Kusy Posted June 11, 2021 Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steviewevie Posted June 11, 2021 Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, Kusy said: 12 out 42 who were fully vaccinated doesn't sound that good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmillen Posted June 11, 2021 Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Kusy said: It would be useful to know more about those 12 who sadly died despite being fully vaccinated - i.e. were they very elderly, did they have pre-existing conditions etc. Also would be interested to see a comparison with the fatality rates from the regular variant following 2nd vaccinations. This doesn't look like good news, but without context it's hard to judge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philipsteak Posted June 11, 2021 Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 Raise the drawbridge! Man the barricades! https://news.cumbria.gov.uk/News/2021/deltavariantpromptscumbriacovidcalltoaction.aspx (I think a lot of Cumbrians, especially if they aren't involved on tourism, would quite like to do that anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuzzy Afro Posted June 11, 2021 Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Kusy said: 12 deaths out of 42 suggests fantastic efficacy. Pre-vaccinations, around 99% of the deaths would have been amongst people in the groups who’ve been offered two vaccines. 30 people who have not been fully vaccinated have died. In pre-vaccine times that would mean that 2,970 people in the vulnerable groups would have died (the 30 would make up 1% of total deaths). That suggests that having two doses is 99.6% effective against death from the Indian variant. Vaccines work 🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuzzy Afro Posted June 11, 2021 Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 1 minute ago, steviewevie said: 12 out 42 who were fully vaccinated doesn't sound that good... Just now, jimmillen said: It would be useful to know more about those 12 who sadly died despite being fully vaccinated - i.e. were they very elderly, did they have pre-existing conditions etc. Also would be interested to see a comparison with the fatality rates from the regular variant following 2nd vaccinations. This doesn't look like good news, but without context it's hard to judge. No, 12/42 is VERY good news. In normal times the fully vaccinated would make up 99% of deaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuartbert two hats Posted June 11, 2021 Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 1 hour ago, MrBarry465 said: Getting my jab today, but if I was offered az I would walk out. Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmillen Posted June 11, 2021 Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said: No, 12/42 is VERY good news. In normal times the fully vaccinated would make up 99% of deaths. I'm not sure I'm following you here. Are you basing that on the assumption that those fully vaccinated were in JCVI groups 1-9, and those who aren't were not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuzzy Afro Posted June 11, 2021 Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 Just now, jimmillen said: I'm not sure I'm following you here. Are you basing that on the assumption that those fully vaccinated were in JCVI groups 1-9, and those who aren't were not? Roughly, yes. I believe the rollout is at the point now where those in group 9 are getting their second dose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuzzy Afro Posted June 11, 2021 Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 It’s fag-packet maths but my logic is the people who’ve been offered their second dose would usually make up a HUGE proportion of those dying from covid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efcfanwirral Posted June 11, 2021 Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, steviewevie said: 12 out 42 who were fully vaccinated doesn't sound that good... 2 minutes ago, jimmillen said: It would be useful to know more about those 12 who sadly died despite being fully vaccinated - i.e. were they very elderly, did they have pre-existing conditions etc. Also would be interested to see a comparison with the fatality rates from the regular variant following 2nd vaccinations. This doesn't look like good news, but without context it's hard to judge. 1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said: 12 deaths out of 42 suggests fantastic efficacy. Pre-vaccinations, around 99% of the deaths would have been amongst people in the groups who’ve been offered two vaccines. 30 people who have not been fully vaccinated have died. In pre-vaccine times that would mean that 2,970 people in the vulnerable groups would have died (the 30 would make up 1% of total deaths). That suggests that having two doses is 99.6% effective against death from the Indian variant. Vaccines work 🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻 Indeed its exactly what we'd expect And this sort of information coming out NOW not in the autumn is helpful to manage people's expectations on all this I think many (not here, just in general) believe that nobody who has had two vaccines will die from this and that could lead to all sorts of panic later in the year when it's proven less than accurate. Seeing that sort of figure now could offset that reaction, and fits in with Chris whitty's "acceptable number of deaths" and "living with it like flu" comments. Watch the twitter panic at that figure over the next few hours though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmillen Posted June 11, 2021 Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said: