When will this shit end?

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

The live with covid thing...ventilation etc, how they going to do all that with indoor venues for nightclubs and gigs etc? A lot of those places wouldn't be able to have very good ventilation I imagine. Or is the thinking it will be tests and/or proof of vaccine.

You can have a good mimumum ventilation system at a cost.

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

Yeah I think they’ll go that route with certification essentially.

It’s interesting that they are considering WFH remaining after July 19th. 

WFH being encouraged is a no brained really. Easy enough to do with and going along existing trends.

[steviewevie]

Need more outdoor raves....and people will just have to wrap up warm in the winter.

[Havors]

1 hour ago, mcshed said:

If 5% of cases produce hospitalisations and cases are doubling every couple of weeks, then hospitalisations will double every couple of weeks which left unchecked will become an issue. Exponential's going to get you.

If we have 6000 cases a day and cases are doubling every 2 weeks then the difference between 10% and 5% is just two weeks.

6000 cases 600 hospitalisations without vaccine 300 hospitalisations with vaccine

2 weeks later

12000 cases 1200 or 600 hospitalisations

24000 cases 2400 or 1200

48000 cases 4800 or 2400

So if 10% is enough to overwhelm the NHS then 5% will do so two weeks later.

 

 

 

You are not taking into account any ceiling on cases/hospitalisations due to vaccines. Your calculations only work if we assume the everyone can still catch covid and has a chance of hosptialisation. 

There will come a point where you hit a ceiling... You will never be seeing 24k or 48k cases ever again I think personally. 

[JoeyT]

This is good news. From a letter to vaccination sites dated 15th June. They are sorting the vaccine booking website so that you don't have to cancel your 2nd dose appointment in order to see if there is one sooner:

Quote

Work is expected to be completed shortly so that patients that wish to rebook are able to check the level of appointment availability on the NBS before cancelling and rescheduling their existing second dose appointment.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/wp-content/uploads/sites/52/2021/06/C1324-Letter-to-vaccination-sites-15-June-2021.pdf

[Euphoricape]

I cancelled my 2nd jab appointment for July 5th last night, and was able to book in for this Friday morning! 

[MrBarry465]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

Yeah I think they’ll go that route with certification essentially.

It’s interesting that they are considering WFH remaining after July 19th. 

From my anecdotal evidence most companies I know of, mine included are just givbing people the optioon of whether they go back to the office or not. 

There was anticipated to be a mass migration of people back to offices, I think in part due to landlord pressure in London - but I feel they lost this battle.

[kalifire]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

WFH being encouraged is a no brained really. Easy enough to do with and going along existing trends.

The PM here in Australia recently announced that it's "time for Australians to get back to the office", at the same time as only 2% of the country was vaccinated, due to his complete mishandling of the vaccination rollout. You can imagine how well that went down.

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, kalifire said:

The PM here in Australia recently announced that it's "time for Australians to get back to the office", at the same time as only 2% of the country was vaccinated, due to his complete mishandling of the vaccination rollout. You can imagine how well that went down.

Does he have any fingers in building leasing company pies?

[Zoo Music Girl]

My partner also managed to pull his second jab forward, from August 5th to July 22nd. He is under 40 too.

[steviewevie]

I think this mandatory vaccines for care home staff thing could end up in court.

[MrBarry465]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I think this mandatory vaccines for care home staff thing could end up in court.

Crazy that it even gets to that point.

Absolute w*nkers working with the elderly and refusing to get a vaccine ffs....

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Probably will but it will be thrown out.  There is precedent with doctors and hep B vaccine.

It's not just doctors with hep b the requirement is to more staff than just them.

[zahidf]

13 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/15/pfizer-shortage-could-derail-july-19-target-covid-vaccine-rollout/

"Unless the Government can deliver the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines in the right numbers, it's hard to see how we could safely unlock on July 19 – and that goes for the whole country," he told The Telegraph.

Have we set a target we can't hit ?   Looks like a supply is about to become a real issue.

thats the birmingham major isnt it?

He probably doesnt have the ear of Boris tbh

[Euphoricape]

17 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

How many weeks gap and which vaccine ?

Astra zenica vaccine. Had my first April 19th, so will be roughly 8 weeks. I'm 45.

[incident]

4 hours ago, Gregfc15 said:

Bit unfair to accuse someone of being selective with data when you’ve turned up 2 weeks late to the conversation.

Twitter is not a conversation. By definition it's a series of statements that stand alone.

That's why providing context within those statements should be a minimum expectation / responsibility.

[Copperface]

33 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I think this mandatory vaccines for care home staff thing could end up in court.

ECHR precedent here as well.

Mainly in relation to vaccination of children but one of the relevant rulings refers to a school refusing admission to an unvaccinated child and ECHR backed that. That's direct case law for care workers I would think. 

