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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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21 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

To be fair I forgot that healthcare workers are included in the priority groups. I was just translating it to age and UHC’s.

 

@Toilet Duck is my fag packet maths in any way OK? I calculate 99.6% efficacy against death. 

Not sure about the maths, but while it looks scary that 28% of of people that died had been double vaccinated (if we vaccinate everyone, eventually everybody that dies in the future will have been double vaccinated)...but I think the headline figure here should be that the CFR of this variant in a vaccinated & partially vaccinated population is <0.1% (42 deaths from just over 42,000 cases...obviously, not everyone is out of the woods yet, so the final number remains unknown). Without vaccination, we'd likely still be seeing a CFR north of 2%. Where it is now is round about where seasonal flu is when we vaccinate the vulnerable, so if it holds like this, then this is basically what we have to decide to live with. Looking for reasons why people died is kind of immaterial (with or of is not the point, especially when we don't know all pathologies that the virus can cause), but <0.1% of those that have caught this variant have died (so far) and that's a good thing (relatively speaking). I know younger people are catching it and that changes the CFR, but younger people are catching it because they aren't vaccinated. It's still too early to say that this is the trend, data with so few events is intrinsically noisy, but if it holds, then this is pretty much where we end up (I'm cautious as we had this same discussion back in August/September when cases started to rise and it eventually spilled into the more vulnerable population, so calling it early isn't the best idea, however, vaccinations do change things massively...we'll see over the next while by how much). 

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18 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

The third point is what I was getting at yesterday when saying about regional restrictions/approaches and how these have been totally discarded. It appears that it is no coincidence that my area with high double vaccine uptake (probably due to older population) has some of the lowest rates in the country whereas Bolton/Blackburn have the lowest double vaccine uptake (and first dose uptake) but cases are rocketing.

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25 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Reading that Meaghan Kall thread - it isn't clear still whether delta ~40% or ~60% more transmissable than alpha..so still some uncertainty there.

think the ~60% is increase in household transmission, and ~40% is increase in community transmission. I'm not totally sure about that though.

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2 hours ago, MrBarry465 said:

I've had it and wasn't good but prefer that to blood clots.

The stats I’ve read indicate that 15 people in 3.6million who’ve received the AZ vaccine developed blood clots. That’s a 0.0004% chance. 

As far as I know, that’s a much lower chance than developing serious side effects through Covid, so I’m not sure I follow you? 

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21 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

The third point is what I was getting at yesterday when saying about regional restrictions/approaches and how these have been totally discarded. It appears that it is no coincidence that my area with high double vaccine uptake (probably due to older population) has some of the lowest rates in the country whereas Bolton/Blackburn have the lowest double vaccine uptake (and first dose uptake) but cases are rocketing.

Same in my area we are currently very low with one of the highest vaccination rates …. 

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Just now, crazyfool1 said:

Same in my area we are currently very low with one of the highest vaccination rates …. 

Yeah and you are just up the road from me (Torbay)! Not surprising with the amount of older people down here and, perhaps, a lower amount of ethnic minorities generally more sceptical about the vaccine?

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The later they are leaving it - are we thinking the 21st is more likely to happen?
I mean it would be incredibly silly to wait until Monday if they have known for a few days that a delay is definitely needed. It would give the businesses a couple of additional days to plan ahead, which could be vital for their survival. 

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2 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

Yeah and you are just up the road from me (Torbay)! Not surprising with the amount of older people down here and, perhaps, a lower amount of ethnic minorities generally more sceptical about the vaccine?

It’s struggling to get a grasp … although numbers are starting to rumble upwards the last few days and it doesn’t take long as we know to become a lot larger … also lower population density would be a factor 

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6 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Same in my area we are currently very low with one of the highest vaccination rates …. 

Im in Norfolk and we've apprently got the highest first doses in the country, we do also have an elderly population so lots of take up there I imagine. Also on our local news last night they said fewer people are in hospital with covid in Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex combined than in Bolton 

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2 minutes ago, st dan said:

The later they are leaving it - are we thinking the 21st is more likely to happen?
I mean it would be incredibly silly to wait until Monday if they have known for a few days that a delay is definitely needed. It would give the businesses a couple of additional days to plan ahead, which could be vital for their survival. 

They will wait till mon even if decisions been made … they have set arbitrary dates throughout but we might get some more accurate  leaks from the press over the weekend 

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Just now, Chapple12345 said:

Im in Norfolk and we've apprently got the highest first doses in the country, we do also have an elderly population so lots of take up there I imagine. Also on our local news last night they said fewer people are in hospital with covid in Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex combined than in Bolton 

We have something like 15 in hospital in the whole of the southwest … if memory  serves me correct 

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3 hours ago, MrBarry465 said:

Why should we give a shit about what that lot are doing?

They aren't some sort of societal barometer to aspire to mate. 

Switch on your brain    if a variant is developed there then it will arrive here 

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8 minutes ago, st dan said:

The later they are leaving it - are we thinking the 21st is more likely to happen?
I mean it would be incredibly silly to wait until Monday if they have known for a few days that a delay is definitely needed. It would give the businesses a couple of additional days to plan ahead, which could be vital for their survival. 

I don’t think this is an indication of anything, they keep in saying they’ll let us know on the 14th. Hancock pretty much said yesterday that they’ll make a decision over the weekend.

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28 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

They will wait till mon even if decisions been made … they have set arbitrary dates throughout but we might get some more accurate  leaks from the press over the weekend 

All eyes on Marr. Also, if it’s bad news they’ll slip something out during the England match on Sunday afternoon.

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2 hours ago, DeanoL said:

 

 

Not saying this to score points, but genuinely, to both of you, if it comes to that, get in touch with some of the other parents and make it happen over the school holidays. You can hire a venue and a DJ easily enough. It's not ideal but you don't have to give up on some these things if they're important. 

You miss the point.  Its one more once in a life time thing she has too miss.  How many more?  Just another few more weeks.....

Of course we are mitigating the best we can as we go but she has been expecting and looking forward to a certain event now for her entire school years and its being robbed.  We can mitigate but it won't be the same.  

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