's a question of refunds.

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3 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

PMQs .... ive remembered its on this week :) 

Just got back from a bike ride - timed it to get back in time! Should be interesting.

Go in with Cummings first to get him on the back foot, then get stuck in re track and trace, testing figures, etc.

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3 minutes ago, ModernMan said:

What would happen if you failed the test in the queue at something like Glastonbury though? Not allowed in at all?

I would assume unfortunately not. it would be shit of course, but at the same time a way for a festival to viably go ahead.

Individually depending on how much you love Glasto you’d probably want to try and self isolate a week beforehand, and try and get a personal test at the last possible moment as well to limit disappointment.

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton

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2 minutes ago, Homer said:

Chamber not looking all that busy yet.

It’s still limited to 50 MPs in the Chamber. 
 

PMQs guys, common Starmer.

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Just now, Ozanne said:

It’s still limited to 50 MPs in the Chamber. 
 

PMQs guys, common Starmer.

Ah thanks, was wondering what the deal was. Will that really make that much of a difference for Johnson then?!

When are they planning on bringing the numbers up following yesterday's vote?

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1 minute ago, Homer said:

Ah thanks, was wondering what the deal was. Will that really make that much of a difference for Johnson then?!

When are they planning on bringing the numbers up following yesterday's vote?

It’s separate as the speaker determines the rules for the chamber and has limited the number of MPs. Yesterday’s vote was just about future voting for MPs. 

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Starmer straight in - I would like to register my disgust re Flloyd killing, and am surprised the PM hasn't

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17 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I would assume unfortunately not. it would be shit of course, but at the same time a way for a festival to viably go ahead.

Individually depending on how much you love Glasto you’d probably want to try and self isolate a week beforehand, and try and get a personal test at the last possible moment as well to limit disappointment.

When we are talking about something like this...are we just thinking for the short term?  Next festival or 2?  Or until there is a vaccine?  

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Not like Boris to get angry about being scrutinised....

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23 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I would assume unfortunately not. it would be shit of course, but at the same time a way for a festival to viably go ahead.

Individually depending on how much you love Glasto you’d probably want to try and self isolate a week beforehand, and try and get a personal test at the last possible moment as well to limit disappointment.

I guess so. It would be quite unfair really for people who couldn’t have that much time off or weren’t able to isolate before going. 
 

If it was the only way it’s better than nothing but I’m not sure it would work that well in practice

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1 minute ago, ModernMan said:

I guess so. It would be quite unfair really for people who couldn’t have that much time off or weren’t able to isolate before going. 
 

If it was the only way it’s better than nothing but I’m not sure it would work that well in practice

I think it could really put some people off going.  People who travel miles across the country or even fly from the other side of the world are not going to book time off work and take that risk if they might be turned away at the door.

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