Roughly, yes. I believe the rollout is at the point now where those in group 9 are getting their second dose. Gotcha. That's kind of what I was getting at saying to be meaningful, we need to know the demographics of those who have died after double vaccinations. If indeed they were all in highly vulnerable groups, then I agree - it's not bad news at all. OTOH, if it includes young, previously healthy NHS workers or similar then it might be very bad. Thankfully whilst we might not have the data, hopefully those making the decisions will do...! Edited June 11, 2021 by jimmillen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuzzy Afro Posted June 11, 2021 Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 The vaccines have saved over 2,900 lives since the Indian variant arrived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuzzy Afro Posted June 11, 2021 Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 Just now, jimmillen said: Gotcha. That's kind of what I was getting at saying to be meaningful, we need to know the demographics of those who have died after double vaccinations. If indeed they were all in highly vulnerable groups, then I agree - it's not bad news at all. OTOH, if it includes previously healthy NHS workers or similar then it might be very bad. Thankfully whilst we might not have the data, hopefully those making the decisions will do...! To be fair I forgot that healthcare workers are included in the priority groups. I was just translating it to age and UHC’s. @Toilet Duck is my fag packet maths in any way OK? I calculate 99.6% efficacy against death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrBarry465 Posted June 11, 2021 Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 Potentially have to cancel my vaccination for later today, but I've gone onto the 'manage booking' area of the NHS website and am getting the following message: If you want to cancel your appointments you will have to come back tomorrow to cancel and rebook. That seems bonkers, surely they would prefer I cancel before the appointment rather than afterwards? Anybody else had this issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Matador Posted June 11, 2021 Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 11 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said: No, 12/42 is VERY good news. In normal times the fully vaccinated would make up 99% of deaths. Worth remembering that dying within 28 days of a positive covid test is not the same as dying because of covid as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efcfanwirral Posted June 11, 2021 Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, El Matador said: Worth remembering that dying within 28 days of a positive covid test is not the same as dying because of covid as well. This is true - at such small numbers even a handful of these can muddy the waters a lot Hopefully that new way of counting hospitalisations (whether they're ill with it or just tested positive) will extend to death figures as well Edited June 11, 2021 by efcfanwirral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steviewevie Posted June 11, 2021 Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 60% apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Havors Posted June 11, 2021 Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 18 minutes ago, Kusy said: I still struggle with the wording and the difference between with and because of... Those 12 people could have died of say heart failure and just had a positive test while in hospital? I wish they would determine the difference.... especially when the numbers are so low and the difference is of more significance than ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steviewevie Posted June 11, 2021 Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 Nepal variant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steviewevie Posted June 11, 2021 Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 Good thread on the latest PHE data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zoo Music Girl Posted June 11, 2021 Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 (edited) Another question on those 12 deaths- did they die within two weeks of being fully vaccinated? Or did they contract it without two weeks of being fully vaccinated? If the former (which is how I read it) then the protection from the second won't have kicked in yet. Edited June 11, 2021 by Zoo Music Girl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steviewevie Posted June 11, 2021 Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 Reading that Meaghan Kall thread - it isn't clear still whether delta ~40% or ~60% more transmissable than alpha..so still some uncertainty there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zahidf Posted June 11, 2021 Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efcfanwirral Posted June 11, 2021 Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Havors said: I still struggle with the wording and the difference between with and because of... Those 12 people could have died of say heart failure and just had a positive test while in hospital? I wish they would determine the difference.... especially when the numbers are so low and the difference is of more significance than ever. And then there's a chance covid has caused the issues that led to their deaths (heart issues, strokes etc) despite them maybe no longer being positive, so that's a middle ground too. More nuanced statistics are definitely needed! Edited June 11, 2021 by efcfanwirral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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