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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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15 minutes ago, incident said:

All those things are just extended death though.

They've been tolerated as a short term measure with an eye to being able to run at full speed in the foreseeable future, but if any of those are kept around past the summer then the economics of the resturant and pub trade will need to dramatically change - meaning they'll need to either lower costs (on what's already a fairly low margin business) or significantly raise prices (which will likely drive customers away).

If any of those things are going to be mandatory past the summer, then the Government would effectively be telling half the hospitality sector to close down entirely. I'm certain that quite a few places are either running at a loss right now or being propped up only by Deliveroo/UE business but are doing so because they believe that they need to ride it out so they can run normally later in the year.

 I do think the various hospitality trade bodies should have got together when the restricted opening thing came back in and agreed that there would be a price hike. Maybe I'm daft but if a restaurant is running at half capacity I'd expect to be paying twice as much, and if it's a temporary measure that's fine.

If demand is genuinely really high, and places are getting booked up every night, they should be charging much more. If pubs are fully booked every evening and complaining they can't break even, they should be upping prices. Though I expect the reality is there's still a lot of hesitancy, and plenty of places will be in for an extended death once allowed to fully reopen anyway. I don't think the demand will be there.

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4 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

All this crap about 'Freedom' day was always for the tabloids and they obliged.

Joe public who read the headlines only think that we will be getting full freedom when we never were.

I wish they were able to just be, as you say, honest about it all.

I would rather know now that there were no festivals happening than sit here and wait while some selected ones were run as 'test events' when they pretty much know they will not happen anyway.

It is almost like they are delaying so that organisers cancel - so like everything, it is not the governments fault.

My thoughts exactly!! They could've said months ago that events were unlikely as I'm sure they knew that was the case. Realism and honesty would be best but of course that won't come from this lot 

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4 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

All this crap about 'Freedom' day was always for the tabloids and they obliged.

Joe public who read the headlines only think that we will be getting full freedom when we never were.

I wish they were able to just be, as you say, honest about it all.

I would rather know now that there were no festivals happening than sit here and wait while some selected ones were run as 'test events' when they pretty much know they will not happen anyway.

It is almost like they are delaying so that organisers cancel - so like everything, it is not the governments fault.

absolutely. as far as I see it (maybe wrong because I am too far away) they have never made a confession towards most industries, especially not the festival/music industry. People (the industry itself and the consumers) never can plan anything - Here Austrian Musician Mira Lu Kovacs said few months ago "It would be nice if governments could tell us what their plan will be or if they have a long term strategy for gigs because this will not go away soon, otherwise we will be here next year too and have no festivals, no concerts". And in the UK (Austria also, but at least they opened up, so to the sorry of the government this includes youth culture to) I can see neither of this. Its always "Perhaps, Perhaps, Perhaps".

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8 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

 I do think the various hospitality trade bodies should have got together when the restricted opening thing came back in and agreed that there would be a price hike. Maybe I'm daft but if a restaurant is running at half capacity I'd expect to be paying twice as much, and if it's a temporary measure that's fine.

If demand is genuinely really high, and places are getting booked up every night, they should be charging much more. If pubs are fully booked every evening and complaining they can't break even, they should be upping prices. Though I expect the reality is there's still a lot of hesitancy, and plenty of places will be in for an extended death once allowed to fully reopen anyway. I don't think the demand will be there.

I think there's an important distinction to be made there between desire and capability.

The demand  can be there (and EOTHO showed it definitely is) but a huge amount of people just won't able to afford / justify it anymore if their meal for a family of 4 goes from £60 to £100, regardless of whether they want to or not. Or it'll have to become a treat for once every few months rather than every few weeks.

I think you'd be in a tiny minority in expecting to be paying twice as much. Maybe near unique. People don't generally think in those terms.

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18 minutes ago, incident said:

I think there's an important distinction to be made there between desire and capability.

The demand  can be there (and EOTHO showed it definitely is) but a huge amount of people just won't able to afford / justify it anymore if their meal for a family of 4 goes from £60 to £100, regardless of whether they want to or not. Or it'll have to become a treat for once every few months rather than every few weeks.

I think you'd be in a tiny minority in expecting to be paying twice as much. Maybe near unique. People don't generally think in those terms.

Well yeah, if it's twice the price people would only be able to afford to go half as often. Which would be fine as the restaurants only have half the capacity, and if the "everyone wants us to open up now" crowd are right, demand is already what it was pre-pandemic so it's not a problem.

(Obviously there's a lot more too in than that, in that people make purchases based on perceived value and all that - but I think had the re-opening come with messaging from the industry saying "expect to pay more, as we're only getting half the income we get in normal times" people would have accepted it as a short term measure - but instead we were so worried about hesitancy that we got Eat Out To Help Out)

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I think the government should be honest now what they expect the world to look like on 19th July. The fact the events research thing is carrying on past that date shows that we definitely won't be free of restrictions, which we knew on here but is still not the messaging. 

So what will change that day? Will they actually remove all social distancing in hospitality, creating thousands of smaller mass gatherings every day without testing? While still not allowing outdoor events with testing that are outside their "research"? 

Doesn't add up... 

Edited by efcfanwirral
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9 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

and in his more pessimistic model for this summer there is no spring 21 wave...

Image

So any more delay could make things worse eventually seems to be what I take from those slides. Will read the full thing later! 

Edited by efcfanwirral
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1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

So we could hit "good summer month" levels by the end of summer then if it carries on as it is 

We could hit fantastic summer month... we wont know until we get there haha

If the rate is slowing we could see a peak soon enough. It's positive anyway. 

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1 minute ago, balthazarstarbuck said:

Which is pretty much in line with expectations as it’s tracking to last weeks case increase slowing (less nice that occupancy is increasing though).

See what today’s case figures are like I guess.

 

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1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

Quite a large rise in cases today from last week 😕

Its been a large increase in cases on last week for the past few days. The fact its kept below that 11k for a few days can be taken as a positive. Means the rate of increase could still be dropping. 

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