When will this shit end?

[incident]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I used Bolton to show that their rising hospital admissions did lead to comparable levels of patients on ventilators from other peaks. It wasn’t necessarily the specific number but highlighting the trend as others were quick to use Bolton as their example of something that might happen nationally. 

Levels of patients on ventilators, at least without some context and at such a low level, isn't a metric that means anything though.

If all 12 of those patients are fully vaccinated - then we've got a problem.

If all 12 of those patients are in Groups 1 to 4 but refused a vaccine, then we really don't and it's a meaningless number.

Obviously the reality won't be either of those extremes - but I'm pretty confident it'll be much closer to the latter than the former.

Edited June 10, 2021 by incident

[Barry Fish]

4 minutes ago, jimmillen said:

Yes, inevitably people will die, and yes any grown up discussion about public health will be about how many and how this is managed rather than trying to pretend it’s  zero. 

That is not at all the same fucking thing as saying you don’t give a shit if people die.

Either you have a serious and worrying lack of basic human empathy, or you were trying to say something provocative for reactions. I wonder which one it is. 

Pretty sure lots of people died today.  Did you care ? You lieing if you say yes.  Bet you just had a coffee and slice of toast and cracked on.

Edited June 10, 2021 by Barry Fish

[efcfanwirral]

 

[Barry Fish]

1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

Lmao unbelievable bollocks  🤣

[jimmillen]

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

Pretty sure lots of people died today.  Did you care ? You living if you say yes.  Bet you just had a coffee and slice of toast and cracked on.

Put the fishing rod away Bazza, I might have taken a bite of the bait but I’m not going to play this tired little game. 

More fool me for responding at all I guess. 

[Ozanne]

6 minutes ago, incident said:

Levels of patients on ventilators, at least without some context and at such a low level, isn't a metric that means anything though.

If all 12 of those patients are fully vaccinated - then we've got a problem.

If all 12 of those patients are in Groups 1 to 4 but refused a vaccine, then we really don't and it's a meaningless number.

Obviously the reality won't be either of those extremes - but I'm pretty confident it'll be much closer to the latter than the former.

No it’s not meaningless, if we are talking about opening up more yet patients can still go into ventilators at comparable levels then of course it’s relevant. If enough people aren’t fully vaccinated then we could end up with a decent amount of people in ventilators again. You can’t use the hospital argument to say everything is fine and ignore it when data shows things might not be 100% fine. 

Please note I’m not saying things will get bad just there’s a chance that they might.

[Barry Fish]

Just now, jimmillen said:

Put the fishing rod away Bazza, I might have taken a bite of the bait but I’m not going to play this tired little game. 

More fool me for responding at all I guess. 

😆 stop taking the mickey mouse sunshine 🌞

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

9 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I’ve gone through it many times in my other posts if you want to see why that isn’t necessarily a definite yet. 

Cases will probably always lead to hospitalisations. What's the conversion rate? 

If people are scared let them stay at home. These youngsters have out their lives on hold long enough if they want to live now let them.

[jimmillen]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

Please note I’m not saying things will get bad just there’s a chance that they might.

A whole lot of folk are very determined to ignore this nuance aren’t they. 🙄

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

3 minutes ago, jimmillen said:

A whole lot of folk are very determined to ignore this nuance aren’t they. 🙄

There is a chance things get worse on the other hand it's locked in that the longer restrictions are in place more businesses close for good.

[BobWillis2]

9 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

Let’s keep restrictions going when most people get....a headache? 
 

What the fuck is going on. 

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

20 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Surely they still do but at much lower levels ? 

Exactly! It's all about the conversion rate. 

[Ozanne]

The situation has worsened in the NW recently. 

[Toilet Duck]

6 minutes ago, BobWillis2 said:

Let’s keep restrictions going when most people get....a headache? 
 

What the fuck is going on. 

Would ya like a mint? 

[BobWillis2]

1 minute ago, Toilet Duck said:

Would ya like a mint? 

I know you meant to type pint really x 

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

The situation has worsened in the NW recently. 

Have you looked at the Y axis?

[jimmillen]

2 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

There is a chance things get worse on the other hand it's locked in that the longer restrictions are in place more businesses close for good.

I totally get that and have massive sympathy for businesses trying to survive through this. I know many haven’t succeeded. 😔

But none of this is black and white. No easy answers. If things do get seriously worse, then haven’t the past 3 lockdowns shown us that businesses suffer more in the long run from the absence of swift, decisive action?

There are potential negatives from any choice that could be made on the 21st. I’d be over the moon if we can open up without things getting worse! I just hope the government are genuinely led by the data this time around. 

[incident]

5 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

No it’s not meaningless, if we are talking about opening up more yet patients can still go into ventilators at comparable levels then of course it’s relevant. If enough people aren’t fully vaccinated then we could end up with a decent amount of people in ventilators again. You can’t use the hospital argument to say everything is fine and ignore it when data shows things might not be 100% fine. 

Please note I’m not saying things will get bad just there’s a chance that they might.

