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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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1 hour ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Nah, the growth in some areas is absolutely huge, it spread from Bolton to the rest of Manchester, it's likely to spread to the rest of the country given how far we are from double dosing everyone.  There would still be massive questions about June 21st. As Fuzz says, the numbers are now suggesting tightening, not relaxation - irrespective of whether it's irreversible.

Absolutely huge is a stretch. Nothing suggests we should be tightening restrictions as there's no threat to the NHS 

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2 hours ago, incident said:

You should be able to move it to 8 weeks, subject to availability in your area - just go on the NHS booking site and take a look - though you'll have to first cancel your existing appointment if it's booked through them.

I booked just standard through nhs online when my age group came up.

 Is there a big risk it could end up not having any appointments and the delaying it further? It's AZ/ Oxford. 

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8 minutes ago, Rex2 said:

Absolutely huge is a stretch. Nothing suggests we should be tightening restrictions as there's no threat to the NHS 

In terms of the growth rate, it's been pretty big. I've added yesterday's and a few days ago, when in % terms, huge was no stretch. Isn't now really. 

Remember when it's exponential growth, the rate of increase is the thing to watch - absolute numbers can stay small for ages - until they're suddenly massive. 

Edit: Stockport doubled in five days.

0_Greater-Manchester-Wednesday-9-June-2021.jpg

 

0_Greater-Manchester-Friday-4th-June-2021.png

Edited by stuartbert two hats
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On 6/6/2021 at 9:58 AM, Copperface said:

So, when everyone is fully vaccinated then.

Vaccination is being opened up to the under 30s from this week, says the health secretary.

The government is getting "a step closer" to the point all adults are offered a vaccine, he says.

When everyone has had two doses, the wider population will have the protection we now see older adults have.

Then we can "get out of this" and "restore freedoms", he says.

My 24 year old kid got told it's over 25s only not everyone under 30.

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15 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

My nephew and his girlfriend have got it, both mid 20s. She's quite ill apparently. Both not been jabbed yet.

What symptoms do they have?

I saw something earlier saying that symptoms of the delta variant tended to be less respiratory based and more headaches, sore throat etc.

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43 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

In terms of the growth rate, it's been pretty big. I've added yesterday's and a few days ago, when in % terms, huge was no stretch. Isn't now really. 

Remember when it's exponential growth, the rate of increase is the thing to watch - absolute numbers can stay small for ages - until they're suddenly massive. 

Edit: Stockport doubled in five days.

0_Greater-Manchester-Wednesday-9-June-2021.jpg

 

0_Greater-Manchester-Friday-4th-June-2021.png

Stockport has doubled because of the amount of Man City fans from this area who went to Portugal.....

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My work colleague with no health issues in has just recovered after 10 days of the Delta variant. He said it was the worst illness he has suffered in 50 years of life. He caught it via his wife who is a teacher and two kids impacted too. Spread to all of them within 24 hours.

Just to add both him and his wife were fully vaccinated about a month ago.

Edited by she bangs the drums
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48 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

In terms of the growth rate, it's been pretty big. I've added yesterday's and a few days ago, when in % terms, huge was no stretch. Isn't now really. 

Remember when it's exponential growth, the rate of increase is the thing to watch - absolute numbers can stay small for ages - until they're suddenly massive. 

Edit: Stockport doubled in five days.

0_Greater-Manchester-Wednesday-9-June-2021.jpg

Still not huge numbers currently although I see your point about the exponential growth. Still it's only cases. I'll take note if hospitalisation start doubling 

Edited by Rex2
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3 minutes ago, she bangs the drums said:

My work colleague with no health issues in has just recovered after 10 days of the Delta variant. He said it was the worst illness he has suffered in 50 years of life. He caught it via his wife who is a teacher and two kids impacted too. Spread to all of them within 24 hours.

Just to add both him and his wife were fully vaccinated about a month ago.

Woah. If he's 50 he probably had AZ.

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2 minutes ago, she bangs the drums said:

My work colleague with no health issues in has just recovered after 10 days of the Delta variant. He said it was the worst illness he has suffered in 50 years of life. He caught it via his wife who is a teacher and two kids impacted too. Spread to all of them within 24 hours.

Just to add both him and his wife were fully vaccinated about a month ago.

Thats the bit though. Are we going for no hospitalisations (which im hoping none of your mate's family ended with) but accept that it can be hideous but something you ultimately get over. 

I'm  old school. I much preferred its early stuff and had it last april (2020) . Wouldn't wish it on anyone .

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31 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

In terms of the growth rate, it's been pretty big. I've added yesterday's and a few days ago, when in % terms, huge was no stretch. Isn't now really. 

Remember when it's exponential growth, the rate of increase is the thing to watch - absolute numbers can stay small for ages - until they're suddenly massive. 

Edit: Stockport doubled in five days.

0_Greater-Manchester-Wednesday-9-June-2021.jpg

 

0_Greater-Manchester-Friday-4th-June-2021.png

But you're obsessing over daily case numbers - and as yet despite hearing these dire warnings for over a month now about how it'll hit Hospitals soon, there's no indication that those numbers are translating into more than a small increase in Hospital admissions (Nationally at least still below the predicted best case scenario) - and certainly nowhere the "unsustainable pressure" that's supposed to be the benchmark.

Granted, I realise that it takes a couple weeks for a rise in cases to really show itself in Hospitalisations, but the few areas we do have high cases for more than a couple weeks (like Bolton), the Hospitalisations have risen slightly, hit a peak a fraction of the previous waves. The stories coming out of those areas are that the people being admitted are likely not vaccinated and also far less severe cases than the previous waves.

To be clear. here's 2 months worth of Patients in Hospital data for the North West region (lagging a couple days, but it's close enough to current):

image.thumb.png.be926c081204779f39eefe506affda70.png

And for Bolton specifically:

image.thumb.png.17d3cd9ee5d31302c58f70afc3adbb46.png

I'm not even being selective with the data here - if I set it to a longer date range then those recent/current peaks would soon be dwarfed - even that peak in Bolton is less than a third of the numbers they were getting in any of the three previous peaks (March 2020, November 2020, or January 2020), and still below what they had as recently as mid-March. For the North West overall the current number is less than a tenth of the January peak.

I've said it before but it frustrates me - we're doing fine. The increase in numbers are in line with prediction and for all the graphs plotting straight lines of growth in cases, I've yet to see anyone make a vaguely convincing case that it's going to hit the NHS hard.

This reminds me a bit the US election, when many statisticians predicted going in that Trump would likely be ahead in certain states on the night, but that Biden would overtake him once postal votes were counted - yet when that exact scenario played out as predicted, people went into panic mode as soon as Trump was ahead and thought that all was lost.

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19 minutes ago, she bangs the drums said:

My work colleague with no health issues in has just recovered after 10 days of the Delta variant. He said it was the worst illness he has suffered in 50 years of life. He caught it via his wife who is a teacher and two kids impacted too. Spread to all of them within 24 hours.

Just to add both him and his wife were fully vaccinated about a month ago.

Winter should be fun then

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