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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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4 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

I'll take any slight good news at the moment! It definitely seems there's a slowing, could this be our wall of vaccination finally coming into effect? 

It could just be the basic truth that growth rate always has a ceiling, simply because there's not an infinite number of people, and so any graph plotting a scary indefinite straight line is always going end up being wrong sooner or later as at a certain point there'll be a lack of suitable people to infect.

We've seen it in Bolton where an initially scary rise in cases levelled off without the NHS being badly hit. I'm still failing to understand why there is an expectation in some places that the rest of the country is going to be so much worse than that - especially as that rise was largely a month ago and so we've done ~15 million more jabs since then.

I've said it before but it remains true on todays numbers - people are panicking over something that was predictable and predicted. This clamour to push the easing of restrictions back is not in any way justified by the numbers.

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1 minute ago, incident said:

It could just be the basic truth that growth rate always has a ceiling, simply because there's not an infinite number of people, and so any graph plotting a scary indefinite straight line is always going end up being wrong sooner or later as at a certain point there'll be a lack of suitable people to infect.

We've seen it in Bolton where an initially scary rise in cases levelled off without the NHS being badly hit. I'm still failing to understand why there is an expectation in some places that the rest of the country is going to be so much worse than that - especially as that rise was largely a month ago and so we've done ~15 million more jabs since then.

I've said it before but it remains true on todays numbers - people are panicking over something that was predictable and predicted. This clamour to push the easing of restrictions back is not in any way justified by the numbers.

This may play out to be the case, hopefully… but I think it’s understandable given the new variant that people are worried and that there’s an entirely justifiable discussion to be had about a bit more caution. If it wasn’t for the new variant, I don’t think that we’d be nearly as concerned by what we’ve seen so far would we?

I do share the concern that we’re heading to a position where these curtailments are seen as an acceptable new normal and I really think that needs to be avoided, but I think it’s certainly justifiable to be trying to, as they say, make sure this time it’s irreversible. 

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1 hour ago, kalifire said:

Only if both vaccine shots are taken. It appears that just one shot provides a poor defence against Delta. 

For infection. Nobody ever claimed these vaccines stop you getting covid. 
One dose is still doing a good job against severe disease and death. 
It’s not perfect, but it’s not bad enough to change course. 

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1 minute ago, Aeroplane Over the Sea said:

This may play out to be the case, hopefully… but I think it’s understandable given the new variant that people are worried and that there’s an entirely justifiable discussion to be had about a bit more caution. If it wasn’t for the new variant, I don’t think that we’d be nearly as concerned by what we’ve seen so far would we?

I do share the concern that we’re heading to a position where these curtailments are seen as an acceptable new normal and I really think that needs to be avoided, but I think it’s certainly justifiable to be trying to, as they say, make sure this time it’s irreversible. 

I think that worrying about specific variants is for the most part a bit of a red herring - if the numbers are going up, they're going up regardless of what variant is at play, and right now we're (Nationally) still tracking below the modelled "best case scenario". Even in the NW region which is higher than the rest of the country, they're only very marginally above that scenario.

The obvious exception to that is the extent that a variant affects vaccine efficacy - but even then it appears the vaccines hold up well enough against Delta. Bolton has had the Delta variant widespread for over 6 weeks now - they've actually had a higher peak infection rate than they did in the January wave - yet despite that the number of people in Hospital seem to have peaked at less than a third of the numbers from January, with those cases said to be on average a lot less severe.

I realise that the evidence from Bolton isn't definitive and is too small a sample size to be guaranteed to scale nationwide - but is there yet any evidence that contradicts it? Anywhere?

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1 hour ago, Barry Fish said:

Reality is the people who really have something to worry about have had two shots and the rest only ever stood a small chance of complications.

That’s not the reality. See here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26

There are still lots of people over 60 who haven’t been fully vaccinated. If you’re suggesting that avoidable deaths are acceptable as a price to pay for ‘normality’, you should say so. 

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Just now, kalifire said:

There are still lots of people over 60 who haven’t been fully vaccinated. If you’re suggesting that avoidable deaths are acceptable as a price to pay for ‘normality’, you should say so. 

Avoidable deaths of people who've actively chosen not to protect themselves and others?

Absolutely - yes - those are acceptable. That's been a societal norm now since forever.

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1 minute ago, kalifire said:

That’s not the reality. See here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26

There are still lots of people over 60 who haven’t been fully vaccinated. If you’re suggesting that avoidable deaths are acceptable as a price to pay for ‘normality’, you should say so. 

He should say naff all. He's become one of the biggest selfish bollocks on this forum over the past week. And was a bit of a twit to put it mildly before. I swear the content is now just to get reactions but no one can be that naive or that much of an arse without doing so.

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18 minutes ago, kalifire said:

If you’re suggesting that avoidable deaths are acceptable as a price to pay for ‘normality’, you should say so. 

Avoidable deaths are acceptable as a price to pay for normality. 
 

Example given: flu deaths in winter, which we know we can restrict our way into nearly eliminating. 

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21 minutes ago, kalifire said:

That’s not the reality. See here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26

There are still lots of people over 60 who haven’t been fully vaccinated. If you’re suggesting that avoidable deaths are acceptable as a price to pay for ‘normality’, you should say so. 

Theyve been offered it. That’s their choice not the entire nations. 

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25 minutes ago, kalifire said:

That’s not the reality. See here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26

There are still lots of people over 60 who haven’t been fully vaccinated. If you’re suggesting that avoidable deaths are acceptable as a price to pay for ‘normality’, you should say so. 

If an over 60 chooses not to get the jab then that's on them. It's their own responsibility and it's also a tiny portion of people in the grand scheme of things. 

 

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