There's a chance that they might get that bad? Of course - there's a chance of lots of different things. But decisions need to be taken on the balance of probabilities, not just on the off-chance that the worst case scenario comes along - and even those numbers taken in isolation don't show that the NHS is anywhere near at risk of being overwhelmed - they show less patients on ventilators than previously, despite there having been higher daily infections in the current wave.

Context is important. If that small number does (and I strongly suspect this will be the case) consist mostly of people in Groups 1-4 or even 1-9 that aren't fully vaccinated, then to be very blunt about it - we absolutely should not wait on them. Those groups have all had the chance to be fully vaccinated by now, and while it's absolutely an individuals prerogative to refuse a vaccine, society shouldn't be restricting life elsewhere to compensate for that. We of course should encourage them to catch up, and if they want to do so then great - but in the meantime any risk is one they've taken on themselves.

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, jimmillen said:

I totally get that and have massive sympathy for businesses trying to survive through this. I know many haven’t succeeded. 😔

But none of this is black and white. No easy answers. If things do get seriously worse, then haven’t the past 3 lockdowns shown us that businesses suffer more in the long run from the absence of swift, decisive action?

There are potential negatives from any choice that could be made on the 21st. I’d be over the moon if we can open up without things getting worse! I just hope the government are genuinely led by the data this time around. 

Let's see what happens. If they delay 2 weeks for more jabs I'd understand. Going backwards or keeping it open ended is a definite no no

[efcfanwirral]

3 minutes ago, jimmillen said:

I totally get that and have massive sympathy for businesses trying to survive through this. I know many haven’t succeeded. 😔

But none of this is black and white. No easy answers. If things do get seriously worse, then haven’t the past 3 lockdowns shown us that businesses suffer more in the long run from the absence of swift, decisive action?

There are potential negatives from any choice that could be made on the 21st. I’d be over the moon if we can open up without things getting worse! I just hope the government are genuinely led by the data this time around. 

It's all about interpretation of the data. If "going up" is the criteria then it'll be longer than 2-4 weeks 

[Barry Fish]

17 minutes ago, BobWillis2 said:

Let’s keep restrictions going when most people get....a headache? 
 

What the fuck is going on. 

We just hit the summit of Mount crazy 🤪

[Toilet Duck]

7 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Would ya like a mint? 

😁 a pint would be nice alright, first weekend of July I have my name on a nice creamy Guinness! The mint thing was a Catherine Tate reference though, Nan at the doctors…it’s the stock response on our house when anyone says they have a headache! 
 

 

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

6 minutes ago, jimmillen said:

I totally get that and have massive sympathy for businesses trying to survive through this. I know many haven’t succeeded. 😔

But none of this is black and white. No easy answers. If things do get seriously worse, then haven’t the past 3 lockdowns shown us that businesses suffer more in the long run from the absence of swift, decisive action?

There are potential negatives from any choice that could be made on the 21st. I’d be over the moon if we can open up without things getting worse! I just hope the government are genuinely led by the data this time around. 

Totally but at the moment there is plenty of flex left in the health service, were playing a different ball game to earlier in the year. A small delay would be tolerable but we have to be very careful that we don't forget there is an acceptable level of risk and unfortunately there is a tolerable level of hospitalisations and death - like there are with many illnesses.  

[Barry Fish]

Well just about to call it a night at my week at haven.  Full dance floors of kids having the crack, parents largely behaving although masks probably at 50%.  Let's see if the kids all die in the coming week. Mine just won seaside squad teddies and are happy as I have seen them in around 15 months.  Life largely normally for them for the first time in a long time.  No bubbles, no bollocks running around with holiday friends.

Sure they will be fine. 

[Ozanne]

3 minutes ago, incident said:

There's a chance that they might get that bad? Of course - there's a chance of lots of different things. But decisions need to be taken on the balance of probabilities, not just on the off-chance that the worst case scenario comes along - and even those numbers taken in isolation don't show that the NHS is anywhere near at risk of being overwhelmed - they show less patients on ventilators than previously, despite there having been higher daily infections in the current wave.

Context is important. If that small number does (and I strongly suspect this will be the case) consist mostly of people in Groups 1-4 or even 1-9 that aren't fully vaccinated, then to be very blunt about it - we absolutely should not wait on them. Those groups have all had the chance to be fully vaccinated by now, and while it's absolutely an individuals prerogative to refuse a vaccine, society shouldn't be restricting life elsewhere to compensate for that. We of course should encourage them to catch up, and if they want to do so then great - but in the meantime any risk is one they've taken on themselves.

It probably isn’t that group as others have said the bulk of admissions are the younger cohort which would indicate younger patients are on ventilators potentially, feel free to find that info out though if you fancy.

I said it earlier but if all we need is a few weeks delay to get a much larger amount fully vaccinated then we should go for it. Because right now with step 3 cases are rising exponentially, hospitalisations are rising even before you would expect them too and in the area that saw this weeks ago patients on mechanical ventilators went up to comparable levels as before. It’s only a few weeks, we should take this opportunity to protect as many as possible whilst government support is still there.

June 21st isn’t a cut off for businesses to go under, I work in financial services and the date period that we expect hardship to fall on businesses is actually the Autumn when government support is schedule to stop. So with that support still available at present we have some scope to delay things.