The actual document outlining the ruling is quite detailed but this article condenses it nicely.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56669397

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/app/conversion/pdf/%3Flibrary%3DECHR%26id%3D003-6989051-9414707%26filename%3DGrand%20Chamber%20judgment%20Vavricka%20and%20Others%20v.%20Czech%20Republic%20-%20obligation%20to%20vaccinate%20children%20against%20diseases%20that%20were%20well%20known%20to%20medical%20science.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjloPer5JvxAhVN8BQKHRw1C_kQFjAAegQIAxAC&usg=AOvVaw1x9OD90OlTQZTvOjRxiPbq

Edited June 16, 2021 by Copperface

[Cherry Tree]

12 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Cool - I am already at 8 weeks and going next week - was wondering if I could sneak it in earlier lol 😄 

They are not keen on doing AZ at less than eight weeks, even the volunteers and admin staff at the vaccination centres had to wait eight weeks, even when there was spare doses at the end of shift. One of the medical staff said that the studies of those vaccinated January to April showed eight weeks was optimum for 2nd dose.

[stuartbert two hats]

22 minutes ago, incident said:

Twitter is not a conversation. By definition it's a series of statements that stand alone.

That's why providing context within those statements should be a minimum expectation / responsibility.

Each tweet is also 280 characters.  I was never confused as to what his point was.  He's mentioned several times about the relationship being changed, but still a relationship.  He's been perfectly responsible.

EDIT: And I'd love to see where you're getting that definition of Twitter from.

Edited June 16, 2021 by stuartbert two hats

[efcfanwirral]

54 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/15/pfizer-shortage-could-derail-july-19-target-covid-vaccine-rollout/

"Unless the Government can deliver the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines in the right numbers, it's hard to see how we could safely unlock on July 19 – and that goes for the whole country," he told The Telegraph.

Have we set a target we can't hit ?   Looks like a supply is about to become a real issue.

 

39 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Fair point - but the drum is already being beaten by a few on July 19th not happening...  drip drip drip...

They wouldn't be blaming supply issues either

But really if we're just completing 18 year olds by then is that a reason to hold the whole country up? 

[DeanoL]

 

16 hours ago, Copperface said:

I have no idea if that'll be the case but Gove was asked this morning if he could guarantee that 19th July would mean the lifting of all restrictions. He would only reply that they were determined to move to step 4, which is quite different.

No-one can give a guarantee as we can't know for certain what a novel virus would do. If there's a new mutation, or some unexpected complication or whatever. It probably won't happen. But expecting a guarantee is silly because there's no way you can compel the virus to do what you want.

I mean the absolute worst case scenario is that a new variant appears that is more infections, vaccine resistant, and much more deadly. Would you still support reopening in that case? If the answer is "no" then that's why the government can't give a guarantee. Because even if it looks really likely, there's no certainty in stuff like this.

15 hours ago, balthazarstarbuck said:

Which does detract from the “THIS IS A GIANT GLOBAL CONSPIRACY TO KEEP US ALL LOCKED UP!” brigade.

Good times are around the corner.

I'm sure the conspiracy theorists will be absolutely fine about the fact that Israel is the only country without restrictions. Can't see them having any issues with that whatsoever.

[DeanoL]

 

14 hours ago, incident said:

To be honest I don't have a lot of (or any, really) patience for people (on all sides) getting pedantic over what "broken" means. And now I'm going to disgust myself by (kind of) doing just that.

The link as was is clearly broken and has been since about mid-March and I think that's what most people would generally use it to mean. You can indeed still use cases to predict hospitalisations, but it's not the same link as before - with the important additional caveat that the hospitalisations we are seeing are far less severe and reportedly wouldn't have been admitted when the NHS was busy.

The first wave saw 25,000 excess deaths in private homes and another 25,000 excess deaths in care homes. "Wouldn't have been admitted to hospital in the first wave" should not be something that's aspirational.

13 hours ago, incident said:

In this case that wasn't the graph he was showing.. He was showing how Cases translate to Hospitalisations and therefore the link wasn't broken.

Which is fine except that it would have been more responsible to show that while a link still exists it's dramatically changed compared to ~5 months ago.

Depends what question you're trying to answer. If it's "are the vaccines working?" or "are we in a better place that six months ago?" then yeah. If it's "What are the chance of 19 July going ahead?" or "what will hospitalisation rates look like in a month?" then data from five months ago isn't relevant at all.

[DeanoL]

10 hours ago, zahidf said:

 

Surely the NHS must employ a large number of back office and admin staff in their 20s? They would still have been technically eligible for the vaccine earlier on as NHS workers, but I can also see them ethically wanting to wait until their age group came up? Or not wanting AZ once the news about complications came out.

 

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Surely the NHS must employ a large number of back office and admin staff in their 20s? They would still have been technically eligible for the vaccine earlier on as NHS workers, but I can also see them ethically wanting to wait until their age group came up? Or not wanting AZ once the news about complications came out.

 

That wouldnt account for a lot of the hesitancy. Certainly not 10% and in certain ethinic groups

[zahidf]

16 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

They wouldn't be blaming supply issues either

But really if we're just completing 18 year olds by then is that a reason to hold the whole country up? 

I see that specific quote as the Birmingham Major exaggerating a little to get more vaccine supply